FOF2K4 DRAFT: Starting To Look At How Combines and Blue Bars Translate

[Ben E Lou]

OK. Time to take a look at this. My Scout Ratings:

QB: E
RB: F
WR: G
OL: VG
P/K: VG
DL: VG
LB: A
DB: E
Young: VG

Here are my draftees:

ROUND ONE


ROUND TWO


ROUND THREE


ROUND FOUR


ROUND FIVE


ROUND SIX


(I traded away my 7th round pick in a previous year.)

Be back in a few to post how they look after being signed. Incidentally, 6th-round pick RB Simmons was drafted because I think he might be able to be converted to a WR.

This draft was rated a B+ by the Solecismic Draft Review.

[Ben E Lou]

All six guys signed during 2nd-stage free agency.

[Ben E Lou]

ROUND ONE


ROUND TWO


ROUND THREE


ROUND FOUR


ROUND FIVE


ROUND SIX

[Buccaneer]

Anaylsis?

[Ben E Lou]

Writing it now.

[Ben E Lou]

THOUGHTS ON FIRST-ROUND PICK CONLEY
From his combine stuff, one would think he is a project player (22% and 15/67) who would diagnose plays well (31 Sol test), be pretty good for a LB at M2M and bump/run coverage because of his 4.52 speed and 6.95 agility test. His fairly low bench press and average size would probably, without his blue bar ratings, have made me assume that he would be average or below average as a run stopper. However, his speed and agility would make me think he’d be a good pass rusher.

As he turns out, he’s definitely a project, with great potential as a run stopper and pass rusher. His play diagnosis skills are lower than I would have hoped for, to be sure, but with a 60 volatility, I guess I should be happy that he is projecting to be a solid player.

The verdict is definitely out on this guy, as I have yet to observe how players develop in FOF2K4. The good news for his development’s sake is that he’ll be the primary backup SLB and WLB as a rookie, so he should see a decent amount of playing time.

[Ben E Lou]

One other thing to note about Conley: his high intellgence test score did not translate into high intelligence

[3ric]

Heh, I've meant to do a thread like this too.

My draft was rated B-, a little worse than SD. In the first round I took the second-rated guy on the board (I had the second pick after a 2-14 season).


Second round:


Third round:


Fourth round:

[3ric]

Fifth round:


Sixth round:


Seventh round:


The top two were about what I expected, Pierce was a little disapointment but he should be ok. On the other hand, I got compensation in Alcott (4th) who looks very solid. Lando and Hawkes were long shots to see if high volatility should amount to something. The top three were all low volatility picks.

[Ben E Lou]

THOUGHTS ON SECOND-ROUND PICK MARES
His combine/athletic scores indicate a modestly developed receiver with ok speed, good cutting ability, and who is smart when running his routes. His blue bars tended to reflect that, but his volatility is rather high.

His ratings took a drop across the board (21/50„³22/42), with nearly every green bar being in the low end of the blue-bar-estimated range. He doesn¡¦t appear to be someone who is going to wind up being very useful to me.

His high test score did translate into high intelligence.

[Ben E Lou]

GENERAL OBSERVATION:

Blue bars vary in sizes, based on your scout's ability at a given positition group. Note the significant difference in blue-bar sizes between QB Blake (excellent scout) and LB Conley (avg. scout). I'm also hypothesizing, based on 3ric's post, that the blue bar range is globally effected by the "Young Talent" rating of your scout.

[3ric]

Good point. I'm going to look up my scout now.

Edit: he was only "fair" at young talent:
QB: excellent
RB: good
WR: average
OL: average
K: average
DL: average
LB: fair
DB: excellent
YT: fair

Could it be coincidence that the areas where he's excellent in are also the areas where I found some late-round gems? Maybe not!

[Ben E Lou]

I'll be back at some point later today (or tonight) with more comments. Right now, with the screen shots, y'all have as much info on these guys as I do, so feel free to jump in with comments. I haven't even set the preseason depth charts yet. I probably won't get this season done before tomorrow morning.

