Injuries and the 4000+ yard passing issues.

[Ben E Lou]

Well, it is pretty clear that injuries, set at 100, are unrealistically low, which is what most people apparently want. However, I'm wondering if it is the low injuries that are resulting in the high passing yardage totals. Someone else pointed this out, but at 100, too many QB's are starting 16 games. I count 13 QB's who started 16 games in the NFL last year. Here are the numbers for the four years of my career with injuries set at 100.

2003: 25, 13 >4000 yards
2004: 27, 10 >4000 yards
2005: 25, 13 >4000 yards
2006: 22, 09 >4000 yards

So, I'm averaging 24.75 QB's per season starting all 16 games, and 11.25 passing for >4000 yards. Granted, the 45.4% ratio is higher than the 30.8% ratio in the 2002 NFL. I wonder if the difference is that our FOF QB's are getting to throw to top-of-the-line wide receivers more often now because of the reduced injuries.

It seems odd that a game engine that up to now has produced very accurate stats would suddenly get out of whack. I wonder if too many good QB's and WR's are getting to play too many games.

[Ben E Lou]

While I was typing the above post, I did a run of the 2003 season with injuries set to 200. 21 QB's played 16 games, but only 6 threw for 4000+ yards. Gonna run a few more tests on this...

[cthomer5000]

speak for yourself - I'm getting plenty of injuries at the 100 setting (every season). My top RB has gone down 3 years in a row to a season-ending injury, my linebackers have had serious injury issues, and I can't keep my starting tackles healthy. Aside from that I also have plenty of minor injuries.

If anything, I was thinking the injuries where a bit high at 100.

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by SkyDog
While I was typing the above post, I did a run of the 2003 season with injuries set to 200. 21 QB's played 16 games, but only 6 threw for 4000+ yards. Gonna run a few more tests on this...

and for reference, there were 4 4,000 QB's in the NFL last year, with 3 or 4 very close behind.

[Ben E Lou]

Link

Check out my post in the thread linked to above, and check out the link in that thread to the current NFL injury report. It is my contention that while gamers may not LIKE the number of injuries in the game, the FOF injured list is still quite a bit lower than the real-life one.

[cody8200]

I dont think it has to do with injuries. Real players are set up in the real player file as having too much potential and being too good I think. Check and see which of these players are still real players and which are game generated players. In my game Carson Palmer and David Carr and Harrington are all 3 absolutely MAXED out to 100 in nearly all of the categories. That's why their stats are so high, not because of injuries( althought that may have something to do with it). For computer generated players ( I have one of the leagues best QB's) and he rarely gets over 3700 yards ina season. I'm in year 2009(4 games in) by the way. Heres my career leaders in passing.

name gp gs yards

Carson Palmer 98 98 29156
David Carr 100 100 28471
Kerry Collins 100 100 27759
Tom Brady 98 98 27579
Trent Green 100 100 26821


now for number 24th in all time yards but first place when considering computer generated QB's , the first overall pick in 2004(my QB)

Will Snell 84 84 19377 (has hit 3950) but never had a year over 4000 yet

[cody8200]

Just a little trivia here for ya guys. Football is a violent sport as you said SkyDog. I am researching sports history at IU right now and I picked up this interesting fact. In 1905 there were 18 deaths by playing football...that's right Deaths. There were also 28 very serious injuries...such as crushed skulls, spinal fractures, etc nationwide. In fact it was such a dangerous sport that Teddy Roosevelt said that if football didn't change the rules (allow passing as an option) then he would ban the sport.

[Darkiller]

This HAS to be tweaked.

Last testing season played :
12 QBs >4000 yards passsing
1 > 5000 yards.

almost HALF OF THE LEAGUE QBS threw for over 4000 !

[bbo]

In my 3 seasons I have lost one play each year for the season and have had many 1 to 7 game injuries also. They have been great for me so far.
Also, each season I have had 3 to 5 4,000 yard passers. I am loving this game.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Darkiller
This HAS to be tweaked.

Last testing season played :
12 QBs >4000 yards passsing
1 > 5000 yards.

almost HALF OF THE LEAGUE QBS threw for over 4000 !

I'm not done with my testing yet, but I'm about halfway through with it set at 200. I'm becoming more and more convinced with each test run that I'm on to something here. Injuries look much closer to the real NFL, and stats are falling in line too. I should be done with the 200 run in about 5 minutes.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by bbo
In my 3 seasons I have lost one play each year for the season and have had many 1 to 7 game injuries also. They have been great for me so far.
Also, each season I have had 3 to 5 4,000 yard passers. I am loving this game.

Fun playability and realism may be, in the case of injuries, two different things.l

[Pacersfan46]

I've noticed that QB's are a bit inflated, and RB's are a bit unimportant, and interchangable.

