2009 Insider Trading

[Young Drachma]

Insider Trading is my new column on FOOL. I'll do an entire thread each season. I'll make observations about teams, players and other things of FOOL interest. All in-game stuff aimed at helping teams or playing the role of "fan" and criticizing the moves of my "favorite" teams.

In other words, you should view everything I write in here, as the voice of a fan talking, not that of DC the commish, as my commish hat comes off when I post in here.

It's an effort to keep me interested in things, to help me really learn around the league and to get a handle on the teams and also, to dole out some healthy heaps of advice to teams as a pundit would do on TV.

So there you go. Stay tuned for more...

[Chief Rum]

Awesome. Looking forward to this.

[Young Drachma]

Welcome to the late night edition of Insider Trading, I'm your host D.C. Morris.

First things first, let's talk about the hot stove league. We've got trades galore to talk about include some deals over in Compton, as the defending RL champions decided to make some moves...

WHAT THE HELL ARE THEY DOING TRADING EMIL GLAS?

This guy was my favorite player in FOOL. He's solid as nails, super young still and plays a position that's still not an easy one to fill in the league.

And what do they replace him with? An outfielder? IN FOOL? No way, man. The only thing I can say about this deal, is they wanted to save money.

But even then, you trade a guy who's had 3 90+ RBI seasons for a guy who is only a year younger who's never cracked that mark?

Not sure what we're going after here, but that's what muns is the master and has all of those titles. 'cuz he learned trade judo!

Speaking of Baltimore, this league sure is playing into his hands. He's assembling an army of pitchers over there, the same way that Hartford dominated the RL for a decade, Baltimore is gonna be the same way. Just you wait.

He's already got an 19-year old ace in Armando Estrada, another 19-year old with long potential in the rotation in Pedro Gil, he just got Ron Newman from Valdosta and he's only 22.

His cap number puts him in good position to acquire some pieces down the line or move those guys once they get a bit better, to really make an impact.

He's still a ways off. But this guy went 16 years before he made the playoffs and once he made the playoffs, he didn't give them back. So fear not, he's MADE of patience.

Napa Valley made a deal with Detroit, sending a veteran reliever in Ray Tapper over for an outfielder named Yamamoto. I guess on paper it looks fair. Detroit shores up a bullpen that was getting its act together, but if you look at their outfield, it's not as if there are tons of guys there who really have much more potential to be helpful.

And the kid was just 21. So who knows what's going on in Kwame-town. But Napa Valley wins this deal, I think, in the end...they needed an outfielder bad and they basically sent Detroit some grizzle for one of their younger ones.

Good move.

FREE AGENCY

Let's talk free agency, shall we?

Well, Brooklyn paid Batman another $30 million for four years of service. Well worth it, you think? This guy is a future Hall of Famer and Brooklyn has a knack for nuturing stars like that, so good on them for keeping him in tow.

Hartford gave 31-year old outfielder Pedro Gonzalez a $31.5 million deal over the next four years. For their sake, I hope he indeed hits 100 RBI and knocks in 30 home runs a year. Otherwise, that's just wasted cash. He's 31, unless he's starting to put on that flaxseed oil, he's probably going to start to gimping before long. But maybe their playoff run this year has them intoxicated?

We'll find out.

You know a signing I like? Ok, I liked it until I saw his stats -- Phil Young by Brooklyn. Maybe he'll benefit from that strange park of theirs and his batting average will go up. But if this guy couldn't hit in the rarified air of Denver Rancheros stadium, you have to wonder what he's gonna do playing in the notoriously anemic offenses of the Senior Circuit.

But at $5 million a year and a 4th year option, it's probably worth finding out, if you had to fill the spot anyway, lest an opponent get him.

Compton's woes continued as Atlanta -- the last team that needed to pile it on -- signed their starting centerfield, the aptly named Rafael 'Nutball' Ojeda.

This guy is a bit erratic statistically, but he's a downright BARGAIN at $3 million a year. If Chief just saves this guy for the playoffs, he'd probably be worth the money, even as his VORP declines. This is a good defensive signing. Not just defensively on the field, but defensively in terms of ensuring your opponents weren't able to sign him.

I don't know if I understand New York's decision to spend over $5 million a year on a guy who played in Triple-A last year in Brooklyn. Was he just a cross-town favorite? A way to steal the newscycle for a day for the Boys in Blue?

Who knows, but for a team that's as underperformed and as POORLY STOCKED as that team is, spending $54 million in payroll is absolutely insane. Especially when you consider that none of the Top 25 players in the league are on that team. So it's a bunch of underperforming guys who are probably overpaid.

That said, if that team lets Tomas Valenzuela go to another team this year, I'll burn my Heroes beanbag chair.

That guy was the reason the '04 Heroes made the Classic and even though they didn't win, he was
the signature player on this club when the team moved from Columbus to New York. The fans love him and even though his ratings have declined, he's sill a career .323 hitter and he hit .327 last year in limited duty. He's the real deal and if someone brings him in and limits his play, he can be a real good 4th outfielder or DH.

