FOFC GroupThink 2024: We take over the (beloved) Arizona Cardinals

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Insane value using the PFF Mock Drafter, and just taking need-influenced BPA:



Absurd.

That’s an insane draft! I’ve done a lot of PFF mocks for the Cards and Lions and that’s as good a one I’ve seen.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

That’s an insane draft! I’ve done a lot of PFF mocks for the Cards and Lions and that’s as good a one I’ve seen.

and I take no credit for it, no trades, nothing clever, just the 2nd and 3rd guys we selected fell well beyond where they usually do and Cards were in the right place, right time to get both

[QuikSand]

the world is cooling on MHJr, are we?

[JPhillips]

Fuck no!

I still think he's the safest pick in all of the draft.

[Honolulu_Blue]

I’m not cooling on him. I think he’ll be great.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

the world is cooling on MHJr, are we?

I think Nabors is dead even with him overall and likely has a higher ceiling. Then a little drop off to Odunze.

With a solid QB in place I'd take Nabors. If I'm building with a young QB I'd take Harrison for the higher floor.

[albionmoonlight]

I'm not. MHJr. not being WR1 feels like the "people need something interesting to say" stage of pre-draft discussion.

IMO, it'll go QB, QB, QB, MHJr, just like we all suspected a month ago, but there's only so much milage the offseason shows can get saying that over and over.

[stevew]

Kyler Murray to the Commanders is an NFL Draft trade that makes too much sense for everyone - SBNation.com

SBNation proposed-

Arizona Cardinals receive: No. 2 overall pick (2024)
Washington Commanders receive: QB Kyler Murray, No. 27 overall pick (2024)


Doesn’t seem like Murray would have such significant value, the trade values him like a #4-5 overall choice.


Murray’s value would seem to be more in line with the 40th pick, so for Arizona to move to #2 they’d have to give up something like 4 and 27 to move to 2

Which leaves you with
wash-Murray/4/27
Ari-2/40

Eh?

[albionmoonlight]

I agree that that seems like a pretty ARI-friendly trade.

Does ARI eat a ton of his cap with that trade or something?

[Thomkal]

I just can't see the Cards trading Murray at this point. He bounced back well from his injury and seems to have his confidence back. Who then would you trade for? an untested QB who might set the team back 10 years if he doesn't work out. (Hello Josh Rosen taken 10th overall).

[QuikSand]

Using the PFF draft tool is becoming frustrating/boring... I am routinely seeing what I feel are unrealistic guys landing with the picks at 27 and 35.

Last cycle:
1.04 WR MHarrison Jr
1.27 CB Nate Wiggins (might be my CB2 in this draft, ought to go by pick 20)
2.03 C Jackson Powers-Johnson (seeing him routinely mocked in the 20s)

...I mean that's great, but I don't feel like I'm "making good decisions" other than sitting and watching top rated need guys land in my lap here. Often it's DT Newton, whom PFF grades as a top-10 guy, who is there for one or both of the later ARZ selections.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I agree that that seems like a pretty ARI-friendly trade.

Does ARI eat a ton of his cap with that trade or something?

OTC says Arizona would eat #34m in cap space with a trade before June 1. That seems... surmountable, since if you do that you are effectively throwing in the towel on this season anyway. OTC shows them currently with $29m in space this year, so assuming the entire cap hit were absorbed in 2024... fine, eat it all now, and next year you just get to go out and eat.

[henry296]

Powers may be slipping. Kiper's last mock had him at #47.

[B & B]

Kiper has been mostly irrelevant for years.

Personally I like Powers and if (dont think) he slips out of the first round he will become a 'trading post' player for some team to move up in the 2nd and grab him immediately.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by B & B

Kiper has been mostly irrelevant for years.

For plugged-in wiseguys like you and me, sure. His stuff stull definitely moves the needle in the betting markets, more than anyone else's.

Whether it's just the name, or the ESPN brand, or some sense that "he's talking to people" he remains a force of gravity in this sphere.

It might, however, be the case that there's an anti-Kiper angle in betting markets, honestly.

[Honolulu_Blue]

I forget where I heard or read it, but I heard or read that NFL teams may not be as high on Powers-Johnson as the draft media world is. I think he looks great, but I’ve barely seen him play outside of highlights.

[QuikSand]

everyone is looking for the next Tank Dell, the smallish productive guy that seems so obvious to succeed as a superslot... maybe it's Malik Washington?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHgc1W52RmA

He's in my Cards mocks from here on out, independent of whether I target WR early. They need bodies there.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

everyone is looking for the next Tank Dell, the smallish productive guy that seems so obvious to succeed as a superslot... maybe it's Malik Washington?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHgc1W52RmA

He's in my Cards mocks from here on out, independent of whether I target WR early. They need bodies there.

