Carlos Beltran

[Ksyrup]

This is all about Boras, IMO. Contracts are trending downward, so the only way for him to make a splash is for an insane number of years, which will make the total compensation package look huge. Rather than show off a 3 year, $50M deal, he can flash a 10 year, $130M deal (or whatever the parameters would be). After the Hampton/Giambi/ARod/Manny (and don't forget the awful deal the Tigers offered Juan Gone that he rejected) foolishness, I can't see even the Yankees caving in on a 10 year deal.




HOUSTON -- Houston Astros free agent center fielder Carlos Beltran is seeking a 10-year contract, his agent told a television station on Thursday.

"All of the fundamental aspects about the desire of him to stay in Houston and to look at Houston as a serious contender for his services I think are there," Scott Boras said in an interview with KRIV.

Boras said Beltran is also interested in a couple of other teams, but he did not name them. He declined to discuss salary figures.

"He is going to just go through the process, talk to those teams, and we are going to evaluate the ability of the club to have a winning environment every year, and certainly the economics of it."

Astros owner Drayton McLane told the station that the team will not receive the financial parameters from Boras until next week and won't respond until then.

Beltran hit .435 in the postseason with a league record-tying eight homers, 14 RBI and 21 runs scored in 12 games. He came to the Astros in a midseason trade from Kansas City, and has few ties to the Houston area.

Only a handful of teams will be able to afford the 27-year-old All-Star's soaring price tag -- the New York Yankees likely chief among his suitors. The Chicago Cubs were also said to be interested.

[tucker rocky]

I hope the Phillies will take interest in this, he would be a nice fit for a team with high expectations.

Plus a position that needs to be upgraded.

[Ksyrup]

I'd have rather given Rolen the deal they originally offered him (too late), than give it to Beltran. But we are where we are now. 10 years is insane, though.

[rkmsuf]

I don't see how he even comes close to 10 years, 200 million. It's a very small market.

[Ksyrup]

Where are you getting the $200M from? I threw out $130M, but that was just a number.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Where are you getting the $200M from? I threw out $130M, but that was just a number.

It was reported he wanted 10 years, 200 Million total - 20 mil a season on the radio this morning.

He's ordering a Manny +6 years from the menu.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Where are you getting the $200M from? I threw out $130M, but that was just a number.

Beltran will get closer to $200m than $130m. Id say he is worth at least 16-18 a season, based on the fact that hes entering his prime, is a stud 5 tool type of guy. At 27 he should theoretically still be getting better.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Does the name Ken Griffey, Jr. ring a bell to anyone?

Anybody, and I mean anybody, who hands out a 10 year contract in MLB (and probably any other sport) should be committed to a mental institution. Permanently.

[tucker rocky]

5 years is more reasonable.
Lifetime contract, I don't think so.

[tucker rocky]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Does the name Ken Griffey, Jr. ring a bell to anyone?

Anybody, and I mean anybody, who hands out a 10 year contract in MLB (and probably any other sport) should be committed to a mental institution. Permanently.

Yeah, ever since Griffey left Seattle, never the player he once WAS.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by tucker rocky

5 years is more reasonable.
Lifetime contract, I don't think so.

I too, am a phils fan and desperately want Carlos to come to philly, but theres no way in hell he will only want 5 years. He has earned at least 7.

[tucker rocky]

Still to early to judge the A-Rod deal (lifetime contract), did well for the Rangers and Seattle though.

[tucker rocky]

Originally Posted by stevew

I too, am a phils fan and desperately want Carlos to come to philly, but theres no way in hell he will only want 5 years. He has earned at least 7.

Maybe the Phillies can pull a rabbit out-of-the-hat trick, a make an offer.
This could be the missing piece of the puzzle that could put the team over.

Phillies were looked upon as the favorite last season, but injuries killed them, and Bowa was blamed, even though he had winning record.

A new coach was needed though, a change might do the team good.

Getting off topic a bit, don't mean to thread-jack.

[tucker rocky]

7 years, with options for 3 more.
Can the Phils do it?

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by tucker rocky

5 years is more reasonable.
Lifetime contract, I don't think so.

Something along the lines of what Pujols/Rolen got is reasonable to me. I think those were for 7 years. And a hell of a lot less than $20M a year. Beltran is not worth that much more than Rolen, I'm sorry.

[primelord]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Something along the lines of what Pujols/Rolen got is reasonable to me. I think those were for 7 years. And a hell of a lot less than $20M a year. Beltran is not worth that much more than Rolen, I'm sorry.

