OT - Road to the Roses, Fantasy horseracing game

[QuikSand]

We've tossed this around here in the last couple years - and it's time once again:

http://www.roadtotheroses.com/

Originally Posted by RTTR site

Can't stop thinking about Kentucky Derby Day? Want to see the best 3-year-old Thoroughbreds in the world charge down the homestretch at Churchill Downs under the famed Twin Spires on the first Saturday in May? Then don't miss this opportunity to get your hands around one of the toughest tickets to find in sports - not to mention a chance to win other premium prizes. Play the 2004 Kentucky Derby "Road to the Roses" Fantasy Challenge! In this free game of skill, fans use their Thoroughbred racing knowledge and handicapping skills or rely on recommendations from our list of handicapping pros to draft a mythical "stable" consisting of:

· 12 horses from the official list of Visa Triple Crown nominees - 10 from an initial draft and two (2) from a supplemental draft.

· Two (2) trainers

· Two (2) jockeys


Your stable will score points based on the results of Kentucky Derby prep races contested throughout the country, starting with the Grade II Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on February 14. The final scoring race in the competition - with the largest number of available points - is the Kentucky Derby on May 1st, 2004. New features to this year's game include the ability to get creative and name your stable, choose your own user name and the opportunity to choose any jockey and trainer that you desire from an expanded listing that includes more than 90 riders and 200 trainers. Also, we've improved the navigation, look and feel to make the game more user friendly. There's no better way to keep track of all the contenders (and pretenders) along the twisting, turning road that paves the way to Louisville on May 1 than to play the Kentucky Derby "Road to the Roses" Fantasy Challenge. Even if you're not in the hunt for the grand prize, you'll have a leg up on your friends and fellow horseplayers on Derby Day, and could turn your keen equine insight into wagering profits or bragging rights for an entire year! Think you're a better trainer than Bobby Frankel or Todd Pletcher? A better racing manager than Demi O'Byrne or Richard Mulhall? Then prove it! Get on the "Road To The Roses" and saddle up for the ride of a lifetime!

This is a contest for some real prizes, and is free to enter. I fully intent to post my thinking here as I develop my list... but I'll offer one statement. If you decide to play, and you win the top prize, and you honestly feel that my input had a lot to do with your winning, I insist that you take me with you to next year's Derby.

With that... Hope some of you have a look - maybe we can keep a group together and watch this as the season goes by (i.e. have a discussion thread as each race weekend arrives).

[rkmsuf]

I've been out of touch since the Breeder's Cup but will focus in on a play...

[Franklinnoble]

I have no real idea which horses are real contenders this year. There have been over 400 nominees to the Triple Crown. How exactly do you come up with a list of 10 by next week?

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

I have no real idea which horses are real contenders this year. There have been over 400 nominees to the Triple Crown. How exactly do you come up with a list of 10 by next week?

Please tell me you bet regularly into the Golden Gate Fields pool...

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

Please tell me you bet regularly into the Golden Gate Fields pool...

I do not.

However, my wife is taking me to Golden Gate Fields for Valentine's Day (she rules). I won't do more than a $2 bet here or there, though... and I'm not too bad when it comes to reading the DRF PP's. Not to mention that my wife is a horse trainer, and is bloody lethal when it comes to judging a horse's conformation, condition, and attitude right before a race.

[QuikSand]

I'll rustle up some links to background on the major players... as I recall, there are a few that work pretty well for this sort of thing.

If you are a member of the online PP service BRISnet, they have past performances for their top 50-75 contenders available, also. Costs a couple of bucks, but well worth it I think -- it really lets you get a sense of who's who.


One piece of global, unsolicited advice... excluse Nick Zito from your trainer pairing at your own peril this year. He is absolutely loaded.

[Chubby]

Entered.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I'll rustle up some links to background on the major players... as I recall, there are a few that work pretty well for this sort of thing.

If you are a member of the online PP service BRISnet, they have past performances for their top 50-75 contenders available, also. Costs a couple of bucks, but well worth it I think -- it really lets you get a sense of who's who.


One piece of global, unsolicited advice... excluse Nick Zito from your trainer pairing at your own peril this year. He is absolutely loaded.

How do the BRISnet PP's compare to the ones you read in the DRF? How much does it cost? Do you have a monthly subscription, or do you pay for just what you read? Isn't a bris a jewish circumcision?

I know Zito's got some runners this year (I'm not TOTALLY oblivious... just haven't been following as close as most years)... what do you think of Baffert's and Lukas's stables? I think Baffert is probably hurting bad after the demise of the Thoroughbred Corporation.

[Chubby]

Once guys set your stables I'll be interested to see if we have any of the same horses.

