2017 Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown, and 3yo Thoroughbred Races

[QuikSand]

Thought we'd get this started a bit earlier this year. Prep race season is about to kick in, and there's a future betting pool open this weekend. Here are some free online PPs for anyone fishing around:

https://www.twinspires.com/sites/twi...s/spl0127y.pdf

CLASSIC EMPIRE is the obvious chalk. McCRACKEN is the buzz horse - I'm really digging him. Lots of brilliance, as usual, not obvious what staying power there is among these burners.

Fun times.

[QuikSand]

Okay, big yawns, then.

This weekend marks the first "serious" Derby prep races - still not a bad time to saddle up and start following the crop this year.

Here's a nice preview of the two big races today, the Fountain of Youth and the Gotham Stakes:

Fountain of Youth and Gotham Stakes, 2017: TV schedule, post positions, odds, contenders | Lexington Herald-Leader

I got money down on EL AREEB in the last futures pool, after seeing him win two different types of races earlier this year. If he wins today, he will surely leap from the second tier right into the top tier of contenders.

The field looks deeper and better for the FOY. IRISH WAR CRY is the favorite, but several look serious to me.

Here are past performances from last week's future betting:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...kdfw3pps17.pdf

For the uninitiated, most horses running this week will then target one more race (like in early April) before they set their sights on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs. Since these colts are still developing, there are often big twists in the storyline between January and May.

[QuikSand]

Another storyline for those who like this sort of thing... a very nearly complete blank slate looks like he'll point toward the Derby, through a special setup to try to bring in international contenders.

Epicharis Earns Japan's Kentucky Derby Bid | BloodHorse.com

EPICHARIS is 4-for-4 against unknown company, with time splits and the like that are just "foreign" to most of us who don't know a thing about Japanese racing. But he's been a heavily-bet favorite in all four races, and has earned some money and lots of points to qualify for the Derby. So, if he's sound in several weeks, he ought to make the field. Intriguing.

[murrayyyyy]

Discussed in private but I'm on Gormley 25-1 and waiting to see how he runs in the San Felipe next weekend as I thought it was tremendous value for him.

[QuikSand]

Two upsets today, the favorites aren't out of it, but will have work to do now.

GUNNEVERA won over PRACTICAL JOKE in the FoY, and looked sharp doing it. IRISH WAR CRY looked positively flat there, after contesting the forward pace.

Similarly, EL AREEB contested the early pace, had pressure all the early way, and was empty when called on later. J BOY'S ECHO looked really strong, visually barreling past everyone, but it was a somewhat strange pace setup that might have taxed the leaders but left the far trailers too much to do - he may have just landed in the perfect groove in the middle. J BOY'S ECHO was enough of an afterthought to register in the "ALL OTHER 3YOS" field bet in the last round of future bets, while GUNNEVERA was a 20-1 longshot.

[CrescentMoonie]

Hit the trifecta on the Dubai and should have added the superfecta as I would have hit it as well.

[MrBug708]

Arrogate looks great

[weegeebored]

Better than great. It arguably is one of the best performances in the recent past, and -- hyperbole aside -- some think it's one of the greatest performances ever. That was a good field he beat after a poor start and he had more left in the tank at the end.

Horses on the Derby Trail? Well, I am not sure of anything with this bunch.

[weegeebored]

Going to take a shot against Gunnevera. Gunn has a decent pace setup but the outside post will not be kind. Will likely be wide and may have to try to pass 9 other horses. Not a good setup as the likely odds-on chalk. I like Three Rules as well, but he will need to be hustled up from an outside post and I think that also compromises his chances.

So at a price I will play State of Honor. Has a bit of second-itis which worries me, but draws the 1 hole and will likely get the lead. Blinkers OFF which Casse hits at a 27% clip (3 for 11). Perhaps Casse wants the horse to sit off the pace with the blinks off which might work if the 4 or 10 want the lead to avoid a pace duel.

Good luck all.

[QuikSand]

I think the 1/10 frontrunner exacta is live there...

