Madden NFL 11 News Post

Madden Sales Down 18% Y-o-Y in October

04:01 PM - November 17, 2010 by RaychelSnr

One more nugget from the Cowen and Company piece is that Madden sales are in fact down 18% year over year for the month of October:

Quote:


	"Even with disappointments for NHL 11 and Medal of Honor, EA's software sales grew 17 percent year over year in October. EA Sports MMA sold 45,000 units, and the Madden NFL franchise is down 18 percent year over year."

If you recall, I predicted in a blog post back in late August ('Are Madden Sales Slipping?') that Madden sales would probably end up down even after initial reports showed the game's sales were up 12% back in August. But an 18% drop was far more than I ever expected, that's nearly a 1/5 cut in top-line revenue from one of EA's biggest franchises on a Y-o-Y basis. If the trend continues, Madden sales could end up down substantially with the all-important Winter Shopping Season approaching.

That's incredibly bad news.

There is a lot of speculation as to why sales have slowed so much so fast, but I believe the reasons are the same now as I initially thought back then: consumers aren't impressed with the direction of the Madden series with so many other options for them to partake in. The longevity of the game is definitely in question and the word of mouth factor seems to be non-existent this year.

This is easily a referendum on the direction of the direction of the series, especially if trends continue to hold through December. I initially thought there wouldn't be much panic from the suits at EA, but this was before the Elite Fiasco hit the world, so now you can never be too careful when trying to prognosticate what EA might do next.

No doubt the decision makers at EA know exactly about the slip in sales of the Madden franchise, which are slowing substantially moreso than previous years after being on store shelves. So whatever panic decisions/reshuffling you would expect have probably already been made in some regards, although some may not be made until the Christmas shopping season is over. There is definitely increasing pressure on the Madden team to perform, and if sales do come in flat to somewhat down there could be some changes to the gameplan going forward.

This is definitely not good news for gamers who have liked the direction of Madden for the past couple of years if this trend holds into the Christmas shopping season. Also just as alarming is Madden's shrinking sales to the hardcore gamers on the top platforms, with sales down between 30% and 40% depending on how you calculate game sales and from whom from it's high in the middle of the last decade.

This is an interesting story we'll continue to follow. In the meantime, do you think we'll see some big changes in the direction for Madden NFL 12?

[ Update ] It's not clear whether Cowen and Company's analyst was commenting on the entire sales volume from Aug-Oct or just in the Month of October. Either way, that would only slightly give the news a bit less negativity for EA -- but it'd still be very negative news. We'll keep on this story.

[ Update #2 ] After analyzing the data and receiving word from a few trusted analysts this is definitely a Monthly drop from last October of 18%. This means after Madden sales started out on a rush, they have plummeted as the product has stayed on store shelves. The real test will be the Christmas shopping season. Roughly 30% of Madden's sales come from Christmas-time sales. If sales are still down substantially in November and then December, things could get ugly for EA. As it is right now though, this is a sharp drop worth watching. Edited the original article to reflect these clarifications.

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Member Comments

# 141 FlyingFinn @ 11/19/10 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bxgoods


	Why are people compare Madden with NBA 2k so much? Do y'all actually look at sale numbers before you talk? NBA2K11 has sold. 53 million to date on in 6 weeks on 360 Madden 11 sold. 6 mill in its first week on 360. Why do y'all get the opinion NBA 2k is selling so much better than Madden? It ain't. Sim games aren't selling better than Madden either, the only game EA reps will try to mimic is FIFA, that's the only sports game now that is making a lot of money besides Madden.

The thing is NBA 2k sales have increased roughly 400% in the last 2 years while Madden's sales are declining. That is the real story as people are trying to blame the economy for Madden's decline but with another sports title gaining so many customers, it is hard to believe that claim.

Oh and as for what Madden needs... some one early said it best: Quit giving us what you think we want and give us what we want. One example is their beyond broadcast presentation. We don't want that. We want what we see every Sunday on TV. If we didn't like what we saw on Sundays, it would show in the ratings and the networks would have changed to accommodate.