[The Afoci]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

However, my wife is taking me to Golden Gate Fields for Valentine's Day (she rules). I won't do more than a $2 bet here or there, though... and I'm not too bad when it comes to reading the DRF PP's. Not to mention that my wife is a horse trainer, and is bloody lethal when it comes to judging a horse's conformation, condition, and attitude right before a race.

My future wife is horse trainer in training currently. She is either deadly and picks about two or three box trifectas or she can't pick a show to save her life. Needless to say, we have a few two dollar bets to test the waters until about race 4...

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

How do the BRISnet PP's compare to the ones you read in the DRF? How much does it cost? Do you have a monthly subscription, or do you pay for just what you read? Isn't a bris a jewish circumcision?

-Similar, with a few additions that I really like.

-$3 per card for the top-of-the-line PPS, with various promotions at any time

-I pay for what I download

-Yes, it is... weird, eh?

[QuikSand]

Here is a nice link that might be helpful in building a stable... it shows a few "expert" rankings of the top contenders, including their trainers... that might be enough to work with for the fairly uninitiated.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2004/de..._01012004.html

[Bill Abner]

I'm still ticked that Funny Cide won 3-year old of the year over Empire Maker.

This does look interesting, though.

[QuikSand]

My first draft of my list of ten horses:

ACTION THIS DAY
BIRDSTONE
CHAPEL ROYAL
EUROSILVER
GRADEPOINT
LION HEART
MASTER DAVID
READ THE FOOTNOTES
SECOND OF JUNE
SIR OSCAR
SMARTY JONES
ST AVERIL
TAPIT
THE CLIFF'S EDGE
TIGER HUNT

If you're a real sticker for math, you might notice that my first draft of ten includes fifteen horses. I have some more work to do... and in all likelihood, I'll end up adding at least one who isn't even on this list yet.

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

My first draft of my list of ten horses:

ACTION THIS DAY
BIRDSTONE
CHAPEL ROYAL
EUROSILVER
GRADEPOINT
LION HEART
MASTER DAVID
READ THE FOOTNOTES
SECOND OF JUNE
SIR OSCAR
SMARTY JONES
ST AVERIL
TAPIT
THE CLIFF'S EDGE
TIGER HUNT

If you're a real sticker for math, you might notice that my first draft of ten includes fifteen horses. I have some more work to do... and in all likelihood, I'll end up adding at least one who isn't even on this list yet.

Wow, i was just goning to randomly select names.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

My first draft of my list of ten horses:

ACTION THIS DAY
BIRDSTONE
CHAPEL ROYAL
EUROSILVER
GRADEPOINT
LION HEART
MASTER DAVID
READ THE FOOTNOTES
SECOND OF JUNE
SIR OSCAR
SMARTY JONES
ST AVERIL
TAPIT
THE CLIFF'S EDGE
TIGER HUNT

If you're a real sticker for math, you might notice that my first draft of ten includes fifteen horses. I have some more work to do... and in all likelihood, I'll end up adding at least one who isn't even on this list yet.

Cool, I have a bunch of horses on my roster that you have listed

[QuikSand]

I think Nick Zito and Todd Pletcher have the strongest stables from where we stand right now, but nearly every year both Baffert and Lukas manage to turn one or more of theirs into contenders...so they would be sensible trainer picks as well. And then if you like a certain horse, picking his trainer to "double up" isn't an awful idea either. Several ways to go.

[Chubby]

Well like you said, to not take Zito would be kinda dumb with the # of top horses he was this year...

[Raven Hawk]

Ok,

I'm hooked. I'm a relative beginner, so I may have some questions for you. But, this sounds like fun.

It gives me more reasons to go to Arlington Park.

[Raven Hawk]

Dola,

From the rules, it would seem silly not to pick up Pletcher as a trainer as well. Since he has nominated 35 or so horses for Triple Crown, doesn't that mean that you have more chances of scoring trainer points? Just my first question of many. I see that Baffert has quite a few nominations (17) as well.

[Raven Hawk]

Ok, I've already spent too much time on this.

Here are my top 15.

Eurosilver
Action This Day
Birdstone
Lion Heart
Second of June
St Averil
Tiger Hunt
Mr Jester
Master David
Capac
Sir Oscar
Hosco
Perfect Moon
Shiloh Bound
Tapit

[QuikSand]

A tough call is whether to include HALFBRIDLED. She has looked very good, and may well run against the boys, but since the contest doesn't include any of the fillies-only prep races, I think the most sensible thing to do is to exclude her, and use her as a supplemental pick later if it looks like she is rolling toward the Derby rather than the Oaks.