I dumped Edgerrin James after 5 years, only 2 of which he got 1,000 yards, and then plugged in Ladell Betts (who was rated a 24 overall) the next year as I needed to dump salary somewhere .... Ladell ran for 1,600 yards, and it remained the best rushing season I had seen for a good dozen years. I like the unpredictability .... but 1600 is the best total for 12 years? While QB's are getting 5000 yards, and mid thirty TD totals with single digit INT's?

I also agree it has some to do with ratings, but on the game I'm playing right this second ... I have Drew Brees who is currently rated a 48 overall ... with his best 2 ratings being accuracty (73), and two minute offense (63) and just had 29 TD's, and 6 INT's for me. While Ladanian Tomlinson is rated a 73 overall, and his 3 year high for me isn't even 1,000 yards.

[cody8200]

I think you right about rushing yardage. Seems a bit low. But I'm wondering if it;s because of lack of rushing attempts or just a low yard per rush ratio. I'm betting its because of lack of attempts. The ai's gameplans seem focused on the pass. If you guys are interested i'll list my career leaders for rushing in 2009.

[Pacersfan46]

Well, this is Tomlinson's YPC in every season I've played in this.

Year 1 - 3.7
Year 2 - 4.0
Year 3 - 3.9
Year 4 - 3.8
Year 5 - 3.0

Not very Tomlinson esque. This is ... of course ... just one example though.

[cody8200]

gotta factor in the x factor.

Heres my top 5 in career in 2009 4 games in

name gp gs yards ypc
Green, William 100 100 7110 4.2
Lewis, Jamal 95 95 7030 4.4
Williams, Ricky 98 94 6467 3.9
Green, Ahman 97 97 6351 4.4
Holmes, Priest 100 100 6216 3.8

Tomlinson is 7th

Tomlin, Ladan 100 100 6034 3.9


all in all the numbers look pretty decent.

[Ben E Lou]

OK. I just did 14 runs of the 2003 season, using Prime's real player file. I threw out the two highest and lowest 4000+ yard season totals, and used the middle 10 results. Here's what things looked like:

AVERAGE NUMBER OF 16-START QB's: 21.3 (2002 NFL: 13)
AVERAGE NUMBER OF 4000+-YARD QB's: 7.4 (2002 NFL: 4)
RATIO OF 4000-yarders to 16-game starters: .3474 (2002 NFL: .3077
RANGE OF 16-START QB's: 19-24
RANGE OF 4000-yard QB's: 6-9

At 200, things look quite a bit better. Still, QB's are playing 16 games MUCH more often than in the real NFL.

On my last three runs, I copied the regular season ending injury report, just to take a quick glance if injuries are too high or low. Here they are:

From: Personnel Department

Injury Report:

Norbert Meadows, FB, is now 100%.

Quentin McCord, SE - Strained Deltoid Muscle, Probable, full strength in about 1 week.

Justin Griffith, FB - Hyperextended Knee, Probable, full strength in about 1 week.

Gerald McBurrows, SS - Shoulder Tendinitis, Probable, full strength in about 2 weeks.

Keith Brooking, WILB - Hyperextended Knee, Doubtful, full strength in about 2 weeks.

T.J. Duckett, RB - Stress Fracture in the Foot, Questionable, full strength in about 2 weeks.

Terrence Edwards, FL - Strained Elbow Tendon, Out, full strength in about 3 weeks.

Michael Vick, QB - Bruised Sternum, Questionable, full strength in 2004.

Ellis Johnson, NT - Plantar Fasciitis, Questionable, full strength in 2004.

Keion Carpenter, FS - Torn Thumb Ligament, Questionable, full strength in 2004.

Alge Crumpler, TE - High Ankle Sprain, Out, full strength in 2004

From: Personnel Department

Injury Report:

Ellis Johnson, NT, is now 100%.

Keith Brooking, WILB, is now 100%.

Keion Carpenter, FS - Strained Patellar Tendon, Probable, full strength in about 1 week.

Chris Hope, FS - Strained Elbow Tendon, Probable, full strength in about 1 week.

Todd McClure, C - Separated Shoulder, Questionable, full strength in about 2 weeks.

Alge Crumpler, TE - Hyperextended Knee, Questionable, full strength in about 2 weeks.

Todd Weiner, RT - Hyperextended Elbow, Out, full strength in about 3 weeks.

Sam Rogers, WLB - Ruptured Achilles Tendon, Out, full strength in late 2004.

Tyrone Williams, RCB - Strained Hamstring, Probable, return to full strength unknown.

Twan Russell, WILB - Turf Toe, Probable, return to full strength unknown.

