Which WR would you draft?

[Franklinnoble]

So I'm playing around with an FOF2K4 career, and I've come up a game or two shy of the playoffs the last few seasons. My QB is a stud, my RB and FB are very good, and I have two great TE's. The OL is solid. But my WR's are incredibly average, at best. I'm guessing that one stud WR could put me in the postseason, and there are two potentially good ones in the draft coming up. I have two mid-first round picks, and figure I'll have to trade up to the #1 spot to guarantee a shot at the guy I want - which is fine with me; I rarely do much with the draft in the early rounds (generally too expensive), so I don't mind trading future picks, either.

Here are the two available WRs:





So, who should I pick?

[Francis_Cole]

hutton > 'trout'

[Abe Sargent]

Use my guiding rule, in life, as well as football.

When in doubt, always select the person from West Virginia.


-Anxiety

[Hurst2112]

Avolos though I don't know how good an 88 year old wide receiver will work for your team.

[TredWel]

Hutton will end up being the better player, but you should select Avolos if you want to win now.

[MizzouRah]

Hutton - he's better at holding on to the ball. Picture this: Super Bowl, 4th qtr you're down 5 your QB drops back has Avalos open, passes him the ball.. YESSSS!!! we're going to win .......... oh no! he drops it and you lose the game.


Todd

[Axxon]

I wouldn't trade up for either of these guys. I wouldn't pay mad money for a guy with that high a volatility personally. I certainly wouldn't trade up for the privilege.

Sure they could get better but looking at them, there's the very real possibility they'll bust too.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by Hurst2112

Avolos though I don't know how good an 88 year old wide receiver will work for your team.

Yeah, I was wondering when someone would notice that... I've been doing some testing with FOF2K4 starting back in the 20's to see how realistic it is, especially from a financial standpoint (my conclusion: not very - but I've gotten to enjoy the team I'm playing with, and want to keep it going).

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by Axxon

I wouldn't trade up for either of these guys. I wouldn't pay mad money for a guy with that high a volatility personally. I certainly wouldn't trade up for the privilege.

Sure they could get better but looking at them, there's the very real possibility they'll bust too.

The volatility doesn't scare me. I know it's a crapshoot with either of them, but I figure their high Solecismic scores solidify them a bit.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I was about to say Hutton ... until I realized you would have to draft up to get him.

With those volatility ratings, I wouldn't trade up (and pay top 3 money) for either of them.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Axxon

I wouldn't trade up for either of these guys. I wouldn't pay mad money for a guy with that high a volatility personally. I certainly wouldn't trade up for the privilege.

Sure they could get better but looking at them, there's the very real possibility they'll bust too.

I don't know. The Volatility makes them more likely to approach "99" as well. Both have excellent combine scores which seems to indicate they are more likely to break out as well. I'd give the nod to Hutton as I'll trade better "Avoid Drops" for less "Kick Return" any day of the week, but Hutton is a bit riskier. I would not be surprised to see both of them turn out as studs, though.

[gstelmack]

Dola (my first one!): I'd like to see how both of these guys turn out after a season or two.

[Axxon]

It's all about potential. Their potentials are maxed. Those CAN'T go up so any volatility is going to be on the down side. That's why I wouldn't pay mad money for them.

AFAIK volatility doesn't affect current, it affects potential.

[Honolulu Blue]

Not much to choose from between these two guys. I would be inclined to pick Hutton because he figures to be a better player in the long run. But if either of these two situations apply, pick Avalos:

1) If you need to win THIS YEAR, or else the team will break apart and/or you'll get fired.
2) If you need a solid kick returner.

I don't think either of them are top-5 material (unless there is no one with higher bureau ratings), so I'd get pick #6 and take the guy that's left over.

Please keep us posted.

[Franklinnoble]

Well, I've already traded up during the free agency period to get the #1... it cost me my 2 first round picks this year, my second round pick this year, plus my first round picks next year and the year after. Ah, well.

I'll keep an eye on the progress of both guys, and see how it turns out. At this point, I think I'm gonna go ahead and take Hutton.

[Franklinnoble]

I took Hutton #1 overall... Avalos was drafted #4 overall. I'll post their post-training camp ratings next...

[Axxon]

Good luck with Hutton!

It'll be interesting to see how they develop.

[Franklinnoble]

Here's their post-camp ratings:




So, neither guy looks like a "bust" at this point. Avalos looks better now, but Hutton has a ton of potential. Hutton is going to get a lot of playtime this year. I may also invest in a "mentor" for him, just to see if I can maximize his potential.

[Eaglesfan27]

I would have taken Avalos just because he was more developed and it sounds like you are in a "win now" mode.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Axxon

It's all about potential. Their potentials are maxed.

No they aren't. One is a 70, the other is a 78. The blue bars still have plenty of room to the left of 99. And based on the training camp numbers, both do still have some room to grow.

I think volatility is misintrepreted because guys who are already highly rated don't have room to go up much, so if they do go up no one really notices.

The more drafts I'm involved with, the more convinced I am that Jim gave everything we need on the main draft list page. I've come around to pretty much ignoring volatility except in a very limited number of cases. Combine numbers and percent developed tell you a lot, and occasionally the blue bars help decide a close race (as in the kick return / dropsies discussion here).

But the Draft Analyzer portion of Extractor rates guys based on volatility for those of you that still want to use it (plug plug)...

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

I would have taken Avalos just because he was more developed and it sounds like you are in a "win now" mode.

Well, I'm in a "I'm close to the playoffs and I want to break in, but I don't want just a quick fix" mode.

