Andy Pettitte signed by Astros?

[Alan T]

ESPN Radio is reporting from local Houston Sources that Houston has signed Andy Pettitte, and this will be announced likely Friday at the Winter meetings...


So what are the Yankees next move? Any thoughts?

[Chubby]

I think they are going after Vladdy Daddy..

[rkmsuf]

Probably will finalize a Sheffeild deal and look for some pitching...Milwood? Maddox?

[Alan T]

Originally posted by rkmsuf
Probably will finalize a Sheffeild deal and look for some pitching...Milwood? Maddox?

My understanding is the Sheffield deal is dead.

[rkmsuf]

Originally posted by Alan T
My understanding is the Sheffield deal is dead.

They'll get it done...it's the perfect fit...

[Samdari]

Originally posted by rkmsuf
Maddox?

I think this is an automatic.

[McSweeny]

Originally posted by Samdari
I think this is an automatic.

nope

maddux has stated that he doesn't want to pitch in the AL and be farther than an hour plane flight from his home in Sand Deigo

[RPI-Fan]

Go 'stros!!!!

[primelord]

Originally posted by McSweeny
nope

maddux has stated that he doesn't want to pitch in the AL and be farther than an hour plane flight from his home in Sand Deigo

That isn't what he has said despite the fact the media keeps reporting that. He has said he prefers to be on the west coast and the he would prefer to play in the NL, however he has also said he is intrigued by playing for the Cubs again to kind of bring his career full circle. He also mentioned he wouldn't mind playign for the Cardinals because of the atmosphere and for the Yankees because he would like to win another ring.

[FishFan]

I thought Maddux usually doesn't talk about his negotiations and personal life in the media. Is this all speculation?

As for the Sheffield deal, I hope the Yankees get it done but it does not look hopeful. Nothing would be sweeter than seeing the boss throw away another $39 million on another DH (Williams/Giambi). But, Sheffield wants even more money now (wtf?) and the Boss seems shafted that Sheff basically renegged on a verbal agreement. They are probably done.

Pettite to the Astros doesn't make since for Houston. They are trying to cut payroll and did so by shipping out Wagner. Now, they'll just replace that huge contract with another one. Plus, they have no proven closer (sure, Dotel is talented, but it's a different scenario coming on in the 9th). The 'Stros will likely have to get rid of another contract or two (Hidalgo? Biggio? Bagwell?) to make payroll.

So far, no club has made real significant moves to improve. The Cubs have added a couple of guys to key areas but need to do more. The Phillies added a couple of relievers, but will need to replace Milwood with something other than Milton. The Mets may have found the biggest steal, signing Kaz Matsui to a reasonable contract.

The rest of the offseason will be interesting as many clubs are reducing payroll and players are not budging from their ridiculous salary demands. Who will budge first? And, who will gain the most by meeting the players' demands first.

[Samdari]

Originally posted by McSweeny
maddux has stated that he doesn't want to pitch in the AL and be farther than an hour plane flight from his home in Sand Deigo

Sure, he prefers that. But, would $20 million dollars change his preferences?

[FishFan]

Nobody is going to pay Maddux more than $10 million. Not even the Yankees can afford to throw away an extra $10 million.

[RPI-Fan]

Fish: The thought among pretty much every Astros fan when the Wagner deal was made was that we were essentially trading him for Pettitte.

We were trying to get rid of payroll with Wagner, but we knew we'd be getting it back in Pettitte. No surprises here...

[FishFan]

But, the goal of the offseason for the Stros was to cut payroll quite a bit. If they sign Pettite, they have not cut any payroll. I don't expect everyone to be back next year. I know they are shopping Hidalgo and Biggio, but am not certain about Bagwell.

[Tasan]

The goal was to cut payroll so they could afford to sign a starter like Pettite.

[FishFan]

OK

[Hammer755]

Originally posted by Tasan
The goal was to cut payroll so they could afford to sign a starter like Pettite.

But with the Pettitte signing, they won't cut payroll, it will be a straight addition to last season's team salary. The Astros front office has repeatedly said here in the local media that the raises required this season to players already under contract will offset the loss of Wagner's salary.

