Madden 12 News Post

Analyst: Madden Sales to Fall 50% if NFL Season is Cancelled

02:29 PM - March 16, 2011 by RaychelSnr

Everyone's favorite video game analysts Michael Pachter is back with a prediction for Madden this season:

Quote:


	"Michael Pachter, video game analyst at Wedbush Morgan Securities, believes the longer the lockout drags on, the more likely it is that NFL fans will become alienated. He said while Madden is a great experience for gamers, its sales are definitely correlated to the underlying popularity of the NFL, so if the popularity of the NFL suffers, it�s likely that sales of Madden will suffer. �It�s still too early to call, since the lockout is happening in March and Madden launches in August,� said Pachter. �That�s a lot of time to fix things, although most commentators don�t sound very optimistic. My guess is that a complete cancellation of the NFL season would cost Madden around 50 percent of sales, and a delay of the season would be far less impactful. If the season is only delayed a week or two and fans aren�t alienated, there would be only a very small impact; if delayed through Thanksgiving (when the holiday selling season begins in earnest), the impact would be far greater.�

I don't want to speculate on the exact amount, but Pachter would be close to right if the entire season is cancelled. EA is already planning on Madden not being a big seller this year with their forward forecasts and past performances of games under strikes and lockouts don't give one much hope for Madden to be a sales hoss this season.

Game: Madden NFL 12Reader Score: 6.5/10 - Vote Now
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Member Comments

# 41 SkillzKillz719 @ 03/19/11 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bh446066


	They didn't survey me, b/c I'm going to be buying it for the first time since 08 this year, and for the first time on current gen.

Why? lol. Please do explain :P

# 42 Tyrant8RDFL @ 03/19/11 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stlstudios189


	I am so over with this whole lockout crap. The NFL will screw up major if the season is even delayed. They make 9 BILLION a year and cant divide it up give me a freaking break. If the season is delayed I will NEVER pay $65 to watch them play again. As for this season screw them I am not getting Madden for the 1st time since 1998 (I bought Gameday) NCAA football will be my new game this year.

I agree with the owners on this. Why divide with the players. Did the players help purchase the team?

Have you ever heard of a Business that is owned, and that owner having to split the revenue with his employees? Employees who invested nothing into buying the business.

To me it plain and simple. Athletes once again thinking they are bigger than the game.

The owners bought the teams not the players. Players just need to make sure they get paid fairly, with good retirement benefits also.

# 43 kjcheezhead @ 03/19/11 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrant8RDFL


	I agree with the owners on this. Why divide with the players. Did the players help purchase the team? Have you ever heard of a Business that is owned, and that owner having to split the revenue with his employees? Employees who invested nothing into buying the business. To me it plain and simple. Athletes once again thinking they are bigger than the game. The owners bought the teams not the players. Players just need to make sure they get paid fairly, with good retirement benefits also.

It's not really an employer/employee relationship, it's a partnership. I see it more like a record label and a great singer. The record label can't make an album with just anyone and a singer doesn't have the skills to make or sell the record.

Since the beginning of this, the players have only asked for what they got from the last CBA they signed. The owners are the ones who opted out with the game a financially successful as ever.

# 44 roadman @ 03/20/11 12:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hickhitchell33


	I totally disagree. You can argue it would make fans more likely to buy Madden. Madden sales will continue to drop because of the quality of the game.

They haven't dropped in the last few years. Why would they drop especially if people think the quality has been lousy over the last few years. Wishful thinking.

# 45 kjcheezhead @ 03/20/11 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roadman


	They haven't dropped in the last few years. Why would they drop especially if people think the quality has been lousy over the last few years. Wishful thinking.

Well many people, including the people that tend to defend the Madden series still admit that games like the Show and 2k11 have better overall quality. If someone feels this way, then the logical answer to why Madden outsells those games is because the NFL is so popular.

Now if the NFL loses some games this season due to a bitter labor dispute (that seems to be unwarranted ) the most likely response from the fans will be to boycott NFL products. A Madden series that's already seen as mediocre or lousy to many fans would be an obvious choice.

# 46 roadman @ 03/20/11 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kjcheezhead


	Well many people, including the people that tend to defend the Madden series still admit that games like the Show and 2k11 have better overall quality. If someone feels this way, then the logical answer to why Madden outsells those games is because the NFL is so popular. Now if the NFL loses some games this season due to a bitter labor dispute (that seems to be unwarranted ) the most likely response from the fans will be to boycott NFL products. A Madden series that's already seen as mediocre or lousy to many fans would be an obvious choice.

I agree somewhat, but what about the other 5 million fans that bought 11 and thought it was good? You don't sell 5.5 million games and a majority are unhappy. I'm not talking about people that peruse the internet, either. I don't really think a majority of people would start boycotting NFL products, but maybe I'm wrong.

# 47 kjcheezhead @ 03/20/11 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roadman


	I agree somewhat, but what about the other 5 million fans that bought 11 and thought it was good? You don't sell 5.5 million games and a majority are unhappy. I'm not talking about people that peruse the internet, either. I don't really think a majority of people would start boycotting NFL products, but maybe I'm wrong.