My QB should have another 5-6 good years left. My RB is good for 3-4 more. So I don't need an immediate fix, and if I'm going to spend what I had to on a solution, I wanted the best long-term prospect.

I finished 11-5 and won the division, so, mission accomplished (so far). Statistically, Avalos had a much better season.

Hutton started all 16 games at SE. He had 38 catches for 552 yards (14.5 avg), 5 TD's, 5 dropped passes.

Avalos started 13 games at SE. He had 48 catches for 865 yards, and led the league with an 18.0 average per catch. He had 5 TD's and 7 dropped passes.

[Fritz]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

Statistically, Avalos had a much better season.

What were their opportunites and targeted %? Out of the gat it looks like Avalos would have a great chace of getting looks, but this something that may change in a season or two.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by Fritz

What were their opportunites and targeted %? Out of the gat it looks like Avalos would have a great chace of getting looks, but this something that may change in a season or two.

I assume you mean "Targ" and "TPct"?

For Hutton, it was 70 and 16.5%

For Avalos, it was 89 and 20.6%

[Franklinnoble]

Dola.... I don't know squat about game planning and such... it definately seems like my offense runs a lot more than it passes. Any suggestions on how to effectively make the offense more pass-heavy?

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

Dola.... I don't know squat about game planning and such... it definately seems like my offense runs a lot more than it passes. Any suggestions on how to effectively make the offense more pass-heavy?

Decrease the "run percentages" on all the offensive gameplanning screens. Note that the in-game coach still has a tendency to go with what is working. I have a balanced attack but still managed to run 54 times in one game because the other team could not stop my RB.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Decrease the "run percentages" on all the offensive gameplanning screens. Note that the in-game coach still has a tendency to go with what is working. I have a balanced attack but still managed to run 54 times in one game because the other team could not stop my RB.

I might give that a shot here after my RB retires... he's on-pace to be the all-time leader, and I want to let him have a shot.

[Fritz]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

Dola.... I don't know squat about game planning and such... it definately seems like my offense runs a lot more than it passes. Any suggestions on how to effectively make the offense more pass-heavy?

pass more on first down. that will do it.

[albionmoonlight]

And make sure that your global settings don't have your staff changing your game plans before each game.

[T-Storm]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

And make sure that your global settings don't have your staff changing your game plans before each game.

Although that might not matter much:
http://dynamic2.gamespy.com/~fof/forums/showthread.php?t=26163

[Franklinnoble]

Ok... Here's the results for each receiver after their first four seasons. My RB just retired, so I'll be switching to a more pass-happy offense next season.




I'm not disappointed in Hutton, even though his stats aren't as gaudy. We've made the playoffs three of the last four years he's been on the team (lost all three times in the conf. semis), and he hasn't enjoyed the benefit of a heavy passing attack. We'll see if changing the game plan a bit improves his stats.

[cthomer5000]

Plainfield, NJ. That guy might live across the street from me.

[Franklinnoble]

Well, after shifting to a more pass-oriented offense, here are the results for Hutton (I've posted Avalos' results for the last season as well):





Suddenly, Hutton looks like a much better receiver. And it's not that he has a better QB - Green Bay's starting QB is actually rated higher than mine.

[gstelmack]

And Avalos definitely has dropsies problems.

[dixieflatline]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

Suddenly, Hutton looks like a much better receiver. And it's not that he has a better QB - Green Bay's starting QB is actually rated higher than mine.

Certainly Hutton had a better year but I am not sure I would rush to judgements right away. Both receivers were right around 60% for catch/target and there isn't a huge edge for hutton in average ypc especailly when you consider how many more yards he got from YAC. I think though that YAC is a very improtant stat for WR's so it's a very good sign that hutton has made real improvements in that area. You had said that hutton's ceiling might be a bit higher before the draft and that might be what you are seeing now. I'd like to see him do it another year though before saying for sure that hutton is a much better reciever though.

[cthomer5000]

Pretty even. Has either WR been a real factor in the return game?

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by dixieflatline

Certainly Hutton had a better year but I am not sure I would rush to judgements right away. Both receivers were right around 60% for catch/target and there isn't a huge edge for hutton in average ypc especailly when you consider how many more yards he got from YAC. I think though that YAC is a very improtant stat for WR's so it's a very good sign that hutton has made real improvements in that area. You had said that hutton's ceiling might be a bit higher before the draft and that might be what you are seeing now. I'd like to see him do it another year though before saying for sure that hutton is a much better reciever though.

Agreed... I'll post more results later.

Oh, and I'll check out their KR/PR results too, if you like.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by cthomer5000

Pretty even. Has either WR been a real factor in the return game?

Yes, they both seem like they turned out okay. As other people suggested earlier, maybe this was a case where going all the way to #1 was not warranted. You could have gone to #2 a bit cheaper and been happy with either one. If both were still there, trade back down until one gets picked.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Yes, they both seem like they turned out okay. As other people suggested earlier, maybe this was a case where going all the way to #1 was not warranted. You could have gone to #2 a bit cheaper and been happy with either one. If both were still there, trade back down until one gets picked.

Maybe. Either way, I'm happy with what I got. Since I turned up my passing offense, Hutton has certainly earned his salary. I've fallen short of the Super Bowl since drafting him, but I blame that more on the deficiencies I have on defense.

My stud QB just retired, so this might be my final update on this little project (unless I get lucky and find a replacement in the offseason). Here are both guys after 7 seasons:

[Goose]

Interestingly I had a chance to draft Ike Hutton as well although his volatility was very low. I passed on him and he was drafted relatively high then went back into the draft. Drafted #12 and then I ended up trading for him. My Ike turned out to be a decent WR too.