NFL Regular Season Week One Thread

[Pumpy Tudors]

Here's how my Sunday looks: I'll be glued to NFL Red Zone hoping for the Buffalo/Kansas City game, just so I can hear Rich Gannon say "ow-fense" over and over. When all the games get to the fourth quarter, I'm going to turn off my TV's sound and call the games myself using my best Gus Johnson impression. Then my wife will kill me and I'll come back and haunt you all as Gus Johnson or perhaps as Terry Bradshaw.

So if I were you, I probably wouldn't plan on a good night's sleep Sunday night.

[DataKing]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

Here's how my Sunday looks: I'll be glued to NFL Red Zone hoping for the Buffalo/Kansas City game, just so I can hear Rich Gannon say "ow-fense" over and over. When all the games get to the fourth quarter, I'm going to turn off my TV's sound and call the games myself using my best Gus Johnson impression. Then my wife will kill me and I'll come back and haunt you all as Gus Johnson or perhaps as Terry Bradshaw.

So if I were you, I probably wouldn't plan on a good night's sleep Sunday night.

Please, please, please choose to haunt me as Gus. If you choose to haunt me as Terry I am very likely to kill myself, and that won't be much fun for anybody.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

Here's how my Sunday looks: I'll be glued to NFL Red Zone hoping for the Buffalo/Kansas City game, just so I can hear Rich Gannon say "ow-fense" over and over. When all the games get to the fourth quarter, I'm going to turn off my TV's sound and call the games myself using my best Gus Johnson impression. Then my wife will kill me and I'll come back and haunt you all as Gus Johnson or perhaps as Terry Bradshaw.

So if I were you, I probably wouldn't plan on a good night's sleep Sunday night.

Here's how my Sunday looks: I'll be glued to the Lions/Bucaneers game. When that game is over, I am going to run out to the store, buy a potter's wheel, a bunch of clay and a "Best of The Righteous Brothers" CD. When all the games get to the fourth quarter, I am going to start making clay pots while listening to "Unchained Melody" over and over again, until Pumpy's ghost comes to my house, inhabits my wife's body and we re-create that famous scene from "Ghost".

So if I were you, I probably wouldn't plan on a good night's sleep Sunday night, because that shit's gonna be sexy hot.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I just felt a little joy on the inside... but mostly on the outside.

[stevew]

Oh, wait....sweet I got the rules backwards. Browns aren't on, but the Steelers are. Nice.

[DanGarion]

Reports are saying Manning is out for the season!

The latest on Colts QB Peyton Manning. Jake Query, a radio host on WNDE in
Indianapolis is reporting that sources are telling him that Peyton Manning
is out for the year.

Query posted this on his twitter feed today:

"What I (Query) said: A source I consider reliable told me he is out for the
season. I do believe that the actual diagnosis is still being determined"

Query then followed that with: "I (Query) was also told the 3rd procedure has
taken place, either Sun or Monday."

Understand that this is not official by any stretch. This is a radio host in
Indianapolis (that I don't know much about) saying this is what his sources
are telling him.

[johnnyshaka]

Originally Posted by DanGarion

Reports are saying Manning is out for the season!

Wow, that's huge.

[Abe Sargent]

Enter the Texans

[Logan]

I've had the suspicion for at least a month now that Manning may not end up playing this year, but I don't see any way he could officially or unofficially be out for the season already. If he went back in for more surgery and it actually works this time, he could be back in a couple months.

[stevew]

Is he still able to get a PUP exemption, or is IR his only roster option.

[Matthean]

ESPN, SI, and Yahoo all have articles on him just missing game one.

[ColtCrazy]

I really feel that if Manning was even at 75%, he would play this Sunday. Now that he's out, I'm thinking he's out at least 3-4 games. The season thing scares me to death, but considering another surgery is at least a possibility from what I've read, then season ending injury is at least on the table.

4-12 here we come.

[Honolulu_Blue]

If Manning misses a significant amount of time it will be really interesting to see what unfolds. I assume, like most, that the Colts will really struggle to win games. I imagine this will be because of a combination of just how good/valuable Manning is and just how poorly the Colts have planned for this eventuality.

It's not like this neck thing came out of the blue is it? They had to know that this could be serious and the best they did was Orlovsky and Painter until a week or so ago?

I wonder how the Colts would perform if they even had a decent back-up or is Manning just /that/ good and the team that reliant on him that if he goes down... Kaput.

While I like Peyton Manning, I will find the Colts much more interesting to watch (well, maybe not watch, but keep tabs on) if he misses significant time.

[spleen1015]

At a Labor Day cookout I was telling everyone his career was over. Some of the reactions I got from some folks was pretty comical.

I hope I was wrong.

[spleen1015]

I have some faith in Collins. He is 11th in all time passing yards and he was the QB of the Giants when they lost the SB to the Ravens.

