OT - Big NFL trades that worked out

[QuikSand]

With the news about Keyshawn's apparent demise with the Bucs, it got me to thinking -- the Bucs really did give up a lot for him, didn't they? He was supposed to be the last piece of the puzzle for them, as I originally recall. They gave NYJ two first round picks-- I cannot recall which players they selected with those picks exactly, but I believe they got both Chad Pennington and Anthony Becht in that draft, among their four first rounders.

Anyway... so I was thinking about this as one of the more notable "big trades" in recent NFL history. Particularly setting aside draft day trades (one team just moving up to get a higher draft pick), how often does a team give up more than a first rounder to acquire a player? I'm sure that I'm forgetting some cases... but the ones that I can think of recent times are:

-Dallas sends two first rounders to Seattle for Joey Galloway

-Carolina sends two first rounders to Washington for Sean Gilbert

-Minnesota, of course, sends the legendary flotilla of talent and picks to Dallas for Herschel Walker

All three, of course, have something in common along with the Keyshawn-to-Bucs deal -- the player received in trade never lived up to expectations by any measure. At least two of these, and maybe all four, would have to go into the "bust" catgeory.


The biggest draft day deals I can recall in recent years are those where teams moved up to get Michael Vick and Ryan Leaf. One major bust there, and one that looks like it might work out after all. But I know there are more draft day trades that I am not recalling right off the top of my head now.

I also want to set aside trades that turned out, in the end, to be really big deals. Whatever bag of trinkets Atlanta got for Brett Favre certainly wasn't quite enough in retrospect... but that's a whole different kind of deal that what I'm contemplating.


When was the last time that an NFL team made a huge trade to get an established player, and the player actually worked out and became a star for the team getting him?

[Hands to the Face]

Though I'm not entirely sure which players were involved in the three-team swap in which the Colts netted Eric Dickerson, I believe it could be argued that he logged a few decent seasons for Indy (and led them to at least one division title, if I recall correctly) before hanging it up.

[Fritz]

Miami - two firsts (plus) for Ricky

[Chubby]

NO - their whole draft for Ricky

[mckerney]

Trading Brad Johnson to Washington seemed to work out alright.

[VPI97]

Colts traded Marshall Faulk to the Rams for second & fifth round picks. Eh, maybe that's not big enough, though.

[scooper]

Originally posted by Chubby
NO - their whole draft for Ricky

No, that was the Saints.

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by Fritz
Miami - two firsts (plus) for Ricky

Yes. It was a first right off the bat, then a 2nd that could turn into a 1st with 1,500 yards (or something). There's no denying it worked out last year, but the rest of that story is yet to be written.

St. Louis robbed Indy for Marshall Faulk, but I don't think this would qualify as a "big trade"

Mirer to the Bears. Was that 1 or 2 first rounders? Obviously that was a disaster.

I can't even recall any other big trades from the last 8 years or so.

[JeeberD]

Originally posted by scooper
No, that was the Saints.

NO = New Orleans

[FrogMan]

Originally posted by Chubby
NO - their whole draft for Ricky

But that was a "moving up on draft day" kind of trade, I mean they didn't get Ricky from another team...

Ricky to Miami fits better regarding what QS is looking for.

FM

[Chubby]

Originally posted by scooper
No, that was the Saints.

NO = New Orleans

no means no

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Fritz
Miami - two firsts (plus) for Ricky

Of course, obvious omission on my part.

[RPI-Fan]

Am I mistaken, or did the Bucs win a Super Bowl last year?

While he may not be leading them to some great dynasty, the Bucs have a ring, and Keyshawn was on the time that won it.

[Chubby]

Originally posted by FrogMan
But that was a "moving up on draft day" kind of trade, I mean they didn't get Ricky from another team...

Ricky to Miami fits better regarding what QS is looking for.

FM

I thought they shipped off their whole draft to the team that had the #1 overall that year tho. I agree it's not exactly what QS is talking about but it's still a big trade.