# 142 TreFacTor @ 11/19/10 10:57 AM

I have read a overwhelming number of times in this thread that the economy is bad and that can be attributed to low Madden sales. I can't really see this as a reputable explanation. There are games that have sold record breaking numbers in the time of the recession. Quite simply, if Madden was the best it could be, skipped the gimmicks and didn't try to nickel and dime it's customers, there is absolutely no reason it couldn't set sales records on it's own. Look at the demographic of the video gamer in general. Aside from the Wii, the demographic of those who own a 360 and PS3 are of legal drinking age with some type of disposable income. Whether that means being able to buy 1 game a month or more, Madden simply isn't reaching that demographic, and I would contend it is because of the gimmicks over improvements as the reason why.

You may not want to, but madden has to be compared sales wise with all other titles that sell well or poorly. While games like COD, RDR, ODST etc sell well, madden has sold only as expected or worse. Is that really enough for EA...about the same amount of people bought the game as last year? Is that really what you want to hear after you put out simpler, quicker, deeper? Whatever numbers are used the decline in sales can be directly attributed to hardcore fans skipping buying the game this year. If the numbers stay the same, the game will have sold about a million less than last year (my estimate only).

What will next years gimmick be? Will it turn even more fans away? I think the main issue is denial. You can't possibly begin to fix the issues with the game or the loss of sales until the problems are identified and fixed. We can ask for whatever we as hardcore want, but are these the same issues identified by Ea as areas of concern. If not, Madden 12 may very well follow the usual pattern of 3 new gimmicks, 1 changed or missing feature, a new cover athlete (Mike Vick is my prediction, making history as MVP, comeback player of the year, and repeat Ea cover athlete) and wash and repeat of all the past problems with a fresh coat of paint.

# 143 PhillsPhan26 @ 11/19/10 11:00 AM

I one of the 18%, I did not buy Madden this cause for the simple fact that players do not look real while running. Almost every other sports game player animation look realistic except Madden.

"Even with disappointments for NHL 11"? Thats fine and dandy but I can play NHL year round, year after year.

# 144 DaveDQ @ 11/19/10 11:23 AM

It's not the economy. It's not any of the other external excuses that some may claim.

Madden football has run on the fuel of an exclusive license that claims the sole rights to produce an NFL game on these consoles. That alone is their guarantee for a purchase. It's a big party on release day, but the honeymoon is over very quickly.

The game has no soul. We know this. Right now we tolerate Madden because that's all there is. Nothing in the game shouts ingenuity or uniqueness. Nothing reaches out to the sports gamer and lights a fire. That's why so many compare it to NBA 2K. You look at a franchise like 2K basketball and you say, "Damn, I'd like to get my hands on that." With Madden, you look at it and think, "It has the NFL."

The game has no soul. It rides on the strong brand of the National Football League and counts on that to deliver.

# 145 FlyingFinn @ 11/19/10 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaveDQ


	The game has no soul. We know this. Right now we tolerate Madden because that's all there is. Nothing in the game shouts ingenuity or uniqueness. Nothing reaches out to the sports gamer and lights a fire. That's why so many compare it to NBA 2K. You look at a franchise like 2K basketball and you say, "Damn, I'd like to get my hands on that." With Madden, you look at it and think, "It has the NFL." The game has no soul. It rides on the strong brand of the National Football League and counts on that to deliver.

I am not even a basketball fan but I bought NBA 2k11 based on some strong word of mouth reviews and it has been the game I have played the most in the last month. The level of immersion is that high...

# 146 rawcorp @ 11/19/10 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bxgoods


	Why are people compare Madden with NBA 2k so much? Do y'all actually look at sale numbers before you talk? NBA2K11 has sold. 53 million to date on in 6 weeks on 360 Madden 11 sold. 6 mill in its first week on 360. Why do y'all get the opinion NBA 2k is selling so much better than Madden? It ain't. Sim games aren't selling better than Madden either, the only game EA reps will try to mimic is FIFA, that's the only sports game now that is making a lot of money besides Madden.

The NBA is a smaller product than the NFL. The NFL is the #1 most popular sport. The NBA is ranked #3. There are more NFL fans than NBA fans. Madden series has been around way longer than NBA 2K series. Madden should sell more copies.

But the point is Madden's sales keep declining every year, while NBA 2k keeps increasing because NBA 2K is actually a quality product.

# 147 rawcorp @ 11/19/10 12:25 PM

I hope it drops to 100% so that EA will finally listen to us and improve the Madden series.

