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05-23-2009, 12:43 PM
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#51 | ||
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High School Varsity
Join Date: Dec 2007
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Masked pairs... so that's what Ben was talking about when he said he could spot a good player by the pattern of his bars. I always wondered about that.
Thanks Malcpow, very much appreciated. |
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05-25-2009, 07:57 PM
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#52 | |
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n00b
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Alberta
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Quote:
Not tryin to be a smartypants, just wanted to show off, since it made me think of a player I have on one of my MP teams, the best coverage LB I have ever seen. Good thing I had my draft analyzer file saved because I had forgotten his combines. He had a Position Drill score of 38. Behold...
__________________
Owner/GM/Head Coach and Towel Boy for the St. Louis Rams.of the FOWL Owner of the Green Bay Packers of the PFL. First Response Coordinator of Public Relations Disasters for the Balzac Ticklers of the FOOLX. (retired) Owner/GM of the soon to be awesome Fort Worth Fury of the IHOF Last edited by Ben E Lou : 12-06-2010 at 07:59 AM. |
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05-25-2009, 09:11 PM
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#53 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2002
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That is what we would call an anamoly.
I'm sure he's flying through the Matrix right now, fighting with the Smiths. |
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05-25-2009, 10:12 PM
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#54 | |
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High School Varsity
Join Date: Dec 2007
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Quote:
And I would call it an anomaly. But that's just me  Last edited by Firefly : 05-25-2009 at 10:13 PM. |
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05-26-2009, 07:33 AM
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#55 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2002
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Why I can't spell right is mindbottling.
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05-27-2009, 09:17 PM
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#56 |
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n00b
Join Date: Nov 2006
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Question..
Say a general player has strong combines that place him in the higher baskets... but then one dismal score that does not qualify. For instance ( I am making this up) Lets say a WR with a 4.38-7-6.79-11.5-48 Would his 7 in bench doom him to being a 425 type player? Even though his speed says he should be a 575 type? |
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05-27-2009, 10:18 PM
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#57 |
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n00b
Join Date: Nov 2006
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How about this guy (Actual Case)
RDE: SOLE: 21 40: 4.9 Bench: 22 Agil: 7.00 BRD: 105 According to the Chart his agility should make him a 550 player. However his 40 time says likely 400. I think I misunderstanding the methodology you used. |
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05-29-2009, 03:47 PM
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#58 |
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n00b
Join Date: Oct 2006
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So does a player have to have the high physical bars to be masked? I've drafted guys within the combines of a 500-550 type player but with hardly any bars. They never pan out.
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05-29-2009, 04:45 PM
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#59 |
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n00b
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Alberta
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Correct me if I'm wrong but these tests are done with a draft file where players are given certain ratings across the board. So when he's got a 575 player that means he's manually set all that players ratings to 575. In real draft files you'll get players that have some scores at 675 and some scores at 375 for example. This is an exercise using pre-determined players to show what combine ranges they will have with thiose scores, so if a WR for example has an outstanding 40 time, it does not mean he will be highly rated in all categories, or even that he'll be highly rated overall. It just means that he'll have a high "Big Play Receiving" rating because that is what the 40 time is correlated to.
__________________
Owner/GM/Head Coach and Towel Boy for the St. Louis Rams.of the FOWL Owner of the Green Bay Packers of the PFL. First Response Coordinator of Public Relations Disasters for the Balzac Ticklers of the FOOLX. (retired) Owner/GM of the soon to be awesome Fort Worth Fury of the IHOF |
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06-12-2009, 11:49 PM
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#60 | |
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n00b
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Alberta
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Quote:
Ok, so.... Kappe is a piece of turd  He's got full xp at RCB and this is what he looks like. He maxxed at 33/33. You can see by his stats there he sucked balls as my nickleback this year. Got an innordinate amount of tackles but NBs usually do. Allowed 57 caught in 557 passing plays. So I'm wondering what happened? At the beginning of the season he was a 31/40 or something. Just a bum player that scored good combines and got rated highly? Volatility drop? I feel like I'm getting better at evaluating players, especially from playing in the FOWL but this really surprised me.
__________________
Owner/GM/Head Coach and Towel Boy for the St. Louis Rams.of the FOWL Owner of the Green Bay Packers of the PFL. First Response Coordinator of Public Relations Disasters for the Balzac Ticklers of the FOOLX. (retired) Owner/GM of the soon to be awesome Fort Worth Fury of the IHOF |
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06-13-2009, 02:50 AM
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#61 |
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College Prospect
Join Date: Sep 2005
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What did his ratings do in camp, did they go up or down? It would be useful to have a timeline of his ratings, from the moment he was on your roster, and then after camp.