[cuervo72]

2002 #1
2003 #1
2002 #2
2004 #2
$8M

for

Jon Gruden

ok, so he's a coach

[Sidhe]

That Saints deal has to be one of the worst ever. I have been a long suffering fan, and when Ditka pulled that caper I nearly died of a heart attack. Not only did he make the trade, he made it virtually impossible for Ricky to succede in NO the way he did it: publicly announcing *before* the draft that he'd give up the whole slate for the one kid.

I believe the Redskins GM said somewhere down the line that they would have made the trade for less than Ditka offered.. What a dumbarse!!! I was dancing in the streets the day the axe fell on him and his crew of chuckleheads.. (can you tell I'm bitter? LOL!)

Anyway, then Deuce fell to us and Miami took little Ricky off our hands. Though I wouldn't say that Ricky has been any kind of bust in Miami.

[henry296]

Elway to the Broncos from the Colts.

The Steelers got Bettis from St. Louis for some picks, I think a 2nd?

[FrogMan]

Originally posted by Chubby
I thought they shipped off their whole draft to the team that had the #1 overall that year tho. I agree it's not exactly what QS is talking about but it's still a big trade.

Not to be nitpicky, but I will be Ricky was drafted 5th overall...

FM

[Chubby]

Originally posted by FrogMan
Not to be nitpicky, but I will be Ricky was drafted 5th overall...

FM

ok, got me there

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by RPI-Fan
Am I mistaken, or did the Bucs win a Super Bowl last year?

While he may not be leading them to some great dynasty, the Bucs have a ring, and Keyshawn was on the time that won it.

So were any number of other players. So what?

I don't claim that Keyshawn is a complete and total bust in the sense that Ryan Leaf was, of course... but by all means, if the Bucs knew exactly what they would have ended up getting from Keyshawn during his tenure with the team, would they have even considered trading away one first rounder, much less two?

If you want to argue that the trade is justified simply because they won the SB, then we'll have to agree to disagree. (By your argument thus far, that means that their third-string safety from last year was worth two first rounders) I think that the "trade" for Gruden would be much more defensible on those grounds, actually.

[JAG]

Funny you mentioned this Quik, I just looked to see which of the four first rounders the Jets had that year they got from the Keyshawn deal. It was actually John Abraham and Anthony Becht, although you could argue they wouldn't have taken Pennington in the first round, who may have been considered a 'luxury' pick, if they didn't have the extra picks from the trade.

Another thing in common with the trades you mentioned: At least two of those teams made the deal in order to try and win a championship by getting what was beileved to be the last piece of the puzzle. All three teams, of course, failed. Perhaps you can argue the Bucs' deal was at least successful from the standpoint that they did win a title with all their trades of first round picks for Gruden and Keyshawn.

Interestingly, the best example I can think of a big deal working out for both teams is the Patriots trading a first round pick (that ended up being either DE Shaun Ellis or Chad Pennington) for Bill Belichick. You can't argue with the production the Jets got for him and meanwhile he's turned the Patriots into a Super Bowl winner.

Actually, just thought of one more ripoff trade from that same draft actually: The Redskins traded two first round picks (which turned into Ahmed Plummer and Julian Peterson) and a couple other draft picks that I believe turned into nothing for the 3rd overall pick (which turned into Chris Samuels).

[Hammer755]

1983 - John Elway for Chris Hinton, Mark Hermann, and Denver's #1 pick in 1984 (which turned into Pro-Bowler Ron Solt, who was then traded for a #1 in 1989 - which I believe turned into Andre Rison - and a #4 in 1990).

Many people think this is a hugely lopsided deal, but they got two solid O-Lineman in Solt and Hinton, who may possibly be a HOF'er, and I've always thought Elway was a touch overrated (this may just be the Browns fan in me talking).

[cuervo72]

Ugh, don't remind me about Ron Solt.

[cthomer5000]

Not a trade, but with the Curtis Martin signing....

didn't the Jets give up more than a first round pick for him? Whatever it was, I remember the Pats picked total garbage with the Curtis and Bill Parcells picks. I don't think a single player did anything significant for them.

[Darkiller]

San Francisco picking up Steve Young from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 1987 against 2nd & 4th round picks !