At this point, the Astros would do anything to get someone to take Richard Hidalgo's salary off of their hands. I think that Houston will make some kind of deal to cut more payroll.

[FishFan]

Originally posted by Hammer755
At this point, the Astros would do anything to get someone to take Richard Hidalgo's salary off of their hands. I think that Houston will make some kind of deal to cut more payroll.

Anything. ANYTHING!

[Ksyrup]

Originally posted by FishFan
So far, no club has made real significant moves to improve...The Phillies added a couple of relievers, but will need to replace Milwood with something other than Milton.

Are you kidding? They substantially upgraded their bullpen, added Milton, and offered arbitration to Milwood, who indicated that it was "likely" he would accept. A comeback year from Burrell is tantamount to adding a Grade B+ free agent to the offense.

This team has no excuse for not making the playoffs, barring a slew of injuries.

[Ksyrup]

Originally posted by primelord
That isn't what he has said despite the fact the media keeps reporting that. He has said he prefers to be on the west coast and the he would prefer to play in the NL, however he has also said he is intrigued by playing for the Cubs again to kind of bring his career full circle. He also mentioned he wouldn't mind playign for the Cardinals because of the atmosphere and for the Yankees because he would like to win another ring.

From the AJC:

Maddux and agent Scott Boras said they've had discussions with several teams and expect multi-year proposals for the four-time Cy Young Award winner. Teams that have indicated interest include San Diego, Los Angeles, Anaheim, St. Louis and his former team, the Cubs.

"One hour [flight], that's San Diego, LA, Anaheim, Arizona," he said. "Four hours, that covers pretty much pretty much every other part of the country. Location's important, and having a chance to win again is important. If you can get both, great. One's OK, too."

[Maple Leafs]

George: Dammit! The Astros signed Pettite! What do we do now, Brian?
Cashman: We actually already have plenty of starters.
George: No, we need to respond to this now!
Cashman: I really don't think...
George: Go get Roy Halladay!
Cashman: Um...
George: Now!
Cashman: You see, he's under contract and...
George: NOW!

(Next day's headline:" Yankees buy Blue Jays")

[tucker342]

LOL`

[sterlingice]

Originally posted by Alan T
My understanding is the Sheffield deal is dead.

I'm guessing he'll be wearing pinstripes- George got caught with his hands in the cookie jar (again) because you aren't supposed to be able to negotiate with other players until this past Monday. If you sign someone before that deadline, you forfeit a 1st round draft pick. I'm guessing this is just a little smokescreen so that they don't have to give the Braves a 1st rounder.

SI

[astralhaze]

Originally posted by rkmsuf
Maddox?

In his prime there is no doubt that Gary was a great defensive player, but at the age of 54, I'm not sure that he has all that much left.

[Easy Mac]

Supposedly, I think it was Petey G from Boston, reported that Steinbrenner tried to backload Sheff's contract w/o Sheff knowing that was the deal (I think it was like 15 mil in deffered money). Sheff thought it was spread throughout the contract, so when he found out, he said no deal.

Oh, and can I say FUCK AOL. Your fucking ruining the Braves. We lost Sheff and Lopez? For what? So we could sign NO ONE? WTF? Estrada? yeah, he could be a pretty good catcher if his AAA numbers translate. But we have no one to play right field. We have no first baseman and no third baseman. Furcal... god I loathe him. I don't know how many career years Giles can have at 2nd, Andruw is on the downward side of his career, and Larry... don't get me started on him.

Hopefully all those young arms in the farm system pay off (comeone Wainwright and Nelson), or it might be a long few years, because they have very few bats down there (maybe Marte and LaRoche have shown talent)

[Samdari]

Originally posted by Ksyrup
A comeback year from Burrell is tantamount to adding a Grade B+ free agent to the offense.

This team has no excuse for not making the playoffs, barring a slew of injuries.

Well, except they did not add that B+ free agent in rebounding Pat Burrell yet. You say it here like its already happened.

[Ksyrup]

No, what that says is, if he has a comeback year, it is as if they added a Grade B+ free agent. I know stranger things have happened, but I don't think anyone believes he'll do what he did last year again. He might not do what he did the previous year either, but even something in between will be a tremendous lift to the offense.