I’m all in on Malik Washington! All. In.

[albionmoonlight]

So one easy trade that would be great value for the Cards would be if the QBs go 1-3, and teams start freaking out about missing McCarthy. Then the Giants could offer an easy 1.6 + [value] for 1.4.

The Cards still get one of their top 2 WR (and maybe even their #1 if the Chargers go with Alt) and some extra sugar basically for nothing.

That's a situation where if I am ARI, I'm letting NY know before the draft that I'll give them a bit of a discount on that deal.

[CrimsonFox]

okay Thomkal and co, where's your Cards Mock Draft

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

So one easy trade that would be great value for the Cards would be if the QBs go 1-3, and teams start freaking out about missing McCarthy. Then the Giants could offer an easy 1.6 + [value] for 1.4.

The Cards still get one of their top 2 WR (and maybe even their #1 if the Chargers go with Alt) and some extra sugar basically for nothing.

That's a situation where if I am ARI, I'm letting NY know before the draft that I'll give them a bit of a discount on that deal.

Yeah the Cards are definitely in a good position to trade down if one of the QB's don't get taken in the first three.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

okay Thomkal and co, where's your Cards Mock Draft

I'm borrowing HB's. I just don't have enough knowledge of the players to do a serious mock

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

I'm borrowing HB's. I just don't have enough knowledge of the players to do a serious mock

Heh! Quik is killing it with his mocks for the beloved Cards. I’m loving them.

[QuikSand]

Another too-good PFF mock draft for the Cards:

-deal-down from 4 to 6 with the G-men, still get Nabers at 6 (realistic) and pick up two more picks including pick 47

-go counter-trend w Edge Latu at 27 (maybe unrealistic?) as I this he's now underrated in this draft and Edge is a semi-need anyway

-still get DT Newton with 35, then a CB I like (Rakestraw) with 47

https://snipboard.io/nJoZL5.jpg

[QuikSand]

From this site:
NFL Mock Draft Simulator | NFL Mock Draft Database

1.4 easy turn down trades and take MHJr

1.27 trickier than PFF, i take G Barton ahead of JPJ

2.03 T Mims still here (!) and I do it, BPA play I guess

3.02 DT Kris Jenkins great fit at need we overlooked earlier

3.07 not in love here, but take CB Melton as need

3.26 missed out on WR Washington, go with WR Tez Walker

pick 104 TE Cade Stover as a BPA at semi-need position (in-line TE)

...i like it, that early 2nd is just a great slot to have someone unexpected fall into our lap.

[Thomkal]

So it looks like the Cards braintrust listened to most of us. Glad they went receiver

[QuikSand]

Funny... in a lot of my mock drafts, I got frustrated that I was often grabbing C JPJ and DT Newton at the 27/35 picks. And now, in the real draft, both are available at the top of round two.

[Passacaglia]

Can they get Darius Robinson's mom to play too?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Funny... in a lot of my mock drafts, I got frustrated that I was often grabbing C JPJ and DT Newton at the 27/35 picks. And now, in the real draft, both are available at the top of round two.

i think if they go secondary and O-line with today's picks I think they are having a good draft.

[QuikSand]

OK, so.. pick 35 seems very safe to get a highly graded interior OL, there are a handful still remaining. I don't see a serious need to trade down and gain capital, so I would be thinking that as Plan A.

If they loved a WR to augment the room they have, there's someone like AD Mitchell or Troy Franklin or Keon Coleman. By the books/experts/mocks also solid value of you do that.

And DB Cooper DeJean is a divisive prospect, but some have him graded really high, so he could be a BPA choice here. A couple corners like Tampa and McKinstry among the top overall players too.

Solid options for our Cards, with a couple of check marks already placed onto the needs list.

[JPhillips]

Kool-Aid
Powers-Johnson
DeJean

In that order.

[Atocep]

I really like AD Mitchell. I'd go there at 35 and look to trade up from round 3 to the back of round 2 to grab JPJ or Frazier, whichever one is still there. Frazier is the most ready to play day 1 and has the higher floor.

[CrimsonFox]

Hooray. The adorable cardinals took a RB

[JPhillips]

Not at all impressed with the Cards on day 2.