[Chubby]

Elway is a tad oevrrated in that he isn't god, but still a HOF QB.

[JAG]

Jets gave up a first and third for him. Parcells didn't think Pete Carroll could draft worth a damn and hurt him for that signing. Good call on his part.

It's been pointed out before, but it seems more mistakes are made with receivers in free agency/trades than at any other position (Anthony Miller, Joey Galloway, Alvin Harper, letting Jimmy Smith go, just to name Dallas receivers alone over the past 8 years). I wonder why that is.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by JAG
Actually, just thought of one more ripoff trade from that same draft actually: The Redskins traded two first round picks (which turned into Ahmed Plummer and Julian Peterson) and a couple other draft picks that I believe turned into nothing for the 3rd overall pick (which turned into Chris Samuels).

I don't follow closely enough to have my own opinion, but this year most Redskins fans would probably say that the Samuels pick turned into nothing as well. (He's getting trashed around these parts)

[JAG]

I'll agree that's not as cut and dried as some of these, especially if Samuels ends up working out over the next however many years, but a starting corner and one of the best linebackers in the game for him seems a pretty good deal to me.

[Chief Rum]

Originally posted by Hands to the Face
Though I'm not entirely sure which players were involved in the three-team swap in which the Colts netted Eric Dickerson, I believe it could be argued that he logged a few decent seasons for Indy (and led them to at least one division title, if I recall correctly) before hanging it up.

That deal was between the Colts, Rams and Bills.

I don't remember the specifics, but I do remember generally what the teams got out of it.

The Colts got Dickerson. The Bills got Cornelius Bennett. The Rams got a young quarterback named Jim "Cris" Everett and a lot of picks, some of which they turned into Gaston Green and Flipper Anderson, among others. They may have gotten Tom Newberry in the deal as well, although I'm, not certain of that.

Basically, the Colts got a great back in his prime who did well for them, the Bills got a key defensive player for their Super Bowl teams, and the Rams got the firepower which fueled them to contend with the Niners in the NFC West in the late 80s.

I think it worked out pretty well for everybody.

CR

[scooper]

Misread you Chubby. I read it as "no"

[Bee]

Originally posted by JAG
I'll agree that's not as cut and dried as some of these, especially if Samuels ends up working out over the next however many years, but a starting corner and one of the best linebackers in the game for him seems a pretty good deal to me.

Until this season, Samuels was considered one of the better young LTs in the game. I tend to blame the piss poor coaching and college level blocking schemes than Samuels for his struggles, although I still would consider him "unproven, but promising". I'd still probably give a slight nod to Arizona on the trade, but I'd hardly consider it one sided.

[QuikSand]

While I agree that the various "big trades" involving draft picks or just-drafted players make for interesting conversation -- there's a reason why I sought to focus on trades for established star players. One would think that teams would only be willing to part with giant sums for such star players (who, in modern times, generally come complete with fat contracts) if they really felt that these players would make a really big contribution to their team right away.

Trading for draft picks is tougher to assess -- Washington didn't trade away Ahmed Plummer and Julian Peterson, of course -- they traded away two late first round picks. Adding the eventual outcome of draft picks to the evaluation of the trade just introduces a great element of chance into the picture, and makes weird, lopsided results seem all the more expected.

My original point is that it's fairly rare for teams to be willing to pony up a whole lot for an establiished veteran player... so when they do, you'd think it would be for a pretty sure thing. Thus, it seems odd to me that this usually turns out to be a poor move, at least with most (3 or 4 out of 5) of the examples we can come up with.

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by QuikSand
My original point is that it's fairly rare for teams to be willing to pony up a whole lot for an establiished veteran player... so when they do, you'd think it would be for a pretty sure thing. Thus, it seems odd to me that this usually turns out to be a poor move, at least with most (3 or 4 out of 5) of the examples we can come up with.

I guess teams make these moves because they genuinely believe they are going to work out.

We need a #1 receiver. Lets trade 2 unknown draft picks for one established "superstar" receiver. There's no reason we should expect this acquistion to not work out.

It's probably short-sighted, or too much faith in your scouting, coaching, or the player.