[rkmsuf]

Mandella has a good deck with Minister Eric, Action This Day and maybe Spellbinder. If those develop I believe he steers the Halfbridled connections in another direction.

Yes the victory from post 14 was impressive in the BC but the figures leading up to the race were nothing special...and yes I'm bitter...

[QuikSand]

I, on the other hand, used ACTION THIS DAY as my key horse in the BC Juvenile, my biggest hit of the day. (Owing to my cowardly bet on CAJUN BEAT in the sprint) I probably should be partisan for this horse at this point, but find myself looking elsewhere.

I like what I have seen of ST AVRIL so far, and I'd like for READ THE FOOTNOTES to have some distance ability. Anyone know or read anything about the Euro breeding of the latter? If they can get Smoke Glacken's speed into the blood of a horse with some staying power, they might really have something. (I think SG might end up being a great sire for precocious brilliant colts)

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I, on the other hand, used ACTION THIS DAY as my key horse in the BC Juvenile, my biggest hit of the day. (Owing to my cowardly bet on CAJUN BEAT in the sprint) I probably should be partisan for this horse at this point, but find myself looking elsewhere.

I like what I have seen of ST AVRIL so far, and I'd like for READ THE FOOTNOTES to have some distance ability. Anyone know or read anything about the Euro breeding of the latter? If they can get Smoke Glacken's speed into the blood of a horse with some staying power, they might really have something. (I think SG might end up being a great sire for precocious brilliant colts)

Smoke Glacken was my favorite sprinter of his day...the DeFrancis Dash hasn't been the same since.

I've read snippets hinting at that very distance ability for Read the Footnotes but I can't recall the specifics. That sire and the highish dosage has to make you wonder though.

I'm going crazy trying to find a way to leave off Eurosilver but I've come to the conclusion that would be foolish. For the record I'm not a Zito bandwagon rider but as much as it pains me I can't discount him...

[rkmsuf]

dola

as far as the West I've only settled on Borrego and Master David thus far but St. Averil is interesting...

[Chubby]

Here is my roster, didn't post it earlier so I could see how I matched up with QS' picks. I haven't changed them since I posted "Entered"...

Horses:
Action This Day*
Birdstone*
Chapel Royal
Cuvee
Eurosilver*
Lion Heart*
Read The Footnotes
St Averil
Tapit
The Cliff's Edge*

(* = active at the moment)


Jockeys:
Jerry Bailey
Kent Desormeaux

Trainers:
Bob Baffert
Nick Zito

[Chubby]

dola, is there an online Racing Form? I'd feel kinda dumb if I started a horse and he wasn't even racing that weekend

[QuikSand]

Chubby, you can check it out at DRF.com

In fact, here's an article from the DRF online, covering the Sham Stakes from this weekend - where four nice contenders all ran pretty well, with MASTER DAVID finishing on top. (And I do love horses who can rally back after being passed)

hxxp://www.drf.com/news/article/53252.html

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Chubby, you can check it out at DRF.com

In fact, here's an article from the DRF online, covering the Sham Stakes from this weekend - where four nice contenders all ran pretty well, with MASTER DAVID finishing on top. (And I do love horses who can rally back after being passed)

hxxp://www.drf.com/news/article/53252.html

It was a good effort but by all accounts was a fairly moderate pace. Good race but you could definately make the case that Action This Day was compromised and short. I'm leaving off Action This Day so everyone else should take him to the bank...it's a lock now...

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Chubby, you can check it out at DRF.com

In fact, here's an article from the DRF online, covering the Sham Stakes from this weekend - where four nice contenders all ran pretty well, with MASTER DAVID finishing on top. (And I do love horses who can rally back after being passed)

hxxp://www.drf.com/news/article/53252.html

awesome, thanks! bookmarked!

[Raven Hawk]

Ok, here's what I decided to go with:

Birdstone*
Capac
Eurosilver
Hosco
Lion Heart*
Master David*
Mr Jester
Second of June*
Shiloh Bound*
St Averil

Trainers:
Zito
Mandella

Jockeys:
Shane Sellers
John Velazquez

I really fretted over Action This Day, Tiger Hunt, and Sir Oscar. I figured that I could cover the Action This Day/Halfbridled angle by taking Mandella as a trainer. I know that he only has 7 horses nominated, but 4 of them look strong.

Tapit's injury scared me away and I decided to wait until supplemental to pick him up if he showed well in Florida.

Shiloh Bound is my longshot, he's been doing well and seems to have the competitive grit that I love in a horse. His 3 consecutive wins have not been by much, but he seems to be able to do just enough to win. Hopefully he races well at Risen Star this weekend.

