OT - Fantasy Football - value of #1 overall pick?

QuikSand · 09-01-2004, 01:14 PM

I have a fantasy draft tomorrow night, and a new player in the league drew the #1 overall pick. I drew the #9 spot in the league of 12 teams (snake draft - I'll have picks #9 and 16). So... the guy at #1 overall makes a global offer, looking to trade down from his top spot.

What would you say is fair compensation (it's a pretty standard "performance-based" league counting both TDs and yards, with standard 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/1DF rosters but no kickers) for this trade? I'd be swapping 1(9) for 1(1), and he gets something in return.

How much would you give up to make this move? How much would you demand to make the move down?

Franklinnoble · 09-01-2004, 01:20 PM

What is he asking for in return? Later draft picks, I assume?

You're actually picking in a pretty good slot... you'll get two decent players. He'll get one great one, but won't pick again until #24... so he'll probably want to swap first and second rounders. If I were him, I'd ask to swap first, second, and fourth round picks.

VPI97 · 09-01-2004, 01:22 PM

If I were the guy, it would take a lot for me to move down to #9 due to the drop off after the first few players. The number of 'elite' players is what? four or five?

I'd have to get at least a free third rounder to make the move. Picks 1 & 24 for 9, 16, 33. But even that would be too steep if I were the guy with #9.

rkmsuf · 09-01-2004, 01:23 PM

It comes down to Holmes/Tomlinson and what's left at 9. Look at who you are faced with there...likely Moss is there and probably a back like Jamal Lewis or something.

Personally I wouldn't go crazy to move up. You could fiddle around with swapping picks later on or something but I wouldn't give up any pick itself higher than the 6th or 7th round. I'm guessing the #1 guy will severly overvalue his spot and ask for like a 3rd or something...no way I'd do that.

VPI97 · 09-01-2004, 01:24 PM

dola - I'm surprised there isn't a fantasy football pick value chart out there like the one for the NFL draft.

rkmsuf · 09-01-2004, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VPI97

dola - I'm surprised there isn't a fantasy football pick value chart out there like the one for the NFL draft.

they exist...you can plug in a trade and it says who's getting the better deal. I forget where I saw it...

I had 11 this year in a 12 team league. Backs went 1-10 so I took Moss and came back with Culpepper. At that point every back on the board was the same guy.

Radii · 09-01-2004, 01:28 PM

If I had the was going to drop from #1 to #9 i'd probably try to get the 3rd round pick in exchange for the 6th round pick.

The guy moving up to #1 now gets Tomlinson/Holmes and gives up depth, while the guy dropping to #9 probably doesn't get a single guarenteed successful RB but can take 2 RBs with his first two picks.

There are so many RB by committees this year + so many shaky starters who are injury prone or not guarenteed to start for the entire season, or are brand new starters(Fred Taylor/Bennett|Onterio Smith/Chris Brown) that I think this brings up an interesting question in general... the top pick gives you the one sure thing, would you rather have that and a crapshoot behind it since you don't pick again til #24, or two guarenteed starters at #9/#16?

QuikSand · 09-01-2004, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

What is he asking for in return? Later draft picks, I assume?

It's a non-keeper league... all we have are draft picks.

Essentially, his offer was to swap in the first round with someone, and he'd give his last round draft pick in exchange for a fifth rounder. For me, that means giving up the pick at 5(9) or #57 overall.

I jumped on this, and now hold the #1 pick. I'm liking it a lot... have never seen anyone so easy to budge out of a top spot, really.

Radii · 09-01-2004, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Essentially, his offer was to swap in the first round with someone, and he'd give his last round draft pick in exchange for a fifth rounder. For me, that means giving up the pick at 5(9) or #57 overall.

I jumped on this, and now hold the #1 pick. I'm liking it a lot... have never seen anyone so easy to budge out of a top spot, really.

Uh yeah. Congrats on the fleecing. Holmes or Tomlinson?

rkmsuf · 09-01-2004, 01:32 PM

5th is right on the edge of consideration but sitting out 24 picks in the meat of the draft is going to stink.

QuikSand · 09-01-2004, 01:32 PM

I have no idea.

JAG · 09-01-2004, 01:33 PM

Great trade for you hands down. You might sweat the middle rounds some, but the top of your order will be colossal.

VPI97 · 09-01-2004, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I jumped on this, and now hold the #1 pick. I'm liking it a lot... have never seen anyone so easy to budge out of a top spot, really.

He didn't even get to swap second rounders?

Is this league for money? Is it too late for me to get in?

Franklinnoble · 09-01-2004, 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand

It's a non-keeper league... all we have are draft picks.

Essentially, his offer was to swap in the first round with someone, and he'd give his last round draft pick in exchange for a fifth rounder. For me, that means giving up the pick at 5(9) or #57 overall.

I jumped on this, and now hold the #1 pick. I'm liking it a lot... have never seen anyone so easy to budge out of a top spot, really.

