Not cherry picking. I looked at all of the stats and the guy said that he did more simulations than that one and the stats were similarly off.
Sure someone can fall off statistically from one year to the next but tell me, when have you ever seen someone pass for over 4,000 yards and lead the NFL in yards and throw for 13 TDs? Especially a player that has never thrown for less than 26 TDs. Every year that he's thrown for over 4,000 yards he averages in the mid 30's or so.