NBA 2K15: Fixing Broken Shot Forms Exposes Flaw in Shooting System

Feature Article

Submitted on: 03/23/2015 by Jayson Young

NBA 2K15's fourth patch isn't available yet on Xbox One, but PlayStation 4 and PC owners have now had a week and a half to experience its effects.

Developer Visual Concepts hasn't published an official change log (and doesn't plan to, until Xbox One users receive the update), but Gameplay Director Mike Wang has already confirmed a few changes to NBA 2K15's shooting system on the Operation Sports forums:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike Wang

To give some insight on the actual tuning that I made, here's essentially what happened:

I tuned the baseline [shooting] values that are shared by both human and CPU-controlled players.

The shot heuristics are pretty complex at a basic level. Pre-patch, the numbers looked something like this for a decent shooter at mid-range:

Wide open = 45%
Fully Contested = 35%
Heavily Contested = 10%

That's why many people complained that "being open" didn't really matter much, and they were right. Post-patch, that same shooter is now:

Wide open = 60%
Fully Contested = 20%
Heavily Contested = 10%

So over the course of the game, assuming both teams shoot an even spread of open and contested jumpers, you should've seen zero change to your end-of-game shot percentages when comparing pre- and post-patch. But if you trend hard one way or the other (all your shots are open or all your shots are contested), you would've seen a very noticeable change.

If both teams play solid defense, I can believe that a player might go 80% from the field from time to time, but it definitely shouldn't be the norm. Also, in case you're wondering, I didn't touch three-point percentages at all, only layup, close and mid-range values.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike Wang

I also fixed the "glitched" shots being unable to get perfect release, so that will factor in as well.

While both of these changes are welcome, finally being able to achieve a perfect "green" release with every shooting form in the game has caused field goal percentages to skyrocket, post-patch. The reason is that green release shots go in roughly 99% of the time in NBA 2K15, regardless of what difficulty the game is set to, or how poor the shooter's attributes are. In the estimated 200 to 300 games I've completed since October, twice is the amount of times I've seen one of my players miss a green release shot.

Both occasions occurred in MyTeam's Domination mode. The first was a wide-open corner three from "Sapphire" DeMar DeRozan (84 standing three-point rating). The other was a lightly contested post-up fadeaway from just outside the paint with Tyler Zeller (68 post fade rating).

Those are the only misses, out of the hundreds of green releases I've had this year. Many of the successful shots even managed to come from athletes whose shooting attributes are in the 70s and 60s. Rajon Rondo's free-throw rating, for instance, is a 63 in MyTeam, but I've had games on the hardest difficulty setting (Hall of Fame) where I was able to hit 10 of 10 from the line with Rondo, just because his shooting form is so easy to time.

The near-perfect success rate of green shots, unfortunately, cannot be changed by lowering shooting sliders. It's just something that's hard-coded into the game, and needs to be seriously reconsidered for NBA 2K16.

I've always preferred a shooting system that favors attribute ratings over release timing. And if I play NBA 2K15 offline, I can still have that experience by enabling "ratings only" shooting. But online, only one option exists: "timing-based" shooting. So if I want to play any mode in NBA 2K15 besides MyGM, MyLeague, or MyCareer, all I can do is cringe while average -- or even subpar -- shooters consistently drain buckets that extend well beyond their natural abilities, because a user has mastered the timing of players' shooting animations.

NBA 2K16 needs to move to a system where user timing has a much more subtle impact on shot success, so that a defensive, pass-first point guard like Rajon Rondo can't hit every single attempt he puts up. Instead of what's in-place now, I'd propose a system where:

Perfect release = The player's normal assigned shot rating.
Slightly early/Slightly late release = Three points deducted from the player's shooting attribute.
Late/Early release = Nine points deducted from the player's shooting attribute.

I'm not sure what the ideal deduction values would be, but that's definitely something Visual Concepts could certainly tweak to perfection, with a little testing.

What do you think of the shooting changes in NBA 2K15?

