how is Maryland on the Bubble?

[Easy Mac]

They're 15-11 and 6-9 in the ACC. They need to beat Virginia to avoid playing in the play-in game. I was watching PTI last night, and Jay Bilas said Maryland was a shue in even if they lost. How? They'd be next to last in the conference. Assuming they lost to VA, won the play-in game and lost in the first round of the ACC tournament, they'd be 16-13, 6-10 in the ACC. Bilas said they would get in because they had a tough schedule, and even though they lost like 7 games agains the top 50, they played well.

Who gives a damn if they played well, they still lost. You shouldn't get credit for a lot of losing to good teams. It just shows me that they can't win big games, and they don't deserve to be in a tournament where almost all the teams are very good teams.

Am I the only person who would rather have the 2nd place Big South team in the tournament instead of the 8th team from the ACC?

[Franklinnoble]

East Coast bias.

[Samdari]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

Am I the only person who would rather have the 2nd place Big South team in the tournament instead of the 8th team from the ACC?

Probably. Maryland is unquestionably better than that team. And I hate Maryland and am actively rooting against them making the tourney.

I think if your scenario plays out, and Maryland does finish 6-10 and in 8th place, they will not make it. I think they would need to beat either Virginia or upset Duke in the first round of the ACC.

In no case do I think the ACC sends 8 teams. If Maryland loses to UVa, beats Clemson and then loses to Duke, and they get in, it will be at the expense of Florida St.

I am wholly confident, however, that the Big South second place team will not get a spot ahead of MD.

EDIT: There is precedence for these kinds of teams making it. Georgia made the tournament a few years ago at 16-14 after having played the most difficult schedule in the country.

[mgadfly]

I saw them mentioned as on the bubble in an article yesterday. I could see them getting in if they win a few more games (that'd take a good effort in the conference tourney), but right now Duke, North Carolina St., Wakeforest, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and maybe even Florida St. and Virginia are better than them in their own conference. There RPI is pretty nice, and I admire them for taking on the tough schedule, but this is a team that I don't think should make it without a couple more big wins.

[mgadfly]

I don't know about the Big South, their 2nd place team is pretty dreadful, but I'd rather see a conference like the Atlantic Sun get a second bid, than the ACC get 8 bids with a marginal top-tier team like Maryland getting in.

A lot of that is because I just think it is a lot of fun to root for a team that is a relatively unknown factor. I think Troy St., UCF, and Belmont are all good teams even though Maryland is probably better than all of them.

[Easy Mac]

Originally Posted by Samdari

Probably. Maryland is unquestionably better than that team. And I hate Maryland and am actively rooting against them making the tourney.

I think if your scenario plays out, and Maryland does finish 6-10 and in 8th place, they will not make it. I think they would need to beat either Virginia or upset Duke in the first round of the ACC.

In no case do I think the ACC sends 8 teams. If Maryland loses to UVa, beats Clemson and then loses to Duke, and they get in, it will be at the expense of Florida St.

I am wholly confident, however, that the Big South second place team will not get a spot ahead of MD.

EDIT: There is precedence for these kinds of teams making it. Georgia made the tournament a few years ago at 16-14 after having played the most difficult schedule in the country.

Sorry, didn't literally mean the Big South number 2, but a small college #2 (I think Creighton should get in but probably won't... they're in like the MWC or something).

[Butter]

I just can't believe how bad the Big-10 and Pac-10 are this year. So many mediocre teams...

[Wolfpack]

Maryland normally wouldn't even get this kind of consideration, but it's been a down year for the Big Ten and Pac 10 and a horrendous year in the mid-majors where only Gonzaga, Utah State, and perhaps a couple of others could survive a loss in the conference tournament to make the NCAA field. In short, Maryland (or FSU or Virginia, depending on whose 6, 7, or 8) may get in because the committee doesn't have enough qualified candidates to fill out the card otherwise. Hell, the eighth place team in the ACC is guaranteed to be 6-10, which shows (outside of Clemson) how much of a bloodbath it's been in conference this year. Usually, #8 is 4-12 or 5-11. The only other time #8 was 6-10 was Clemson in 1994, though the ACC only sent five that year as Tech and FSU both got bounced in the first round of the tournament, which killed their chances for the NCAAs.

