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Old 05-09-2012, 04:07 AM   #549
Narcizo
Pro Rookie
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
So there are some obvious directions to look today.

1) Raiders Army to find out if we were villager-wolf or villager-villager yesterday.
2) Day one and day two Jackal voters.
3) Bhlloy for his vote switch.
4) Marc Vaughan for not having a vote either day.

1) I'm not a huge fan of lynching the #2 candidate - I think it can lead you up a big blind alley. There's also the risk that the seer has scanned him leading to a wasted scan or, worse, the seer involuntarily revealing himself to protect him if he's a villager/out him if he's a wolf.

2) Given the uncertainty of the value of day one, particularly in terms of pure voting patterns I don't really see much in the way of logic of concentrating on the four who voted Jackal day one.

3) Don't see a huge amount of point chasing Bhlloy at this stage. If Raiders is a villager then the vote switch earns Bhlloy a decent portion of trust. If Raiders is a wolf then it seems like a very ballsy move for Bhlloy to make as a wolf. Something to bear in mind but not something to chase today I don't think.

4) Yeah, missing two votes isn't great. Particularly when combined with a self-vote, self-unvote combo. Meta-gamery tells me that MV is more likely to be a villager than not but I would like to be able to prod him into action. And a vote that actually sticks.

Vote Marc Vaughan
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