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Member Comments

# 41 kamackeris76 @ 03/24/15 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sundown


	This is pretty much what we feared when it was first announced that the shot system would be more skill based and less random-- that perfect releases could be gamed and glitched to produce unrealistic shooting percentages. We were assured that the shot difficulty was tuned so that they would produce believable outcomes, and for the most part, this was true. But if the tuning was done with broken shots or if the patch somehow made timing perfect releases easier, fixing the shots seems to have made our nightmare scenario a reality-- that the influence of the simulation engine could effectively be minimized or bypassed with practice. Just like the FT game can be (I shoot like 70-80% at the line with Andrew Bogut). As I understand it, sliders don't even help, as sliders control the simulation engine, and greens effectively renders it moot altogether. Also there seems to have been way too much fixation over getting green releases. In my opinion, green releases should either not be an automatic make, or green releases should be awarded Vegas video slots style or similar to a Dave and Buster timing game-- where even with perfect timing greens are not guaranteed, but are distributed at a rate that produces somewhat realistic outcomes with some fudging under the hood factoring timing, defense, movement, ratings, etc. So while you aim to get green releases, it would be numerically impossible to bypass the calculations 2K performs to represent believable basketball long term. I've disabled automatic updates for patches on my XBox One since this sounds to be near game breaking according to numerous reports-- especially since I've been having some great games recently.

Can we choose whether to download the patch or not? I can't remember I'm xbox one and I strictly play offline and reading this thread makes me want to not get the update. Which Is a damn shame as the regression issue has been fixed.... 2 steps forward 1 step back

Just wondered as I haven't had this answered yet... I play real player %.....is this ruined also?

# 42 tril @ 03/24/15 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dlee3


	Didn't 2k last year made it harder to shoot at the beginning then fell under pressure when too many people complain and made it easier?

they've done this numerous times. I believe they did it in 2k12, cause folks was complaining that shooting was too hard in 2k11.

# 43 tril @ 03/24/15 05:44 PM

another way to fix the user based timing is to add a shooting difficult slider, similar to the free throw difficulty slider.
tie this into the slider attributes for close, medium, layup, mid, and three pointer. it will work, especially if contested shots can alter these variations ever so slightly.
fatigue and shooter hot spots should also be factored into this.

# 44 IgotSyphillis @ 03/24/15 07:04 PM

If you only play offline, is there a way to delete this patch? Cause I went from averaging 99 points per game on HOF difficulty on about 44% shooting from the field and 32% from 3 to these past couple weeks where I'm averaging about 125 ppg on about 58% shooting and 50% from 3. I don't even play with the shot meter or with shot feedback on. I assume I'm hitting more green shots, I don't like all that stuff taking up areas on my screen during the game so I don't know. But for me, this game went from a sweet challenge to way too easy and boring rea quick. I want my game back.

# 45 JRxPHANTOM @ 03/24/15 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IgotSyphillis


	If you only play offline, is there a way to delete this patch? Cause I went from averaging 99 points per game on HOF difficulty on about 44% shooting from the field and 32% from 3 to these past couple weeks where I'm averaging about 125 ppg on about 58% shooting and 50% from 3. I don't even play with the shot meter or with shot feedback on. I assume I'm hitting more green shots, I don't like all that stuff taking up areas on my screen during the game so I don't know. But for me, this game went from a sweet challenge to way too easy and boring rea quick. I want my game back.

Only way to get your game back is to rely on 2K to release a patch #5.

# 46 mgrand15 @ 03/25/15 01:06 AM

I'm fine with increasing the percentage on open shots (although 60% might be too high - they need to use real SportVU numbers). What's bothering me is that unless you're RIGHT in someone's grill - it feels like the game is counting it as open. There needs to be 4 categories - let's use Korver as an example. The best shooter in the league (although he shoots mainly 3s so that drags his percentage down)

Stats are from SportsVU:

Very tight defense (closest defender 0-2 feet) - 47.6% (low frequency)
Tight defense (closest defender 2-4 feet) - 42.6%
Open (4-6 feet) - 52.2%
Wide open - (6+ feet) - 53.7%

These are on shots 10+ feet from the basket - all jump shots, no layups.

As of right now, I feel like unless I heavily contest the shot, the game is registering it as "open" and it's going in 60% of the time. If I'm 2-4 feet away, it feels like an open shot. This makes defense crazy hard because instead of being able to give non-shooters a little bit of cushion then contesting when they start rising up - I have to get ALL the way up on everyone that's even a half decent shooter. My previous strategy conceded the drive for a somewhat contested shot. If they made the jumper, I lived with it. Now? That shot is going in 60% of the time for AVERAGE shooters. Messes up the entire balance of the game.

I'm perfectly fine with the green releases going in 100% of the time. It makes me feel like I'm at the gym, and I'm feeling it, and as soon as I let it go - I know my form was perfect, the arc was perfect and there's no chance it's going to miss. No problem with the green - as long as it's not happening every single time.

Please reconsider that 60% number. It's WAY too high. You'd be hard pressed to find ANYONE in the league that hits 60% of their open jump shots - much less the "average" player. If you're going to settle on that number, please make sure that the game can correctly register when someone is open. A player isn't open if someone is standing right in front of them but didn't hit Triangle or LT.