Do I think 8 is likely? No. However, if the Big Ten and Pac 10 produce, say, Wisconsin and Stanford as champs and there are no surprises in the mid-major tournaments, I would not be surprised to see 8 get in if the 7 and 8 seeds get into the semis (which would entail beating Duke and Wake or NC State to do so). Granted, if whoever ends up #8 blows it against Clemson, then it won't matter anymore anyway.

[CraigSca]

I'm a Maryland fan and despite what the pundits are saying, I don't consider them a shoo-in at all. I think the committee will have a hard time picking a team that goes 6-10 in conference play no matter how good the conference is.

To be a shoo-in, they need to beat UVA at home and win an ACC Tourney game. If they lose either game, I'll be biting my fingernails next Sunday. If they lose both, I don't think they have a shot (nor do they deserve one).

-Craig

[Radii]

I saw that PTI bit too, I can't believe Bilas thinks Maryland is a lock. They're not even holding serve at home... losses at home to Georgia Tech, Duke, and Wake in the span of 9 days. You've got to be able to beat one of those three at home to get any respect from me. The win at NC State helps a lot, and people have been saying for awhile now that 7-9 in the ACC will likely be good enough to make the NCAAs, so I think they're in if they beat Virginia.

If they don't beat Virginia? They need to beat Clemson &Duke or NC State in the first round(depending on whether they end up the 7 or 8 seed), but I bet that would get them in even if they lose to UVA and finish 6-10.

According to collegerpi.com, 6 of the top 10 schedule strengths are held by ACC teams(MAryland is #4), the ACC won't get 8 teams in I am sure but they will pull some serious weight, giving Maryland a legit shot.

My prediction: Maryland beats Virginia, Ga Tech beats FSU, Virginia and FSU don't get in, ACC gets 6 teams in including Maryland.

[sooner333]

If Maryland is a lock, so is Oklahoma. Neither probably belong, but the Big Ten sucks (hey, at least Northwestern can secure 4th place in the conference with a win on Saturday), and so does the Pac Ten. That gives them hope, but they really don't deserve it. And by no means are either of them locks.

[Samdari]

I don't know about Creighton, Mac. Look at their losses. Northern Iowa, Wichita St., Drake, pounded by SMS. Losses to SIU and Kent St don't look so bad, but where are the good wins? Their best are Nebraska and Fresno St. They really needed to beat SIU or Kent.

Among mid majors, I think Gonzaga, Utah St, and SIU are in no matter what. ETSU, Manhattan, Western Michigan and Kent St. are the trouble teams. Any of them, should they not win their conference tourneys, should make the dance ahead of Maryland, but some of them probably wouldn't. Troy St and Boston U have impressive records, but they have been beating up on terrible, terrible teams. I don't see how you can argue for either team to make it. As for the second place team from any of the conferences of those teams (and they are the best of the mid-major conferences) I am not sure a Creighton (probably the best 2nd place team from a mid-major) has really shown they deserve to be in ahead of Maryland.

EDIT: Sooner333, I actually think that the Sooners are a lock, mainly due to the expected 2 team Pac-10 and 3 team Big-10 (ok, maybe Purdue gets in as the 4th). I certainly think they should be ahead of Maryland. Usually the pundits are complaining that there are not enough spots for the teams they consider 'deserving'. This year they are having trouble finding enough teams to fill the spots.

[sooner333]

I'm thinking OU has to beat Baylor, then Kansas State in round one of the Big 12, and then probably have to beat Texas in round 2 to be assured a bid. Because OU will be 7th in the conference, it will be tough to get in without getting a good win. I guess I'll root for Missouri's demise and Tech's too. Colorado needs to beat Missouri more than the other way around for an OU fan in round two of the Big 12 tourney.