Kynan Forney, RG - Turf Toe, Probable, return to full strength unknown.

Roberto Garza, RG - Strained Hamstring, Probable, return to full strength unknown.

From: Personnel Department

Injury Report:

Todd Weiner, RT, is now 100%.

Peerless Price, FL, is now 100%.

Travis Hall, RDE - Hyperextended Elbow, Probable, full strength in about 1 week.

Keion Carpenter, FS - Hyperextended Elbow, Probable, full strength in about 1 week.

Bryan Scott, RCB - Hyperextended Knee, Probable, full strength in about 1 week.

Travis Jervey, RB - Strained Elbow Tendon, Out, full strength in about 2 weeks.

Todd McClure, C - Pulled Quadriceps Muscle, Out, full strength in about 3 weeks.

Roberto Garza, RG - Broken Ribs, Questionable, full strength in about 3 weeks.

Warrick Dunn, RB - Torn Quadriceps Muscle, Out, full strength in 2004.

Sam Rogers, WLB - High Ankle Sprain, Out, full strength in 2004.

Tyrone Williams, RCB - ACL Damage to the Knee, Out, full strength in 2004.

Ray Buchanan, LCB - Torn Quadriceps Muscle, Out, full strength in late 2004.

T.J. Duckett, RB - Compound Leg Fracture, Out, full strength in late 2004.

My head coach was Good in Avoid Injuries, and the Coordinators were Good and Average.

[CraigSca]

I don't have the statistics in front of me, but can anyone pro-rate last year's quarterback statistics to see how many 4000 yard passers there would have been had there been no quarterback injuries?

My thinking is quarterback injuries are very low at the 100 injury setting, but I'm also getting the impression that the AI for gameplans is pre-disposed to be pass-happy.

Did no one see the high number of 4000 yard passers in beta testing? Or the lack of QB injuries? The first year of my first dynasty I noticed the entire league had a total of ONE quarterback injury that caused the player to miss a game. No one finds this odd?

[Ben E Lou]

Thoughts:

EVen at 200, injuries still look to be overall a little lower than the NFL. I'll bet if they were brought into line (which I freely admit for many would make the game well nigh unplayable), you'd see the number of 4000-yard passers become much closer to the real NFL.

[CraigSca]

One other thing to look at - doesn't it SEEM (and I admit I have no data here) that it's much easier to find a better head coach/coordinator in this game.? That being the case, could it therefore be easier to find a coach with a high "Avoid Injury" rating? Could that then also influence the amount of injuries we're not seeing?

It still doesn't answer why QBs are not getting injured in this game compared to other positions...but could be part of the reason that the 100 setting just doesn't cut it as far as realism is concerned.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by CraigSca
I don't have the statistics in front of me, but can anyone pro-rate last year's quarterback statistics to see how many 4000 yard passers there would have been had there been no quarterback injuries?

That would be a bit of a pain. I can't find any listing that has the games started listed, other than by looking at individual player stats. Here is an example of what I'm talking about. I had to click on each player's name to find out how many games he played.

[Samdari]

Originally posted by CraigSca
I'm also getting the impression that the AI for gameplans is pre-disposed to be pass-happy.

Well, there are a few things to check there.

How many total plays are being run? This being too high alone could result in statistics being out of whack.

How does the pass/run ratio compare with the NFL?

How is the passing success rate (I think ypa is a good measure there)? In a related check, how is the ypc in the run game?

If it is true that the passing game is indeed emphasized at the expense of the run game, all these metrics need to be computed.

[amdaily]

Here are 2014 QB stats with injuries at 200. Note their 15 QB's started all games. I'm still getting 8 4000+ yarders and 9 guys with a rating above 95. Even the percentage of passes complete seems a bit high, especially for the top 5 QB's. I don't think it's the injuries that are the problem here.