[Ksyrup]

Looks like it's pretty much official now:


NEW YORK -- Andy Pettitte will pitch at home, agreeing Thursday to a three-year contract with the Houston Astros after playing his entire major league career for the New York Yankees.

New York immediately went to its backup plan, closing in on a trade with Los Angeles that would send Kevin Brown to the Yankees for Jeff Weaver, a baseball official said on the condition of anonymity.

Pettitte made his decision after weighing a new offer from the Yankees on Wednesday night, another baseball source said, also on the condition of anonymity.

The Yankees' offered the left-handed starter $39 million for three years, about $3 million more annually than Houston. But the Astros play near Pettitte's hometown of Deer Park, apparently an important factor.

Houston planned to announce the deal at a news conference Thursday. Pettitte's decision to sign with Houston was first reported by Newsday on its Web site.

Pettitte, 31, went 149-78 with the Yankees, who signed him in 1991. If he had stayed in New York, he would have had the chance to surpass Whitey Ford's 236 victories and become the winningest left-hander in team history.

He went 21-8 with a 4.02 ERA last season.

With the Astros, he joins a team trying to rebuild and win at the same time. Houston dealt closer Billy Wagner to Philadelphia last month in a cost-cutting move. Pettitte will combine with Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt to form a powerful front three in the rotation.

While Houston has had many strong teams since joining the National League for the 1962 season, the Astros have never made it to the World Series.

Pettitte owns four World Series rings from his time with the Yankees.

Without Pettitte, the Yankees are left with a rotation that includes Mike Mussina, Jose Contreras and Javier Vazquez, acquired from Montreal last week. Candidates for the back end of the rotation include Jon Leiber -- who missed all of last season -- and David Wells, who has had back problems and is close to agreement on a minor league contract.

[FishFan]

I hope Pettite can win more games than Biggio and Hidalgo bring to Houston. I'm not sure if this was the right move for the 'Stros.

[John Galt]

3.94 Career ERA, only 1 season since 1997 where he pitched a complete year with an ERA below 4.00 (and that was 3.99) and he is 31 years old. Pettite is an okay pitcher whose only nice stat is a good K/BB ratio. His wins are just a result of pitching for a good team (since there is NO such thing as a pitcher who "knows how to win"). And all of these stats are with a home park that is supposed to be better for left handed pitchers (although I haven't read any statistical evidence on this point). Is he worth 6 or 7 million - maybe if you really want a lefty who will likely pitch a good number of innings (but he has had back trouble). Is he worth more than 10 million - not a chance. I always liked Pettite, but I'm glad the Yankees aren't overpaying him - he isn't a top tier free agent and shouldn't be paid like one.

[oykib]

JG, you're forgetting that he also keeps the ball in the ballpark. His numbers might have been better if anyone on the Yanks could catch the ball. Of course, that skill will be put to the test in Houston.

I can't get upset about it either, though. They offered a truckload more money. What else could they have really done?

[petrochile]

Does anyone else here think that the Juice Box is not a good place for Petite to pitch, especially with it being 310' down the LF line for right handed hitters. It will be interesting to see.

[FishFan]

I was thinking the same thing, petro. The juice box (formerly 10Run Field) could kill Pettite.

[Ksyrup]

Originally posted by John Galt
3.94 Career ERA, only 1 season since 1997 where he pitched a complete year with an ERA below 4.00 (and that was 3.99) and he is 31 years old. Pettite is an okay pitcher whose only nice stat is a good K/BB ratio. His wins are just a result of pitching for a good team (since there is NO such thing as a pitcher who "knows how to win"). And all of these stats are with a home park that is supposed to be better for left handed pitchers (although I haven't read any statistical evidence on this point). Is he worth 6 or 7 million - maybe if you really want a lefty who will likely pitch a good number of innings (but he has had back trouble). Is he worth more than 10 million - not a chance. I always liked Pettite, but I'm glad the Yankees aren't overpaying him - he isn't a top tier free agent and shouldn't be paid like one.

Either is Jeter, but they're paying him for his "intangibles." Based strictly on stats, I wouldn't pay Jeter $10M a year, let alone $19M.

