Werewolf CXVIIIb XTreme - WOLVES WIN

[mauchow]

Great write up.

[mauchow]

The details. Brilliant.

[PackerFanatic]

I have never seen such an anti-climatic lynching - not having allegiances revealed sucks, lol

[Autumn]

This is a needed antidote after the Dark Knight writeups. Be careful or I may not even do writeups!

[spleen1015]

I am surprised by the lack of activity near the deadline.

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Autumn

This is a needed antidote after the Dark Knight writeups. Be careful or I may not even do writeups!

I wasn't so much ripping the writeup, just the fact that you can't really add much more without giving anything away. Just different

[Autumn]

You all wake up in the morning. All of you but one. You are shocked to discover Chubby's door has been broken down and only a few grisly remains are left.

[JAG]

Well, that about takes away any chance Mau was a wolf, as otherwise his D1 vote switch doesn't make a lot of sense. Best we can hope for is he was the sorcerer.

[PackerFanatic]

And leads me to believe he might have been onto something with bhlloy.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by JAG

Well, that about takes away any chance Mau was a wolf, as otherwise his D1 vote switch doesn't make a lot of sense. Best we can hope for is he was the sorcerer.

Agreed and that makes everyone who voted for him a suspect, even you JAG.

[JAG]

My two cents on reveals today:

1. I think the priest should probably not come out at this point, except in the unlikely case Mau was a wolf. If he was the sorcerer, a post right at the next nighttime deadline revealing that info would probably be good.

2. I suggest the seer come out if they have a wolf, that's a no-brainer I think. If they can clear 3 people (themselves and their two scans), I think that's pretty strongly worth revealing as well, as we can't afford not to lynch a wolf D1+D2 (unless we lynch the sorcerer, but that's not nearly as good). Clearing two people, could be worth the risk to hold off revealing until right at the nighttime deadline in case they get NK'ed, but it's a tougher judgment call.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Agreed and that makes everyone who voted for him a suspect, even you JAG.

Both bhlloy and I are the only two to vote for strongly suspected non-wolves D1, so I would expect some misguided heat today though I think I've been pretty clearly trying to classify people as best I can. Speaking of which...

Can you explain why you kept your vote on a non-candidate rather than choosing between the top two vote getters?

[JAG]

People of interest today:

bhlloy: Only unknown on Chubby after the first seven votes yesterday, unknown on Mau at end of day.
PF: Unknown on Mau at end of day, voted for known villager during first seven votes yesterday.
Zinto: Only unknown on bhlloy at end of vote yesterday (looks better for him if bhlloy is a wolf, worse for him if bhlloy is villager)
Narcizo: Unknown on Mau at end of day.
spleen: Stayed out of showdown yesterday.
Danny: UTR / no-show D1

That should cover everyone. . Have a good evening.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by JAG

Can you explain why you kept your vote on a non-candidate rather than choosing between the top two vote getters?

With the heavy suspicion on mauboy and with him being the leading vote getter, I didn't see any reason to move my vote. I didn't want to pile on when he was already getting lynched. If the situation had changed at all I would have re-evaluated.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by JAG

Well, that about takes away any chance Mau was a wolf, as otherwise his D1 vote switch doesn't make a lot of sense. Best we can hope for is he was the sorcerer.

I don't necessarily follow this... and I definitely don't follow PF's logic that puts me under more suspicion, as I also made the switch off Chubby onto a second candidate.

If you could both explain for the slow one at the back, I'd appreciate it

[bhlloy]

I do find it very interesting that Mau was pushing so hard for the NK victim to be the priest scan rather than him. I have no idea why he would push so hard for that

[Narcizo]

Meh! I was hoping for a bit more to work with when I came in. Not an awful lot happened after I left yesterday. Ho hum. I think it looks 95% certain that mau was a villager and presumably vanilla. Chubby seems a strange choice for a kill - role hunting seems to be the most likely cause so I'll go back and see if I can see any hint of that. Other than that? :shurg:

[Narcizo]

