Annual Combine Changes -- what do they really mean?

[zsteelers]

I'm not entirely sure I get what the combine changes are telling us about a player. I've seen cases where players had a bump in ratings later on their career without being accompanied by bump in combines, and vice versa. I haven't had a chance to look for any correlation between veteran combines, ratings, and performance, so I'm a bit lost on that.

I've read Ben's post on the BELCO blog, and discussions over FOFC, and read the manual -- the relevant tidbit about Annual Combine Scouting is

"Every year, all players are tested in the combine events. Front Office Football does this because you don’t have actual tape to watch, as real professional coaches have.

Along with scouted player ratings and statistics, combine numbers are a primary tool for evaluating players.

Combine results correlate to the player ratings. This is not an exact relationship, but it is a strong one."

I wonder if anyone has a better grasp of the combine changes?

[Ushikawa]

I saw Ben's post before a few offseasons and decided to act like it was rock solid, cutting and adding players with the combine deltas as a primary factor. As noted it isn't a guarantee but feel like it is definitely better than having no information.

My hypothesis is that the Combine Accuracy setting also is relevant here and the relationship would be much stronger and more easily tested with a 100 setting there. Kinda surprised no one has done so yet for rookies or vets but am sure the r2s will be made public soon.

[Sef0r]

It's a great addition to the game, if not for the fact that some of the increases are redicously high - then again I'm not a professional NFL player to be able to tell you that I went from a 5.10 forty to a 4.56 after an off-season.

[Trence]

Originally Posted by Ushikawa

I saw Ben's post before a few offseasons and decided to act like it was rock solid, cutting and adding players with the combine deltas as a primary factor. As noted it isn't a guarantee but feel like it is definitely better than having no information.

My hypothesis is that the Combine Accuracy setting also is relevant here and the relationship would be much stronger and more easily tested with a 100 setting there. Kinda surprised no one has done so yet for rookies or vets but am sure the r2s will be made public soon.

Could you please post a link to the blog post you're referencing? I'd be interested in reading it.

[Ushikawa]

Sure, Combine Changes: A First Look – Front Office Football Multiplayer Resources

[MIJB#19]

I think people are reading things the wrong way here. What I'm observing is the following turn of events:

start off-season (year 1)
player is 'combine scored' based on his start off-season skills

start free agency (year 1)
some players are re-scouted by staff if staff member is replaced by more/less accurate staff member (no recalculation of margin of error)

training camp (year 1)
young players gain some current, will be re-evaluated by scouts

pre-season week 2 (year 1)
random gains/losses, complete overhaul of what scouts think of your players, including new calculation of margin of error (as players get older this will usually be more accurate, but if the previous margin was 'spot on', player might become over- or underrated)

pre-season + regular season + playoffs (year 1)
young players turn green into red based on playing time, with boosts for mentors, skilled staff, etc, while older/injured players lose some red

start off-season (year 2)
new roll for combines based on skills at end of previous season

What I'm seeing is players who had dramatic changes by boom/bust or by position switches, they will see big changes in their combine scores, quite simply because their 'under the hood' skills have been changed (in case of boom/bust) or their position has changed (for example a DT changed to DE might still be a 75 pass rush technique, but because how combines are generated, that player will automatically improve his 40 time from roughly 5.00 to 4.75)

Once the pre-season has started, the combine score is no longer tied to the player's current ratings, it reminds you what the player looked like before training camp and pre-season.

The combine scores give you an extra set of numbers to evaluate how good the player was going into FA, could be useful to determine if player was overrated/underrated by the staff. But both measures have a margin of error and could theoretically both swing into the same wrong direction, it's just less likely and the 'average' of both scores should be more accurate than each independent measured set of numbers.