On the free agent market, you've got Jorge Rosas who is a catcher that might end up sitting out the year, given how much money he wants. Maybe someone will pay him that money, but I'd be pretty wary of a 33-year old catcher who demands that kind of cash. I guess if you're trying to get over the top, you offer it and hope he puts you there and if not, you sign him and see if he can't give you a good year or two.

But given no one trades big money players anymore, he's the kind of guy who you'd need to be pretty buyer beware about, in my humble fan opinion.

Another guy with declining ratings who I've always been a fan of, is 3B Charles-Andre Gagon. He's a Hartford guy, sure. But he's a solid producer, can play FOUR infield positions and seems to be a gamer. I think he's the kind of guy that you can throw some cash at and bring him in and he gives you a good couple of years.

In the closer department, Roger Naughton has been one of the few consistent bright spots for Montreal for years now. He's the kind of guy that could take a bullpen from good to great. I don't really believe in spending big money on closers when I run a bad team, but if you're a team that's on the brink or even close to being there, going out and getting a ridiculous, lights-out bullpen, will often win you 10 games.

Not everyone subscribes to that theory though, so mileage may vary.

32-year old second baseman Jimmy Walker (not to be confused with the prospect pitcher in Boston) is a guy who could be a useful platoon at 1st or 2nd base and shouldn't cost an arm and a leg.

There are some real decent middle of the road players to be had on the second day of free agency, so if teams in the bargain hunting mood, they could rack up pretty nicely.

That's really where a team like New York ought to go, too. Dump those unproductive contracts, sell off that whole team and see if they can't get some prospects into that absolutely bare system. I didn't even realize it was possible for a team to have NO players in its minor league system, but that's not really going to work as a long-term strategy, that's for sure.

I'd be interested to see if a team could employ a strategy that was all mid-tier players, get a few studs and try to win that way tinkering for years.

In FOOL, it almost seems universal that teams get stud pitchers and ride them through the playoffs like a good hockey team rides a goalkeeper. We've never seen a team in this league slug its way to a title. Probably because of the relative talent level across the board.

TITLEWATCH 2K9
This is the official counter in Government Center in Boston that counts how many days its been since the Boston Settlers won the FOOL Classic.

Looking at the roster, you see the holes and think "this team looked so much stronger a few years ago. What's going on?"

But guys get older, they move on and your ace turns 36 and is still your bonafide ace. I mean, is there anyone better than 6-time Pitcher of the Year Andres Aguilar? No, there isn't. Next year, he'll past Skip Adams (who despite being #2 in career strikeouts, can't get into the Hall of Fame) for 7th all-time on the wins list. If he wins 22 more games, he'll be 7th pitcher to win 300 games all-time. There isn't a guy with 300 wins who's NOT in the Hall of Fame.

The issue here isn't whether he's a Hall of Famer. It's 1) can he manage to win a title before he retires and 2) will be win enough games to catch Billy Smith for the most wins in FOOL history?

I doubt it. That'd be another 75 wins. He's got the year left and he's still good enough, but that's 3 20 win seasons and a 15 win season, when he's probably got 1 more 20-win season and a bunch of 16 or 17 win ones around.

That said, it'd be fun to watch him get up there, no?

The other funny thing about the guys with 300 wins? None of them have more than 189 career losses. Maybe that's what's holding Skip Adams up. He's only got 278 wins and he's got 17 more losses than Jessie McGorry, who's ahead of him for 6th on the all-time list.

Seems FOOL HoF voters don't tolerate average winner percentages.

But enough of the stupid Hall of Fame rant. Back to TITLEWATCH!

Boston could get there. They need depth. Trade some of those prospects in Single-A, the only depth they've got in terms of minor leaguers and see if one of the other teams at the bottom won't give up an established arm or two. For god sakes, let ALEX HEATH the poor minor leaguer at 31 play in the outfield. He's better than the two younger guys blocking his path and all he's been wanting to do his whole career is play in the bigs, but after an abysmal 2005 season, he's been relegated to the gstelmack Doggie Suite.

Poor guy.

But anyway, deal off some of those prospects who aren't gonna see the light of day for ages, go get 2nd or 3rd starter from somebody and leave the season less to chance.

Compton ceases to be a threat, but my goodness Colorado has assembled the best RL pitching staff since St. Louis died a second time.

Offensively, they're the walking dead. So there's some entry points in there to make something happen for the Beantown faithful.

Well except that their arch nemesis from the south is reloading again. Hartford looks VERY good. The only thing they lack is offensively depth. But on the front end? That team will be very, very interesting to look at this year.

They lack the deep rotation arms to really make something happen, but teams have overcome worse.

Meanwhile, Detroit has the pitching emerging, but their offense is suspect. It's mostly relievers, so the numbers look deceiving anyway.

In the CL, it's Atlanta v. Valdosta again. Brooklyn has no pitching outside of a 19-year old stud named Stan Emerson.

Montreal has some pieces, but no actual puzzle to put together and Baltimore is still too far away.

