[Brian Swartz]

Sure, but they're a lot more reliable starting around Februaryish the last time I looked of the year of the election. There's a lot more moving around prior to that. Howard Dean, Hillary Clinton, Giuliani, Gingrich all had sizable leads early on and were not nominated. That's quite a few examples in not a very long timeframe. Plus there's also the factor that polls are somewhat less reliable than they used to be. I think we're mostly just possibly miscommunicating on the level of degree here. I may have overstated it in what I said; I don't think they are useless, I just don't think they are anything to base certainty on, which is where this conversation started.

If someone says Trump is the favorite, I agree with them. If they use words such as have been used on this forum such as 'it's over' and 'guarantee', I think they're wrong and are presuming far, far too much on the future.