Well Rolen's deal was a decent amount less than Pujols'. Pujols is averaging about $14 million a year while Rolen is averaging about 11 million a year.

[JeeberD]

Come on Astros, bring Carlos back! Of course, there's no way in hell I want them to give him a 10 year contract. Six, sure. Seven, possibly. Any more than that is crazy...

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by primelord

Well Rolen's deal was a decent amount less than Pujols'. Pujols is averaging about $14 million a year while Rolen is averaging about 11 million a year.

And there's no way Beltran is worth that much more than even Pujols, let alone Rolen.

[albionmoonlight]

I'm waiting for Quik to show up and make his standard obervation about the foolishness of guaranteed contracts in sports. An observation with which I agree.

[primelord]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

And there's no way Beltran is worth that much more than even Pujols, let alone Rolen.

Did you mean to say he is not worth that much more than even Rolen, let alone Pujols? Maybe I am reading the statement wrong. It seems like you are suggesting Rolen is more valubale than Pujols.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

And there's no way Beltran is worth that much more than even Pujols, let alone Rolen.

But both of those guys took hometown discounts as well. This is an apples vs oranges situation. Beltran will be worth at least VladG money, and on top of that he plays a premium outfield position well, and doesnt have the back injury concerns(not that I think Vlad is damaged goods by any means).

[primelord]

Originally Posted by stevew

But both of those guys took hometown discounts as well. This is an apples vs oranges situation. Beltran will be worth at least VladG money, and on top of that he plays a premium outfield position well, and doesnt have the back injury concerns(not that I think Vlad is damaged goods by any means).

Actually neither one of those guys took home town discounts. What Rolen got was about what everyone thought he would get on the open market and Pujols average salary is quite a bit above what his arbitration number would have been.

[John Galt]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I'm waiting for Quik to show up and make his standard obervation about the foolishness of guaranteed contracts in sports. An observation with which I agree.

The effect of eliminating guaranteed contracts in baseball would probably be that Beltran would demand (and get) a 10 year $300 million contract. Eliminating the certainty will increase the short term cost to teams. And, in the end, I'm not sure it will make that much of a difference.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I'm waiting for Quik to show up and make his standard obervation about the foolishness of guaranteed contracts in sports. An observation with which I agree.

Guaranteed contracts are a scourge on professional sports.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by primelord

Actually neither one of those guys took home town discounts. What Rolen got was about what everyone thought he would get on the open market and Pujols average salary is quite a bit above what his arbitration number would have been.

Rolen was offered substantially more by the Phils before the trade than what he ended up signing for. Puljos may be above his arb #, but at 14 million a season, considering age, he is a steal, and would have commanded more than that on the market.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by John Galt

The effect of eliminating guaranteed contracts in baseball would probably be that Beltran would demand (and get) a 10 year $300 million contract. Eliminating the certainty will increase the short term cost to teams. And, in the end, I'm not sure it will make that much of a difference.

I agree. But at least there would be more honesty in the contract system altogether. You would get rid of the "dead contract" that pervades every single sport except football.

Sure, if the contract were not guaranteed, the player would be asking for more nominal money. Fine. So what? Does the dollar value of the contract, as stated in a dimwitted news story, really matter?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by John Galt

The effect of eliminating guaranteed contracts in baseball would probably be that Beltran would demand (and get) a 10 year $300 million contract. Eliminating the certainty will increase the short term cost to teams. And, in the end, I'm not sure it will make that much of a difference.

It's a difference of opinion. I think that the signing bonus/non guaranteed contract balance (with a salary cap) is the best system. It keeps the best players in the league for as long as they can play and no longer.

The downside is that people like Jonathan Sullivan (haven't heard of him? That's probably not what the Saints expected when they made him the #6 overall pick in the draft a couple of years ago) can get huge bonuses based on potential while veterans can get squeezed out.

I still like it best, though.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by stevew

But both of those guys took hometown discounts as well. This is an apples vs oranges situation. Beltran will be worth at least VladG money, and on top of that he plays a premium outfield position well, and doesnt have the back injury concerns(not that I think Vlad is damaged goods by any means).

Not only did they not take hometown discounts, but Vlad is "only" making $14M a year, for 5 years. And Pujols is making about the same per year, for 7 years. So how does Beltran top that by another $5M or so per year, and want an additional 3-5 years on top of what Pujols/Vlad got? The more years (the more security), the less per year, is how it works. And at some point - I think 7 years appears to be the outside parameter these days - the years won't increase.