On face value, it really looks like a random bust happened in camp. But I would need futher information to make that judgement. The other possibility is, presuming this is the end of year 1, he is heavily masked. I had a TE recently who maxed out far short of his potential. He has continued to jump in ratings quickly and consistently, past that original potential. It seems odd though, that his current developed so little. With more information, I'm sure we can work this guy out. Last edited by Hammer : 06-13-2009 at 02:53 AM. |
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06-13-2009, 05:23 AM
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#62 |
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Morgado's Favorite Forum Fascist
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Greensboro, NC
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Kappe went +5 in his rookie camp, +3 in FA1:1 of his second season, and N/C in his second year TC. I'm guessing heavy masking. Four reds and a blue...
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The media don't understand the kinds of problems and pressures 54 million come wit'! |
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06-13-2009, 05:25 AM
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#63 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
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Hmm, Kappe does seem like a curious case. He had a +5/+5 rookie camp to move to 21/36 -- very good, through maybe less than expected, given the starting point and those massive combines.
I think I'd agree that the stats may be lying. Stats for the guy stuck at nickelback are pretty much useless in many defenses, it's a bug. |
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06-13-2009, 09:19 AM
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#64 |
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College Prospect
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Bryson Shitty, NC
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Isn't the second year a known "hesitation year" in a lot of players development cycles?
I seem to see more stalls there followed by gains in subsequent years.. Typically with players just like Kappe. Typically, these guys who gain positional experience really fast but do not see those gains reflected by ratings are the guys that continue to improve steadily for the next 6 or 7 seasons in most cases from my experience. (not backed by any evidence, just observation)
__________________
Recklessly enthused, stubbornly amused. FUCK EA
Last edited by Julio Riddols : 06-13-2009 at 09:21 AM. |
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06-13-2009, 02:55 PM
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#65 |
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n00b
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Alberta
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So perhaps his bars are actually much higher but masked still? I see. I was under the impression that when a player hit full XP everything was unmasked. I'm stuck with him for another season because his bonus 4mil so all I can do is keep an eye on him. I'm very hesitant to start him even as just a NB next year unless he shows me some improvement. And then I'll likely keep him on as a cheap dimeback or something because with those combines I just can't give up on him. I can't quit you Alonzo Kappe.
I know that NB stats are a whole different story than a starting CB, I use a lot of nickle for all my teams and closely watch the performance of my various NBs so I know the range of performance to expect and his was far below usual. I realize however that there are many factors there, including the fact that I'm in a div with two very good passing teams and I'm not sure how Pdefs are determined, this could just be a bad year for dice rolls, etc, etc, but 6 Pdef and 57 caught in 557 plays still makes me wince.
__________________
Owner/GM/Head Coach and Towel Boy for the St. Louis Rams.of the FOWL Owner of the Green Bay Packers of the PFL. First Response Coordinator of Public Relations Disasters for the Balzac Ticklers of the FOOLX. (retired) Owner/GM of the soon to be awesome Fort Worth Fury of the IHOF |
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06-16-2009, 11:07 PM
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#66 |
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n00b
Join Date: Feb 2007
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I drafted an FS in an SP game that suffered similar results. He was a combine warrior FS, who showed signs of unmasking for a bit (played him FT with a mentor for 2 seasons), then decided to just top off at 24/24. Maybe, certain combines need confirmation by bars or something, but I'll keep checking more drafts when time permits.
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db Last edited by ddrrbb : 06-16-2009 at 11:07 PM. |
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06-18-2009, 12:59 AM
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#67 |
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n00b
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Alberta
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 Here's an update on Kappe, he went froma 33/33 to a 38/38 but I also got a new scout in the meantime so it's hard to say what's going on.
__________________
Owner/GM/Head Coach and Towel Boy for the St. Louis Rams.of the FOWL Owner of the Green Bay Packers of the PFL. First Response Coordinator of Public Relations Disasters for the Balzac Ticklers of the FOOLX. (retired) Owner/GM of the soon to be awesome Fort Worth Fury of the IHOF |
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06-18-2009, 04:18 AM
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#68 |
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College Prospect
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Bryson Shitty, NC
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He'll continue improving like this for 6-8 years I bet. May not change at all in TC or reg. season, but the off season progression should be consistent. He probably winds up around 50-60 OVR.
Of course this is all based on previous observations.