--Ben

[tucker342]

Very interesting guys. I'm happy to see that the draft has been implemented so well by Jim

[Ben E Lou]

bump

[Ben E Lou]

Their roles at beginning of season 1 (2005):

1. OLB Conley--primary backup at both OLB positions.
2. WR Mares--Made squad, on inactive roster
3. QB Blake--4th QB.
4. T Gilmore--Starting LT due to short-term injury to starter (3 weeks). Will be primary backup at both T's when starter returns.
5. CB McNeil--Dime back
6. WR Simmons--Backup flanker, will be in play on all 3WR sets.

[Dargone]

Can someone clarify what effect the volatility rating has on a player? Thanks

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Dargone
Can someone clarify what effect the volatility rating has on a player? Thanks

Check the top thread under "rookies/drafting" I think. There's a link to a thread where Jim explained it.

[Ben E Lou]

How they did in year 1:

1. OLB Conley--0 starts, was in on 136 defensive snaps, 3 tackles, 7 assists
2. WR Mares--Never got on the field.
3. QB Blake--Ditto Mares.
4. T Gilmore--7 games, 3 started, 188 snaps, 3 for 5 KRB, 3 sacks allowed, 5.0 OPct.
5. CB McNeil--14 games played, 4 starts, gave up 22 catches, 2 balls defensed, 0 INT's, 43 tackles, 10 assists, 3 sacks, 2 hurries. On the field for 222 pass plays, 125 running plays.
6. WR Simmons--16 games, 3 starts, targetted 37 times, caught 14 passes for 198 yards. 5 drops, 0 TDs. 195 pass plays, 136 running plays, 1 punt return for 15 yards, 1 rush for 2 yards.

I'll post their updated player cards after training camp, as well as cards of my '06 draftees.

[Easy Mac]

It looks like you didn't get too much production out of them.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Easy Mac
It looks like you didn't get too much production out of them.

Nope, not impressive at all, especially for a B+ class. However, I still have hope that Conley, McNeil and Simmons will become solid contributors.

[Bonegavel]

Seems that the grade has nothing [edit - not as much] to do with how "good" the game projects them to be as much as if you drafted for the positions it saw as "in need."

One year I drafted away from need and selected, what turned out to be, my greatest RB and a few wonderful CBs and I received a horrible grade. The next, I received a B- when I went for what the AI thought I needed and they turned out to be duds.

[Mark]

I'm noticing a lack of Excellent Future players in the drafts. Could it be because Excellent players only turn into such with proper PT and coaching? I grabbed a WR with the #4 pick and he's got a future of very good in th high 70's. His first season, he had 74 catches for 1150+ yards.

I have found it possible to draft future starters in the later rounds which is a nice touch. My last version was FOF 2, so being able to find quality players after round 2 is refreshing.

My first three drafts are B+, A-, and A. The "A" draft was without a 1st round pick (traded three of them of the stud WR I took #4 last year).

[Buzzbee]

Originally posted by SkyDog
GENERAL OBSERVATION:

Blue bars vary in sizes, based on your scout's ability at a given positition group. Note the significant difference in blue-bar sizes between QB Blake (excellent scout) and LB Conley (avg. scout). I'm also hypothesizing, based on 3ric's post, that the blue bar range is globally effected by the "Young Talent" rating of your scout.

I think this is a very important observation!

[OldGiants]

Originally posted by Bonegavel
Seems that the grade has nothing [edit - not as much] to do with how "good" the game projects them to be as much as if you drafted for the positions it saw as "in need."

One year I drafted away from need and selected, what turned out to be, my greatest RB and a few wonderful CBs and I received a horrible grade. The next, I received a B- when I went for what the AI thought I needed and they turned out to be duds.

I agree with this. And it may also be based on current ability in the curious way the TCY recruiting class rankings and grades are done.

I played as Dallas and came out with my top need being QB and RB going into the draft, but there were none to be had, so I picked DEs in the first two rounds and wound up with ranked last with a C- grade. the players look promising, so I'm happy.

[Ben E Lou]

OG! I didn't notice that you were back! Welcome!

[OldGiants]

Originally posted by SkyDog
OG! I didn't notice that you were back! Welcome!