* = Active

[Chubby]

Yeah I read about Tapit's injury, it doesn't seem serious but you never know... I still went with him

[QuikSand]

There are some interesting horses in this year's crop who have yet to prove themselves over any distance. HOSCO is one of them, and I will be betting against, due to breeding concerns and the fact that he was just "holding on" at 6f his last two times out.

[FishFan]

From the thread I posted earlier (http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/for...ad.php?t=21117)

Right now, here's my preliminary stable:

Second of June - Cesare
Lion Heart - Biancone
Birdstone - Zito
Action This Day - Mandella
Cliff's Edge - Zito
Tapit - Dickinson (the Mad Scientist)
St. Averil - Becerra
Read The Footnotes - Violette
Master David - Frankel
Eurosilver - Zito

First few out:

Minister Eric - Mandella
Halfbridled(f) - Mandella
Spellbinder - Mandella
Hosco - O'Neill
Grand Score - Ward
Capac - Bell

Right now my trainers are Mandella and Zito; I am undecided on my jockeys.

[FishFan]

A note on Tapit. Dickinson is very, very conservative with his horses and will only run them if they are 100%. But, if he stays on the Derby trail and that horse winds up in the gate on Derby day, I will definitely put a chunk of change on him. Dickinson will only run that horse in the Derby if he really, really likes his chances.

I'll probably tweak my above list before this weekend's races, including another Mandella horse. While Pletcher is loaded with a ton of horses, I don't see one horse in his barn that can get it done. But, I still might replace Mandella with Pletcher at the trainer position.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by FishFan

A note on Tapit. Dickinson is very, very conservative with his horses and will only run them if they are 100%. But, if he stays on the Derby trail and that horse winds up in the gate on Derby day, I will definitely put a chunk of change on him. Dickinson will only run that horse in the Derby if he really, really likes his chances.

I'll probably tweak my above list before this weekend's races, including another Mandella horse. While Pletcher is loaded with a ton of horses, I don't see one horse in his barn that can get it done. But, I still might replace Mandella with Pletcher at the trainer position.

I'm very skeptical of Tapit's usefulness in this contest. No one questions Dickinson's ability to ready a horse but the 3 yo, Triple Crown scene is all new to him. Maybe the horse has ability but it's already started with the mild ailments. Throw in another prep race and who knows how conservative they get...it has to go perfect which is unlikely...

I do agree if he shows up at Churchhill it's a clear sign you'll get a top effort though...

[FishFan]

They are still pointing the horse to the G2 Louisiana Derby on Mar. 7 or the G1 Florida Derby on Mar. 13. He's just skipping the FoY or Risen Star, which won't kill you if you have other candidates in those races. If I had to pick a Derby favorite for myself right now, it would be TAPIT.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by FishFan

They are still pointing the horse to the G2 Louisiana Derby on Mar. 7 or the G1 Florida Derby on Mar. 13. He's just skipping the FoY or Risen Star, which won't kill you if you have other candidates in those races. If I had to pick a Derby favorite for myself right now, it would be TAPIT.

The 1.80 dosage is certainly encouraging. I was a big fan of Pulpit back when he ran the big figs...

[FishFan]

Quik:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/51951.html
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/tc/...ntenderID=1447

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by FishFan

Quik:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/51951.html

"As a stallion, Smoke Glacken is dominating his mares..."

I'd want them to say that about me when I was a stud...

[FishFan]

Heh.

Sellers, Solis or Smith as my second jockey to Bailey?

[rkmsuf]

I went with Bailey and Solis.

Solis because of the Frankel connection. I wanted to get away from Bailey but it's a guessing game so I went with him since he usually ends up on live mounts no matter the connections...obvious play but can't make much of a case for anything else.

I really don't like Smith and who is Sellers on right now?

[FishFan]

Sellers is on Cliff's Edge and Fire Slam.

[FishFan]

Solis is also on a Mandella horse, MINISTER ERIC, who is returning from a layoff next month.

[rkmsuf]

Those are two contenders...go with Sellers and Solis...screw Bailey...

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by FishFan

Solis is also on a Mandella horse, MINISTER ERIC, who is returning from a layoff next month.

Maybe he can improve and beat his stablemate this time...supposedly the Minister has fired a couple good works...

[FishFan]

Yes, MINISTER is the horse that will break into my top 10 and knock out someone else. SECOND OF JUNE?

[rkmsuf]

I have Second of June in there for the mere fact that many probably won't. He's a June foal named after the trainers birthday. No June foal has won the Derby at least in 25 years. I'm bucking all the trends here...

You'll like this article...it also has a blurb about Mike Gill and Tapit...

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=20171

[FishFan]

So, this horse could win the Kentucky Derby before he is literally three years old. That would be an accomplishment. I'll check out the article.