__________________
Recklessly enthused, stubbornly amused. FUCK EA
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08-16-2009, 04:52 PM
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#69 |
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College Prospect
Join Date: Sep 2005
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Here is a guy that seems to go against the grain somewhat. I was quite excited to see him appear half a dozen spots down the WR list. Looking at his amazing dash and agility I wondered if his intelligence would come back close to 0, and with a V/U tag. It seems he isn't actually an absolute stud afterall, yet has the dash and agility of a 625 player.
While it appears GD will likely max, RR doesn't appear likely to pass 25. Add to that the endurance bar and he has some serious concerns. Any thoughts from the draft gurus?  Last edited by Hammer : 08-16-2009 at 04:53 PM. |
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08-16-2009, 05:58 PM
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#70 |
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n00b
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: New Zealand
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This is only my opinion but that player scares me.
If I had a chance to draft him I would probably go for someone else. Everything looks great except 2 things for me, his endurance (which should match his getting downfield) and his development being at 18%. I would actually accept him at 18% if his endurance was to match up with his getting downfield rating. |
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08-16-2009, 09:34 PM
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#71 |
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n00b
Join Date: Apr 2006
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This guy intrigues me too Nick. His combine is almost identical to Chung who has the bars and the Endurance bar to go with his combine. I am thinking there is some serious masking going on here. Both Craigheads GD and BP bars are going to max out with those combines.
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08-17-2009, 02:21 AM
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#72 |
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College Prospect
Join Date: Sep 2005
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Low RR and endurance is an awful combination though. His endurance might be masked, but how can you be sure.
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08-17-2009, 11:27 AM
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#73 |
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n00b
Join Date: Feb 2009
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My estimates have his GD headed for high 90s and courage, adjust, and AD coming up. The initial and estimated bars difference implies VU, though. I would guess either the unestimated bars (end, ST, 3D) are coming down to compensate or your scout was off.
 The position score gets arbitrarily divvied up by my algorithm between adjust to ball and avoid drops, by the way. Last edited by jeffrey : 08-17-2009 at 11:29 AM. |
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08-25-2009, 11:55 AM
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#74 |
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n00b
Join Date: Mar 2007
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2 questions:
what bar is SS? refering to masked pair of RR/SS for WRs/RBs. How high is high when looking at the bars? 75? thanks |
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09-27-2009, 10:03 PM
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#75 |
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High School Varsity
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Florida
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Regarding the "27 position score" thing that I've seen referenced a few times... Am I correct in assuming that except for those positions where its indicated to not apply, I should avoid players with a position score lower than that?
Also, for masked pairs, that means that the pair of attributes in question will appear out of whack given the relevant combine scores, right? Last edited by OldSchool : 09-27-2009 at 10:03 PM. |
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09-28-2009, 09:38 AM
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#76 | |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
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Quote:
On the 27 pos score, it only applies to linebackers. Other positions will have their own breakpoints if you look at the data. And yes, masked pairs will appear out of whack together. |
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09-28-2009, 02:03 PM
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#77 | |
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College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Sweden
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Quote:
SS should be ST = special teams
__________________
San Diego Chargers (HFL) - Lappland Reindeers (WOOF) - Gothenburg Giants (IHOF) Indiana: A TCY VC - year 2044 - the longest running dynasty ever on FOFC! |
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12-09-2009, 08:52 AM
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#78 |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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bump
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12-09-2009, 09:16 AM
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#79 |
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Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Maryland
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Heh. Good, I won't have to search for it.
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null |
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12-09-2009, 09:24 AM
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#80 | |
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Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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Quote:
That's why I bumped it |
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08-18-2010, 07:42 AM
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#81 | |
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n00b
Join Date: Sep 2009
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Quote:
bumped for curiosity cause i got a QB 4.51 - 7 - 7.52 - 9'0 - 79 and cause nobody really addressed this |
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08-18-2010, 12:29 PM
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#82 |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
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Nothing dooms anybody per se, and these figures are best used as guidelines for a sense of what a good or great combine truly is for the different scores. Looking at this with our knowledge that bench correlates to ability to throw long and deep passes, you can speculate pretty strongly that your QB will not be good at those things even if he is a very useful player. Or you can speculate that his crappy combine in that category might be a sign he is not going to be a very useful player.
It's all just food for thought and information for better analysis. |
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09-19-2010, 11:35 PM
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#83 |
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n00b
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Australia
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Does Height have anything to do with it? I always pass on undersized qb's (anyone under 6'0) even if they have good bars.
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09-20-2010, 05:35 PM
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#84 |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
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Height was not used in this research. I've always treated it as a pretty minor variable for consideration.
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09-21-2010, 12:18 PM
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#85 |
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n00b
Join Date: Jan 2007
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Making sure I get this right.
