Day Trading Keepers

[OldGiants]

I decided to look into the possibilities of buying about-to-pop keepers (inadequate to passable) who played a game this week, thereby qualifying for training without my need to sit down one of my two regular dudes.

Not surprising, there is hefty bidding on these folk. What is surprising is that all 4 potentials this week went to one guy, Ludopatia F. C. 121444.

Seems to me he overbid, slashed his margins, whatever. His track record on day trading looks dodgy to me. A few winners, more losers than is prudent.

Anyway, here are the four keepers he bought:

1/22/2004 Bought Periklis Pilafis from Diomedea Exulans 55 000 US$ (159 000 US$)
1/22/2004 Bought Lembit Veiler from Kotkas Juunior 60 000 US$ (148 000 US$)
1/22/2004 Bought Nils Dverg from Silivri_FC 62 000 US$ (148 000 US$)
1/22/2004 Bought Tobias Balder from FC Los Bastardos 62 000 US$ (159 000 US$)

I'm tracking them to see what he sells them for, and I'll report back, but it sure seems he paid way too close for what these guys can be expected to bring next week.

Seems a pretty thin margin business, at best. I think I'll ignore it.

[Vince]

Yeah, like you said, a thin margin, and a lot of work. Not the type of thing for me.

[BishopMVP]

I used to day-train GK's, but it really kills your team spirit. Just not worth it, especially since the GK Calculator came out and more people are on to it.

[OldGiants]

thanks for the confirmations.

One other training scheme I've thought of also seems to be prevalent: training set pieces instead of stamina once my team is set. I noticed quite a few keepers with decent set piece skill and I attribute that to people training set piece between seasons. I thought that would be a way for a keeper trainer to increase the value of outfield players who otherwise will only decline in resale value as they get older. It could be a good idea, with the side effect of making keepers so trained unreliable for the GK Calculator, since they will be higher in value than pure keepers.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I dunno... I turned a $60k+ profit daytraining earlier this season. Bought a high passable for $100k (maybe could have been less if I'd been online at the close of bidding), flipped him for $170k after an attempt at IIRC $180k fell through.

[Alf]

Why don't you try to daytrade on higher levels (solid-excellents) ?

[BishopMVP]

There are occasionally good deals like the 60k you made if you search hard enough, and if you can find one by all means do it, but overall, it just isn't worth the effort, IMO.

The reason why daytrain doesn't work for higher levels is that there are very few high solid Keeper youth pull's, and unless someone is an idiot, they will sell a GK right after they pop to solid/excellent/formidable rather than train him an extra 3-4 weeks. I got lucky early this season with a mid-high excellent 18yo for less than 700k who has already popped to outstanding, but those deals aren't out there in high enough quantity to count on one every week.

[OldGiants]

Originally Posted by Alf

Why don't you try to daytrade on higher levels (solid-excellents) ?

Will you loan me the money? LOL

A solid keeper is well beyond my current means.

[OldGiants]

My little experiment deal was a $45,000 purchase, and a $64,000 sale, which when all is said and done is .9 X 64 or 57600 for 12600 less the 1 grand listing or, 11,600. When still about 110,000 in debt every little bit helps, but definitely a yawn.

OTOH, a curious thing happened to Ludopatia. Not only did Nils Dverg not pop, he appears to have dropped 4,000 in value. !?!?

Also, none of the four keepers listed above said (when I last looked before Windows SE went blewie on me and I had to reinstall the sucker yet again) they had played a recent game. Yet if you check the games of their prior teams, you'll see that all four played in friendlies this past week. Why is that?

[Desnudo]

That just means his form dropped. You don't necessarily need to see a full level drop either, high solid to low solid, e.g..

[OldGiants]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

That just means his form dropped. You don't necessarily need to see a full level drop either, high solid to low solid, e.g..

But why didn't he go up from training? Shouldn't that overwhelm a form drop?

[Desnudo]

It depends on how big the form drop is.

[FrogMan]

and it also depends on the current level of your player. Higher level players (say formidable) gain more value than lower level players (say passable) so it's very possible that a passable keeper could gain 10k of value because of training, but lose 14k of value because of a form drop that didn't cause him to lose a full level of form, thus showing a net of minus 4000 as the training update...

Hope this makes sense.

FM

[OldGiants]

Makes sense. My players are younger and they go up >20k per week, so that was throwing me off.

BTW, I can no longer find Ludopatia FC 121444 in Italia, nor any of the players involved. Search brings up nothing. Wha hoppened?


edit>>>my mistake, its Espana.

[FrogMan]

That's because Ludopatia is in Espana

Try this link:
http://195.149.159.158/Common/teamDe...?TeamID=121444

[OldGiants]

It was a severe form drop to inadequate. All four popped to passable, and he's got them listed at $50,000 with a deadline around 22.00 Hattrick time, today.

Also, he day trades in solids :

Ricardo Perales (22819530)

Whom he bought for 210K and sold for 220K, a nice loss of around 10K. This guy is back on the market, priced at $100K

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by OldGiants

thanks for the confirmations.

One other training scheme I've thought of also seems to be prevalent: training set pieces instead of stamina once my team is set. I noticed quite a few keepers with decent set piece skill and I attribute that to people training set piece between seasons. I thought that would be a way for a keeper trainer to increase the value of outfield players who otherwise will only decline in resale value as they get older. It could be a good idea, with the side effect of making keepers so trained unreliable for the GK Calculator, since they will be higher in value than pure keepers.

I did set pieces last season and it was as much for form's sake as anything. My starters already had good stamina so there really was no reason to push it. In the offseason, you only play half your team for at least one week so that's one strike against your form already. Then, if you compound that with stamina training, your second team's form is going to be in the crapper by the time the next season rolls around and so you stand a worse chance in the Cup. And if you need one of those guys to sub in for an injured starter, well, then you're even worse off.

Originally Posted by Alf

Why don't you try to daytrade on higher levels (solid-excellents) ?

I've noticed this doesn't work as well. It's great if you're fumpen and set the markets for levels like outstanding and brilliant. But for the rest of us mere mortals who don't quite have the grasp on the high end market or who don't have that kind of cash floating around- if you buy a player for $3M and can only sell him for $2.7M, oops- you just lost a ton of cash that will badly affect the team.

Basically, as you go up the money pyramid, there are less and less idiots with their money. They didn't get to have lots of money by pissing away all of their money prior to this point. Anything under $200K, you might be able to get someone with their $300K to bite on but most teams, if they have $2M, aren't careless with it. The only exception I was noticing was with trainees- people see more than willing to overlook daytraining of 17yos. Then again, people act very strangely with 17yo trainees because everyone thinks they could have a potential U20 player and so they go nuts.

SI