These blockbuster trades don't happen often enough for us to really determine how often they work out on a macro scale, and we also can't ever know what the team would have gotten out of the draft picks they've given up.

Seeing how risky the draft is anyhow, I wouldn't fault teams for essentially "doubling down" on an established vet. They may bust, but their chances of winning the trade seem to be in their favor.

Are a few failed trades enough to tell us that they (NFL teams) shouldn't be making these moves at all?

[Fritz]

There was a study a few years ago done on WRs in FA. The conclusion was that established WRs do not move teams well.

[cthomer5000]

Originally posted by Fritz
There was a study a few years ago done on WRs in FA. The conclusion was that established WRs do not move teams well.

I've realized this, and luckily most of my fantasy football league has not.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by cthomer5000
Are a few failed trades enough to tell us that they (NFL teams) shouldn't be making these moves at all?

No, of course not. It's certainly possible that it's just been bad luck or some of the other factors you describe explainin this small sample size.

Maybe the teams who would be willing to make a big move like this are also those with weaknesses in their front office such that they might be inclined to miss the fact that the player they are getting isn't a great fit after all.

[Senator]

With a bum knee OJ Simpson to the 49ers in 1978, for 5 draft picks. The Bills recieved for O.J. Simpson, San Francisco's #2 (DE Scott Hutchinson) in '78, #3 (WR Danny Fulton) in '78, #1 (LB Tom Cousineau, who would be traded to Cleveland in '82 for the draft pick used to select QB Jim Kelly) in '79, #4 (DE Ken Johnson) in '79 and #2 (Joe Cribbs) in '80.

[HornedFrog Purple]

I believe it was a given that the Colts were not going to be able to resign Faulk after that season because of cap room so they traded him. So the Rams rented him for a season then signed him to a large deal because they were able to. I might be wrong, it was a few years ago.l

I guess if I was the Colts knowing Faulk would be going elsewhere, at least I was able to get something in return.

[HornedFrog Purple]

Oh... the Cowboys traded a 1st and 3 2nd rounders to move up to the 2nd overall pick to draft Tony Dorsett in 1977.

[SegRat]

Dont remember the exact details, But Green Bay traded some injured cb to Seattle for Ahman Green. I would say Green has turned into a star.

[Pyser]

kevin carter was traded to ten for a late first rd pick....

im not sure that really worked out for anybody.

bledsoe was traded for a first rounder.

and of course coles went to washington for first rd compensation...thats too early to call though.

what was trent green traded for? wasnt that a first rounder, too?

and hasselback in seattle was a first or 2nd rounder, as well.

[Pyser]

also, was brunell traded to jax from gb?

and brooks was traded from gb to new orleans (sorry i dont have the draft pick info for all these).

[Noble_Platypus]

Colts traded 2 #1's for LB Fredd Young from seattle.

Wasnt worth 1 #1, let alone two

[Chief Rum]

Originally posted by Pyser
kevin carter was traded to ten for a late first rd pick....

im not sure that really worked out for anybody.

Actually, that late pick became Adam Archuleta, who has probably worked out best so far of the Rams' three first rounders that year.

Carter, of course, has been hit and miss.

CR

[QuikSand]

Let me see if I've got this straight... (to nobody in particular)

From time to time, players are traded and then go on to become a lot better than they were perceived to be at the time of the trade.

From time to time, teams trade for or trade away draft picks, and the players selected with those picks turn out to be surprisingly good or surprisingly bad.

Do we need more evidence to all agree to both of these things?

[tucker342]

It seems like trading isn't a very big thing in the NFL(except on draft day). But it's very hard to think of any really big trades not involving draft picks

[Laddin]

Priest Holmes to the Chiefs was essentially a trade.

We'll give you this draft pick if you don't match the offer sheet.

Imho I think a lot of it is perception. Would we remember the ones that worked? Also in football, trades for players don't have the impact that basebal or basketball have. If a team is willing to trade a player, they are also willing to release the player and you can get him for free.

[Daimyo]

Didn't the Redskins give up a 1st round pick when they signed Coles? While not technically a trade I guess that's probably how they evaluated it when they did it.