# 148 pietasterp @ 11/19/10 01:45 PM

I think another point worth mentioning is that a game doesn't necessarily have to be more complicated or difficult to play in order to be more "sim". I mean, you don't have to have 80 different button combo presses to make your linebacker drop into coverage off of a blitz look. You can accomplish the same by making the CPU AI smarter and bundling common actions into simple commands. Of course, you can leave in the manual, control-everything-down-to-a-shoelace type controls, but as a standard default the game should know to do things like send a receiver in motion and then jog him back to his spot on long passing formations/plays so you can see if the opponent is playing man vs zone, or creeping LB's up to the line of scrimmage slowly on blitz looks, etc. I mean, some of that stuff is in the game, but I feel like I have to know too many commands to get my team to do things that I want them to do.

In that sense, I think I'm a good example of what they should be shooting for: I'm not a very skilled joystick jockey, but I want an absolutely realistic "sim" game (without taking out manual control options that you can start using if you get more advanced). You can be totally sim but still not alienate casual gamers; I don't think those two things are mutually exclusive. And I hate to say it, but the entire package, right down to the STILL awesome halftime/full time highlights and weekly clips from games around the league, has never been done better than NFL2k5...

# 149 Demoncrom @ 11/19/10 01:45 PM

Madden has been a just ok game for at least 5 years. Very few people I know care to play the game past the initial release month. The concepts within have begun to stale. Sad fact is - this is exactly what happens when there is no competition in the market. People want fresh and exciting and MAdden is not much of either. Don't get me wrong - this year game has it's fine points, but the problem is we can only compare it to the lackluster NFL games that EA has produced over the years.

# 150 BlingBling19 @ 11/19/10 01:51 PM

Madden just isn't all that fun anymore. It seems to be the same game every single year with perhaps a tiny change here or there. The strides other sports titles are making make madden look like a joke.

# 151 KingV2k3 @ 11/19/10 03:01 PM

They lost me (so far, anyway) b/c the focus has been "new" features rather than sim gameplay and prefected sim stat engine / franchise mode...

They need (IMHO) to factor in the human vs. CPU offline franchise player as well as the other target demos for this title...

# 152 DJDReW3102 @ 11/19/10 03:21 PM

this game is unimpressive because there are no new features or attractions to keep things fresh or whatnot. A stale game = stale sales.

# 153 Knight165 @ 11/19/10 03:36 PM

This is not an "I told you so" ....but this certainly makes me think back to the thread that had to do with EA stock(perhaps?)...and their bottom line. I remember the talk surrounding the license and it's effects on what Madden actually went from to what I knew it was coming to and that was a cash cow into somewhat of an albatross. You can focus on sales numbers all you want, but the NFL in it's own greed(although I wonder how much the giant EA pushed the NFL into an exclusive)....really screwed EA in "forcing" them(it was one or the other...EA or T2) to buy this license for an obscene amount of money. EA was losing money on it's bottom line(not from Madden itself...but the clear Madden money allowed them to lose money in other areas and absorb that loss...once the license gobbled that money up...the wiggle room for EA dried up) and it was a direct result of that yearly nut. They(EA) actually did a "good" job of hiding that money from it's prospectus pages...as I tried in vain to find those monies on the debit side to no avail.(I actually considered EA a good investment at one time!)
Truth be told...it's not one thing that's making this happen...it's a cumulative thing IMO.
Some, the license fee(and driving this title to be "the flagship" year after year....where instead of steady little improvements, the devs were forced to come up with the next big thing...and the suits breathing down their necks the whole time)...some bad economy....some poor choices in design and yes....some apathy from the user base.
I'm truly interested to see what happens when this and the baseball licenses are up. Will anyone feel forced to bit the bullet again or will the respective leagues see that their immense greed with the exclusive license(as opposed to a fee for any company willing to jump in the ring)?
Should be interesting.

M.K.
Knight165

# 154 TWood2K7 @ 11/19/10 04:03 PM

We will never get a good F****ing Football game from EA Until they have real legit competition. Point Blank

# 155 EnglishGamer @ 11/19/10 06:07 PM

Not surprising at all!