Beltran will likely sign a 7 year deal. He shouldn't get more than $115M, tops (IMO), but will likely hold out for a contract better than Pujols, if only for Boras' sake.

[Crapshoot]

Beltran's career OPS+ coming into this season - 105. He's an amazing base stealer (possibly one of the best all time- best SB% in history ) , and plays good defense- but he is nowhere near Vlad offensively. A very, very good player- not a great one, at least until he provides another season or two like this one.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

The downside is that people like Jonathan Sullivan (haven't heard of him? That's probably not what the Saints expected when they made him the #6 overall pick in the draft a couple of years ago) can get huge bonuses based on potential while veterans can get squeezed out.

True enough -- but that's really a function of implementation, rather than the system.

If you have a system that allows mostly non-guaranteed contracts, but still allows the top players to demand guaranteed money, and allows mutual negotiation for performance-based incentives -- then you have all the workings of a good, balanced system. Perhaps reasonable people might disagree over how much of an unproven (but higly regarded) player's salary ought to be guaranteed -- but that's a worthy debate only once you get past the notion that non-guaranteed money must at least be a real option.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Aadik

Beltran's career OPS+ coming into this season - 105. He's an amazing base stealer (possibly one of the best all time- best SB% in history ) , and plays good defense- but he is nowhere near Vlad offensively. A very, very good player- not a great one, at least until he provides another season or two like this one.

Agreed. If he becomes an automatic 40 HR guy, watch out. Until this year, he wasn't close to that.

[WSUCougar]

On paper I agree with the comments about Beltran's relative value, but don't forget the PR value of his playoff performance on the national stage. If ever a guy demonstrated a "contract drive" at the right time, it was Beltran. The guy went from a highly-desirable 5-tool player to the perception that he's a 21st century Willie Mays overnight. Cha-ching.

It skews his value, much like when kids see toys put through their paces on TV commercials. Sure, the Big Whomper Remote Controlled Monster Truck sounds good on paper, but when you see it romping around in backyard ditches and running over your brother's Star Wars action figures it looks DAMN COOL ON TV.

[primelord]

Originally Posted by stevew

Rolen was offered substantially more by the Phils before the trade than what he ended up signing for. Puljos may be above his arb #, but at 14 million a season, considering age, he is a steal, and would have commanded more than that on the market.

While Rolen was offered more in Philly no one thought he would get anywhere near that $140 million dollar offer on the open market. Again everyone expected he would get in the 10-11 million a year range just like he did in St. Louis.

Pujols was still two years away from being an unrestricted free agent. He might have demanded more on the open market at the point, but for a player who is still arbitrration eligible to get roughly the same amount as Vlad got two years before the team has to pay him that is not an example of a player taking a home town discount.

Pujols even went out of his way to announce in the off-season he would not give the Cards a discount and wanted what was fair market price for him. The Arod and Manny deals are ridiculous. I would say the deal he got is fair market price for him.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Agreed. If he becomes an automatic 40 HR guy, watch out. Until this year, he wasn't close to that.

I didn't realize Beltran almost had a 40-40 season this year... why has no one talked about it? Or have I missed it?

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by primelord

Pujols even went out of his way to announce in the off-season he would not give the Cards a discount and wanted what was fair market price for him. The Arod and Manny deals are ridiculous. I would say the deal he got is fair market price for him.

Yep. You can't look at those contracts as "fair market" anymore. Pedro made almost $18M this year; I doubt he'll make more than $14M this year, and will be lucky to get 4 year (which is suicide from the team's perspective, IMO). The Sox are willing to pay $10-12M for 2-3 years, I think I read.

Of course, all it takes is one offer, but even if the Yanks come in and give him what he wants, that doesn't mean it's "market value." That's "Yankee value." The rest of the market is unwilling to go that high anymore.

[primelord]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

I didn't realize Beltran almost had a 40-40 season this year... why has no one talked about it? Or have I missed it?

My guess would be that since it has been done a few times now and there have been quite a few times that players have been close that 40-40 just isn't as impressive as it once was.

[Ksyrup]

That, and the fact that SBs aren't as important as they used to be.

[John Galt]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I agree. But at least there would be more honesty in the contract system altogether. You would get rid of the "dead contract" that pervades every single sport except football.

Sure, if the contract were not guaranteed, the player would be asking for more nominal money. Fine. So what? Does the dollar value of the contract, as stated in a dimwitted news story, really matter?

No. However, I'm not sure eliminating guaranteed contracts really accomplishes anything (although I'm not sure I understand the objectives). Here is an example.