#33 - 09:54 - mauboy1 votes Chubby(1)
#44 - 10:10 - Narcizo votes PackerFanatic(1)
#45 - 10:10 - PackerFanatic votes JAG(1)
#47 - 10:18 - JAG votes Chubby(2)
#48 - 10:36 - Chubby votes JAG(2)
#51 - 10:46 - spleen1015 votes PackerFanatic(2)
#52 - 11:07 - bhlloy votes Chubby(3)

#56 - 11:30 - mauboy1 - unvote Chubby(2), vote bhlloy(1)
#78 - 13:31 - Zinto votes Bhlloy (2)
#86 - 14:12 - JAG - unvote Chubby (1), vote mau (1)
#88 - 14:19 - Packer - unvote JAG (1), vote mau (2)
#89 - 14:23 - Narcizo - unvote Packer (1), vote mau (3)
#128 - 17:15 - Chubby - unvote JAG (0), vote bhlloy (3)
#129 - 17:16 - Bhlloy - unvote Chubby (0), vote mau (4)

1 PackerFanatic - spleen (51)
3 Bhlloy - mau (56), Zinto (78), Chubby (128)
4 Mau - JAG (86), Packer (88), Narcizo (89), Bhlloy (129)

No vote: Danny

Even my most conspiracy-seeking fanatic side can't see anyway Chubby isn't a villager. I think it's very likely that mau is a villager - the only thing is that he clearly didn't want to be scanned by the priest. So if the priest did scan him (there's no-one else he could have scanned) and he was a wolf then I would say the priest should come right out because I think that that would pretty much blow the whole game open.

[Narcizo]

If mau wasn't a wolf then we have to bag a wolf today or hope that the sorceror is dead/will die, or it's likely game over tomorrow. I don't like it but I think that means we have to hope that Danny is a villager for now. We're coming towards end game so we can't afford to take our chances there with no read on him.

Otherwise:

Narcizo - unknown, switches to likely villager
Packer - unknown, switches to likely villager
JAG - villager, switches to likely villager
spleen - unknown
bhlloy - villager, switches to likely villager
Zinto - unknown

There are a whole bunch of ways to read this. Were JAG or Packer worried to be in the mix and felt that they had a better chance of saving themselves by pushing mau? Possibly. Is someone trying to set Bhlloy or Zinto up? Kind of clumsy but still possible.

My thoughts at the moment (likely to change during the day ) is that spleen's throwaway vote smells of a wolf not wanting to commit to giving the coup de grace to a villager (Mau or, presumably, Bhlloy). Why would a villager not want to pile on if he thought mau was a wolf? Doesn't make any sense to me. For now I'm going to go that way.

Vote spleen

[JAG]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I don't necessarily follow this... and I definitely don't follow PF's logic that puts me under more suspicion, as I also made the switch off Chubby onto a second candidate.

If you could both explain for the slow one at the back, I'd appreciate it

If Mau was a wolf, it doesn't make a lot of sense for him to switch off a villager to presumably another villager, especially when the wolves deemed the player he was already voting to be the best option for a NK.

[Danny]

So sorry guys, I thought day 1 was going to be tomorrow. I had people over all day and didn't use the computer at all.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Meh! I was hoping for a bit more to work with when I came in. Not an awful lot happened after I left yesterday. Ho hum. I think it looks 95% certain that mau was a villager and presumably vanilla. Chubby seems a strange choice for a kill - role hunting seems to be the most likely cause so I'll go back and see if I can see any hint of that. Other than that? :shurg:

They were definitely role-hunting, after he picked up vote #3 he said something like, If you want the village to win you shouldn't be voting me.

[Danny]

I'm really tired, but I'll catch up and be active in the afternoon and evening for tomorrow's lynch

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by JAG

If Mau was a wolf, it doesn't make a lot of sense for him to switch off a villager to presumably another villager, especially when the wolves deemed the player he was already voting to be the best option for a NK.

At the time I thought a possible explanation might be villager-villager-villager with Bhlloy being another villager and mau a wolf, covering all his bases. That would mean Packer, Chubby and you being villagers and Bhlloy being one as well. Leaving spleen, Zinto or danny as the other wolf. In the cold light of day I've got to admit that looks a bit of a reach.

