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Originally Posted by Atocep
I agree mostly. I do think the state of the union ends up mostly washing out. People have short attention spans and tire of scandals unless there are significant updates. The state of the union, Gaza, and 1000 other things will either be forgotten or have far less importance to voters by election day. Republicans can't really run on the Gaza situation because they're all for Israel steamrolling through there at any cost. 7 months from now its u likely to have much, if any, impact.
Abortion and the economy will be the 2 biggest factors in this election. The economy is strong fundamentally but people are still not comfortable with the combination of inflation and shrinkflation we're seeing. Abortion, though, is still killing the GOP. They lost a state seat special election in Alabama by 25 points in a district that Trump won and went +7 to the GOP in 2022 by heavily focusing on reproductive rights.
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I really don't think those issues will go away. And I really think Democrats are making a huge mistake assuming that everyone is just going to come back to the table at election time. I'm sure some will, but I think they are vastly underestimating how many people are angry with Biden and his hard right shift and continuation of unpopular policies. Repeatedly antagonizing your base seems like a bad strategy.
Maybe they have internal data telling them things are great. Maybe there is a plan to abandon Michigan because they think they can win North Carolina with these policies instead (they did think they could win Georgia in 2020 when most people didn't think they could). And maybe they think there are enough never-Trumpers to make up for all the people they are losing.
But sure seems to me like a campaign that is fucking up bad (see their immigration stunt) and will need to pull out some excuses for why they botched another election to Donald Trump of all people.