You're right, though, Pettitte is highly regarded because (a) he plays for the Yankees and (b) he has recently pitched well in the post-season. I recall going to a Devil Rays game in 1998 against the Yankees, and it was Tony Saunders v. Pettitte. At the time, Saunders was something like 2-11, and Pettitte was maybe 12-8, but Saunders had the better ERA. In fact, I think he finished that year with a better ERA than Pettitte - but 10 less wins.

[Ksyrup]

Originally posted by oykib
JG, you're forgetting that he also keeps the ball in the ballpark. His numbers might have been better if anyone on the Yanks could catch the ball. Of course, that skill will be put to the test in Houston.

I can't get upset about it either, though. They offered a truckload more money. What else could they have really done?

Maybe they could have offered a 4th year? I don't know, but that's what immediately struck me about their offer - more money, but same length.

[John Galt]

Originally posted by oykib
JG, you're forgetting that he also keeps the ball in the ballpark. His numbers might have been better if anyone on the Yanks could catch the ball. Of course, that skill will be put to the test in Houston.

I can't get upset about it either, though. They offered a truckload more money. What else could they have really done?

He was good at stopping the long ball (although that was one area where he slipped a bit last year), but his overall ERA is pretty suspect even factoring that in. You can blame that on the Yankee defense, but even that doesn't make Pettite more than an average pitcher who is likely to decline. I just think this is a classic case of opportunity cost - would I like to see Pettite back - yes, but not if it further ties up money which could be better spent. Plus, if the Brown trade goes through, we are looking at:

Mussina
Brown
Vazquez
Lieber
Wells

I think that is a better rotation than last year and one that is much cheaper. Now, if only we had kept Nick.

[FishFan]

That's an ok rotation until Leiber's arm falls off.

[Ksyrup]

Originally posted by John Galt

Mussina
Brown
Vazquez
Lieber
Wells

I think that is a better rotation than last year and one that is much cheaper. Now, if only we had kept Nick.

Interesting question - would you rather have spent $51M on Colon and kept Nick Johnson, or have Vazquez (assuming they can sign him to a long-term deal) and lose Johnson?

[Ksyrup]

Originally posted by FishFan
That's an ok rotation until Leiber's arm falls off.

And the bigger question - will that be due to his prior arm inuries, or a freak accident while attempting to help David Wells off of the mound when his back gives out again?

[Hammer755]

Originally posted by John Galt
3.94 Career ERA, only 1 season since 1997 where he pitched a complete year with an ERA below 4.00 (and that was 3.99) and he is 31 years old. Pettite is an okay pitcher whose only nice stat is a good K/BB ratio. His wins are just a result of pitching for a good team (since there is NO such thing as a pitcher who "knows how to win"). And all of these stats are with a home park that is supposed to be better for left handed pitchers (although I haven't read any statistical evidence on this point). Is he worth 6 or 7 million - maybe if you really want a lefty who will likely pitch a good number of innings (but he has had back trouble). Is he worth more than 10 million - not a chance. I always liked Pettite, but I'm glad the Yankees aren't overpaying him - he isn't a top tier free agent and shouldn't be paid like one.

My first reaction was that adding Pettitte to a giant contract would be a huge mistake. However, after some discussion on a couple of other forums, including the OOTP Board, I think this may be a good fit for a few reasons.

1. As you say, Pettitte has a good K/BB ratio.
2. Pettitte is a ground ball pitcher whose middle infield the past 2 seasons has been Jeter & Soriano - no doubt the worst combo in the majors. In Houston he'll get to have perhaps the best defensive SS in the game playing behind him in Adam Everett.

A couple of either risks or unknowns for Pettitte moving to Houston.
1. Ballparks - LF and the power alleys are a ton different in Minute Maid and Yankee Stadium. However, as mentioned before, Pettitte is the most prolific groundball pitcher this side of Derek Lowe.
2. Offense - On the surface, the Yankee and Astro offense seem pretty similar. However, the Yankee lineup has always come to the rescue of Pettitte. They scored over 7 R/G in Pettitte's starts this season, tops in the majors. That pattern has consistently repeated itself every season since Pettitte's debut. I would bet that he has the best run support in the game over the past 5 seasons.

So there are risks, but overall, I think this is a pretty good deal for Houston.