Front Office Football 2004
Passing Statistics
   
  Player              Pos Team  GP GS Att  Cmp  Pct   Yards Avg   Lg  TD   Int  
McHugh, Thurman       QB  DEN   16 16 480  311  64.7  4441  9.25  54  38   10     
Leftwich, Byron       QB  PIT   16 16 479  318  66.3  4158  8.68  63  31   9      
Bookout, Ricky        QB  CHI   16 16 506  340  67.1  4068  8.03  80  36   13     
Grove, Renaldo        QB  DAL   11 11 326  217  66.5  2438  7.47  38  24   7      
Carr, Terry           QB  SDO   11 11 313  215  68.6  2529  8.07  80  18   6      
Scherer, Tito         QB  SEA   15 9  366  246  67.2  3164  8.64  73  24   13     
Schultz, James        QB  JAX   10 10 360  240  66.6  3097  8.60  47  21   11     
**Dawson, Zack        QB  ATL   16 15 523  344  65.7  4269  8.16  79  25   12     
Pennington, Chad      QB  GBY   8  8  235  156  66.3  1927  8.20  90  14   8      
Weinke, Chris         QB  CIN   11 11 363  233  64.1  2842  7.82  53  16   7      
Kraus, Rob            QB  ARI   13 13 404  254  62.8  3296  8.15  80  18   14     
Vick, Michael         QB  MIA   15 15 432  274  63.4  3175  7.34  66  18   13     
Irwin, Morris         QB  SDO   8  5  237  137  57.8  1619  6.83  46  17   9      
Moose, Bryant         QB  HOU   16 16 539  343  63.6  4020  7.45  50  27   21     
Hasselbeck, Matt      QB  CAR   16 16 523  319  60.9  3648  6.97  67  21   12     
Cortez, Van           QB  NOS   16 16 535  334  62.4  3916  7.31  66  23   17     
Burroughs, Charles    QB  KCY   16 16 495  327  66.0  3275  6.61  68  15   12     
Bulger, Marc          QB  STL   13 12 429  255  59.4  2862  6.67  48  22   13     
Megna, Derrick        QB  BUF   16 16 528  326  61.7  4203  7.96  77  25   24     
Gray, Lincoln         QB  CLE   16 10 361  225  62.3  2266  6.27  53  11   6      
Gryboski, Eddie       QB  NED   16 16 542  324  59.7  3701  6.82  61  22   16     
Galloway, Courtney    QB  SEA   13 7  272  145  53.3  1866  6.86  44  18   11     
Hastings, Dennis      QB  TEN   10 10 343  209  60.9  2429  7.08  75  12   12     
Ramsey, Patrick       QB  NYK   16 16 621  369  59.4  4160  6.69  74  21   18     
Swensen, Bryant       QB  IND   11 11 380  208  54.7  2901  7.63  66  18   16     
Hopper, Glen          QB  DET   16 16 605  379  62.6  3871  6.39  65  26   26     
Brady, Tom            QB  OAK   14 14 492  287  58.3  3420  6.95  63  20   19     
Branch, Bryan         QB  WAS   16 16 454  273  60.1  2809  6.18  55  11   11     
Hiam, Vernon          QB  MIN   16 16 572  344  60.1  4087  7.14  68  17   29     
Brees, Drew           QB  NJY   11 11 348  194  55.7  2400  6.89  47  12   15     
Stewart, Fernando     QB  PHI   16 16 490  308  62.8  3266  6.66  75  14   26     
Richardson, R.J.      QB  TBY   15 15 529  317  59.9  2973  5.62  80  13   20     
Lofton, Glenn         QB  SFO   16 16 573  325  56.7  3572  6.23  73  17   26     
Schwartz, Kim         QB  JAX   8  6  248  134  54.0  1590  6.41  61  3    8      
   
  Player              Pos Team  Sck  Yards Rating  
McHugh, Thurman       QB  DEN   46   308   112.3     
Leftwich, Byron       QB  PIT   39   244   107.3     
Bookout, Ricky        QB  CHI   29   171   104.5     
Grove, Renaldo        QB  DAL   22   125   104.2     
Carr, Terry           QB  SDO   17   112   104.1     
Scherer, Tito         QB  SEA   31   198   101.1     
Schultz, James        QB  JAX   18   110   100.1     
**Dawson, Zack        QB  ATL   43   249   97.2      
Pennington, Chad      QB  GBY   20   129   97.2      
Weinke, Chris         QB  CIN   28   188   94.8      
Kraus, Rob            QB  ARI   40   245   88.8      
Vick, Michael         QB  MIA   29   183   86.8      
Irwin, Morris         QB  SDO   25   147   86.8      
Moose, Bryant         QB  HOU   54   359   86.5      
Hasselbeck, Matt      QB  CAR   59   394   85.7      
Cortez, Van           QB  NOS   60   393   85.6      
Burroughs, Charles    QB  KCY   48   282   84.6      
Bulger, Marc          QB  STL   38   242   83.8      
Megna, Derrick        QB  BUF   55   342   83.5      
Gray, Lincoln         QB  CLE   31   203   83.3      
Gryboski, Eddie       QB  NED   61   370   81.5      
Galloway, Courtney    QB  SEA   24   149   80.2      
Hastings, Dennis      QB  TEN   32   208   79.4      
Ramsey, Patrick       QB  NYK   51   295   78.6      
Swensen, Bryant       QB  IND   41   248   77.6      
Hopper, Glen          QB  DET   48   289   77.3      
Brady, Tom            QB  OAK   40   225   77.0      
Branch, Bryan         QB  WAS   42   258   75.9      
Hiam, Vernon          QB  MIN   45   286   70.7      
Brees, Drew           QB  NJY   29   172   70.7      
Stewart, Fernando     QB  PHI   51   310   69.6      
Richardson, R.J.      QB  TBY   45   253   67.8      
Lofton, Glenn         QB  SFO   39   236   66.2      
Schwartz, Kim         QB  JAX   20   116   64.3      

[Ben E Lou]

One run does not a conclusion make. Plus, if injuries are still a little low, and game plans are skewed towards passing a bit, that makes 8 a reasonable result.

