Maddux and Lowe revisited

[TroyF]

When Kim was traded to the Red Sox a month or so ago, there was a pretty large debate about how good Lowe and Maddux were right now. It generated a pretty good discussion about how strong either was due to their low K rate and other factors.

We were discussing this when they were at their worst. After that discussion both have went on a pretty good run:

Maddux:

Low point - 5.54 ERA after being blasted by Cincy, giving up 9 hits and 7 earned runs in 4 innings.

After - 41 innings pitched (6 starts, nearly 7inning per), 35 hits, 3 Walks, 23 K, 12 R, 11 ER. 2.41 ERA.

Total - 6-6 4.31 ERA (31rst among starters in the NL) Atlanta is 9-6 when Maddux starts.

Lowe:

Low point - 6.53 ERA after getting ripped by Minnesota. 4IP, 10 hits, 6 earned runs.

After - 56 2/3 IP (8 starts, over 7 per), 50 hits, 18 BB, 24K, 19 runs, 17earned runs, 2.70 ERA

Total - 8-3 4.28 ERA (21rst in the AL) Boston is 10-6 in games started by Lowe.

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We still need the full season to tell us everything, but it appears to me that both are quality #2 guys in the rotation and wouldn't be a complete disaster in fantasy leagues where they were drafted appropriately.

TroyF

[Chief Rum]

If they continue as they are currently going, I would certainly give them nods as #2 level guys, but on their stats as they are right now (including both good and bad), I would put them at borderline #2 or #3, depending on what quality of team they are on.

I unfortunately didn't participate in the Lowe-Maddux debate, so I don't know what that debate was about.

Chief Rum

[TroyF]

Well, even on their stats right now, I'd hate to say they weren't #2's. The Braves win 60% of the time when Maddux starts. The Red Sox are winning 62% of the time Lowe starts.

Considering only four teams in baseball have a winning% of 60+, I think it'd be hard to say these guys aren't pulling their weight.

As for run support, Maddux isn't in the top 40 in the national league. Lowe ranks 18th in the AL. Add that to the fact both of these guys do a decent job at eating up innings (Maddux is 7th in the NL, Lowe at around 15 in the AL) and. . .

I'm not sure what other criteria you'd want for a #2 starter. I'm not saying they are the best #2's in the game (in the NL, Brown/Nomo, Prior/Wood/Zambrano, and Morris/Williams - in the AL Meche/Moyer, Zito/Hudson/Mulder, Mussina/Wells/Clemens come to mind), but I'm not sure there would be a heck of a lot of #2's you'd take over these two guys.

TroyF

[Chief Rum]

They're solid, no doubt about that. Note that I did say they are borderline #2 pitchers for some teams (maybe even many teams).

And, also, note that I say if they keep up their current string of good work they will definitely be #2s and would maybe even be #1s (as they both have certainly been comparable to in the past).

I'm just saying that, taking their games as a whole right now (botht he good and the bad), I see the as borderline #2s or high #3 pitchers. IMO, #2 pitchers have better than 4 ERAs (or at least closer than Lowe and Maddux are right now).

BTW, this is irrespective of where they currently are actually in their current teams' rotations. This is with respect to a hypothetical ideal of a #1 through #5 starter.

In my mind, I see a #1 as being a dominant sub-3.50 ERA type of starter. #2's are high 3's, or just over 4. Regular 3's or in the middle 4's for the most part, and #4's are high 4's-maybe low 5's. Anything lower than that is either a #5 pitcher or shouldn't be in an "ideal" major league rotation.

The wins and the durability have their value as well, of course, but I am really talking about the sheer quality of pitching of what they bring to the table with each pitch. Also, you have to factor in that both durability and wins are affected by the team around you. Sticking with internal stats is more relevant to actual pitch quality. For instance, what are their WHIPS right now? Their strikeout to walk ratio? These are more important to me when judging their pitch-for-pitch quality than variables which include much more of a team element to it (like wins).

YMMV, I guess.

CR

[cuervo72]

I just KNEW this was going to get dredged up after Lowe's start last night, and if it wasn't, I was going to start my own thread apologizing for not believing Lowe was going to turn it around this year. So, I apologize

[TroyF]

Chief,

I understand what you are saying, but I think you have to take into account the respective league ERA's and where each starter ranks in the league.

With Lowe ranking 21-23 in the league right now, you can do the math. It puts him in the low group of #2's in the league right now. When you take into account that a certain group of those guys have three to a team (Yankees, A's, Mariners) He rises up a notch.

With Maddux we could use the same assessment. Yes, YMMV, but I think an arguement could be made that both were decent #2's if the season ended today.

Of course, both keep up their current streaks, and it'll be irrelevant.

TroyF