Simulating the NBA Playoffs with NBA 2K13 - SteveM's Blog

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Simulating the NBA Playoffs with NBA 2K13

Posted on April 25, 2013 at 12:17 PM.

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Now that we're wading hip-deep into the first round of the NBA Playoffs, it seems like a good time to run a couple simulations down with NBA 2K13. So I seeded the playoffs just as they are, including up-to-date injuries as of right now�that is, no David Lee, no Kobe, no Derrick Rose. I simmed 12 minute quarters and turned injuries off, figuring that although injuries might happen in real life, allowing them to happen in the sim might throw things way off.

The broad results favor the Miami Heat, which is not surprising. Out of 10 simulations, the Heat won their second championship in a row in 6 of them. The Thunder won it all in 3 of them and the Spurs played the spoiler in one of the simulations. Although I can definitely see the Spurs beating the Lakers, I'm skeptical about their ability to best Denver and then the Clippers and then the Heat as they did in that particular simulation.

But there were some other interesting wrinkles. In the real world, the Bulls-Nets series is tied at 1-1, but in every simulation I ran, the Bulls won that series, often pretty handily and without Derrick Rose. Seems extra-fishy given how the Nets have always seemed to get a mildly suspicious and possibly Jay-Z-related bump when I've played against them in Association mode.

Memphis only pulled out a series victory over the Clippers twice in the 10 simulations. With the Clippers up 2-0 on them in the real world, it will be interesting to see if Memphis' vaunted defense (which was 1st in the NBA in defensive rating at home in the regular season) will kick in and slow the game down. If they can't, it will probably look video game-ish and the simulations' prediction will look good.

NBA 2K13 also seems to really like both teams in the 2-7 matchup in the East, the Knicks and the Celtics. The Knicks made it to the Conference Finals 7 out of 10 times and Boston made it twice. That means that the winner of the Atlanta-Indiana series was bounced in the semi-finals in all but one simulation, and in that one, Indiana made it only to be bounced by the Heat.

Narrowing it down to the most likely Final matchup�a rematch of OKC and MIA�the Heat beat the Thunder 4 times out of 6, although several of the simulations had the Finals a lot more tightly contested than last year, with three of them going seven games.

A hard-fought seven game series between those two teams is about the best a hoops fan can hope for, so let's hope the simulations hold true.