He's not a bum. He's old and he's not Peyton Manning, but he's not Rex Grossman either.

I have some optimism.

[DanGarion]

Hey Colt's I heard Brett Favre is available!

[JAG]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I have some faith in Collins. He is 11th in all time passing yards and he was the QB of the Giants when they lost the SB to the Ravens.

He's not a bum. He's old and he's not Peyton Manning, but he's not Rex Grossman either.

I have some optimism.

How many career passing yards does Favre have? And one of your reasons for optimism is he started a SB he lost 11 years ago? By that standard, Rex Grossman is your man, he lost one more recently than Collins.

He's going to have a rough go of it with a poor pass blocking OL and a substandard running game, though better passing game targets than in Tenn.

[Julio Riddols]

I think Polian may have a master plan to get Andrew Luck so Manning can mentor him for a year before he retires prematurely after next season in the interest of self preservation. That would mean Manning being out for the year is not necessarily a bad idea. Otherwise, why haven't they brought in Garrard?

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

I think Polian may have a master plan to get Andrew Luck so Manning can mentor him for a year before he retires prematurely after next season in the interest of self preservation. That would mean Manning being out for the year is not necessarily a bad idea. Otherwise, why haven't they brought in Garrard?

They would either have to have the worst record in the league and even with Manning gone, that's a hell of a drop, or they would have to get close enough to trade up and get him. Even with the new rookie cap, I think the next draft could be rather difficult to trade up to get Luck. Garrard, while having good moments, can be outright awful.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

I think Polian may have a master plan to get Andrew Luck so Manning can mentor him for a year before he retires prematurely after next season in the interest of self preservation. That would mean Manning being out for the year is not necessarily a bad idea. Otherwise, why haven't they brought in Garrard?

He's going to have to fight San Francisco for that, and I don't think Indy is going 1-15.

[Abe Sargent]

I just honestly don;t see how a 30 year old career backup is better option than David Garrard. This HAS to be about the 9 million. With an abbreviated off season, there is no way you can sell me on Garrard looked poor in practice so he got fired.

[Julio Riddols]

One thing is for sure if he is out: We will finally see how good Manning really is this year. My opinion is that he is responsible for about 80% of that teams success over the past couple years. His neck likely is having issues from having to shoulder the weight of the entire team over that period. I predict without him returning, they finish 2-14.

[JAG]

I thought this was interesting:

How Many Wins Is Peyton Manning Worth? | The Big Lead

How Many Wins Is Peyton Manning Worth?

[UPDATE: At 12:30 Wednesday, Manning was officially ruled out for Sunday's opener against the Texans by general manager Bill Polian.]

Let the national freak out begin. Peyton Manning is not likely to play this week unless he has a miraculous turnaround from the effects of his neck surgery. The speculation is growing that he will miss multiple games. A few weeks ago, the line for the Colts opener at division rival Houston was close to a pick em, with the Colts a 1 point favorite in many places.

With yesterday’s news, and the likelihood that 39-year old Kerry Collins will start for Indianapolis, the line has swung to the Texans favored by 8.5 points to 9 points, almost a 10 point swing. Now, that line was already moving before the news about Manning (though we’ve known for a month that he was not participating in preseason, and that likely was already having some impact). Is Peyton Manning really worth 10 points per game? And how much of a win total drop should we expect for the Colts if Manning misses time?

I ran a quick twitter poll, where I asked people to assume the Colts were a 10-11 win team with a healthy 16 games from Manning, and then project a 16 game win total without. The average response was 5.6 wins, with a range from 3 to 8 wins. Let’s see how that nearly 5 win drop matches up with historical data.

To try to look at this question, I went back and looked at every Hall of Fame quarterback since 1978 who missed at least 2 starts in a season. I then added a couple of qualifiers. I limited it to ages 27-37, and I excluded any seasons that were the final two seasons as a starter (to avoid any decline phase). I also excluded any season where another Hall of Famer was the backup (Steve Young and Joe Montana in 1988 and 1989).

The goal here is to at least get a list of comparable players to Peyton Manning, so we can then mentally adjust for the Colts’ situation from a reasonable baseline. A few years ago, Doug Drinen of pro-football-reference did a study on what a starting quarterback was worth. The answer was about 2.3 points a game and 1 win over the course of a 16 game season. Now, that was an average starting quarterback, not a Hall of Famer, and Doug went on to estimate (before Brady’s injury that season) that the Patriots would be a solid 10 or 11 win team if Brady were hurt all year and an unknown backup was pressed into duty. A few weeks later, Brady did get hurt, and everyone was freaking out about the Patriots’ collapse without the irreplaceable Tom Brady, which prompted this response. Consider this my “reports of the Colts demise are greatly exaggerated” pre-emptive strike. (and yes, I did write this, so I wasn’t expecting the Colts to win 12 or 13 games anyway).

