Probablity Football Week #4 Results

[Radii]

http://probabilityfootball.com/group...ekly&weeknum=8

Lower scores this week across the board.

Weekly Results

Congrats to SirFozzie for putting up the best score of the week in the group, 28th overall, with a mere 343.56 points. Fozzie got big gains from Indy(75%), the Pats(86%), and Philly(90%), in addition to the Jets(74%) and St Louis(80%). He missed only 5 games, all of them small ones. He only put 60% on the Packers to beat the Giants, a great move.

2nd on the week is kcchief19's 269 points. He had Green Bay at 65%, hurting him just a bit more than Foz. He did get 80% on the Pats, 100% on the Eagles, 100% on the jets, and 100% on St Louis. 3 100% picks, all of them coming through. Good job on that chief, that's dangerous but great when it pays off! Tennessee hurt him bad, 70/30 for a -96. kcchief went 8-4 on the week, not picking a couple of games.

3rd on the week is FrogMan, always near the top, he's the one that found this game for all of us last year, and he's very good at it, 263 points here, just 6 behind kcchief.. He took no chances this week, 70% on the jets, and 70% on the eagles, everything else less than that. He got both his 70% games right and went 10-4 on the week, carrying him to the good result.

SaintAnselm topped 200 also with 216, and timmyw3 is back near the top with 198.


I finished 8th overall with 127.36 points(1.08 more than Fonzie). I didn't pick many huge huge winners, getting a 95% pick right with the Pats, a 96% pick with the Eagles, and two 75% picks in Pitt and Indy. a 70% loss in green bay hurt, and I picked a lot of the road favorites at 65%, I missed Houston beating Oakland, Carolina lost, and the Cards, all 65% games the wrong way. Throw in the Titans and I bled away a lot of points.

As always, a mention to oliegirl, finishing 10th, just 2 behind me with 111. A 90% pick on Green Bay held her back, she had a shot at first with a different outcome there. Picking only 11 games, she went 8-3.

7 entrants posted negative scores, most notably our previous leader, varacel with -204. 80% on Oakland, and 100% on New Orleans will do it(damn that Emmitt Smith).

TheOutlawTorn got killed. -751, oof. 75% on green bay. 75% on the panthers(sorry, man, I wish too...). Another 100% on the Saints, and 100% on the titans over the chargers. Tonight just piled it on, 100% on the Ravens.


Overall we had 23 entries.



This week is the first week of October, so the monthly and weekly totals are the same.


Yearly Totals


There are 2128 people in probability football. I think, given that, it's a pretty cool thing to say that FOFC has 8 of the top 100.

OVERALL STANDINGS:

1. timmyw3 - 959 (23rd overall)
2. SirFozzie - 947 (25th overall)
3. Frogman - 901 (32nd overall)
4. varacel - 827 (51st overall)
5. TazFTW - 796 (63rd overall)
6. SaintAnselm 776 (70th overall)
7. VPI97 - 767 (78th overall)
8. radii - 709 (100th overall)

9. oliegirl - 540
10. TredWel - 529
11. Solecism - 510
12. jveen - 474
13. Fonzie - 469
14. Kevinnu7 - 468
15. knsmith85 - 441
16. Jeeberd - 397
17. smcindoe - 383 * defending champ
18. MrPerfect - 367
19. Ramzavail - 329
20. Suicane - 259
21. Routerhelp - 209
22. kcchief - 81
23. kingfc22 - 9.24
(4 listed at 0, never played)
28. mauboy: -17
29. Troll: -38
30. Samdari: -140
31. TLK: -176
32: TroyF: -235
33. MrWednesday: -302
34: TheOutlawTorn: -433
35. laser: -500
36. wademoore: -524
37. bbor: -795


Lets get everyone to enter this week! Thanks to everyone for continued participation

[kingfc22]

At least I'm not in the red.

[JeeberD]

Still in the middle of the pack, taking my couple hundred points per week. Sooner or later those folks ahead of me should fail and I will soon rise up the ranking!

Mwuahahahahaha!!!!

[kcchief19]

I'm still trying to get a feel for the best strategy -- I had a couple of bad weeks until this week's big bounce. Glad to be back in the black.

[SirFozzie]

I use the weekly line to set a kinda baseline.. I try not to go more then 65% or so unless they're a touchdown favorite. 1 100% loss will kill you (-300 Points), you better be 100% sure of that.. Also, it helps to watch the scouting reports..

[Radii]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

I use the weekly line to set a kinda baseline.. I try not to go more then 65% or so unless they're a touchdown favorite. 1 100% loss will kill you (-300 Points), you better be 100% sure of that.. Also, it helps to watch the scouting reports..

That's a pretty good idea.

I'm certainly trying to play it safe this year, I have gotten to where I am usually making 4 75% or higher picks, you see a game like New England-Arizona and how do you not make it 90+ for example.

Even 65% hurts if you don't get a majority of them right. I always pick every game but I wonder if I shouldn't start leaving a few tossups at 50/50, even at 55%, a loss hurts more than a win helps, you need to get more than half of them right.

My #1 goal is to not have a single week with a negative score. That leads me to bea lot more conservative. I hope to have 1 or 2 breakout weeks where I pick almost every game correctly, but as long as I don't bomb out, I expect to finish in the top 10 in our group and to hopefully stay within striking distance.

[SirFozzie]

Basically, it's risk management. You need about 3-4 100% wins to balance a 100% loss.. so for it to be a positive play (one that will provide a chance to give you enough points to contend), you need to believe that if they played 16 games, one team would be 14-2, 13-3, the other team 3-13, 2-14). That's rare.

You mentioned the Green Bay game. That was a 60% game purely on homefield (which turned out not to help.) I didn't think the Packers were really THAT good to make them a huge % favorite against a very opportunistic defense (7 turnovers against Wash)

[Ramzavail]

I could have sworn I put in my picks, but I won't complain I put 100% on New Orleans and Green Bay.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

You mentioned the Green Bay game. That was a 60% game purely on homefield (which turned out not to help.) I didn't think the Packers were really THAT good to make them a huge % favorite against a very opportunistic defense (7 turnovers against Wash)

I am quite late coming around on the fact that the Giants aren't total ass, and that the Packers are falling fast.

[timmyw3]

We're #1, we're #1!!!!! (for now). In every and all contests like this I start out like a house of fire before I start overthinking all the matchups and tanking down the stretch. I'm putting a 2-minute limit on myself to make all the picks from here on. That way I don't get plagued by the dreaded paralysis-by-analysis syndrome.