Napa needs to trade John Larsen for prospects and should've traded Adam Bancroft after the 2004 season when he played way over his head.

They need to put Harvey Gilliam on a plane somewhere too. Perfect. Send him to Boston for prospects. That way, Napa's farm system gets even richer and Boston gets a bonafide top of the rotation guy.

Wait, did I mention that Compton traded Emil Glas for turkey wings and some dip?

::shakes head::

It's gonna be a long season.

[Chief Rum]

This is great stuff. I think I got a third of the way through when I realized I probably can't even appreciate it fully right now, because I need to wrap things up and go to bed. I'll return to this tomorrow, when I can look at it with the game open and eyeball the players in question. I love these sorts of columns in real life baseball. Good read, Insider Trader DC.

I didn't see a mention of my allowing RF Jesus Ramirez to go, who has only been one of the key Crackers in my lineup since the re-start. Or how I inked Miller--at 30--to a 7 year, $54 M contract to keep him from going to free agency. Time will tell if I made the right decisions.

And my concerns aren't over with--star catcher Greg Harris and talented SP Drake Davis are in their walk years.

[gstelmack]

Every time I give Alex Heath a shot in the playoffs, he screws it up. Dude just does not want to hit major league pitchers. At all.

[muns]

Wow this was an amazing read. DC thanks for taking the time out to do that.

Loved the section on Boston and the rant on the HOF

[Montreal_GM]

Great read! Thanks for taking the time and putting in the effort.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

They need to put Harvey Gilliam on a plane somewhere too. Perfect. Send him to Boston for prospects. That way, Napa's farm system gets even richer and Boston gets a bonafide top of the rotation guy.

If Napa wants to talk, I'll listen. Which of us is Napa Valley anyway? With all the shuffling I still have no idea who runs what team.

I do think I've got a decent set of arms though. I'm not sure why Y. Asai has so much trouble, but Al Cleveland continues to pitch well, Juan Negron had a pretty good year last year, and I've got a couple of young arms. Yes, I need someone to replace Aguilar, certainly for next season, but I've got some young guys with decent attributes stepping up as well. Of course, OOTP rarely makes any sense to me, so there is probably something I'm missing. You can never have too many arms though.

[Young Drachma]

I think I've found my calling. Criticizing all of your moves. Playing one team in FOOL is fun, but all I ever want to do is treat it like fantasy baseball and play with an entire team of the best guys in the league.

But now? That's what I get to do.

I might even create my own FOOL fantasy team this year. Mostly because that'd be freakin' hilarious.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

If Napa wants to talk, I'll listen. Which of us is Napa Valley anyway? With all the shuffling I still have no idea who runs what team.

Baltimore Gothams (muns)
Detroit Wolverines (TimGuru)
Atlanta Firecrackers (Chief Rum)
Colorado Rancheros (Tasan)
Boston Settlers (gstelmack)
Compton Brothers: buckinbranco
Hartford Harpooners (cramsey51)
Napa Valley Winemakers (TeachEnEspanol)
Valdosta Peanuts (Alan T)
Brooklyn Brownstones (Commo_Solider)
Montreal Majestics Montreal_GM
The Heroes of New York: Drakeviii

Commissioner: Dark Cloud

TEAM & OWNER LIST - Front Office Football Central

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

I think I've found my calling. Criticizing all of your moves. Playing one team in FOOL is fun, but all I ever want to do is treat it like fantasy baseball and play with an entire team of the best guys in the league.

But now? That's what I get to do.

I might even create my own FOOL fantasy team this year. Mostly because that'd be freakin' hilarious.

Yes, I bet this is going to be a ton of fun for you, and result in a bunch of fist-shaking from the rest of us

[buckinbranco]

Lol, I'm glad trading Glas has caused such controversy for you DC. I got two good players in return and I have a good 2B prospect to fill his spot. We'll see if it turns out to be a horrible deal for me. Personally I doubt that we will "cease to be a threat" this year!

Great article though

[TeachEnEspanol]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

If Napa wants to talk, I'll listen. Which of us is Napa Valley anyway? With all the shuffling I still have no idea who runs what team.

I'll look at your team when I get home but I might try this year without listening to the recommendations of The Great and Powerful Oz first.

[Tasan]

I personally applaud the trade of Glas. Loudly.

;- )

[Young Drachma]

To: Compton GM
From: D.C. Morris, Blogger @ Insider Trading
Subject: Emil Glas

Look man. Don't try to justify your sucky trade to me. When you guys are sucking wind in August and Baltimore is laughing, you'll know what I'm sayin'.

Gary Jones is your magical replacement? That poor kid isn't ready for prime-time yet. He's TWENTY-FREAKIN ONE. His ratings don't give the indication that he's ready to do anything other than hit .215 and cry the blues.

So I hope you're right Wizard of Dominguez Hills, 'cuz if not...well, I'm gonna stage a one-man parade outside "Jackie Robinson" until the cows come home.

I can't believe you let Emil go. You're never gonna live this down. Never!