[amdaily]

Alright then, contrast those results to FOF 2001, where 3 more QB's start every game. Note only 4 4,000 yards. and zero 100 ratings, while there are mutiple below 70, something that rarely happen in FOF004.

EA.com Front Office Football 2001
  Name                  Tm  GP  GS  Att   Comp  Pct   Yards Avg   Lg
Favre, Brett            GBY 16  16  519   327   63.0  4304  8.29  85      
Beuerlein, Steve        CAR 16  16  502   302   60.1  4011  7.99  77      
Warner, Kurt            STL 16  16  564   330   58.5  4092  7.25  84      
Chandler, Chris         ATL 16  16  421   231   54.8  3108  7.38  85      
Brister, Bubby          MIN 16  16  577   311   53.8  4018  6.96  90      
Dilfer, Trent           BAL 16  16  493   295   59.8  3519  7.13  89      
Bledsoe, Drew           NED 16  16  397   235   59.1  3158  7.95  56      
Brunell, Mark           JAX 16  16  456   270   59.2  2939  6.44  65      
Miller, Jim             CHI 16  16  560   355   63.3  3837  6.85  80      
Johnson, Rob            BUF 16  16  510   300   58.8  3725  7.30  64      
Aikman, Troy            DAL 16  16  494   291   58.9  3451  6.98  83      
Gannon, Rich            OAK 16  16  501   292   58.2  3560  7.10  72      
Frerotte, Gus           DEN 16  16  528   305   57.7  3344  6.33  48      
Garcia, Jeff            SFO 16  16  467   269   57.6  2600  5.56  87      
Testaverde, Vinny       NYJ 16  16  492   275   55.8  3016  6.13  94      
Zeier, Eric             TBY 16  16  461   247   53.5  2956  6.41  70      
Garrett, Jason          NYG 16  16  498   275   55.2  3080  6.18  44      
Foley, Glenn            SEA 16  16  530   294   55.4  3086  5.82  44      
Graham, Kent            PIT 16  16  436   247   56.6  2295  5.26  56      
Mitchell, Scott         CIN 16  16  512   275   53.7  3423  6.68  57      
Batch, Charlie          DET 15  15  439   264   60.1  3341  7.61  60      
Manning, Peyton         IND 15  15  279   168   60.2  2267  8.12  57      
McNair, Steve           TEN 15  15  440   260   59.0  3187  7.24  61      
Pederson, Doug          PHI 15  15  509   280   55.0  2749  5.40  51      
Blake, Jeff             NOS 15  14  464   259   55.8  3175  6.84  48      
Moon, Warren            KCY 13  13  417   245   58.7  2940  7.05  84      
Johnson, Brad           WAS 13  12  448   275   61.3  3241  7.23  49      
Couch, Tim              CLE 13  10  311   167   53.6  1806  5.80  52      
Harbaugh, Jim           SDO 11  11  349   205   58.7  2057  5.89  80      
**Plummer, Jake         ARI 11  11  315   184   58.4  1991  6.32  76      
Holcomb, Kelly          IND 11  1   229   122   53.2  1324  5.78  71      
Moreno, Moses           SDO 9   5   239   123   51.4  1437  6.01  80      
  
  Name                  TD    Int   Sack  Yards Rate
Favre, Brett            30    17    41    245   94.7    
Beuerlein, Steve        25    15    39    253   89.6    
Warner, Kurt            29    17    50    310   85.6    
Chandler, Chris         22    11    39    246   85.0    
Brister, Bubby          35    16    40    247   84.6    
Dilfer, Trent           25    17    23    144   84.2    
Bledsoe, Drew           18    18    30    187   80.7    
Brunell, Mark           17    12    48    308   79.6    
Miller, Jim             20    22    38    234   79.0    
Johnson, Rob            17    17    34    218   78.7    
Aikman, Troy            19    18    37    227   77.8    
Gannon, Rich            16    19    38    238   75.0    
Frerotte, Gus           14    15    30    181   73.5    
Garcia, Jeff            13    13    43    250   70.9    
Testaverde, Vinny       14    17    54    340   69.2    
Zeier, Eric             16    19    36    226   67.8    
Garrett, Jason          17    21    43    266   67.6    
Foley, Glenn            15    22    39    242   64.6    
Graham, Kent            12    17    26    160   64.1    
Mitchell, Scott         17    27    37    231   63.7    
Batch, Charlie          19    15    36    218   84.0    
Manning, Peyton         12    16    15    99    76.5    
McNair, Steve           12    16    30    197   75.4    
Pederson, Doug          10    19    45    279   61.4    
Blake, Jeff             16    20    50    312   70.5    
Moon, Warren            18    12    25    152   82.8    
Johnson, Brad           16    16    36    229   80.3    
Couch, Tim              7     14    39    248   59.7    
Harbaugh, Jim           5     12    27    177   66.0    
**Plummer, Jake         9     24    32    211   54.8    
Holcomb, Kelly          5     8     26    163   63.2    
Moreno, Moses           6     13    21    138   55.7    
  