[murrayyyyy]

Anyone on Patch in LA Derby with the 1 post or is everyone staying clear because of Girvin?

[weegeebored]

I would worry about Patch making the jump from MSW to a G2. Not impossible, but I would need big odds. I am also not sure he'll like 9F. Leaning towards Local Hero. Would probably need 5-2 though.

[murrayyyyy]

I put a little future on Patch before the LA Derby 75-1 for KY. Not sure that 40 gets him in but it was worth a shot.

[murrayyyyy]

and I looked at Always Dreaming @ 20-1 for KY but felt it wasn't enough. %#*&

[CrescentMoonie]

I had the 4 factored into exactas, trifectas, and superfectas, but not as the winner in any of them. If the top two horses flip spots today I rake in money on all three bets.

[murrayyyyy]

Cloud Computing in the Wood?

[murrayyyyy]

Last prep and the only thing I'd do is 9-12 exacta box. Doubt anyone out of Arkansas make a winning run in KD.

[TCY Junkie]

Favorite had been training bad (very bad) after taking break from breeders cup win, last few works though been great. He'll probably go off around even money. Indicators are he wins but if you take others you'll get higher pay back. Last year I was looking for the the two top horses. One retired with injury, other refused to train almost. I'd have to take classic empire now that he is training good.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by TCY Junkie

Favorite had been training bad (very bad) after taking break from breeders cup win, last few works though been great. He'll probably go off around even money. Indicators are he wins but if you take others you'll get higher pay back. Last year I was looking for the the two top horses. One retired with injury, other refused to train almost. I'd have to take classic empire now that he is training good.

I really like the 9. He's got Smith on him and swung out wide in his last race. He's gotten better every time but don't listen to me. I took a future on him this week @ 35-1 at KD. So I double down on him just because I don't think CE is there with the back and foot problems as of late.

[QuikSand]

Classic Empire looked pretty good coming out of a very tight pack in the Arkansas. Haven't seen a speed figure yet, but I assume it was respectable.

Maybe he's your tepid favorite at something like 7-2?

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Classic Empire looked pretty good coming out of a very tight pack in the Arkansas. Haven't seen a speed figure yet, but I assume it was respectable.

Maybe he's your tepid favorite at something like 7-2?

Last 1/8th he had that gear that no one else had. He's listed as the favorite in my books futures @ 5-1 right now over Always Dreaming 6-1 and McCraken 8-1

[QuikSand]

Spent some time watching prep races today. Crazy wide-open field.

I think CLASSIC EMPIRE is better than his mediocre speed fig from Arkansas, and you have to like how he actually had to work through genuine traffic - not many have that experience before the Derby.

ALWAYS DREAMING - nothing to dislike about the Florida effort. Just "where's he been?" mainly - would like to have seen one more goo outing against something of a field, especially if he's only going to fetch $10-14 on a win ticket.

I didn't see anything impressive in the Santa Anita, if GORMLEY is actually good, it won't be with any of my money on him.

The Blue Grass is a mystery to me. I think there were two genuine talents in the field in MCCRACKEN and TAPWRIT and both lost something after getting mildly interfered with. MCCRACKEN did make a really nice move but then flattened out (badly?) and TAPWRIT got cut off and didn't have another move (like he showed in the Sam F Davis earlier, closing on McC). So a maiden wins that one at 31-1... I don't think IRAP is anything to consider, but that race is a mess in my mind. I will likely play an exacta ticket with the two hard luck horses from this field... TAPWRIT could be my favorite value play if he ends up at 20+ which seems quite possible.

IRISH WAR CRY looks solid and honest, and is a serious player too. I'm basically willing to toss out the weird FoY result where he faded badly. At 7-1 or so, I will likely be tempted. We'll see how he works at CD, that will matter a lot for me.

I just assume GIRVIN will be an underlay with Mike Smith up. Pass.

Among the ones that might fetch a real price, I will be watching GUNNEVERA, J BOYS ECHO, and HENCE. If any of them turn heads in the mornings ahead, I will be interested.