# 156 michigan21 @ 11/19/10 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pietasterp


	I think you are partially right, but then how do you explain how NBA2K is doing this year? I think the market and dollars are there for GOOD games, and people are simply voting with their wallets. Madden is just too bland at this point...if someone took the names off the guys, I'm not sure I could tell if I were playing this year's game or last year's game. There's no "wow" factor or pizzazz to the game. I'm personally waiting for another football epiphany like I had the first time I saw the original NFL2K in a mall game store 10 years ago. My jaw dropped and for the only time in my life, I walked into the store and bought a Dreamcast on the spot just to get that game. Maybe I'm expecting too much to think that will ever happen again, but I can't help but wonder, given the way NBA2k basically ran Live/Elite out of the market, how much better an NFL game could be out there right now if 2k were still in the game. Would Madden 11 have been canned in the face of an overwhelmingly superior NFL2k11? I guess we'll never know...

That is verbatim what happen to me when I went to the mall in 99. Babbage's had a display on with Carolina playing Tampa Bay and it was in the rain. Every step the players took made puddles. I stood there forever and was in awe of that game. Needless to say I bought a Dreamcast and the game. Still waiting for that feeling from Madden.

# 157 pietasterp @ 11/19/10 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by michigan21


	That is verbatim what happen to me when I went to the mall in 99. Babbage's had a display on with Carolina playing Tampa Bay and it was in the rain. Every step the players took made puddles. I stood there forever and was in awe of that game. Needless to say I bought a Dreamcast and the game. Still waiting for that feeling from Madden.

Word. I can tell you which mall it was to this day, too - that's how memorable it was. It was an Electronics Boutique for me, but props for bringing back the memories of Babbages (which they had one in Briarwood Mall at the time, near your school colors' campus)! I remember I went and asked the pimply-faced clerk at the desk (who was amazingly similar to the pimply-faced kid that works every minimum wage job in "The Simpsons") about the demo of NFL2K that was running in the store if that was actually a game you could play, since I honestly at first wasn't sure it was even a game...and he told me "yeah it's for Dreamcast". I was like "What the heck is Dreamcast?"...10 minutes later, I was the proud owner of a Sega Dreamcast and NFL2K. Nothing I've seen since then compares to the stunning first impression I had of that game. Maybe the first time I saw NBA2k on 360 with the sweat on the faces and jersey ripples....but that's still probably a 2nd place finisher to that glorious first look at NFL2k.

I'm waiting for that feeling again. I'm losing hope it's ever going to happen...at least not on this generation of game consoles. And not on EA's watch...

# 158 michigan21 @ 11/19/10 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pietasterp


	Word. I can tell you which mall it was to this day, too - that's how memorable it was. It was an Electronics Boutique for me, but props for bringing back the memories of Babbages (which they had one in Briarwood Mall at the time, near your school colors' campus)! I remember I went and asked the pimply-faced clerk at the desk (who was amazingly similar to the pimply-faced kid that works every minimum wage job in "The Simpsons") about the demo of NFL2K that was running in the store if that was actually a game you could play, since I honestly at first wasn't sure it was even a game...and he told me "yeah it's for Dreamcast". I was like "What the heck is Dreamcast?"...10 minutes later, I was the proud owner of a Sega Dreamcast and NFL2K. Nothing I've seen since then compares to the stunning first impression I had of that game. Maybe the first time I saw NBA2k on 360 with the sweat on the faces and jersey ripples....but that's still probably a 2nd place finisher to that glorious first look at NFL2k. I'm waiting for that feeling again. I'm losing hope it's ever going to happen...at least not on this generation of game consoles. And not on EA's watch...

Yea I bought my Dreamcast and Nfl2k from Babbage's in Jackson right down the road from AA. I played the hell out ot that game and Shenmue.

# 159 Gordy748 @ 11/20/10 07:49 AM

Well I think somebody at EA is aware of the problem with NFL, as much as it's a problem with a lot of their games. Hence the sudden shake-up.

Yesterday at an airport in Europe I was flicking through Game, a glossy mag this side of the pond. Their concluding review of a recent EA sports game was 7/10, concluding that the uninvolving career mode, extremely unfinished commentary and awkward gameplay were compromising factors that left the game as a major disappointment, and limited what it could have been.

You could be excused for thinking the review was for Madden, but it was actually MMA.

# 160 tril @ 11/20/10 08:12 AM

sales are down simply because of a number of other high profile releases, and a struggling economy.
IMO year over year stats are misleading, because the marketplace was different a year ago.
People are buying less. and most peopel will buy the newer releases first.
A dip like this happens across the board. very few games hold steady.

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