Key: GP = Games Played, GS = Games Started, Att = Passes Attempted,
Comp = Passes Completed, Yards = Passing Yards, Avg = Yards per Attempt,
Lg = Longest Pass, TD = Touchdowns Passing, Int = Passes Intercepted,
Sack = Times Sacked, Yards = Sack Yards, Rate = Quarterback Rating.

[Ben E Lou]

One more comparison:
2001 NFL Rushers >1,200 yards: 10
2002 NFL Rushers >1,200 yards: 12

FOF
2003: 9
2004: 8
2005: 7
2006: 8

[amdaily]

While I admit this finding needs researched further (I have to go to workright now), FOF2004 had 872 more league wide pass attempts that FOF2K1 with an average yards per attempt an entire .5 yards longer on each one.

As for rushing, FOF2004 had 497 more attempts then 2K1 with the same average of 3.8.

Also, FOF2004 had a league wide completeion percentage of 61.7, while 2K1 had it of 57.3.

The probem is obviously with the stats here, not the injuries. FOF2004 has more QB's making longer passes, and completing them at a much high rate, thus accounting for the large number of 4,000 yarders and 100+ ratings.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by amdaily
While I admit this finding needs researched further (I have to go to workright now), FOF2004 had 872 more league wide pass attempts that FOF2K1 with an average yards per attempt an entire .5 yards longer on each one.

As for rusing, FOF2004 had 497 more attempts then 2K1 with the same average of 3.8.

How did you find the FOF league-wide numbers. I have some time to take a look today, but don't want to add 'em all up.

[Ben E Lou]

Never mind....team stats page. I almost never look at that.

[Ben E Lou]

First glance at rushing:

2002 NFL >500 attempts: 4 teams
2002 NFL >450 attempts: 14 teams
2002 NFL >400 attempts: 27 teams
2002 NFL >=5.0ypc: 3 teams
2002 NFL >=4.5ypc: 9 teams
2002 NFL >=4.0ypc: 24 teams

2003 FOF >500 attempts: 4 teams
2003 FOF >450 attempts: 13 teams
2002 FOF >400 attempts: 26 teams
2002 FOF >=5.0ypc: 0 teams
2002 FOF >=4.5ypc: 0 teams
2002 FOF >=4.0ypc: 20 teams

At first glance, it appears that rushing attempts are about right, but rushing yards per carry is low. (That was with a 200-injury season.)

[JonInMiddleGA]

I can't say that I've seen a shortage of QB injuries in my massive sample of one complete season.

Of course, my perception could be skewed by a torn something or other that, combined with the X-factor, reduced Mike Vick to a 40's potential QB who looks to be my 3rd-string QB in the second season (behind some scrub & newly signed FA Tim Couch).

[Chubby]

take a look at completion percentage, I am running into very numbers in my career for QBs

[oykib]

I think this is getting to the business with the rel player file. If the talent is distributed differently than Jim's plan, initially, perhaps that affects later player generation.

It's like how the OPU used to affect FOF4 for years-- until the generation routines normalized ten or so years down the line.

I've only played one season. I set my O-Line and RBs way high during the preference draft. I got a 2,000 yard back. Also my QB didn't last the full season. Small sample size, I know. But I haven't used the real player file.

[Ben E Lou]

Jon:

Check the overall stats. In my most recent run at 100, there were 25 QB's who started all 16 games. Not only that, on 24 of those teams, the backup threw less than 27 passes all year long. These guys aren't even getting banged up for a few plays.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by oykib
I think this is getting to the business with the rel player file. If the talent is distributed differently than Jim's plan, initially, perhaps that affects later player generation.

I'm fairly certain the only change in the real player file is that the names have been changed.