[dacman]

Bilas is smoking something -- Maryland is a lock, but Purdue has no chance unless they win the Big Ten Tournament (or so he said on ESPN radio Tuesday before they lost to Illinios)???

[tucker342]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

Am I the only person who would rather have the 2nd place Big South team in the tournament instead of the 8th team from the ACC?

No, I feel the same way. A team that finishes 16-13 does not deserve to be in the Tourny. Especially when teams from mid-major conferences finish 24-4 or something but lose in their conference tournament get left out.

[mgadfly]

Originally Posted by tucker342

No, I feel the same way. A team that finishes 16-13 does not deserve to be in the Tourny. Especially when teams from mid-major conferences finish 24-4 or something but lose in their conference tournament get left out.

I agree with this, as I said above.

If you have:

Team A, Major Conference, 16-13, 40 RPI, great SOS
and
Team B, Mid-major Conference, 25-4, 70-100 RPI, weak schedule

I'd like to see the selection committee go with Team B. Team A is probably better, but we never get to find out because teams like A will never give Team B a fair shot at proving it. The only time Team A will play Team B is (1) in the tourney or (2) at home. Since we can't force major conferences to go on the road and play Boston U. or Troy St. or even Gonzaga, we should get over the RPI/SOS a little and reward those smaller schools who do well and haven't had a chance to play the bigger schools yet (by the end of the season, we've already had a chance to see Maryland play the other big schools).

This might punish major conferences a little, but as it works right now, smaller schools are punished because they always have to play the better schools on the road (which is a pretty big deal in basketball).

[Wolfpack]

Throwing some logs on the fire, here is a list of all teams from "mid-major" or "minor" conferences who have less than 10 losses (plus a few who have more, but are ahead in conference standings of those who have less). This list therefore excludes teams from the ACC, Big Ten, Pac 10, SEC, Big East, Big XII, and Conference USA.

America East: Boston U. (23-4), Vermont (19-8), Northeastern (19-10), Maine (18-9)
A-10: St. Joseph's (27-0), Dayton (21-7)
A-Sun: Troy State (22-5), UCF (23-5), Belmont (21-7), Georgia State (20-8)
Big Sky: Eastern Washington (15-12)
Big South: Birmingham Southern (19-7)
Big West: Utah State (24-2), Pacific (21-7)
CAA: VCU (20-7), Drexel (18-9), George Mason (19-8)
Horizon: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (18-9), Illinois-Chicago (22-7)
Ivy: Princeton (17-7), Brown (13-12), Penn (15-9)
MAAC: Manhattan (22-5), Niagara (19-8)
Mid-Con: Valpo (15-12)
MAC: Kent State (20-6), Western Michigan (22-4), Toledo (18-9)
MEAC: South Carolina State (16-10)
MVC: Southern Illinois (24-3), Creighton (20-7), Wichita State (20-9), Northern Iowa (18-9)
MWC: Air Force (21-5), BYU (19-7), Utah (20-8)
NEC: Monmouth (18-11)
OVC: Austin Peay (20-8), Murray State (26-5)
Patriot: Lehigh (17-10), American (16-12), Lafayette (18-9)
Southern: ETSU (25-5), Ga. Southern (21-7), Coll of Charleston (20-9)
Southland: SE Louisiana (19-7), UT-Arlington (16-11), UT-San Antonio (16-12), SFA (18-8)
SWAC: MVSU (21-6)
Sun Belt: Louisiana-Lafayette (17-8)
WCC: Gonzaga (25-2)
WAC: UTEP (22-5), Nevada (19-8), Boise State (19-8), Rice (20-9), Hawaii (20-9)

From this list, who do you take as at-large teams, aside from obvious ones like Gonzaga?