I also considered sorceror trying to cause confusion but I don't see why mau wouldn't fake reveal if he was the sorceror. He could, at least, try to flush out a role that way. In fact he'd probably do the same were he a wolf, so I think it's pretty likely he was vanilla.

Dunno if they you can make the argument about the switch in terms of the night kill though, as they might not have a read of chubby as having a role until after he switched - or it might have been the other wolf who decided chubby should take the fall.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by JAG

They were definitely role-hunting, after he picked up vote #3 he said something like, If you want the village to win you shouldn't be voting me.

I think "definitely" is an over-statement, I can see other options there but the village better hope that the comment was just a case of chubby over-playing his own importance as a villager, something he also did in the last game.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Danny

So sorry guys, I thought day 1 was going to be tomorrow. I had people over all day and didn't use the computer at all.

After consideration - why's Danny still alive on day two? We all know what that means.

Unvote spleen
Vote Danny

[Narcizo]

God, I hate being here on my own for most of the day. I thought at least JAG might have said something.

Unvote danny
vote Spleen

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

If mau wasn't a wolf then we have to bag a wolf today or hope that the sorceror is dead/will die, or it's likely game over tomorrow. I don't like it but I think that means we have to hope that Danny is a villager for now. We're coming towards end game so we can't afford to take our chances there with no read on him.

Otherwise:

Narcizo - unknown, switches to likely villager
Packer - unknown, switches to likely villager
JAG - villager, switches to likely villager
spleen - unknown
bhlloy - villager, switches to likely villager
Zinto - unknown

There are a whole bunch of ways to read this. Were JAG or Packer worried to be in the mix and felt that they had a better chance of saving themselves by pushing mau? Possibly. Is someone trying to set Bhlloy or Zinto up? Kind of clumsy but still possible.

My thoughts at the moment (likely to change during the day ) is that spleen's throwaway vote smells of a wolf not wanting to commit to giving the coup de grace to a villager (Mau or, presumably, Bhlloy). Why would a villager not want to pile on if he thought mau was a wolf? Doesn't make any sense to me. For now I'm going to go that way.

Vote spleen

I didn't want to pile on because I was afraid that's where attention would be today if mauboy turned out to be a villager, which we don't know for sure yet, might I add.

You guys can lynch me and lose another villager.

Assuming that mauboy was a villager, bhlloy was the first person to accuse him of being a Wolf.

VOTE BHLLOY

[spleen1015]

Dola,

So much for not voting for me Narcizo!

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

God, I hate being here on my own for most of the day. I thought at least JAG might have said something.

Unvote danny
vote Spleen

Sorry, I don't have much else I can think of than what I already suggested. The other villagers really need to step up their game for today.

[Narcizo]

I meant about my joke vote on Danny. But I agree quiet village = dead village.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Dola,

So much for not voting for me Narcizo!

Yeah, I noticed that. In my defence you stopped doing it so I had to do it all my own self in the morning.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I didn't want to pile on because I was afraid that's where attention would be today if mauboy turned out to be a villager, which we don't know for sure yet, might I add.

Wolves are afraid of attention, villagers are only afraid of attention if it's distracting. The Lord knows that there isn't so much going on here that that's going to be a problem.

I'm still not liking your reason for not moving your vote if you were even 40/60 on mau being a wolf. The vote stands 4-3-1 but bhlloy has the earliest vote. Someone might switch votes up before deadline and it's bhlloy who gets strung up. Or Danny might come in and vote bhlloy and bhlloy is for the chop. Keeping your vote where it was just means you avoid having to commit to the lynch, leaving you free to accuse anyone who voted for one of the candidates.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Wolves are afraid of attention, villagers are only afraid of attention if it's distracting. The Lord knows that there isn't so much going on here that that's going to be a problem.