[Ben E Lou]

Just ran one quick season with the original player file, injuries at 100. Same issues:

27 QB's played all 16 games. 9 >4,000 yards. No teams >4.5ypc.

As far as completion percentage goes, here's how that played out:


2002 NFL >65%: 3 teams
2002 NFL >60%: 18 teams
2002 NFL >55%: 25 teams
2002 NFL >50%: 31 teams

2003 FOF >65%: 6 teams
2003 FOF >60%: 17 teams
2003 FOF >55%: 29 teams
2003 FOF >50%: 32 teams

Hmm..it looks a little high, but probably needs a few more runs before we can say for sure that it is.

I can't find what the overall completion percentage was in 2002. Anyone?

[Samdari]

Originally posted by SkyDog
I'm fairly certain the only change in the real player file is that the names have been changed.

This is true. The player ratings are the same in both files (at least the published CSV files).

There is one "problem" with the initial/real player file though. The frequency of upper-echelon players is higher than the percentages laid out it the csv.txt file. The frequencies go as follows (apologies for the roughness of the table). FYI the initial file has 1758 players.

Rate     Players    %actual      %theory
0          640            36.4             53.4
1          496            28.2             23.9
2          274            15.5             12.2
3          105              6.0               3.9
4           70              4.0               2.6
5           58              3.3               1.5
6           46              2.6               1.1
7           32              1.8               0.6
8           27              1.5               0.4
9            9              0.5               0.3

Now, as is clear, the talent skews higher than described in the csv.txt file. Every rating has a higher percentage of players that described by the file, except 0. Particularly disturbing is the number of players rated 5 and above. According to the file, this should be 4% of the player pool. In the initial file, 10% of players are rated 5 or higher. Note that I do not really know this is a problem, as Jim may have simply changed his intended distribution and not rewritten the file, as this is the kind of hard to find mistake that can easily happen with a one man show (and in fact, has happened with Microsoft). I make no claims as to knowledge of what the distribution of players should be, only what it is, and what the file says.

As I cannot get a csv file of game-generated drafts, nor of player distributions in, say 2033, when all players have been draft generated. Can those doing such analysis give passer statistics for 2003-2005 with the default/real player file, and compare those to 2033-2035 with draft/randomly generated players? Ben, are your statistics done in the first few years with the initial file, or with a fictional, 20 years + history universe.

By the way, Ben, after playing with these ratings/distributions, I have decided to ask if I can get my title changed to "roster filler." I think I've earned it.

[CraigSca]

Data for the last season I have available (1997), from "The Hidden Game of Football"...

Avg. Yards Per carry: 3.98
Avg. Comp. Rate: 56.2
Yards per Pass: 6.69
TD Pct: 3.9
Int Pct.: 3.0
Avg. QB Rating: 77.22


It should be noted that average yards per carry has hovered at 4.0 for the years 1963 through 1997. Completion percentage has hovered at 54-58% since 1981. Average yards per attempt was 6.8 to 7.1 through 1992. In 1993, they started going down and were in the 6.6 to 6.8 range.

Gonna look for avg. pass attempts and rush attempts for the league as a whole as well...

[Ben E Lou]

Good thought Samdari. I wonder if you've hit the nail on the head. I just ran a test season with the fictional universe generator, and lo and behold, there were 2 QB's throwing for over 4,000 yards, and only 12 of them started all 16 games. I'm going to sim ahead 20 years and see what things look like.

--Ben

[CraigSca]

Also from "The Hidden Game of Football"...

This is all per team...and from 1997.

Average rushing attempts per game: 28
Average Yards rushing: 113
Avg. passes attempted: 33
Avg. Completions: 18
Average Yards Passing: 219

Avg. rushing attempts have fluctuated between 27-28 since 1990. Yards rushing on those attempts: 104-114. Pass attempts...since 1980 have fluctuated between 31 and 35. Last 31 was 1991, last 35 was 1995. Completions since 1980 have been between 17 and 20. Last 17 year was 1992, last 20 year was 1995. Passing yards since 1980: 205 to 236. 205 in 1992, 236 in 1995.

edited for grammar/spelling issues

[albionmoonlight]

I say wait until the real players get out of the league before you begin looking at stats too much.

That said--in my career (only 4 years old) the league rushing average is down around 3.4 ypc.

[CraigSca]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Good thought Samdari. I wonder if you've hit the nail on the head. I just ran a test season with the fictional universe generator, and lo and behold, there were 2 QB's throwing for over 4,000 yards, and only 12 of them started all 16 games. I'm going to sim ahead 20 years and see what things look like.

--Ben

Would this mean that better quarterbacks (from the original player file) have less injuries? I'm not sure how the fictional universe would impact injuries -- unless injuries are tied to the player's talent in some way.