[mgadfly]

I went through the conferences as if the tourney started today and this is the breakdown I ended up with (total teams in each conference):

SEC: 7
ACC: 6
Big 12: 6
Big E.: 6
CUSA: 5
Big 10: 4
Atl 10: 3
MT W: 3
Miss. Vlly: 2
Pac 10: 2
Everyone else: 1 each, 0 independents

I was tempted to drop Alabama (16-10 with a great RPI/SOS) for Nevada (18-8 good RPI), Hawaii (18-9 okay RPI), Rice (19-9, okay RPI), Murray St. (23-5 less than okay RPI), Creighton (20-7 less than okay RPI), or DePaul (18-8, solid RPI).

It's very possible that MT. W will only get 1 bid, so that could open up two more bids for the teams above or Maryland/Rutgers.

Even though the Washington Huskies have been red-hot lately, I think it takes a win against Stanford + a good showing in the conference tourney to have a shot at an at-large bid.

Virginia is another team I left out that could be in there as well.


I'd prefer more midmajors, but I doubt we'll see it this year.

[mgadfly]

What seed do you all think Arizona deserves?

[jamesUMD]

I am extremely biased as my student loan checks practically go right to University of MD but I don't see them as a shoe in. I do feel that they are easily 1 of the best 65 teams in the country. They beat 5 top 25 teams and beat the #1 ranked team in the country twice (NC and Florida). I think that merrits their inclusion over a team that has twenty wins but didn't even play anyone rated in the top 25. You have to reap what you sow. If a team decides not to schedule any top tier opponents in their schedule then they should not get consideration as one of the top 65 teams in the country.

Just my biased opinion!

[hoopsguy]

I was just having the Arizona discussion last night, said I thought they should be maybe an 8. The guy looked at me like I was on crack, seemed to think they should/would be considerably higher, like a 5.

[mgadfly]

I think they'll get higher as well, but I charted how I thought it'd go today and gave them a #7. And then started wondering if I'm on crack.

[Marmel]

I really believe you can almost make the argument that Arizona should not make the tournament at all.

Let's say they lose in the first ournd of the PAC 10 tournament. That gives them 3 bad losses on the year: USC, Oregon State, 1st round game. That leaves them with only 1 win against the RPI top 50! Texas on a neutral court!

Their RPI is a very pedestrian 38, and their strength of schedule is 42.
They are only 7-6 vs, the RPI top 100, 1-3 agains the top 25 and a pretty sluggish 5-5 in their last ten.

If what the selection committee says is true, this is clearly a bubble team as they stand. We know they will get in the tournament, but compare them with Depaul, and it is awfully ridiculous that DePaul might not get in, yet Arizona will be a 8 seed maybe?

Hey, I am a major conference supprter and don't normally give two craps about the mid-majors. I actually really like Arizona when I have to root for other teams. They are just so borderline this year it is pathetic.

[Thomkal]

Wolfpack,

One note on your list of mid-major/minor teams, Birmingham Southern from the Big South is ineligible for post-season play because they have just moved up to Division 1-A or whatever the ruling is over that process. Not that they would get in anyway since they play in the Big South (sadly that's where my local team Coastal Carolina plays)

[SteelerFan448]

I agree that Maryland still should get a shot, but they do have to finish 7-9 in the conference. I also think they should have to win at least one in a conference tourney. But it all depends on where you are seeding a team like Maryland. If you are putting them at a 11 or better seed, I personally wouldn't mind seeing a mid-major team in there since we always see upsets in those areas. If it is worse than that, Maryland will provide better competition and could pull off an upset in comparison with a Southeastern Tennessee Tech (yes that isn't a real school, and if it is I never heard of it).

[QuikSand]

a shue in

a shoo-in

a shoe in

...would anyone else like to take a shot at this?

[Marmel]

schooen

[finkenst]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Wolfpack,

One note on your list of mid-major/minor teams, Birmingham Southern from the Big South is ineligible for post-season play because they have just moved up to Division 1-A or whatever the ruling is over that process. Not that they would get in anyway since they play in the Big South (sadly that's where my local team Coastal Carolina plays)

I suspect you meant they are ineligble for the Big South's automatic bid...

not that it matters since there's no way in hell they'll get a bid.