Do you now have to register as a sex offender after raping that guy like that?

Maple Leafs · 09-01-2004, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VPI97

dola - I'm surprised there isn't a fantasy football pick value chart out there like the one for the NFL draft.

There is a pick value calculator on footballguys.com, although I believe it's now in the subscriber's area.

According to that calculator, which of course is based on generic pick value and not tailored to individual leagues or situations, these would be roughly fair value deals involving 1.1 and 1.9:

Team 1 trades 1.1, 4.12 and 5.1
-for-
Team 2 trades 1.9, 2.4 and either 5.9 (slight edge to team 1) or 6.4 (slight edge to team 2)

Team 1 trades 1.1 and 8.12
-fpr-
Team 2 trades 1.9 and 4.4 (slight edge to team 1)

Team 1 trades 1.1, 2.12 and 4.12
-for-
Team 2 trades 1.9, 2.4 and 3.9 (slight edge to team 2)

Team 1 trades 1.1 and 6.12
-for-
Team 2 trades 1.9 and 3.9 (slight edge to team 1)

Given that this year, there are really only six or seven dominant first-round choices, I would probably be willing to make any of the above deals in Quik's situation. Even if I'm giving the other guy a slight edge based on the math, my real-world read of the situation says it's worth it to overpay.

rkmsuf · 09-01-2004, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

There is a pick value calculator on footballguys.com, although I believe it's now in the subscriber's area.

According to that calculator, which of course is based on generic pick value and not tailored to individual leagues or situations, these would be roughly fair value deals involving 1.1 and 1.9:

Team 1 trades 1.1, 4.12 and 5.1
-for-
Team 2 trades 1.9, 2.4 and either 5.9 (slight edge to team 1) or 6.4 (slight edge to team 2)

Team 1 trades 1.1 and 8.12
-fpr-
Team 2 trades 1.9 and 4.4 (slight edge to team 1)

Team 1 trades 1.1, 2.12 and 4.12
-for-
Team 2 trades 1.9, 2.4 and 3.9 (slight edge to team 2)

Team 1 trades 1.1 and 6.12
-for-
Team 2 trades 1.9 and 3.9 (slight edge to team 1)

Given that this year, there are really only six or seven dominant first-round choices, I would probably be willing to make any of the above deals in Quik's situation. Even if I'm giving the other guy a slight edge based on the math, my real-world read of the situation says it's worth it to overpay.

Look at it this way...the guy at #2 gets Holmes or Tomlinson and you at #1 had to give up a fairly early pick. I think the move is debatable but you will look like a genius if you take Holmes and he's Holmes again.

QuikSand · 09-01-2004, 01:42 PM

I really am not all that worried about losing a 5th round pick in this deal.

After it's all over... would I trade Edgerrin James and Eric Moulds to get Ladainian Tomlinson and a late-round sleeper of my picking? You bet I would.

QuikSand · 09-01-2004, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

Look at it this way...the guy at #2 gets Holmes or Tomlinson and you at #1 had to give up a fairly early pick.

And the guy at #2 waits until #23 to pick again -- I get to go at #16. I've got a very nice chance to snag Tomlinson/Holmes and come back in round two to make the best RB tandem in the league by a nice margin.

rkmsuf · 09-01-2004, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand

And the guy at #2 waits until #23 to pick again -- I get to go at #16. I've got a very nice chance to snag Tomlinson/Holmes and come back in round two to make the best RB tandem in the league by a nice margin.

good point...forgot the swap mechanics.

I don't know why but Tomlinson makes me nervous...really bad team and all even though the team was bad last year.

All I know is everytime I looked at that ticker last year it said Holmes 3TD (5,3,2) or Holmes 3 TD(12,1,1).

QuikSand · 09-01-2004, 01:47 PM

By the way, I wouldn't make this trade to move up from #5 to #1... but this year, it certainly seems like there's a cliff after the top two, and then another cliff after Green, McAllister, and perhaps Portis and Alexander. I think Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, and Randy Moss are the most likely ames I'd be looking at for pick #9... and I don't like any of them all that much more than I like the next six guys on my list. I like Holmes/Tomlinson a *lot* more than I like any of those third-tier guys.

Huckleberry · 09-01-2004, 02:09 PM

When is it reasonable to start worrying about Holmes' age and historical knee troubles?

rkmsuf · 09-01-2004, 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Huckleberry

When is it reasonable to start worrying about Holmes' age and historical knee troubles?

After he breaks down

actually he's a young back in terms of carries. He sat for quite a while.

Maple Leafs · 09-01-2004, 04:14 PM

And there lies the question: what determines when a RB breaks down, the age or the carries?

If you're wondering, many people much smarter than I have been digging into the statistics to try to figure that out. So far, there doesn't seem to be a conclusive answer. It's certainly not a clearcut case of "well, he was a backup for a long time so he'll be fine". One thing history has taught us: it's very likely that when Holmes hits the wall, whenever that is, he will hit it very hard and almost without warning.