I love this time of year.

[QuikSand]

By the way, breeding statistics aren't as in vogue as they once were, but if you still buy into the notion that the KD distance is just too much for some horses who have mostly gotten by on brilliance (rather than stamina) then among the contenders there are a couple names with red flags: CLASSIC EMPIRE and ALWAYS DREAMING both have dosage indeces of 5, exceeding the thumbnail limit of 4.00 that held up for a pretty long time in disqualifying Derby winners.

In this year's field, there are four "dual qualifiers" - showing enough 2yo performance (validating precocity) and passing the bloodline tests (verifying professionalism): GORMLEY, GUNNEVERA, MCCRACKEN, and PRACTICAL JOKE.

[QuikSand]

Great page with links to lots of handy resources - posting here for my future use, and for yours.

2017 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Past performances (free via the Louisville C-J, from BRIS) for the field of contenders, sorted by qualifying points:

http://interactives.courier-journal....2017/derby.pdf

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

By the way, breeding statistics aren't as in vogue as they once were, but if you still buy into the notion that the KD distance is just too much for some horses who have mostly gotten by on brilliance (rather than stamina)...

Dosage theory seemed to work for a while, but Romans made too many ex post facto adjustments to the sire numbers to make them fit his model. Couple that with the fact that most horses are being bred for speed and it seems we always have crops of 3 year olds that can't get the classic KD distance. But entire sire lines are shifting toward speed, and some horse has to win the Derby, which may be why the 4.0 cutoff may be irrelevant now. Romans closed his site fairly recently so I am not sure who will carry the dosage torch. I use the Progressive Handicapping sire ratings but don't pay too much attention to them when it comes to the KD. This Derby looks to be a crapshoot; I am looking for tremendous exotic payoffs.

[EagleFan]

Does this idiot seriously believe these posts are going anywhere?

[QuikSand]

eh?

[QuikSand]

Anyway... nice work from J BOYS ECHO this morning at CD, 5 furlongs with no company, and ran it in 1:02.1 or so, then galloped out a bit. Two lead changes, looked pretty good visually. For a colt with only one race over the CD track, works really matter - nothing wrong with that effort. Romans (trainer) doesn't have a history of pushing works to get blazing figures, nor does JBE have any history of lighting up the morning clocks, so I'm not that put off by the mediocre time... but I would like to see a good tightening-up blowout as we get closer. Maybe a 4f in under :49 next Sunday or Monday, I'd guess. He's definitely among my value plays here.

[QuikSand]

Subject to change over the days ahead, my grid looks like this:

A (top contenders, have to use)

IRISH WAR CRY
CLASSIC EMPIRE

B (hoping for good value)

GUNNEVARA
TAPWRIT
MCCRAKEN

C (bombers worth using)

J BOYS ECHO
HENCE
PATCH
LOOKIN AT LEE

OUT (of my betting)

ALWAYS DREAMING
IRAP
GORMLEY
GIRVIN

[QuikSand]

...and if Godolphin opts to send THUNDER SNOW over for this race, I think he may need to be in the fold, too. Just watched his gutty win in the UAE Derby, and he's likely fine for the distance.

[QuikSand]

Looks awfully tough for Baffert to sneak in his Santa Anita horse REACH THE WORLD, but he was the most interesting thing I saw in that race - but only managed 4th and no points for qualifying. He's way down the list - likely will have to shoot for another race, perhaps the Preakness? Maybe he will be the latest Baffert summertime find who shows up to win the Travers and ascend to the top tier.

[QuikSand]

SHAPING UP: THE KENTUCKY DERBY – Likely starters in the 143rd running of the $2 million Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (GI) to be run for 3-year-olds at 1 ¼ miles on Saturday, May 6: Always Dreaming(John Velazquez), Battalion Runner (TBA), Battle of Midway (Flavien Prat), Classic Empire (Julien Leparoux),Fast and Accurate (TBA), Girvin (Mike Smith), Gormley (Victor Espinoza), Gunnevera (Javier Castellano), Hence(Florent Geroux), Irap (Mario Gutierrez), Irish War Cry (Rajiv Maragh), J Boys Echo (Luis Saez), Lookin At Lee(TBA), McCraken (Brian Hernandez Jr.), Patch (TBA), Practical Joke (Joel Rosario), Sonneteer (Kent Desormeaux), State of Honor (Jose Lezcano), Tapwrit (Jose Ortiz), Thunder Snow (Ire) (Christophe Soumillon) and Untrapped (TBA).

Next up in order of preference: Royal Mo (Gary Stevens), Local Hero (TBA), Master Plan (TBA) and Petrov(TBA).

= = = = =

Note - I'm 99% sure that BATTALION RUNNER is out, despite being listed as in the field above. That would put in ROYAL MO.

[QuikSand]

The last workout by ALWAYS DREAMING was great, great, great. Need to figure him back into my betting picture. Ugh.

[digamma]

In spite of the apparent booing from Philly, many thanks for keeping this updated. Helps the casual very race fan who makes things more interesting three times a year.

[QuikSand]

I am really a committed "pace player" - and this year, I really think there might be quite a lot of early pace (horses who want to push hard and run fast early to make the lead)... which often sets things up for late runners. The general principle here -- as a rule of thumb, the faster the leaders press early in the race and the harder they work to do so by feeling pressure - and bring the "pack" along with them - the more likely it is that a later running horse will run them down for the eventual win.

Now... to be honest, with a couple of late defections, the complexion is changing a bit. Malagacy and Battalion Runner dropping removes two of the very meaningful names from that early-running contingent. So, I'm less committed to this thinking than I was a week ago. But, Royal Mo draws into the field, and he will likely press early, so it's still in play.

Early runners in this Derby field, likely: Always Dreaming, Battle of Midway, Irish War Cry, State of Honor, Royal Mo. State of Honor may be the one on the lead in the beginning, maybe along with Battle of Midway... and you have two more who will be heavily bet overall right in this mix, which is pretty interesting.

Stalking types, looking to stay fairly close (if they run to form): Classic Empire, Practical Joke, Thunder Snow (we guess), perhaps Patch (mixed results)

Mid-Pack: McCraken, Tapwrit, Gormley (might stalk), Girvin, Patch, Untrapped

Late runners: Gunnevera, Hence, J Boys Echo, Lookin at Lee, Sonneteer


It is not very common for a Derby winner to come from wayyyy toward the back of the pack. Is this the year someone like GUNNEVERA wins it that way?

Side note... I think there might be enough buzz about HENCE to wither away his once attractive odds. At 18-1, I was really, really intrigued. If he ends up being only 12... or even 9... I'm a good deal less enthused. I will be using him, regardless.

[QuikSand]

I have no clue who this guy is, but this video (about an hour) goes through the whole field, and quick notes on each horse. In my view, he is a bit too reliant on the very last race for each contender, but seeing the key stuff from previous races and hearing a bit of analysis is engaging, for me, even though the creator is "just" an amateur.



So, take that for what it's worth. If you just want the spoiler, his top picks are IRISH WAR CRY, CLASSIC EMPIRE, and HENCE.

[QuikSand]

Yet another interesting angle:

https://www.americasbestracing.net/t...nders-finished

Takeaway - the horses below ran the final 3/8 of a mile in their last prep race "too slowly" to establish themselves as a legit Derby player, if you buy this angle (which has some reasonable underpinnings) that says 39 seconds is simply too slow to stretch out and perform well at an even longer distance (and with other tiring factors):

J Boys Echo
38.56

Irish War Cry
38.98

Local Hero
39.12

Tapwrit
39.48

Gormley
39.74

Battle of Midway
40.37

Royal Mo
40.40

Fast and Accurate
40.74

[QuikSand]

HENCE with a great 48.4 work this morning.

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/workouts

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by digamma

In spite of the apparent booing from Philly, many thanks for keeping this updated. Helps the casual very race fan who makes things more interesting three times a year.

+1 and I don't even bet. Just interesting to hear the strategy/theory/thought process behind it.

[QuikSand]

My still-evolving board:

A (top contenders, have to use)

IRISH WAR CRY
CLASSIC EMPIRE

B (hoping for good value)

GUNNEVARA
HENCE
ALWAYS DREAMING
TAPWRIT
MCCRAKEN
THUNDER SNOW

C (bombers worth using)

LOOKIN AT LEE
J BOYS ECHO

OUT (of my betting) (*=waffling)

IRAP
GORMLEY*
GIRVIN
PRACTICAL JOKE
PATCH*
FAST AND ACCURATE
SONNETEER
STATE OF HONOR*
ROYAL MO
UNTRAPPED


Yes, I still have half the field in my groupings to bet upon. No, that's not absurd.

I am part of a betting syndicate for the Derby and Triple Crown, and when we have a few thousand to work with, it's not unheard of to splash around in the exotics with a lot of different combinations. When we are putting together tickets, we often do soem GroupThink in doing so... so I will be asked to "put in one more horse here" and I'll have to reach somewhere. The first time it might be HENCE, the second time I'll volunteer TAPWRIT, and so forth.

I will likely be able to put an entire superfecta bet all mine in play (with more horses than I'd be willing to bet myself) but right now that might look like:

GUNNEVERA/IWC/HENCE/TAPWRIT
same 4
same 4 plus CLASSICEMPIRE/McCRAKEN/ALWDREAMING/THSNOW/JBECHO/LOOKINATLEE
same 10

...if that's for $1, that's a 4x3x8x7 bet, costing $672. And I don't even like it right now, feel that's too thin in the second slot.

[murrayyyyy]

With no true favorite, I thought about firing a lot of exacta boxes this weekend. May just try to find 4 horses and box them on a 12-1 hoping for a payout.

[QuikSand]

http://www.courier-journal.com/story...how/308229001/

I was apparently wrong about ROYAL MO drawing into the field. Not sure what I missed there, I suspect the source I quoted was wrong somewhere, since BATTALION RUNNER is indeed out.

Nothing much to see here. I don't see any reason to move odds around a lot based on the post position draw. PRACTICAL JOKE is a bit far out if he wants to hang close to the leaders.

As for the ML odds (meaningless, but still offer some guide) -- I would be really pleased to see GUNNEVERA and HENCE hang in the teens, and would be surprised if MCCRACKEN actually goes off as a second choice (more like 4th or 5th, I'd think).

[QuikSand]

By the way... if there's weather coming Saturday in Louisville, and the track ends up being sloppy... more points for TAPWRIT.

[murrayyyyy]

Is Irish War Cry still up top for you? Crossing him off as he likes to be up front and 17 is to far out for that type of race I fear.

[QuikSand]

Yeah, that would be the biggest takeaway from the draw, I guess. I have softened on him a bit - still expect to use him, but with less vigor than before. I guess if he drifts up to 8-1 I will get interested again.

[Arles]

Starting to study today. Thus far, I like Irish War Cry and Hence. I'm not real sure what to do about Gormley (inconsistent, but great jockey) - maybe if it's a sloppy track (with Tapwrit). Battle of Midway is interesting at 30-1. I could see him cracking the top 3.

If McCracken was 10-1, I'd be more interested. I just can't see myself betting on Always Dreaming, McCracken or classic empire with their current odds. My hope is the post scares people from IWC and he gets to 8-1.

[QuikSand]

Weather might be awful for today's Oaks, but it looks cool and clear for Saturday afternoon.

2017 Kentucky Derby: Unseasonably cool weather forecast for Saturday's 'Run for the Roses'

[QuikSand]

PACE SETUP

Who wants the early lead here? First, there doesn't look like anyone in the field who NEEDS the lead, period. Those types can be disarming to the whole race, especially if there are more than one. There's some legit speed here, but nobody looks hell bent to grab the rail, I don't think.

11 BATTLE OF MIDWAY looks ready to run. He finished pretty strong in the SA Derby after leading early there, and the 46.2 clip it took to get that lead wasn't suicidal. I don't think he's desperate to use up all his energy to get clear, but I think he's the most talented of the true early speed horses here, and should behave that way. I see him in the 2nd or 3th path (just off the rail) either alongside the early leader(s) or alongside the very next tier of pressers.

6 STATE OF HONOR is to his inside, and he's definitely a run-early type...but he doesn't actually seem to be as fleet of foot or as talented as the 11. So, what do you do? Is SoH good enough to actually sit back and run by 4-6 horses later in the race? I doubt it, and I reckon they do too. I think he's a candidate to just let 'er rip and hope for the best - mainly because he's pretty much outclassed here. It happens fairly often. (My view, he will go off higher than the ML 30-1, by the way)

3 FAST AND ACCURATE doesn't seem to have any shot in terms of overall talent, and looks like another perfect candidate for the same treatment -- just let him go. He could easily be the leader on the rail as they hit the first turn. If we see the early lead looking like 3-6 or 6-3, there will be a few people wonderfully screaming "STOP THE RACE" as that would be a monster exacta.

4 ALWAYS DREAMING and 17 IRISH WAR CRY both believe they might be the best horse in the field, and both horses naturally want to be among the early leaders at least pressing the early pace. I see both of them looking to settle in just off a reasonable pace -- assuming the first half goes in about 46 flat, I'd expect them to be 2-3 lengths back. IWC will have to work harder from that outside post, but I don't think there's a huge chance of getting stranded 5 or 6 wide on the turn (where the sheer math of a longer radius means he would have tun run several extra lengths just to keep pace). I'm downgrading him modestly for the post position, he'd rather be down closer to the inside. Both of these (especially AD) are capable of just taking the lead if they feel like it, but I don't think either jockey will have that as an instruction. Neither of these guys is Bodemeister (not even AD, who's his son).

9 IRAP is a mystery horse. His win (yes, his only win) came while pressing a plodding pace (half in OVER 48 seconds) and then digging in. Does that make him a true presser? My best guess is that tomorrow, yes it does. He ought to try to hang forward, but I give him zero chance of being anything but a physical obstacle to the real contenders. I cannot see him finding the engine to actually get on the lead, but he might end up sandwiched between the 4 and 17, or even right in front of them.

14 CLASSIC EMPIRE has enough early foot to stay in the hunt, and what they decide to do is anyone's guess. Maybe they press him to stay close, thinking the pace won't be too taxing. If so, that could contribute to some early traffic problems -- if he and everyone mentioned above have more or less the same plan, there's only so much room to be "right behind the learly leader." That's how a couple of them could get impeded and compromised - again, happens all the time in these huge fields.

Nobody else looks like an obvious candidate to push early, to me. THUNDER SNOW is the least known quantity, but he's been winning from off the pace. More often than not, there's a "wait, _____ is running third!" moment for me in the Derby, as someone seems to just decide to get up front and hope their horse has more in the tank than usual. This year - could that be TAPWRIT? GIRVIN? GORMLEY from the 20 hole? I really don't see it.

With the defections from a couple of early speed types, I am really backing off my feeling that the pace would set things up great for the late runners. I'm still going to use GUNNEVERA, but not as a top-tier pick any longer. I am moving ALWAYS DREAMING up my thinking every day, he has probably looked the best on the training circuit at CD, seems to be coming in fit, and maybe the pace setup actually favors his stay-close style. The late runners might have too much work to do if horses like AD, IWC, and CE all pick up the pieces from these afterthought early runners and take control on the second turn.

[murrayyyyy]

Pretty much settled in with a boring ticket. Super with CE up top and then 7 horses on the other spots. $1 super. CE has won at CD twice and the Ark Derby was horribly run and he still won.

Thinking 14-(5,7,10,12,15,17,18)-(5,7,10,12,15,17,18)-(5,7,10,12,15,17,18)

[QuikSand]

Quick note for anyone following my voluminous text here. murrayyyyy is a better handicapper than I am, I'm fairly certain.