# 47 CaseIH @ 03/25/15 01:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mgrand15


	I'm fine with increasing the percentage on open shots (although 60% might be too high - they need to use real SportVU numbers). What's bothering me is that unless you're RIGHT in someone's grill - it feels like the game is counting it as open. There needs to be 4 categories - let's use Korver as an example. The best shooter in the league (although he shoots mainly 3s so that drags his percentage down) Stats are from SportsVU: Very tight defense (closest defender 0-2 feet) - 47.6% (low frequency) Tight defense (closest defender 2-4 feet) - 42.6% Open (4-6 feet) - 52.2% Wide open - (6+ feet) - 53.7% These are on shots 10+ feet from the basket - all jump shots, no layups. As of right now, I feel like unless I heavily contest the shot, the game is registering it as "open" and it's going in 60% of the time. If I'm 2-4 feet away, it feels like an open shot. This makes defense crazy hard because instead of being able to give non-shooters a little bit of cushion then contesting when they start rising up - I have to get ALL the way up on everyone that's even a half decent shooter. My previous strategy conceded the drive for a somewhat contested shot. If they made the jumper, I lived with it. Now? That shot is going in 60% of the time for AVERAGE shooters. Messes up the entire balance of the game. I'm perfectly fine with the green releases going in 100% of the time. It makes me feel like I'm at the gym, and I'm feeling it, and as soon as I let it go - I know my form was perfect, the arc was perfect and there's no chance it's going to miss. No problem with the green - as long as it's not happening every single time. Please reconsider that 60% number. It's WAY too high. You'd be hard pressed to find ANYONE in the league that hits 60% of their open jump shots - much less the "average" player. If you're going to settle on that number, please make sure that the game can correctly register when someone is open. A player isn't open if someone is standing right in front of them but didn't hit Triangle or LT.

I feel the same way with how shooting should be. Im not sure the game is registering the wide open shot quite right. 60% on a wide open shot is probably a tad to high, unless you are hitting that perfect timing and getting green, then I don't have a issue with it going in 100%,although that probably should e more like 90%. I would say a wide open shot in game without getting a perfect release probably should be closer to 55% rather than 60%.

Since Im a offline gamer I don't have as much of a issue with the shooting as I do all the sliding and being unable to stay infront of your guy. I can adjust sliders to get shooting % down, but cant seem to stop sliding, and have more control over the player with sliders at the moment.

# 48 Coach2K @ 03/25/15 02:13 AM

I'm not sure how I feel about the patch.

On the one hand, I shouldn't play hof sim all year and get two green releases for over a 100, 12 minute quarter games and hardly hit anything even in practice mode with no defense. (I'm using the Pacers full time).

On the other hand, guys that get good shots shouldn't be penalized "just because" shooting percentages need to be realistic.

Maybe the real problem here is that we are expecting the CPU engine to keep percentages low when it should be defense that causes low field goal percentage instead.

I think we are really focusing on the wrong problem.

Shooting feels fine to me. Defense though, does not.

# 49 CaseIH @ 03/25/15 02:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by www.Coach2K.com


	I'm not sure how I feel about the patch. On the one hand, I shouldn't play hof sim all year and get two green releases for over a 100, 12 minute quarter games and hardly hit anything even in practice mode with no defense. (I'm using the Pacers full time). On the other hand, guys that get good shots shouldn't be penalized "just because" shooting percentages need to be realistic. Maybe the real problem here is that we are expecting the CPU engine to keep percentages low when it should be defense that causes low field goal percentage instead. I think we are really focusing on the wrong problem. Shooting feels fine to me. Defense though, does not.

I think you hit the nail on the head with this. Id say its more of a defensive issue than a shot timing issue. Because if you happen to be able to get in a good D position you nor the AI will hit a lot of shots. That's on the sim slider setting for shooting.

The problem is because lack of control due to sliding you cant defend well. Its almost impossible to play good D now because everything seems so loose and your on skates trying to defend. Even being the ball handler or the guy you passing to seems to be on ice, as they slide a bunch too.

I play offline, so IM sure its even harder online to stay in front of your man. slider adjusting don't seem to help much either, unless its tuned way down then the gameplay is horrible because it feels they are stuck in sand,lol.

Id say shooting is probably fine, and its the defense and lack of control over the players because of sliding is where the problem lays.