[Easy Mac]

Quiksand

ass fuck

assfuck

anyone else want to take a shot at this... I'm sorry your perfect you retarded ass pirate, but not everyone gives a fuck about 100% perfect grammar on a messageboard.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

Quiksand

ass fuck

assfuck

anyone else want to take a shot at this... I'm sorry your perfect you retarded ass pirate, but not everyone gives a fuck about 100% perfect grammar on a messageboard.

that would be "you're" Easy...

[CraigSca]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

...would anyone else like to take a shot at this?

I wrote "shoo in" originally - but I pick "shoe-in" in the lightning round.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by finkenst

I suspect you meant they are ineligble for the Big South's automatic bid...

not that it matters since there's no way in hell they'll get a bid.

No I mean they are ineligible for post-season play. They were not allowed to play in the Big South tournament and can not play in the NIT or March Madness.

[Samdari]

Originally Posted by jamesUMD

I do feel that they are easily 1 of the best 65 teams in the country. They beat 5 top 25 teams and beat the #1 ranked team in the country twice (NC and Florida).

There are two factual errors above:

Maryland is indeed one of the top 65 teams in the country. Unfortunately, this is irrelevant. Picking the field is not about picking the top 65 teams. It is about picking the best 34 that did not win their conferences. When you consider that about 10 of the teams that get automatic bids are among the top 34 teams, picking the field then becomes deciding who is among the top 44 teams in the country. Now, is Maryland one of those? Possibly.

NC was never ranked #1 this year. I'm not sure they were ever top 5. But, even more important than that, it really does not matter how good they were perceived when you beat them. What matters is how their RPI looks at the end of the year. They are 13 and 15. Great wins, but not considered as beating #1 teams.

[CraigSca]

Having Florida State lose to Georgia Tech yesterday increases MD's chances to make the field. A win today I think would clinch it...

[Malificent]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

Quiksand

ass fuck

assfuck

anyone else want to take a shot at this... I'm sorry your perfect you retarded ass pirate, but not everyone gives a fuck about 100% perfect grammar on a messageboard.

Wow, that was totally uncalled for.

[sooner333]

Hurting the bubble teams was SMS beating Southern Illinois, meaning one less at-large spot that will go to Southern Illinois now instead. The MVC benefits the most sending two teams instead of the one.

[finkenst]

the MVC has traditionally sent two teams to the NCAAs...

SIU and Creighton for the last couple of years.

[sooner333]

Yeah, but this year the MVC didn't have a good enough second team to get there.

[Subby]

I am still trying to figure out what a retarded ass pirate is...and how did he hack Easy Mac's account?!?!

[Noble_Platypus]

Easy Mac acted as if he had a retarded pirate up his ass.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Samdari

NC was never ranked #1 this year. I'm not sure they were ever top 5.

A quick check of espn.com later & it looks like UNC peaked at #4 in week 5 of the coaches poll.

[Samdari]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

A quick check of espn.com later & it looks like UNC peaked at #4 in week 5 of the coaches poll.

I did an even quicker check. I only looked at #1 each week.

MD looks to be in now regardless, especially by having separated themselves from UVa and FSU yesterday. Mizzou clearly placed themselves behind Maryland, Seton Hall, Boston College, possibly even Washington. I don't see them having any chance at this point.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by CraigSca

Having Florida State lose to Georgia Tech yesterday increases MD's chances to make the field. A win today I think would clinch it...

Unfortunately, I think FSU blew it, when they were most likely a "definite probability" a couple of weeks ago. No ACC wins on the road, and they've lost their last 4 games, including one in which they lead Wake Forest AT WF by 14 points with under 10 minutes to play.

Incredibly frustrating, considering they lead or were tied with under 2 minutes to go in 5 ACC games, and lost each game. And Pickett is hurt going into the tournament, so it's doubtful they will make a run.