Wait a sec...are they not starting because they're bad quarterbacks? That would explain it... Not an injury reason, but a talent one.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by CraigSca
Would this mean that better quarterbacks (from the original player file) have less injuries? I'm not sure how the fictional universe would impact injuries -- unless injuries are tied to the player's talent in some way.

Wait a sec...are they not starting because they're bad quarterbacks? That would explain it... Not an injury reason, but a talent one.

My guess is that it is a little of both. Good players tend to have high "endurance" ratings. I think this rating has an effect on injury frequency.

[Daimyo]

When I use the fictitious rosters I'm creating I do not get the problem of stat inflation at all. I follow exactly Jim's help file for talent distribution (the "theory" column of the chart Samdari posted above). My guess is that in the initial rosters Jim inflated the talent level a bit. Probably so he wouldn't have to deal with so many "Why is insert my favorite player here so bad in FOF?" questions.

Please give this player file a try if you have time. I hope to release the script later today (when i get home from work basically) that I'm using to create these.

Fictious Player File

[Maple Leafs]

Originally posted by SkyDog
Fun playability and realism may be, in the case of injuries, two different things.l

Bingo.

If FOF actually simulated realistic NFL injury totals, people would be screaming that it was unplayable. The Colts had 20 players on their injured list last week, 13 who were Questionable or worse. If that happened to an FOF team, most of us would scrap the season and start over (after posting a nasty message on FOFC).

People say they want a realistic NFL sim, but they really want something that's as realistic as possible while still being fun. By my count, at least three real-life NFL teams (Lions, Jets, Falcons) have had their seasons completely derailed by major injuries in the pre-season. Two other teams (Raiders, Ravens) have recently had to IR the QBs they've banked their future on. And of course we've had major injuries to big names like Faulk, Shockey, Harrison, Dillon, Plummer, etc. And that's just the offensive players!

I get the feeling that the typical FOFC player wants to have three or four injuries at any time, maybe one or two serious. Just enough to produce a challenge, but not so much that their carefully selected roster is decimated and the season is a writeoff. That's fine, and it's probably more fun, but it's not realistic and we shouldn't pretend that it is.

[cody8200]

That is exactly what I was saying earlier this thread. It's real players file that is bringing the statistical trouble. I figured if you created a random universe thing would revert back to normal solesismic numbers.

[Samdari]

Initial QB talent:

Same chart as before, but with only QBs (94 total) counted:

Rating   Number   %QB    %Overall   %Theory
0           35           37.2     36.4          53.4
1           21           22.3     28.2          23.9
2           12           12.7     15.5          12.2
3           6             6.3       5.9            3.9
4           5             5.3       4.0            2.6
5           3             3.2       3.3            1.5
6           3             3.2       2.6            1.1
7           5             5.3       1.8            0.6
8           4             4.3       1.5            0.4
9           0             0.0       0.5            0.3

I am not sure what conclusions to draw from this. Obviously, there are more QBs with 7/8 ratings that the league as a whole. That could help explain the high passing numbers being seen in initial seasons. Also, the top 15 QBs are rated 5 and above, which is ~half the starters (but only supposed to be 4% of the league) and if 12 of them play the whole season, there will be a lot of passing success.

In addition to not knowing if the initial player distribution does not match the draft distribution, we also do not know if the QB talent distribution of draft generated players matches that of the rest of the positions. It is obvious to me that QBs are handled differently from the other positions in certain circumstances (development, e.g.) so they might have a different talent distribution.

Are the editors being generated only for editing/reading initial player files? I would love to have a utility which could generate .csv player files from games in progress, and do similar rating counts for careers 20-30 years down the road.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally posted by Samdari
I would love to have a utility which could generate .csv player files from games in progress, and do similar rating counts for careers 20-30 years down the road.

I think that is the crucial missing piece.

[cuervo72]

I know there was talk of the ability to export files from a league, but I haven't checked to see if it was there or not.

I've been wondering with the initial player file how often some of those lower-end guys get playing time, the guys in the teens and single digits. I know they are supposed to be a large chunk of the league, but aren't most of these guys gone in OPU careers? Could the worst players being worse inflate numbers of some of the best players (just throwing out theories)?

[Samdari]

Originally posted by cody8200
That is exactly what I was saying earlier this thread. It's real players file that is bringing the statistical trouble. I figured if you created a random universe thing would revert back to normal solesismic numbers.

I hope so.

But, one thing I feel I need to reiterate is, without the ability to generate some sort of text file with ratings in it from in-progress careers, we have no idea if the game is generating players from the distribution described in csv.txt, or if Jim changed the distribution without changing the file describing it.

[CraigSca]

Someone made a player editor - it sounds like it wouldn't be hard to create a report showing the talent distribution if you could create an application that can read and write to the data file. Just sounds like the next step.... :hint, hint: