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Originally Posted by Flasch186
I think we’re closer to ww3 than you know.
If the images and video coming out get more deplorable you could see a real public outcry to do “something” and our attempts, whether right or wrong, to toe the line increases the chances of a ‘mistakes’ being made.
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There's a really good chance we're already in what the history books will call WW3. I doubt that people living in October 1939 really thought they were in WW2, but a regional European war. But it's widely regarded WW2 starts with Germany invades Poland.
The mostly likely way that doesn't happen is, of course, if Russia is rolled back and/or Putin killed. If Russia succeeds in rolling over Ukraine, maybe this isn't actively WW3, but it's probably akin to the 1938 and 1939 runup with Germany annexing Austria, et al. If not, then we'll be talking about Georgia and Crimea as those things.
It's also why I don't think it matters all that much what the US does with regards to, say, the MiGs from Poland. The die is already cast - we don't have a part to play in this in terms of "is Putin/isn't Putin" going to do something. He already knows what his limits and plans are. It's clear that the optics of it don't matter to him. At most, it might sway China a little one way or another with regards to what they are going to do but I bet they already know most of their plans, too. If the US, say, did something unpredictable like drop marines on the ground in western Ukraine and lights up the sky with F-16s - ok, then everyone re-calibrates. But I'm sure Russia already has already assessed what they think everyone is going to do and their plan is based on that. China, too. So long as we're only doing half measures like economic sanctions and supplying arms but not troops, the plans are no different.
Also, remember this, too, when there's some story in a month about how some American or German or French or Ukrainian did something in a month - it's a pretext as the plan has already likely been made.
SI