Player A - All-star paid 7 years at $100 million total. He gets injured after 1 year and is lost for the length of his contract. The contract was undoubtably insured, so the team probably recovers part of the value after 1st year. There loss is probably around $10 million versus a non-guaranteed system (accounting for the year played, the insurance coverage, and the inflated value of the contract in a non-guaranteed system).

Player B - All-star paid 7 years at $100 million total. He gets injured after 1 year, but plays for the full length of the contract at a lesser value. As a result, the team cannot collect insurance. He is probably worth $20 million total after the first year. There is a probably around a $67 million loss versus a non-guaranteed system (accounting for year played, the insurance coverage, and the inflated value of the contract in a non-guaranteed system).

Player C - All-star paid 7 years at $100 million total. He plays slightly above the value of the contract, but doesn't have enough leverage to renegotiate a new one. The team probably gains $10 million of value over a non-guaranteed system. However, in a non-guaranteed system, the player may have received a contract of 7 years at $170 million. The non-guaranteed system overpays the player and the team loses more money.

How many players fit under A, B, and C matter (and D, E, F, etc.). I'm not sure I know the answer, but I think more research needs to be done before a conclusion is reached.

There are also very different effects of guaranteed versus non-guaranteed contracts in a salary cap league. In baseball, with no cap, it is unclear how teams would allocate their resources or how often they would cut contracts in a non-guaranteed system. Assuming they would spend roughly the same amount of money, I'm not sure if the replacement/opportunity cost of replacing cut players works well. I'd have to think more on this, but baseball is usually not a very thick market - if players are receiving hight upfront contracts to compensate for their non-guaranteed nature, I think you end up with many more A-Rod type contracts. The end results of that, I'm not sure about, but I'm not sure it is good for baseball.

[MikeVic]

I still go crazy over a 40-40 season.

[Bomber]

This guy is so fucking overrated. He's merely a good, not great hitter and he's a great centerfield, he isn't worth $20 million. He's not even that young, at 27 this is his prime and its not worth $20 million or 10 years. At this point I'd rather the Yankees go for the Andruw Jones - Kevin Brown deal.

[Bomber]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

That, and the fact that SBs aren't as important as they used to be.

Tell that to Dave Roberts and Tom Gordon.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Bomber

Tell that to Dave Roberts and Tom Gordon.

What matters more about Beltran's SB ability is the percentage, not number. At his rate, he should be stealing more. The guy has a phenomenal SB%. That's what makes him valuable as SB guy.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Bomber

This guy is so fucking overrated. He's merely a good, not great hitter and he's a great centerfield, he isn't worth $20 million. He's not even that young, at 27 this is his prime and its not worth $20 million or 10 years. At this point I'd rather the Yankees go for the Andruw Jones - Kevin Brown deal.

now this is inane. upon Further inspection, Beltran ended up 10th amongst all players in Win Shares last year, and has reliable been top 5-10 in SlinearWeights. It appears I might be wrong, and he is an elite player. That being said, he's certainly one of the top 15 players in baseball- the debate is whether he's top 5 /top10 and so forth..

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

What matters more about Beltran's SB ability is the percentage, not number. At his rate, he should be stealing more. The guy has a phenomenal SB%. That's what makes him valuable as SB guy.

bingo - his 89% rate ( I may be off on this) is the best in history for people with at least a 100 steals...

[Bomber]

BA/OBP/SLG

.267/.367/.548
vs.
.262/.360/.435

I don't think those numbers are worth 20 million a year.

[JeeberD]

Once he got to Houston he wasn't caught stealing a single time. Something like 28 for 28...

[Bomber]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

Once he got to Houston he wasn't caught stealing a single time. Something like 28 for 28...

And he hit .258 even though he played in a hitters' park.

[DeToxRox]

the Tigers need to show severe intrest in Beltran. A big four of Beltran/Guillen/Pudge/Da Meathook and then adding a pitcher like Ortiz or Pavano (and yes I am dreaming on Beltran, but one of the pitchers is possible) would make us legit AL Central contenders.

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by Bomber

And he hit .258 even though he played in a hitters' park.

Because he was swinging for the fences. He hit 23 homers in 90 games.

Also, his average during the playoffs was much better than during the regular season...

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Bomber

And he hit .258 even though he played in a hitters' park.

The guy's been a better for-average hitter than that. He's proven he can hit .300 with mid-20's HR power; I think the drop in average is because he's found 40 HR power. Once he harnesses that and gets back to hitting (not just swinging for the fences in every situation), I think he could/should be a .300 hitting, 40HR guy. But that remains to be seen.