Not all 5.5 million sales are to unhappy customers obviously, but Madden 11 was seen as catering to casuals and recieved alot of backlash from the community early on. It started out strong out of the gate (probably after Madden 10 was recieved better than the past 4) and then faltered once gamers started getting their hands on it. 5 patches and strong holiday sales saved this title.

Initial sales seem to reflect how people liked the last version, so with the early backlash from 11, I would expect day 1 sales of Madden 12 to be down slightly already. If there is a loss of NFL games, I do think fans will boycott. The game is as popular as ever, there is no excuse for a work stoppage from a fans point of view, it will only happen because of greed.

Now Madden and it's exclusive NFL license symolizes the NFL's greed perfectly. What better response to an NFL work stoppage than for fans to refuse to buy an exclusively licensed product like Madden?

# 48 roadman @ 03/20/11 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kjcheezhead


	Not all 5.5 million sales are to unhappy customers obviously, but Madden 11 was seen as catering to casuals and recieved alot of backlash from the community early on. It started out strong out of the gate (probably after Madden 10 was recieved better than the past 4) and then faltered once gamers started getting their hands on it. 5 patches and strong holiday sales saved this title. Initial sales seem to reflect how people liked the last version, so with the early backlash from 11, I would expect day 1 sales of Madden 12 to be down slightly already. If there is a loss of NFL games, I do think fans will boycott. The game is as popular as ever, there is no excuse for a work stoppage from a fans point of view, it will only happen because of greed. Now Madden and it's exclusive NFL license symolizes the NFL's greed perfectly. What better response to an NFL work stoppage than for fans to refuse to buy an exclusively licensed product like Madden?

I see what you are saying and thinking and others may agree, but I just don't feel those casuals outside the net look into it that deeply. They just want video game football.

# 49 sportyguyfl31 @ 03/21/11 08:27 AM

50% is way too inflated..if its half that, that would be a lot.

# 50 sportyguyfl31 @ 03/21/11 08:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by coogrfan


	This is a moot point-the NFL season will start on time, take it to the bank. Much ado about nothing, imo.

I agree.

At best, this is "The Sim Standard" troll fodder.

# 51 sportyguyfl31 @ 03/21/11 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrant8RDFL


	To me it plain and simple. Athletes once again thinking they are bigger than the game.

Lazy statement.

The athletes arent asking for anything/

They are satisified with status quo.

It's the owners, fighting among themselves, because they all arent as marketing savvy as Jerry Jones.

That's all this is about.

# 52 Strofan7 @ 03/25/11 04:10 PM

I think they will decrease, but 50% seems extreme (pachter-style). I assume many people will buy the new game to help offset the loss of the NFL season by playing their own. However, someone mentioned just buying Madden 11 and simulating a season. Which is smart because it isn't like they are missing out on drafted players. So that could hurt my opinion some...

What I really think will be interesting is how college football will react. I expect a ton more fans at all of the games as well as a HUGE spike in sales if there is even a half decent NCAA 12 game released.

We'll see soon enough!

# 53 Strofan7 @ 03/26/11 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TNT713


	Doubtful there will be an NCAA spike... According to figures announced in one of the EA Madden podcasts (1 or 2 - can't remember), less than 10% of the people who play Madden also own NCAA. There is VERY little crossover... Later

Curious if that is for the same year? Most of the people I know like to alternate between games, as in buy Madden 10, NCAA 11...etc

I feel these are the fans that are more heavily influence-able on which to buy, and I feel they will lean towards being more likely to purchase NCAA if the strike is still going on.

# 54 ABR173rd @ 03/27/11 01:05 PM

50% is pretty steep. I also think good or bad Madden has a following unlike any other video game. As far as the crossover between NCAA and Madden 10% seems very low...Only one of the six guys I know locally that owns Madden doesn't purchase both so I don't know who their polling for that data.

Jerry Jones being market savvy, LOL....................

# 55 kjcheezhead @ 03/27/11 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AirborneRanger1


	50% is pretty steep. I also think good or bad Madden has a following unlike any other video game. As far as the crossover between NCAA and Madden 10% seems very low...Only one of the six guys I know locally that owns Madden doesn't purchase both so I don't know who their polling for that data. Jerry Jones being market savvy, LOL....................

I'm on the opposite end of the spectrum I guess. I've been in an online league with 12-16 other owners for the past few years. Only one of them buys NCAA as far as I know.

I also don't quite get the Jerry Jones joke, here is a list of team profits going around the CBA thread...

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2010/30/...ns_Income.html

Jerry Jones' team made twice what any other owner did (except Daniel Snyder) and 4x or more as much as about 90% of the league. The guy obviously knows how to run a business.

# 56 NoFear @ 03/27/11 05:30 PM

Sales will be decreased but 50%? Highly doubt it, UNLESS the game sucks.

The main thing we should be discussing is that since the Madden developers know they'll see a loss in sales, is that I hope it doesn't make them even lazier in improving the game.

I really hope they don't use the lockout as a cop out to churn out a crappy game, but it's also very much a possibility especially with how bad last year's game was in terms of progressing the series.

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Analyst: Madden Sales to Fall 50% if NFL Season is Cancelled