FOF2k4: Effects of Playing Time on Developing Rookies (Early results)

[RPI-Fan]

I'm interested in testing to see how big of an effect playing time has on rookies. So for an initial study, I drafted 7 rookie, all with fairly significant current/potential gaps. I then simmed the 2004 season twice - once having the rookies playing every game with 9 PT, the other on the inactive roster. At the end of the season I looked at the results. Later I'll do more repeats and go into the next training camp and whatnot. For now, here are my results.

		PT



	Pre-Preseason Current	Pre-Preseason Future	%	Total GS	Post-Postseason Current	Post-Postseason Future	%	Draft Current	Draft Future	Draft % Developed	Position
Round 1	18	52	35	20	25	52	48	14	63	22	T
Round 2	6	42	14	20	13	42	31	5	53	9	QB
Round 3	20	45	44	20	23	45	51	19	52	36	WR
Round 4	13	36	36	20	15	36	41	12	44	27	DT
Round 5	11	44	25	0	11	44	25	9	54	16	C
Round 6	11	37	30	20	16	37	43	10	44	22	S
Round 7	9	21	43	20	12	21	57	7	21	33	RB

		NO PT


	Pre-Preseason Current	Pre-Preseason Future	%	Total GS	Post-Postseason Current	Post-Postseason Future	%	Draft Current	Draft Future	Draft % Developed	Position
Round 1	18	52	35	4	18	52	35	14	63	22	T
Round 2	6	42	14	0	6	42	14	5	53	9	QB
Round 3	20	45	44	0	20	45	44	19	52	36	WR
Round 4	13	36	36	0	13	36	36	12	44	27	DT
Round 5	11	44	25	0	11	44	25	9	54	16	C
Round 6	11	37	30	0	11	37	30	10	44	22	S
Round 7	9	21	43	0	9	21	43	7	21	33	RB

[RPI-Fan]

I have a screenshot of the results that is much cleaner; I need somewhere to host it. If someone could help me out, I'd appreciate it - thanks!

[fof playa]

I sent you a pm regarding hosting.

[Daimyo]

I can't really decipher those results, but my experience so far is that players who get playing time develop a lot better. In fact it seems that if you start a guy from game 1, have good coaching at his position, and have a mentor or two they will often very quickly develop past their potential.

[RPI-Fan]

Basically: When they played, they gained between 3-5 scout points, even before the next training camp.

When they sat, they stayed completely stagnant before the next training camp.

[cuervo72]

I thought I noticed that in FOF4 - for instance, after some wins my QB might gain a point.

[fof playa]

[RPI-Fan]

Results from training camp appeared fairly equal for both the guys who played and those who didn't.

Although it is too small of a sample size to draw a conclusion, this leads me to hypothesize that in-season development is the most critical for young players. Those who play full-time will gain 3-5 "current" points, and lose less potential, than those who do not play.

When they go to training camp, their previous season's playing time is unimportant.

[RPI-Fan]

I may or may not do an experiment on this at some point. I'd encourage somebody else to, as if I do it won't be in the near future.

[Maple Leafs]

Not sure how you'd draft an experiment for this, but it would be interesting to see whether the quality of play has any affect.

For example, if you throw your rookie CB out there and he get's picked apart, will it harm his development? Would it be better to use him as a nickel back, and ease him in?

I don't want to see a Madden development system where the only way to improve someone is to use them and hope they get some lucky INTs or TDs. But it would be nice at some point to have to wonder "Am I ruining this kid's confidence by trotting him out there to get killed every game?"

[cthomer5000]

I've recently had my first round picks start from day 1. My stud defensive tackle showed modest improvement by the end of the season. He played pretty so-so, but was good enough to earn defensive rookie honors.

My recent WR showed incredible growth by the end of the season. He went from about 30% red to about 70%, he went from rookie to solid player in just 16 games.

I think there is probably something unique to each player that determines how quickly they grow, but I'm sure that the number of snaps they play has a lot to do with it. Still, no real explenation for why my DT showed some gains, while the WR practically exploded.

[cuervo72]

cthomer, I would also guess that his might be position related. I'd expect RB's to have a faster learning curve as they can make a big impact early and have shorter careers. WR's can make a big difference early on too (though I think the prevailing wisdom is not in their rookie year). Linemen and QB's have longer careers and also a steeper learning curve (their positions are greatly "knowledge based" rather than being primarily athletic), so I'd expect their development to be more gradual.

Or you might just have a heck of a receiver

[RPI-Fan]

Don't forget about the O-Coordinator ratings. In TCY, at least, that made a HUGE difference.

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by cuervo72
Or you might just have a heck of a receiver

He's the 3rd WR I've taken in the first round in 6 years.. I was due.