So anyway, back to our Hall of Famers and their backups. My list includes 3 seasons each of Steve Young, Troy Aikman, Dan Fouts, Warren Moon, Dan Marino, and Jim Kelly; 2 seasons of John Elway; and a season each from Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw, and Bob Griese (lest you complain about these last two, they don’t hurt the numbers, and the difference between Bradshaw and a young Mark Malone were among the largest dropoffs). I then looked at the average points for and against both with the Hall of Famer starting and without, as well as wins and losses.

When the Hall of Famers started, their teams averaged 24.0 points, 19.5 points against (+4.5 point difference per game) and won 61.5% of their games, which would equate to 9.8 wins.

When their backups started, those teams averaged 22.3 points, 21.4 points against (+0.9 point difference per game) and won 45.1% of the games, which would equate to 7.2 wins.

The differences between the Hall of Famers and the backups was a +3.6 point differential per game, and 2.6 wins prorated over 16 games.

Now, that 2.6 wins could be the difference between a playoff appearance and not for a team like the Colts. Let’s talk about some adjustments. The backups, since I excluded two seasons of Steve Young, would not be any better than a 39 year old Kerry Collins, and arguably worse on average. The most accomplished as starters after their relief role were either Scott Mitchell or Elvis Grbac or Don Strock. The rest were either career backups or former starters at the end of their careers. I don’t see any reason to downgrade that projection based on Collins compared to the typical backup.

As for Manning, yes, I think he’s an above average Hall of Famer and one of the best at his position of all-time. I think he’s a little more important than even the typical Hall of Famer, even though he is a little older than the average Hall of Famer I used for this study. Even if we bump him up, though, over the average dropoff between Hall of Famer and backup, we can’t get crazy with it. There’s no way he’s worth more than double the composite average of every other Hall of Famer versus his backup.

So I think if you want to assume the Colts were a 10.5 win team with a completely healthy Manning (the 9.5 to 10 win Vegas totals necessarily had a slight chance of Manning missing games already built into the line, so that’s reasonable), then I think the average projection for this roster should be about 7.5 wins. That should be enough to swing them from the favorite to win the AFC South to an underdog, but still a viable playoff contender if things break right in the AFC South.

Collins still has a well above average receiving group to throw to, with Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. The defense still has Freeney and Mathis. If this team is significantly worse than 7 wins, it will be because other things–Wayne and Clark declining, Freeney or Mathis getting hurt–caused them to fall further.

Now, I think it’s unlikely that Manning would miss all season, so I think the Colts win projection should be somewhere between 7.5 and 10.0 wins, depending on how many games you think he misses. Here are my predictions for the Colts while/if Manning is out:

* The Colts will not be nearly as bad as people think, as we tend to overestimate the value of the elite quarterback (flashback to the line for New England/Green Bay jumping 9.5 points when Rodgers was ruled out with a concussion, when I said the Packers would keep it close)
* Kerry Collins will put up near league average passing numbers. I don’t think he is what he was, obviously, at age 39. What he has been, for all of his career, is a guy that avoids sacks and gets rid of the ball quickly (not Manning quick, but way better than a typical QB, which is why he is a good fit here). When you factor that in, he has been a league average passer, throwing to inferior receivers compared to the Colts, but behind a better offensive line.
* I will be taking the Colts +8.5 on Sunday, though I expect that line to move even more as the public panics.

[Suburban Rhythm]

Originally Posted by stevew

Is he still able to get a PUP exemption, or is IR his only roster option.

He was on the PUP, moved when he was reported to be making progress. I believe you must be on the PUP at the start of the league year calendar, and assuming this was Saturday when 53-man rosters went into effect.

He was put on the active roster because 1) if they felt there was any chance he'd be prepared at all to play week 1-6, he needed removed from PUP before season started and 2) that 53rd spot was between him and their version of Steve McClendon, so roster wise it didn't mean a thing.

[Rizon]

Ben Roethlisberger Close To Completing Offseason Without Committing Sex Crime | The Onion Sports Network

[Shkspr]

In retrospect, when Manning drafted Aaron Rodgers in his fantasy league, that should have been a dead giveaway he wasn't too confident in his chances of playing.

[Lathum]

Mort reporting on espn Manning had another surgery today

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Will Carroll (yeah, yeah) just tweeted that if its a cervical fusion procedure it is potentially a career-ender.

[DanGarion]

Breaking.

The speculation on Peyton Manning is over. ESPN's Chris Mortensen is reporting that it's official: Peyton Manning had his 3rd neck surgery today and will be out 2-3 months. Here's what Mortensen posted on his Twitter feed:

"Official: Sources say Manning had surgery this am - cervical fusion with 2-3 month minimum recovery. No word on whether he will be put on IR."