Thanks, Skydog.

I'm feeling a mild affinity for you!

[Ben E Lou]

Here is the 2006 Draft. (Scout unchanged from last year.)

ROUND ONE


ROUND TWO


ROUND THREE


ROUND FOUR


ROUND FIVE


ROUND SIX


ROUND SEVEN



This draft was rated a B- by the Solecismic Draft Review.

[RPI-Fan]

The 6th Round RB (Blanchard), looks like a true North-South runner. He's pretty slow, and won't do well in the open field. His intelligence is mediocre, so he won't do much in terms of finding holes. His bench press test shows some strength, matching his size and running style.

He doesn't have any real great skills or combine scores to match, and his high volatility indicates he could completely bust.

[Ben E Lou]

ROUND ONE


ROUND TWO


ROUND THREE


ROUND FOUR


ROUND FIVE


ROUND SIX


ROUND SEVEN

[Vikings13]

Nice draft overall. That first rounder is a fire hydrant - 5'6" and 200lbs?!

Your 7th rounder TE looks like a great pick for such a late round too.
I look forward to seeing how they perform...

[Ben E Lou]

ROLES AT BEGINNING OF 2006 REGULAR SEASON

2005 Draft Class
1. OLB Conley--primary backup at both OLB positions.
2. WR Mares—Inactive. 5th-best WR on the team
3. QB Blake--#2 QB
4. T Gilmore—Backup LT
5. CB McNeil—Nickel back.
6. WR Simmons--Backup flanker, will be in play on all 3WR sets.

2006 Draft Class
1. RB Rice—Starting RB
2. T Wayne—Backup RT
3. DT Brimberry—Backup LDT
4. TE Chen--#3 TE
5. C White—Backup C
6. RB Blanchard--#2 RB
7. TE Nichols--#2 TE

[Ben E Lou]

2006 PERFORMANCES

2005 Draft Class
1. OLB Conley--16 games, 156 defensive snaps, 13 tackles, 1 sack, 1 hurry.
2. WR Mares—Never got on the field.
3. QB Blake--Never got on the field.
4. T Gilmore—Starting tackle got hurt, and he started last two games. Overall, was in on 203 snaps, 4 for 11 KRB, 2 sacks allowed, 8.9 OPct.
5. CB McNeil—Nickel back for #8 pass defense in the league. In on 490 defensive snaps (348 pass plays). 21 catches given up, 5 defensed, 0 int's, 19.1 PDPct., 47 tackles, 7 assists, 2 sacks, 1 pass blocked, 1 hurry.
6. WR Simmons--In on 209 pass plays. 29 catches for 368 yards, 2 TD's, 0 Drops.

2006 Draft Class
1. RB Rice—407 carries, 1687 yards (4.1ypc), 11 TD's, Offensive ROY
2. T Wayne—On the field for 19 snaps. 0 for 2 KRB.
3. DT Brimberry—16 games played, 158 snaps. 3 tckls, 3 assists, 1 blk, 1 hurried.
4. TE Chen--106 snaps, 4 catches, 44 yards, 0 for 1 KRB
5. C White—4 starts, 288 snaps, 5 for 27 krb, 3 sacks allowed, 16.6 OPct
6. RB Blanchard--Demoted to #3 RB early in the season. 22 carries for 71 yards
7. TE Nichols--354 snaps, 16 catches, 201 yards, 1TD, 1 for 3 KRB.

[Ben E Lou]

2007 Draft...

ROUND ONE


ROUND TWO
(Round 2 pick traded away last year when trading up to get RB Rice.)

ROUND THREE


ROUND FOUR


ROUND FIVE


ROUND SIX


ROUND SEVEN

[Ben E Lou]

Dola--

That draft was rated "B"

EDIT: Third-round pick George didn't sign immediately. Gotta try again right before training camp.

[cuervo72]

Just a thought on percentage developed, and not necessarily one that means much or that is even in the ballpark.