[QuikSand]

So, here's the Cards' draft:

Round
1
·
Pick 4
(4)
Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR
Ohio State
Round
1
·
Pick 27
(27)
Darius Robinson
DE
Missouri
HOU>ARI
Round
2
·
Pick 11
(43)
Max Melton
CB
Rutgers
ATL>ARI
Round
3
·
Pick 2
(66)
Trey Benson
RB
Florida State
Round
3
·
Pick 7
(71)
Isaiah Adams
G
Illinois
TEN>ARI
Round
3
·
Pick 18
(82)
Tip Reiman
TE
Illinois
IND>ARI
Round
3
·
Pick 27
(90)
Elijah Jones
CB
Boston College
HOU>ARI
Round
4
·
Pick 4
(104)
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson
SAF
Texas Tech
Round
5
·
Pick 3
(138)
Xavier Thomas
EDGE
Clemson
Round
5
·
Pick 27
(162)
Christian Jones
OT
Texas
HOU>ARI
Round
6
·
Pick 15
(191)
Tejhaun Palmer
WR
UAB
IND>ARI
Round
7
·
Pick 6
(226)
Jaden Davis
DB
Miami
NYG>ARI


Mixed reviews, overall. Not many guys I had in mind for them, to be honest. I had been taking a TE in most mocks, but never considered this guy whom they took ahead of some other logicals. Same for the RB - different guy than I had been trying to send them in the same general zone of the draft.

[CrimsonFox]

Also undrafted free agents

Arizona Cardinals
Colorado WR Xavier Weaver (source)
North Carolina IDL Myles Murphy (source)
North Carolina LS Joe Shimko (source)

[CrimsonFox]

hahaha there is a separate position wasted on this?

Long Snapper (LS) – The long snapper 'snaps' or passes the ball between his/her legs back to the punter. Holder (H) – The Holder will catch the ball from the long snapper's pass and hold it in place for the Kicker Placekicker. The Holder will usually position him/herself 7-8 yards behind the offensive line.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Mixed reviews, overall. Not many guys I had in mind for them, to be honest. I had been taking a TE in most mocks, but never considered this guy whom they took ahead of some other logicals. Same for the RB - different guy than I had been trying to send them in the same general zone of the draft.

I don't mind the first 3 picks, but it feels like there really wasn't much creativity in leveraging the number of picks they had throughout the draft. They were positioned to maneuver as much as they wanted. Robinson, specifically, feels like a guy they could have traded down (and potentially back up) to get or taken someone else and moved up from 43 to get earlier in the 2nd.

Lets say you take Wiggins at 27 and move up a few picks in round 2 to get Robinson. It seems like something that would have been very doable and you land an elite corner prospect and the same edge guy you wanted and it costs you probably a mid round pick that you have in excess. No not a knock on Melton, but the dropoff between Wiggins and Melton seems fairly large.

[QuikSand]

From PFF:

ARIZONA CARDINALS: B+
1 (4): WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
1 (27): EDGE Darius Robinson, Missouri
2 (43): CB Max Melton, Rutgers
3 (66): RB Trey Benson, Florida State
3 (71): OT Isaiah Adams, Illinois
3 (82): TE Tip Reiman, Illinois
3 (90): CB Elijah Jones, Boston College
4 (104): S Taylor Dadrion-Demerson , Texas Tech
5 (138): EDGE Xavier Thomas, Clemson
5 (162): OT Christian Jones, Texas
5 (191): WR Tejhaun Palmer, UAB
7 (226): CB Jaden Davis, Miami

Harrison — The Cardinals didn’t receive a trade offer that enticed them to move down for the second straight season. Instead, they get the No. 1 overall prospect on the consensus big board and one of the cleanest projections in the entire draft. Despite dealing with a step down in quarterback play last year, Harrison is one of two wide receivers who generated more than 1.0 PFF Wins Above Average (WAA) over the last two seasons.

Robinson — Robinson’s strength is his calling card. He played primarily on the interior before moving to the edge and posting career-highs with an 83.1 overall PFF grade and nine sacks. He was also the only SEC edge player to earn a 76.0-plus grade in run defense and rushing the passer. Arizona desperately needed to get more physical up front. The Cardinals accomplished that, but it’s possible that he would’ve been on the board early in the next round.

Melton — The run on cornerbacks continues. Melton, the 72nd-ranked player on the PFF big board, allowed just a 65.7 passer rating into his coverage in 2023 and totaled 15 pass breakups since 2021, the fourth-best mark in the Big Ten. The Cardinals could have targeted almost any position here and been filling a need. Melton projects as a slot cornerback but brings versatility, having played inside and outside in college.