[John Galt]

Originally posted by Ksyrup
Either is Jeter, but they're paying him for his "intangibles." Based strictly on stats, I wouldn't pay Jeter $10M a year, let alone $19M.

You're right, though, Pettitte is highly regarded because (a) he plays for the Yankees and (b) he has recently pitched well in the post-season. I recall going to a Devil Rays game in 1998 against the Yankees, and it was Tony Saunders v. Pettitte. At the time, Saunders was something like 2-11, and Pettitte was maybe 12-8, but Saunders had the better ERA. In fact, I think he finished that year with a better ERA than Pettitte - but 10 less wins.

Despite rumors to the contrary, Pettite is not a great post season pitcher. He has a career 4.27 post season ERA.

And yes, Jeter is overpaid by a boatload, but he was overpaid in a different economy. The Yankees have also overpaid for Williams, Giambi (at the end of his contract), Henson, Matsui, Posada (at the end of his contract), Clemens, Hitchcock, Karsay, Hammonds, etc. We finally got rid of a couple of those bad contracts, but we are going to be stuck with a lot of bad deals for the next few years. I just didn't think signing Pettite was worth it at the dollar figures people were talking about.

[FishFan]

Originally posted by Ksyrup
And the bigger question - will that be due to his prior arm inuries, or a freak accident while attempting to help David Wells off of the mound when his back gives out again?

Plus, the Brown trade won't go through, so the Yankees are stuck with:

Mussina
Vazquez (who was #2 in pitcher stress points last year)

and?

Contreras maybe?

[Ksyrup]

Originally posted by John Galt
Despite rumors to the contrary, Pettite is not a great post season pitcher. He has a career 4.27 post season ERA.

That's why I said "recent."

[John Galt]

Originally posted by Ksyrup
Interesting question - would you rather have spent $51M on Colon and kept Nick Johnson, or have Vazquez (assuming they can sign him to a long-term deal) and lose Johnson?

As a fan, I'd rather have Nick because he was my favorite Yankee, but I think Vazquez is a MUCH better pitcher than Colon. Colon's K total has been way down and is pretty much the same pitcher as Pettite. Vazquez, on the other hand, is younger, durable, and has put up incredible peripheral numbers. He is one of the top 5 pitchers I'd want on my team (accounting for age and contract).

[John Galt]

Originally posted by Ksyrup
That's why I said "recent."

True, but recency is all about small sample sizes. He seems to either pitch a gem or get shelled in the postseason. He just hasn't proven he is any better in the postseason over time.

[Ksyrup]

Originally posted by John Galt
True, but recency is all about small sample sizes. He seems to either pitch a gem or get shelled in the postseason. He just hasn't proven he is any better in the postseason over time.

I understand that, but my point is that the perception of him as a top tier free agent is no doubt fueled, in part, by what people remember. And recently, he's come up big for them, or at least that's what the media is telling people. Perception becomes reality.

[Hammer755]

Originally posted by John Galt
True, but recency is all about small sample sizes. He seems to either pitch a gem or get shelled in the postseason. He just hasn't proven he is any better in the postseason over time.

Isn't it odd that Pettitte has thrown roughly 200 IP in the post-season, which is about one entire regular season, and his career post-season numbers are nearly identical to his career regular season totals.

It's strange how sample size works out like that.

[John Galt]

Originally posted by FishFan
Plus, the Brown trade won't go through, so the Yankees are stuck with:

Mussina
Vazquez (who was #2 in pitcher stress points last year)

and?

Contreras maybe?

Vazquez has been overworked, but he is past the injury nexus age and now just appears to be a workhorse. And with the Yankees ridiculously overpaid bullpen, he won't need to work late into games all the time.

I've heard the Brown deal is done, but if it doesn't come through, things are still better. I'd rather have:

Mussina, Vazquez, Wells, Leiber, Contreras

than

Mussina, Clemens, Pettite, Wells, Weaver

The new pitching staff is cheaper and has more Hubie Brown upside, so I'm happy even if they don't get Kevin Brown.

Now, if only George would stop playing Peter Angelos with the position players.

[Ksyrup]

My people keep telling me, 'Jack Cust, Jack Cust'...

[rkmsuf]

Cotton uniforms, that's interesting...