QB in upcoming draft. All 8 of his combine scores fit with the constraints of a 575 player. He has maxed out bars in Short Passing and Accuracy to go along with a maxed Sense Rush. He has a maxed bar in Scramble that correlates with his 4.62 - 40. All of his other bars are basically at 0. He knows 14 positions already but has 0 stats from college. 49% Developed. Looks like a steal based on the above. So how much do the horrible bars in basically every other category come into play? |
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09-23-2010, 12:27 PM
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#86 |
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College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: San Diego
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The information here is food for thought and should color how you look at a guy. This thread probably isn't the best place to solicit advice on specific players though. Happy hunting.
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09-23-2010, 12:41 PM
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#87 |
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lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: sans pants
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I'll piggyback on what malcpow said here and mention that whenever I had questions on specific guys I just PMed him and he always got back to me the same day. He has looked at at least 100 guys for me via PM. He is really selfless like that.
__________________
Superman was flying around and saw Wonder Woman getting a tan in the nude on her balcony. Superman said I going to hit that real fast. So he flys down toward Wonder Woman to hit it and their is a loud scream. The Invincible Man scream what just hit me in the ass!!!!! I do shit, I take pictures, I write about it: chrisshue.com |
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09-23-2010, 02:11 PM
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#88 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Houston, or there about
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Is there any way we could just sticky this thread? I keep forgetting about it when I need draft help.
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2011 Golden Scribes winner for best Interactive Dynasty |
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10-15-2010, 07:54 AM
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#89 | |
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n00b
Join Date: May 2007
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Quote:
If no one has done it before then, in December I'll see if I can get the numbers to finish this table. |
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01-19-2011, 03:34 PM
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#90 |
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n00b
Join Date: May 2007
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QB Solecismic values
I've decided to add to this knowledge base by performing a few experiments of my own.
This first example will be the most detailed. For brevity sake, the others will just provide the finalized data. Experimental Method Created 6 draft files of 1,000 QBs with 375s in all values. Imported these draft file into FOF 2007 single player league ready for the draft. Used Greg Stelmack's Extractor to pull the combine scores for all players. Stored combine scores in a spreadsheet and analyzed the results. Continued on with 400s, 425s, 450s, etc. (For the record, that's 72 draft files). The columns below are as follows: Solecismic = Solecismic score listed Expected Value = See below Adj Exp Val = See below 375, 400, 425... = values that were filled in for all player ratings in the draft file For example, reading across on the Solecismic=14 line:
In the middle of the graphs where there is a large sample size, most of the distributions are very well behaved. At the fringes, as the sample sizes decrease, things tend to get a little wonky and values get skewed. Operating on the assumption that higher Solecismic is generally better, I have done a listtle bit of linear interpolation for some of the values that were out-of-whack, producing a steadily increasing Adjusted Expected Value instead of the calculated one that oscillates a bit due to small sample size. For example, due to small sample size a Solecismic score of 48 calculated better than one of 49. This is sampling error and the value was adjusted to be between the one higher and lower. I have the QBs done and will be posting my findings over the next few posts. If anyone finds this interesting I'll post a spreadsheet that automatically calculates estimated values. Thanks for reading. And now...the data... QB Solecismic Values Code:
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01-19-2011, 03:38 PM
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#91 |
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n00b
Join Date: May 2007
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QB 40-yard Dash Data
Code:
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01-19-2011, 03:39 PM
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#92 |
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n00b
Join Date: May 2007
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QB Bench Press Scores
Code:
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01-19-2011, 03:42 PM
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#93 |
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n00b
Join Date: May 2007
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QB Agility Scores
Code:
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01-19-2011, 03:47 PM
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#94 |
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n00b
Join Date: May 2007
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QB Broad Jump
Code:
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01-19-2011, 03:49 PM
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#95 |
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n00b
Join Date: May 2007
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QB Position Drill
Code:
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01-19-2011, 04:32 PM
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#96 |
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College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2002
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Thanks for your work stretch. These appear to be some solid testing methods, but what conclusions did you draw?
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01-19-2011, 05:15 PM
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#97 |
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H.S. Freshman Team
Join Date: Nov 2004
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Stretch, would you mind sending me the raw data? I don't have the utility to create draft class files. Or if you could tell me where to get that utility, that'd be great too.