Benson — The second running back off the board, Benson earned a 91.3 PFF grade over the last two seasons, eighth among Power Five running backs. Dynamic with the ball in his hands, he forced 124 missed tackles on 310 carries since 2022. He should immediately compete for touches behind James Conner in Arizona.

Adams — Adams played at Illinois but will likely kick inside to guard at the next level. He put up an 81.1 run-blocking grade over the past two seasons, sixth among draft-eligible tackles in this class. However, he gave up nine sacks from 518 pass-blocking snaps in 2023 alone and 13 sacks on 992 pass-blocking snaps over the past two seasons.

Reiman — A late riser through the pre-draft process, Reiman was a workout warrior and caught a ton of attention at the Shrine Bowl and NFL scouting combine. He wasn’t asked to be much more than a dump-off threat for Illinois and didn’t drop a pass on his 24 targets in 2023. He really shines as a run-blocker, where his play strength and competitiveness stand out.

Jones — The Cardinals continue to add to the secondary and pick an enforcer in Jones. The Boston College product is PFF’s 225th-ranked player but allowed just an 18.1 passer rating on throws into his coverage, the third-best mark among CBs, while his 89.8 coverage grade ranked eighth. Jones brings a physical playstyle as the Cardinals look to fill holes in their roster.

Dadrion-Demerson — Taylor-Demerson has been a ball hawk his entire college career, with his 10 interceptions since 2021 ranking third among Power Five safeties in that span. Opposing quarterbacks managed a passer rating of 58.4 when throwing into his coverage during his college career.

Thomas — Thomas gained a ton of experience in his six-year college career while racking up 153 quarterback pressures and 22 sacks, capped by a career-high 43 pressures in his final college season. He gives the Cardinals another solid piece in their defensive line overhaul.

Jones — Jones brings plenty of experience, having played 3,219 career offensive snaps for Texas over the past five seasons. He showed improvement throughout his college career, too. Jones’ 77.8 PFF grade in 2023 was the highest of his college career. Arizona brought in Jonah Williams this offseason as the projected starter opposite 2023 first-round pick Paris Johnson Jr., but Jones is a nice depth addition to that group.

Palmer — Palmer was productive in each of his final two seasons at UAB, averaging 2.00 and 2.15 yards per route run in 2022 and 2023, respectively. He dropped just 2.1% of the catchable passes thrown his way and averaged 8.8 yards after the catch in 2023.

Davis — Davis was targeted 49 times in coverage in 2023. He allowed 28 receptions and one touchdown, adding five forced incompletions and six defensive stops.

[Thomkal]

Athletic ranked their class 5th overall. but really hard to say for sure how good a draft it was for them until they get on the field and play. Nothing spectacular to me after the first round but hopefully some shine come camp. Their emphasis on the secondary seems to me the coaches thought that was their weakest area, but it could have been best player available at their pick too. I think we have to have a couple successes there for the class to really be good. i think their fourth round pick, S Dadrian-Demerson might be one those successes but we shall see.

[QuikSand]

That write-up on TE Reiman has moved me back toward liking the pick okay. If they land a legit blocking-first TE2 who can catch a few but mostly help move people, that seems like a great complement to an impact receiving TE, and among the more unheralded difference-makers to a legit NFL offense.

[CrimsonFox]

Harrison Jr holding out for more money and hasn't signed the NFLPA deal yet.
This means people can't buy his jersey or he won't appear in Madden yet. In a word...who cares...

[QuikSand]

After meeting with the #Titans yesterday, Zay Jones now has a #Cardinals visit lined up:https://t.co/QJtZLu0AJH

— Pro Football Rumors (@pfrumors) May 7, 2024

I'm not really a fan, but if we want this offense to work well this year, I reckon Zay Jones would be a useful piece, at the right price. Thoughts?

[Honolulu_Blue]

Looking at our beloved WR depth chart, we have: MHJ, Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Zach Pascal and others...

He was banged up most of last year. He was decently effective 2022 with over 800 yards receiving and five touchdowns. Is he really filling a need here? Michael Wilson had a pretty decent rookie year. MHJ should be a stud, and Dortch is your small slot guy. I guess Jones is a decent option as insurance/back-up role for outside receiver in case Wilson or MHJ get hurt. He'd be an upgrade over Zach Pascal.

I wouldn't sign him for anything more than a 1-year deal. We've got the cap space.

When he got cut, I was thinking he wouldn't be a terrible Josh Reynolds replacement for the Lions, so I think he may still have some value.

(Note: I may have a bit of a Zay Jones bias because I picked him up off waivers and had him on my fantasy football team for that game against Dallas when he scored 3 TDs in 2022. Huge FF win for me.)