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Will Carroll (yeah, yeah) just tweeted that if its a cervical fusion procedure it is potentially a career-ender.

It's not like he's an injury expert.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Let the 2011 Indianapolis Colts experiment begin!

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Let the 2011 Indianapolis Colts experiment begin!

The league is going to retroactively award past MVP trophies to Manning after this season.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by bronconick

The league is going to retroactively award past MVP trophies to Manning after this season.

Or the league might award Manning the MVP after this season, when they realize how important he is to the Colts...

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Will Carroll (yeah, yeah) just tweeted that if its a cervical fusion procedure it is potentially a career-ender.

Pretty sure that's the surgery that ended Daryl Johnston's career. Granted Peyton Manning doesn't typically play the lead blocker role.

[ColtCrazy]

Kill me now. 6-10, at best. *sigh*

I would think the Colts will hold off on placing him on IR unless he absolutely can't come back. If the Colts are somehow 4-4 at the midway point, they may try to bring him back for a playoff push. But if they are 2-6, which is possible with only the Bengals being a "bad" team in the first 8 games....I say they shelf him for the year.

Either way, what was a hopeful season with the Super Bowl in Indy turns into a disaster quickly. Just hope the Pats don't win it all...I plan on spending 3-4 days in Indy just hanging out for the festivities...the Pats would put a damper on that.

It's the Texans division to lose now. No Manning. Jags in disarray. Titans in transition.

[JAG]

Two years in a row the team that hosts the Super Bowl sees their starting QB miss significant time due to injury.

[Draft Dodger]

Colts will be better than people think. If I was a betting man, I'd be really tempted by the 8 or 9 points they are getting this week.

[molson]

I really don't think if the Colts tank this year it proves they would have tanked every year of Manning's career without him. Your team talent level is going to go down when you blow 5 drafts in a row. They did used to have more talent around him. They may have leveled off this year even with Manning.

[stevew]

The Colts have several elite players, but have drafted really shitty. Defense is essentially the Stud DE's and replacement level guys. Most of the line is garbage on offense.

I'm going 4-5 wins, but they will probably win this weekend due to emotion.

[stevew]

Triple jinx

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by HiFiRevival

Dilfer/Young/Herm/Keyshawn on Audibles just agreed that the Colts have a bottom 5 talent roster outside of Manning. I don't go that far, but they don't have a great roster by any means.

In all honesty, other than Peyton, how many Colts start for most other teams?

I'd say Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne, Robert Mathis, and Dwight Freeney, but then it gets sketchy. I'm not sure about Gary Brackett and I don't know if Jeff Saturday or Ryan Diem have enough left in the tank. I don't know enough about their DBs to be sure.

I think it's a combination of Manning able to make meh receivers good and that the offense has always been high flying enough that teams end up passing more to keep up because Indy hasn't been good at stopping the run in forever. I'm not overwhelmingly impressed with their post-Dungy coaching staff, either.

[Tigercat]

As long as you aren't a Saints fan hoping for halfway decent defense.... Worst half I have ever seen out of a GW Saints defense. Ugly.

[Mustang]

Might be first to 45 wins.

[ColtCrazy]

Originally Posted by HiFiRevival

Dilfer/Young/Herm/Keyshawn on Audibles just agreed that the Colts have a bottom 5 talent roster outside of Manning. I don't go that far, but they don't have a great roster by any means.

In all honesty, other than Peyton, how many Colts start for most other teams?

I'd say Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne, Robert Mathis, and Dwight Freeney, but then it gets sketchy. I'm not sure about Gary Brackett and I don't know if Jeff Saturday or Ryan Diem have enough left in the tank. I don't know enough about their DBs to be sure.

On defense you have 4 that could start for other teams. Freeney and Mathis of course. Brackett is very underrated...there's a reason he's the only LB the Colts have signed to a big contract in the last 15 years. The other would be Antoine Bethea. Extremely overshadowed by Bob Sanders. Didn't have Sanders' intimidation factor, but he is a solid at the run and pass. When he got hurt, you could see the drop in the defense more so than when Sanders went down. Jerraud Powers and Melvin Bullitt are good players as well, maybe not starter caliber for better teams.

Offensively, you'd have Clark, Wayne, and Collie. Collie led the league last year in catch % off balls thrown to him. Best hands I've ever seen with the Colts, and that counts Marvin Harrison. If he puts in a full year with Manning, you'd see Welker numbers but with more TDs. Saturday has an outside shot at the hall and is still a very good center. After him, though, the line is weak. Diem has never been much more than above average.

[SirFozzie]

Holy shit, that's a freaking barrell roll on the KR for a TD

[SirFozzie]

We all slammed madden cuz we wanted it to be more like the NFL.

Meanwhile the NFL is becoming more like Madden