# 50 zrohman @ 03/25/15 02:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by www.Coach2K.com


	I'm not sure how I feel about the patch. On the one hand, I shouldn't play hof sim all year and get two green releases for over a 100, 12 minute quarter games and hardly hit anything even in practice mode with no defense. (I'm using the Pacers full time). On the other hand, guys that get good shots shouldn't be penalized "just because" shooting percentages need to be realistic. Maybe the real problem here is that we are expecting the CPU engine to keep percentages low when it should be defense that causes low field goal percentage instead. I think we are really focusing on the wrong problem. Shooting feels fine to me. Defense though, does not.

That's it. Defense has been terrible and unresponsive all year for the user. Sliding around on ice, and the cpu is just playing dumb. That sounds like the correct answer. I'm sure they could knock the shots down 5% but the defense should be the focus

# 51 jrose57 @ 03/25/15 02:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zrohman


	That's it. Defense has been terrible and unresponsive all year for the user. Sliding around on ice, and the cpu is just playing dumb. That sounds like the correct answer. I'm sure they could knock the shots down 5% but the defense should be the focus

So, would changing SLIDERS fix the defense for both USER and CPU. Yes, I know USER is controlled in our hands but we only control one player at a time and the other four players on the court are controlled by the computer...

# 52 Lord Bonium @ 03/25/15 06:02 AM

If they do fix the defense in 2k16 or 17 i hope they'll only fix if for offline modes. Otherwise they're just rewarding off ball defenders again. If they can't have separate sets of sliders, or whatever it is that's needed, for on/offline then i honestly hope they leave the defense as bad as it is.

This is just my view as an online myteam player of course --> i don't want to be guarded by a team of cpu controlled 90+ ovr players that have flawless defensive ai.

# 53 smuhead @ 03/25/15 10:52 AM

Perfect releases should never go in 99-100% of the time. Unrealistic. Same applies for free throws. Perfect releases should indicate that you are shooting at your players capability.

Also If your going to implement a new shooting system, make sure you give detailed information about how it works.
Example: There's a rhythm icon option in the gameplay options menu, that I still don't know where it is in the game. Everything doesn't have to be a secret. Especially when I pay money to enjoy a game I can't shoot on.
Last, please due away with the hot zones. Or letting people know where they are. I'm sick seeing people running to shoot from the same spot because they know they have a higher sucess rate there. Unrealistic.
But with the way this shooting system is, I don't blame them.

# 54 stillfeelme @ 03/25/15 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by www.Coach2K.com


	I'm not sure how I feel about the patch. On the one hand, I shouldn't play hof sim all year and get two green releases for over a 100, 12 minute quarter games and hardly hit anything even in practice mode with no defense. (I'm using the Pacers full time). On the other hand, guys that get good shots shouldn't be penalized "just because" shooting percentages need to be realistic. Maybe the real problem here is that we are expecting the CPU engine to keep percentages low when it should be defense that causes low field goal percentage instead. I think we are really focusing on the wrong problem. Shooting feels fine to me. Defense though, does not.

Coach I agree with some of that but not all of it.

If you create a system where perfect release equals 100%, then stick skills play a more bigger role than actual real life %'s. Basically the original post demonstrated that the game becomes unrealistic because a skilled user is able to make a player shoot much better if they are able to time their shot. I already realized this means your whole defensive strategy changes because you now have to defend non-shooters much differently because their shot is not glitched.

Take a look at these Pacers numbers. The Pacers as a team shoot 42% when wide open occording to SportsVU and 35% when contested tight. So as a team they only are better 6.7% when open. I think they did this kind of study last year and it showed that the NBA as a whole only shoots 5% better on average when open.

The CPU engine should be about as close you can to what you have shown, which is why I think they need to seriously look at getting rid of perfect success equals 99% success. They need individual ratings for open and when contested. All of this was found on NBA.com. This is looking at jumpers 10 feet or greater.

# 55 Caelumfang @ 03/25/15 02:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smuhead


	Perfect releases should never go in 99-100% of the time. Unrealistic. Same applies for free throws. Perfect releases should indicate that you are shooting at your players capability. Also If your going to implement a new shooting system, make sure you give detailed information about how it works. Example: There's a rhythm icon option in the gameplay options menu, that I still don't know where it is in the game. Everything doesn't have to be a secret. Especially when I pay money to enjoy a game I can't shoot on. Last, please due away with the hot zones. Or letting people know where they are. I'm sick seeing people running to shoot from the same spot because they know they have a higher sucess rate there. Unrealistic. But with the way this shooting system is, I don't blame them.

Lol, you'd hate playing against me in the Rec. My player has hot zones everywhere on the court, so I'd be able to pull from anywhere.