On the plus side, we might be able to look forward to a home NIT game...

[Radii]

Maryland is in now IMO, and FSU/UVA are out unless they win Friday. A Friday win over Duke/NC State might be enough to do it for either of them, but they'd still be on the bubble... as it stands now without a Friday win I cannot see either of them getting in under any circumstances.

[Ksyrup]

I think UVa still has to play Clemson to even get a shot at Duke. FSU narrowly avoided its now-annual play-in game matchup with Clemson when UVa lost to Maryland.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I think UVa still has to play Clemson to even get a shot at Duke. FSU narrowly avoided its now-annual play-in game matchup with Clemson when UVa lost to Maryland.

Correct. That's why I said that they need a "friday" win instead of just an "ACC Tournament Win" ... for FSU, if they get 1 win in the tournament(over NC State) that may put them over the hump. For Virginia, they're going to need 2 wins, the Clemson win in the ass game Thursday, and then a win in the 1st round Friday over Duke(GL with that). Neither of these would make them a lock, IMO, but it would at least keep them up for consideration.

[kingnebwsu]

I'm all for the mid-major teams getting more respect. It seems for some of the big conference teams (aka Georgia's barely .500 team from a few years ago), all you have to do is be in a big conference and schedule teams who end up real good.

It's like an episode of the Critic where he's in a restaurant and the waiters are singing to an old guy "Happy 76th birthday to you!" and then the Critic is like, "OH SHUT UP! ALL HE DID WAS NOT DIE!!!" That's how it is with some of the big conf. teams (not necessarily MD), "SHUT UP! ALL YOU DID WAS PLAY IN A BIG CONFERENCE!!!"

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by mgadfly

Team A, Major Conference, 16-13, 40 RPI, great SOS
and
Team B, Mid-major Conference, 25-4, 70-100 RPI, weak schedule

I'd like to see the selection committee go with Team B. Team A is probably better, but we never get to find out because teams like A will never give Team B a fair shot at proving it.

Interesting setup, I think. Why even bother using a system like the RPI then? If there's that much of a difference between the two teams' schedules that the team with the far better record still is far behind in the RPI - shouldn't that count for something?

How "fair" a shot does team B deserve? They played a patsy schedule, lost several games along the way, and presumably couldn't win their conference. They had a shot, of course -- they could have won more games, or they could have won their conference. What you're lobbying for here is basically a third shot.

I recognize your general point about big conference teams not scheduling mid-majors... but reducing the importance of SOS goes counter to this. If we start penalizing the marginal big conference teams who play a tough schedule and lose a fair number of those games -- wouldn't that just undermine that cause? Small conference schools would be given the breaks based on winning percentage and would get in more frequently, so they wouldn't need to pick up tougher opponents to boost their SOS. Big conference teams would know that it's about wins and losses, so there's no reason to play the mid major foes - they'll stick to the Georgetown diet of Chaminades for their out of conference games. And there's no reason for anyone to set up the regular season game between your Team A and Team B from above - it's no longer in either team's interest to do so.

Valuing strength of schedule places the right incentives on both sides, big and small. Maybe it doesn't play out to everyone's satisfaction currently, but the answer isn't using the factor less... maybe it's the opposite.

[Ksyrup]

The other side of that argument is that teams need to belong to a conference, and it's not their fault that their conference drags them down. Good teams from lousy conferences can have a competitive out-of-conference schedule and still look bad in the RPI.

On the opposite side, you have a team like Florida State, with an RPI somewhere in the mid-40's, but whose out-of-conference schedule is awful. Pittsburgh, Florida (both losses) and a bunch of 200+ ranked teams. FSU benefited from a good ACC schedule. But of course, they also beat 5 teams ranked in the top 25, as well.

[cthomer5000]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

...would anyone else like to take a shot at this?

I hadn't read this thread until today... Isn't shoo-in the correct form? And if not... what is?