Take Ryan Rice, RB for instance. It lists him as 70% developed, which is just a calculation of current / future (44/62) . What is interesting though is that I tried something similar in creating a csv player file. There is a field for % developed, but it seems to work from a different calculation than the one listed for the draft. For that calculation, things like breakaway speed and elusiveness seemed to be intrinsic values that weren't really developed (something like blocking strenth, pass rush strength, endurance) and most of the players development would be in areas such as avoid drops, etc. If I were to "create" Rice with a 70% developed value, his pass catching skills would have been more developed than they are, and his overall current value would be higher than it is.

Maybe a better example is C Bart White. Your scout had him as 58% developed, but if I were creating him in a csv file, I'd say he was more like 40% developed, based on his run/pass blocking skills. That he was evaluated at 58% spoke to his exceptional blocking strength (though it could have also been from endurance, you don't know until you draft). Jim states that most rookies fall into the 30% developed range.

[Ben E Lou]

ROUND ONE


ROUND TWO


ROUND THREE


ROUND FOUR


ROUND FIVE


ROUND SIX


ROUND SEVEN

[cuervo72]

Oh, and I think the assessment of the blue bars is correct, a narrower range for scouts better with the position or young talent is exactly what I would expect.

[Ben E Lou]

ROLES AT BEGINNING OF 2007 REGULAR SEASON

2005 Draft Class
1. OLB Conley--Starting SLB
2. WR Mares—Inactive. 5th-best WR on the team
3. QB Blake--#2 QB
4. T Gilmore—Backup LT
5. CB McNeil—Questionable with broken wrist (4wks). Will be nickel back when he's back.
6. WR Simmons--Backup flanker, will be in play on all 3WR sets.

2006 Draft Class
1. RB Rice—Starting RB
2. T Wayne—inactive--4th-best tackle.
3. DT Brimberry—Backup LDT
4. TE Chen--#3 TE
5. C White—KC offered a 4th-round pick for him, so I traded him.
6. RB Blanchard--#2 RB
7. TE Nichols--#2 TE

2007 Draft Class
1. DT Small--starting LDT
2. No pick
3. G George--Backup LG and RG
4. DE Grant--Backup LDE
5. OLB Nelson--Backup WLB
6. CB Grabovez--Nickel Back now. Will likely move to dime when McNeil returns from injury.
7. FB Maxwell--Starting FB

[Ben E Lou]

2007 PERFORMANCES

2005 Draft Class
1. OLB Conley--16-game starter. Led team with 87 tackles. Also had 28 assists, 6 sacks, 3 INT's.
2. WR Mares—Still hasn't seen the field.
3. QB Blake--very limited playing time 3 for 5 for 26 yards passing
4. T Gilmore—49 snpas...1 for 7 KRB
5. CB McNeil—11 games, 5 starts, 442 defensive snaps, 2 INT's, 20.2 PDPct
6. WR Simmons--In on 209 offensive snaps. 30 catches for 411 yards and 1 TD. 3 drops

2006 Draft Class
1. RB Rice—379 carries, 1510 yards, 12 TD's, 46 catches, 333 yards, 3 TD's.
2. T Wayne—19 offensive snaps 0 for 2 KRB
3. DT Brimberry--81 defensive snaps, 2 tackls, 1 assist
4. TE Chen--79 offensive snaps. 6 catches, 117 yards, 1 TD.
5. C White—didn't play much in KC
6. RB Blanchard--121 carries, 464 yards, 1 TD.
7. TE Nichols--286 offensive snaps, 7 catches, 73 yards, 1 TD.

2007 Draft Class
1. DT Small--16 starts. 27 tackles, 8 assists, 2.5 sacks.
2. No pick
3. G George--104 offensive snaps. 2 for 5 KRB.
4. DE Grant--19 defensive snaps. 1 tackle. 1 sack.
5. OLB Nelson--94 defensive snaps. 7 tackls, 5 assists, .5 sacks
6. CB Grabovez--335 defensive snaps (243 passes). 3 defensed, 13 catches, 0 INT's, 19.2 PDPct, 26 tacklses, 5 assists. 1 sack
7. FB Maxwell--14 starts. 22 catches for 11 yards and 0 TD's. 2 drops. 4 for 14 KRB. 0 sacks allowed.