I'm still not liking your reason for not moving your vote if you were even 40/60 on mau being a wolf. The vote stands 4-3-1 but bhlloy has the earliest vote. Someone might switch votes up before deadline and it's bhlloy who gets strung up. Or Danny might come in and vote bhlloy and bhlloy is for the chop. Keeping your vote where it was just means you avoid having to commit to the lynch, leaving you free to accuse anyone who voted for one of the candidates.

Admittedly, I'm not very good at WW. This is why I don't play.

I see what you are saying, but I assure your I'm just another villager. Lynching me today puts us too far behind to recover, IMO. It will be 3-2.

Maybe that is what you want? You and JAG seem to be controlling the action, shooting accusations around. It is likely that one or both of you are wolves.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

If mau wasn't a wolf then we have to bag a wolf today or hope that the sorceror is dead/will die, or it's likely game over tomorrow. I don't like it but I think that means we have to hope that Danny is a villager for now. We're coming towards end game so we can't afford to take our chances there with no read on him.

Otherwise:

Narcizo - unknown, switches to likely villager
Packer - unknown, switches to likely villager
JAG - villager, switches to likely villager
spleen - unknown
bhlloy - villager, switches to likely villager
Zinto - unknown

There are a whole bunch of ways to read this. Were JAG or Packer worried to be in the mix and felt that they had a better chance of saving themselves by pushing mau? Possibly. Is someone trying to set Bhlloy or Zinto up? Kind of clumsy but still possible.

My thoughts at the moment (likely to change during the day ) is that spleen's throwaway vote smells of a wolf not wanting to commit to giving the coup de grace to a villager (Mau or, presumably, Bhlloy). Why would a villager not want to pile on if he thought mau was a wolf? Doesn't make any sense to me. For now I'm going to go that way.

Vote spleen

It troubles me that you are saying that all of the folks who voted for mauboy yesterday are likely villagers. What are the odds that none of the 4 are WW? This raises the red flag for me. Combine that with the fact that you've come after me pretty hard today when I know that I am a villager tells me something.

UNVOTE BHLLOY
VOTE NARCIZO

[Narcizo]

I think you might be misunderstanding what I said. I'm saying that those people switched their vote to mau (who is a likely villager in my opinion). I'm honestly confused about how what you quoted can be misinterpreted but so be it.

Should it, against all odds, turn out that mau was a wolf then I do think it's safe to say that people on him, barring bhlloy who didn't really have much choice, are pretty trustworthy.

Saying that JAG and I are controlling the action and shooting off accusations is annoying but I guess that's in the eye of the beholder. You've currently moved from bhlloy being a wolf to JAG and/or me being one. Ho hum.

[spleen1015]

Well, shit. You're right. I did misunderstand what you were saying. I thought you were saying that they were 'switching to likely villager' in your mind.

Yeah, I f*cked that all up.

It doesn't change the fact that I still think you're a wolf based on how you've come ofter me today when in all likelihood there's a wolf in the 4 that voted for mauboy. I'm still suspicious of bhlloy, but my feelings are stronger for you being a wolf. So, I'll keep my vote where it is for the time being.

[PackerFanatic]

At this point, my vote is likely going to be between bhlloy and Spleen. I think we can potentially learn something from bhlloy since that is where most of the other votes were yesterday. Spleen's vote, on the other hand, is glaring to me, and one of those "I am staying out of the way" votes (plus it was on me, and I know I am a villager)

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

It doesn't change the fact that I still think you're a wolf based on how you've come ofter me today when in all likelihood there's a wolf in the 4 that voted for mauboy. I'm still suspicious of bhlloy, but my feelings are stronger for you being a wolf. So, I'll keep my vote where it is for the time being.

Well, fair enough. You're wrong about me and everything but, you know, I would say that. If you're a villager your play today has given the wolves all the opportunity in the world to jump on you or me today, and then point at the other tomorrow and say that that person led the charge. So I guess I better hope that voting you was the right move.

For future reference how should I come after you if I think there's a better than base chance that you're a baddy?