# 56 Caelumfang @ 03/25/15 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stillfeelme


	Coach I agree with some of that but not all of it. If you create a system where perfect release equals 100%, then stick skills play a more bigger role than actual real life %'s. Basically the original post demonstrated that the game becomes unrealistic because a skilled user is able to make a player shoot much better if they are able to time their shot. I already realized this means your whole defensive strategy changes because you now have to defend non-shooters much differently because their shot is not glitched. Take a look at these Pacers numbers. The Pacers as a team shoot 42% when wide open occording to SportsVU and 35% when contested tight. So as a team they only are better 6.7% when open. I think they did this kind of study last year and it showed that the NBA as a whole only shoots 5% better on average when open. The CPU engine should be about as close you can to what you have shown, which is why I think they need to seriously look at getting rid of perfect success equals 99% success. They need individual ratings for open and when contested. All of this was found on NBA.com. This is looking at jumpers 10 feet or greater.

Do you REALLY want people shooting only 6.7% (or anything remotely close to that number) worse when contested? Think about that for a second.

# 57 stillfeelme @ 03/25/15 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Caelumfang


	Do you REALLY want people shooting only 6.7% (or anything remotely close to that number) worse when contested? Think about that for a second.

I didn't say that that but that is the actual team overall. What I said is there are certain players who should not receive a open shot bonus because uhh... they don't shoot well whether they are open or contested. What I have said is they need a contested shot rating and an open shot rating and the perfect release should not be automatic 99% going in. I said all of this last year

The whole league right now only shoots 5.8% better when wide open 6ft+ as a whole compared to being contested tight. Yeah there are players that shoot better or who % goes way up when open but it is not across the board.

This patch now means you have to guard bad shooters because not only can they get "green" perfects they also received an open bonus that they probably don't even show in real life. Here is a look at just some of the All-Star 3pt shooters some of the best of the best shooters in the league.

# 58 Nevertheles109 @ 03/25/15 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stillfeelme


	I didn't say that that but that is the actual team overall. What I said is there are certain players who should not receive a open shot bonus because uhh... they don't shoot well whether they are open or contested. What I have said is they need a contested shot rating and an open shot rating and the perfect release should not be automatic 99% going in. I said all of this last year The whole league right now only shoots 5.8% better when wide open 6ft+ as a whole compared to being contested tight. Yeah there are players that shoot better or who % goes way up when open but it is not across the board. This patch now means you have to guard bad shooters because not only can they get "green" perfects they also received an open bonus that they probably don't even show in real life. Here is a look at just some of the All-Star 3pt shooters some of the best of the best shooters in the league.

Great Stats. You are correct; it is about 5-8% difference on average between wide and open and tightly contested. The wide open percentage is too high at the moment.

In my opinion, the only thing they should have adjusted this patch was getting green releases. That issue was resolved, which, in turn, solved the shooting problem. Nevertheless, it seems like the created a new problem but over compensating what never was an issue in the first place.

The fg percentages were low on certain times (aka Pacers, Hawks) due to shooting mechanics being broken. This was an over correction.

# 59 stillfeelme @ 03/25/15 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nevertheles109


	Great Stats. You are correct; it is about 5-8% difference on average between wide and open and tightly contested. The wide open percentage is too high at the moment. In my opinion, the only thing they should have adjusted this patch was getting green releases. That issue was resolved, which, in turn, solved the shooting problem. Nevertheless, it seems like the created a new problem but over compensating what never was an issue in the first place. The fg percentages were low on certain times (aka Pacers, Hawks) due to shooting mechanics being broken. This was an over correction.

Yeah I am hoping we get one more patch for 2K15 just to fix the shooting. I hope they delay the XB1 just for that. There is no reason to release the XB1 with shooting as is IMO.

# 60 bcruise @ 03/25/15 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stillfeelme


	I didn't say that that but that is the actual team overall. What I said is there are certain players who should not receive a open shot bonus because uhh... they don't shoot well whether they are open or contested. What I have said is they need a contested shot rating and an open shot rating and the perfect release should not be automatic 99% going in. I said all of this last year The whole league right now only shoots 5.8% better when wide open 6ft+ as a whole compared to being contested tight. Yeah there are players that shoot better or who % goes way up when open but it is not across the board. This patch now means you have to guard bad shooters because not only can they get "green" perfects they also received an open bonus that they probably don't even show in real life. Here is a look at just some of the All-Star 3pt shooters some of the best of the best shooters in the league.

Just curious - where do you find info like this (breaking up shots into covered vs. wide open)? I love reading this kind of stuff.

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