If I was picking #1 overall, I'd go with the safer Tomlinson. If I was picking #2 and Tomlinson was gone, I'd bite the bullet and go with Holmes over the rest of the top backs.

09-01-2004, 01:22 PM	#3
VPI97 Hokie, Hokie, Hokie, Hi Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: Kennesaw, GA	If I were the guy, it would take a lot for me to move down to #9 due to the drop off after the first few players. The number of 'elite' players is what? four or five? I'd have to get at least a free third rounder to make the move. Picks 1 & 24 for 9, 16, 33. But even that would be too steep if I were the guy with #9. __________________ CT & Jivin - "Surprisingly Entertaining"

09-01-2004, 01:23 PM	#4
rkmsuf Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2001	It comes down to Holmes/Tomlinson and what's left at 9. Look at who you are faced with there...likely Moss is there and probably a back like Jamal Lewis or something. Personally I wouldn't go crazy to move up. You could fiddle around with swapping picks later on or something but I wouldn't give up any pick itself higher than the 6th or 7th round. I'm guessing the #1 guy will severly overvalue his spot and ask for like a 3rd or something...no way I'd do that. __________________ "Don't you have homes?" -- Judge Smales

09-01-2004, 01:28 PM	#7
Radii Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	If I had the was going to drop from #1 to #9 i'd probably try to get the 3rd round pick in exchange for the 6th round pick. The guy moving up to #1 now gets Tomlinson/Holmes and gives up depth, while the guy dropping to #9 probably doesn't get a single guarenteed successful RB but can take 2 RBs with his first two picks. There are so many RB by committees this year + so many shaky starters who are injury prone or not guarenteed to start for the entire season, or are brand new starters(Fred Taylor/Bennett\|Onterio Smith/Chris Brown) that I think this brings up an interesting question in general... the top pick gives you the one sure thing, would you rather have that and a crapshoot behind it since you don't pick again til #24, or two guarenteed starters at #9/#16? Last edited by Radii : 09-01-2004 at 01:30 PM.

09-01-2004, 01:32 PM	#10
rkmsuf Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2001	5th is right on the edge of consideration but sitting out 24 picks in the meat of the draft is going to stink. __________________ "Don't you have homes?" -- Judge Smales

09-01-2004, 02:09 PM	#21
Huckleberry College Starter Join Date: Dec 2001	When is it reasonable to start worrying about Holmes' age and historical knee troubles? __________________ The one thing all your failed relationships have in common is you. The Barking Carnival (Longhorn-centered sports blog) College Football Adjusted Stats and Ratings

09-01-2004, 01:20 PM	#2
Franklinnoble Banned Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Placerville, CA	What is he asking for in return? Later draft picks, I assume? You're actually picking in a pretty good slot... you'll get two decent players. He'll get one great one, but won't pick again until #24... so he'll probably want to swap first and second rounders. If I were him, I'd ask to swap first, second, and fourth round picks.

09-01-2004, 01:24 PM	#5
VPI97 Hokie, Hokie, Hokie, Hi Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: Kennesaw, GA	dola - I'm surprised there isn't a fantasy football pick value chart out there like the one for the NFL draft. __________________ CT & Jivin - "Surprisingly Entertaining"

09-01-2004, 01:32 PM	#11
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	I have no idea.

09-01-2004, 01:33 PM	#12
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Great trade for you hands down. You might sweat the middle rounds some, but the top of your order will be colossal.

09-01-2004, 01:42 PM	#17
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	I really am not all that worried about losing a 5th round pick in this deal. After it's all over... would I trade Edgerrin James and Eric Moulds to get Ladainian Tomlinson and a late-round sleeper of my picking? You bet I would.

09-01-2004, 01:47 PM	#20
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	By the way, I wouldn't make this trade to move up from #5 to #1... but this year, it certainly seems like there's a cliff after the top two, and then another cliff after Green, McAllister, and perhaps Portis and Alexander. I think Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, and Randy Moss are the most likely ames I'd be looking at for pick #9... and I don't like any of them all that much more than I like the next six guys on my list. I like Holmes/Tomlinson a lot more than I like any of those third-tier guys.

09-01-2004, 04:14 PM	#23
Maple Leafs Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2002	And there lies the question: what determines when a RB breaks down, the age or the carries? If you're wondering, many people much smarter than I have been digging into the statistics to try to figure that out. So far, there doesn't seem to be a conclusive answer. It's certainly not a clearcut case of "well, he was a backup for a long time so he'll be fine". One thing history has taught us: it's very likely that when Holmes hits the wall, whenever that is, he will hit it very hard and almost without warning. If I was picking #1 overall, I'd go with the safer Tomlinson. If I was picking #2 and Tomlinson was gone, I'd bite the bullet and go with Holmes over the rest of the top backs. __________________ Down Goes Brown: Toronto Maple Leafs Humor and Analysis

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