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Well, fair enough. You're wrong about me and everything but, you know, I would say that. If you're a villager your play today has given the wolves all the opportunity in the world to jump on you or me today, and then point at the other tomorrow and say that that person led the charge. So I guess I better hope that voting you was the right move.

For future reference how should I come after you if I think there's a better than base chance that you're a baddy?

If you think I'm a baddy, then come after me however you want. My problem is that you're coming after me period.

Given the current situation, I wouldn't come after me. I would focus on the folks that moved to mauboy. He set himself up nicely to get lynched and one or both of the wolves jumped on the opportunity. Instead of focusing on one of those targets, you focused on me. That tells me one or more of those 4 is the right place to look and since you're one of those 4...

I could be a baddy that didn't move his vote or I could be an inexperienced player who has also played very poorly in the past who made moves that led to his suspicion when he wasn't a baddy that got him lynched.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

If you think I'm a baddy, then come after me however you want. My problem is that you're coming after me period.

Given the current situation, I wouldn't come after me. I would focus on the folks that moved to mauboy. He set himself up nicely to get lynched and one or both of the wolves jumped on the opportunity. Instead of focusing on one of those targets, you focused on me. That tells me one or more of those 4 is the right place to look and since you're one of those 4...

I could be a baddy that didn't move his vote or I could be an inexperienced player who has also played very poorly in the past who made moves that led to his suspicion when he wasn't a baddy that got him lynched.

I don't agree with you (me voting a Mau voter is a 1/3 chance of getting a wolf vs. 2/7 random vote, not much difference unless you think both wolves are there), but I appreciate you putting out something to consider.

[bhlloy]

Vote Spleen

Seems like the best direction to go in today, knowing what we know about the vote yesterday.

I'm a little suspicious of JAG and PF given the votes yesterday. Both were in the race and then Mau gets pushed ahead and they are never mentioned again. I doubt two wolves put back to back votes on Mau like that but I could definitely see one wolf vote in there. In fact I'd be pretty confident about it.

I'm also not 100% as sold on Mau definitely not being a wolf. If the wolves were role hunting, then Chubby might not have been the target at the time of his switch. I've seen Mau play this crazy before, as a wolf and not as a wolf. His insistence that we not use the scan on him because he's just vanilla and to use it elsewhere doesn't smell right to me. So... I'm keeping an open mind and hopefully down the road we get the priest to confirm one way or the other

[spleen1015]

69 - 03:24 - Narcizo votes spleen1015(1)
176 - 05:45 - Narcizo unvotes spleen1015(0), votes Danny(1)
177 - 05:59 - Narcizo unvotes Danny(0), votes spleen1015(1)
178 - 06:18 - spleen1015 votes bhlloy(1)
185 - 08:22 - spleen1015 unvotes bhlloy(0), votes Narcizo(1)
192 - 10:15 - bhlloy votes spleen1015(2)

2 - spleen1015 - Narcizo(177), bhlloy(192)
1 - Narcizo - spleen1015(185)

Yet to vote
Danny
JAG
PackerFanatic
Zinto

[JAG]

Narcizo, how much longer will you be around today? I have some thoughts and would like your reaction / input, but it would be better if we could hear from Zinto and Danny before I toss them out (though no idea if that's in the cards).

[Narcizo]

I'm usually around until 16:00-ish I think.

[Zinto]

Hello everyone.

I know that my vote and Spleen's vote look bad. As a villager if someone else was in my shoes I would vote for me especially as the game went on. I would to give you the "why would a wolf isolate their vote" excuse but it is terrible.

[mauchow]

Me-post leader. Hell yeah!

[Zinto]

Also considering where the voting ended up if Bhlloy is a villager then either Spleen or I would most likely be a wolf. I am not ready to vote Spleen just because of that since I am not sure Bhlloy is a villager.

[Zinto]

Well also Danny could be a wolf in that theory since he had no vote. The reason being is if there where two villagers on the block late why would the wolves stack their votes on Mau?

[Zinto]

If Bhlloy is a wolf then there most likely was two wolves on Mau so that Bhlloy could survive. I am not sure what theory you think is correct. At this point I have no idea either way.