Assess my Round 2 Chances

[squirrel201]

I am the underdog next week against a fairly inactive DV owner (his last 5 logins date back to April)

UMBC Squirrels - California Cosmos

Looking through his latest match ratings, my 4-4-2 (3 IM) attack ratings beat his 5-3-2 (2 IM) ratings, and our midfields are roughly equal, mine possibly pulling a low wretched against his very low wretched. However he is a D trainer and pulls solid and low excellent defensive ratings. The only thing is, one of his starting wingbacks had only half a star, so I'm thinking maybe I can attack that side and sneak out a win. I don't imagine his crummy offense getting more than a goal on my defense.

What do you think my chances are for squeaking out the upset (MOTS or otherwise)? I'm currently starting a passable/solid and a passable/weak forward. Should I spend $100k on a solid scorer with decent passing? I'm not sure my current attack is enough to muster any goals on him, even with the .5 star wingback.

Thanks for any advice!

[hhiipp]

I would not MOTS unless you are not concerned about how high you place within your series this season.

What I would do is you -know- what formation he's going to run and you know the weak point in his defense is the right side. I would try to stack up on your left side and exploit this, put your best offensive winger on this side, assuming you have one.

Do you have any experience in a more offensive formation than a 4-4-2? His attacks are lacking pretty badly so I wouldn't think 4 defenders is necessary for you.

Interested to hear what some of the other managers would try.

[squirrel201]

I have inadequate experience in 3-5-2 and could bump it up to excellent with my league game. Poor in 3-4-3, should I try that Sunday? As you can probably tell I'm not terribly concerned with my series opener, my best middie got himself redcarded out of it. All my series mates are inactive, so one loss shouldnt hurt me too bad.

[Raven Hawk]

What do you train?

I'd probably recommend that you get yourself some more experience with the 3-5-2, then run it against him.

[squirrel201]

Not really training anything at the moment. Just started near the end of last season, did a few weeks passing training, now stamina/set pieces. I'm going to switch to keeper training once my future coach pops up to passable experience (any day now).

[streacer]

From the VERY brief look I took I don't think you can expect to beat him normally.

Assuming you don't have 4-5-1 or 5-4-1 learned, I would go 4-4-2 with as much defense/midfield as you can gather, shoot for 0-0, and hope that your PK lineup is stronger than his. If he's inactive he might not even have one set, so depending how good your players are you could actually have an advantage there (your keeper looks better than his, but again I only glanced.)

I have no idea what kind of players you have to work with... you probably don't have 3 IMs, a WTM, and 2 defensive forwards... but you might be able to work in an extra PK specialist or something instead of fielding a standard lineup.

I've out-defended defensive teams before, when I lack the offensive punch to beat them normally.



I should be clear though that this is just my opinion. It's similar to what I've done before with some success, I usually run defensive if I think I'm the underdog. But I know my team and what it can do a hell of a lot better than I know yours.

[squirrel201]

Actually I am inadequate at the 4-5-1 also. That sounds like an interesting idea, I'm gonna look more into it now, thanks!

any other suggestions from the masses?

[Qwikshot]

Even if you do beat him, then what position are you going to be in the following week...cups are nice income but its all about training...don't jeopardize your training to get a win, and don't jeopardize your league position to get a win...

[nickfox45]

i like this idea of pumping up your defense and midfield, since its already been established you wont be able to score on his defense, and then beat him in penalty kicks. plus, that would just be a sweet way to win a cup game. if you MOTS'ed your could easily PIC for a few weeks in a row since your division is full of brand new teams.

would PIC this sunday and the following sunday give you more of a TS boost if you MOTS'ed your cup than only doing it the following sunday? im not sure about this, but im sure someone else knows.

[DataKing]

A PIC will raise your team spirit by one level, while a MOTS will cut your team spirit in half. So the answer to your questions is, most likely, no.