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01-19-2011, 08:47 PM
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#98 | |
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n00b
Join Date: Dec 2010
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Quote:
Also, any reason why the extractor won't work for me? I just get errors and errors and errors. The reason I sought out this thread today: do the masked pairs seem to work in reverse? In other words, if a player has a bunch of high scores and a masked pair that is lower than it otherwise "ought" to be, is that an indicator of a likely draft bust? I didn't see this discussed anywhere, but I may have missed it. |
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01-19-2011, 09:20 PM
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#99 | |
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n00b
Join Date: Dec 2010
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Quote:
In that case, the pairs would be: SR/LP MP/TIM SP/ACC 3rd/2MIN DP/READ If it is the way I read the language it would be: SR/LP SR/MP/TIM SR/SP/ACC etc. |
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01-19-2011, 10:28 PM
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#100 |
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n00b
Join Date: Dec 2010
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Finally, I can add to the knowledge base...I think. A little bit, at least. I haven't seen these 2 little things mentioned anywhere.
First: One way that I *HAVE* found these masked pairs useful in indicating busts (as opposed to sleepers) is by seeing when they are unmatched in groups. That makes no sense, so let me explain. Your masked pairs are: SR/LP MP/TIM SP/ACC 3rd/2MIN DP/READ right? If you look at Kurt Dillon below: you'll notice that our esteemed Mr. Dillon has very high bars in the bolded ratings: SR/LP MP/TIM SP/ACC 3rd/2MIN DP/READ The others suck. That is what we call a lure. Also, Scramble Frequency and Kick Holding are high, which make the overall picture look rosier, but those are irrelevant (KH is not, but that, after all, is what your 3rd QB is for.) Confirming this, an interview told me (I used pre-interview screenshot, sorry) that he was very overrated, and that his Intelligence graded out significantly higher than his Wonderlic (see below). But here's a great case when you can avoid burning an interview by seeing the bar pattern. Second: This is probably obvious to most, but the implications may not be: the Wonderlic by itself tells you a little bit, but the Wonderlic to Intelligence ratio gives you what I believe is the single most important factor in evaluating a quarterback - not necessarily in his rating, but in his performance on the field (and by that I mean whether he makes his team more likely to win or lose, not necessarily his statistics): a dead-on balls accurate assessment of his Avoid Interceptions rating. Since 50% of the Wonderlic determines Intelligence, and 10% determines Sense Rush, the rest of it tells you the Avoid INTs score, you can very closely assess this critical score by that ratio. If you look at Melvin Hoffman below, you'll see a High Wonderlic (36) and a Very High Intelligence (91). 50% of that Wonderlic score should go to Intelligence, so that score should be in the 75ish range. All that extra Intelligence is lowering the Avoid INTs score...no other way around it. Mr. Hoffman is a pick machine, and a huge bust in spite of going blue Fash, Wonderlic, Agility, and Passing Drills. The kicker is that his bars turned out reasonably okay, and he could put up some decent numbers overall...but averaged some 20 INTs per year as a starter, and absolutely killed his teams. Melvin Hoffman = Rex Grossman, Jay Cutler in Denver, whatever. Conversely, the same year Greg Carlisle came out. Both he and Hoffman rated 5.1/5.8 in their overall draft rankings. Carlisle was worse than Hoffman by a hair in every part of the combine except broad jump. All were black except Wonderlic. His % Developed was much better, though. His bars were scattered, no clear masking signs apart from being listed as Very Underrated. But his Wonderlic was High (35) and his intelligence was Average (57) He looked like a marginal starter, and performed like one...except he always threw relatively few interceptions, and his teams did well. Greg Carlisle = Matt Cassel, Trent Dilfer, etc. One last example is from that same year, combining two of these things: Mitch Detsch was ranked 3.5/4.0 in his draft ranking, and his combines were all black, green in broad jump and passing drills. You'll see he sports a partial masked pair (long/SR), but my scout thought he was Very Overrated and he had low volatility to boot. But you'll also notice a High Wonderlic (28, still black, but lists as High), and Low Intelligence (21). With that is a moderately high Sense Rush, part of the masked pair. The Sense Rush fits the Wonderlic, but that Intelligence should be in the 50s or 60s. I picked him up as an UDFA, and watched him creep into the low 50s. I started him as an experiment in his 5th year on a team with a good defense and running game around him and we went 11-5 and lost in the FO Bowl. He went 59%, 3200+ yards, 21 TDs, 5 INTs in about 500 attempts. I liked him. I then traded him (for squat, as an experiment) to a QB poor team with very average talent and the team went 10-6 and 1 and done losing to my team. He had to throw more and went about 55% for 3400+ yards, 22 TDs, 11 INTs in 575 attempts. Both teams outperformed their power rankings by quite a decent margin. FWIW, YMMV and all that jazz. Last edited by Wanderer : 01-19-2011 at 10:34 PM. |
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