Predicting Movies

[Pyser]

I thought it would be fun...to me...and probably few else....to try and predict what the #1 movie will be in America every week. I'll post what movie I think will make the most money from Friday to Sunday (in the event of 5 day releases, I'll still probably on predict Fri-Sun, but we'll cross that bridge later). I'll also post how much money I think it will make.

Why? I don't know. Just to see how close a non-industry guy is to projecting anything correctly.

[Pyser]

Opening February 4th:

Boogeyman
The Wedding Date



I expect the Wedding Date to not do well. It looks bad, even by chick-click romantic standards. So it boils down to Boogeyman vs. last week's champ, Hide and Seek.

Hide and Seek made $22-mil last weekend. Not too big...and it doesn't seem like the kind of movie that has staying power, or good word of mouth. So I'll go with the new scary movie this week.

prediction to open #1:
Boogeyman - $19-mil.

[Pyser]

Weekend Box Office Estimates (U.S.)
Feb 4 - 6 weekend View Last Week's Actuals
This
Wk Last
Wk Title Dist. Weekend
Gross Cumulative
Gross Rlse
Wks # of
Theaters
1 - Boogeyman SONY $19,500,000 $19,500,000 1 3052


that didn't line up right, but it says that Boogeyman was the top movie this weekend, at $19.5mil. i guessed $19mil. pretty damn close. a good start!

[Pyser]

opening this week:

• Hitch
• Bride and Prejudice (limited)
• Inside Deep Throat (limited)


pretty easy prediction, here. with nothing opening against it, combined with the utter lack of any decent comedies in over a month, hitch will sweep up easily (even though "inside deep throat" is EXCELLENT).

I'll take Hitch as #1, coming in at $33-mil.

[Karlifornia]

Valentine's day weekend. Romantic comedy. Will Smith. Hmm...40 million for Hitch

[Pyser]

yeah, im pretty sure i low-balled this one.

if valentines day was fri or sat, it would probably hit 50 mil.

[Pyser]

Weekend Box Office Estimates (U.S.)
Feb 11 - 13 weekend 	
ThisWk 	LastWk 	Title 	Dist. 	Weekend Gross 	Cumulative Gross Wks # of Theaters
1 	- 	Hitch 	SONY 	$45,300,000 	$45,300,000 	1 	3575

ive got to learn how to format this stuff. but that says hitch came in first, making $45.3-mil. I guessed $33. Not too good.

[Pyser]

Opening February 18, 2005
• Because of Winn-Dixie
• Constantine
• Son of the Mask

This is the first tough one to predict. Constantine gets the early vote from me, but you cant (amazingly) rule out Son of the Mask. Kids movies generally do very well. Add in a very possible strong second week from Hitch, and we've got quite the 3-headed race.

I'm holding off, but my early gut instinct says Constantine at $29-mil.

[Pyser]

weird. i thought about my prediction this morning, and came here to post it...only to find its exactly what i already put up as my early guess.

Constantine: $29mil.

[oykib]

Try {code}{/code} tags. Replace the { with [.

[Pyser]

Originally Posted by oykib

Try {code}{/code} tags. Replace the { with [.

excellent. thank you!

[oykib]

Dou Itashimashite.

I'm really glad I stumbled onto this dynasty. It's both different and interesting.

[Pyser]

Weekend Box Office Estimates (U.S.)
Feb 18 - 20 weekend 	
ThisWk 	LastWk 	Title 	     Dist. 	Weekend Gross 	Cumulative Gross Wks # of Theaters
1 	1 	Hitch  	Col 	      $31,800,000 	$90,115,000 	2  	3575
2 	- 	Constantine 	WB          $30,525,000 	$30,525,000 	1 	3006

grr. cant get it to line up.

but woah! very bittersweet. i was within 1.5m on constantine on a very tough week to call. however, hitch came in #1 overall, so i was flat our wrong. didnt think it could hold up to the 2 kids movies plus constantine. i am very surprised. damn it.

[Pyser]

February 25, 2005
• Cursed
• Look at Me (limited)


Yikes. VERY tough week. Hitch continues to impress. Constantine we can expect to drop. And now Cursed, yet another horror movie. They are really cranking these out, arent they? Wonder how many are gonna come out in October.

My early reaction is to, unbelievably, go with Cursed. These horror puppies are a safe bet to bring in around $20-mil every opening weekend. I expect Constantine to drop to the $10-$15m range...but Hitch, I don't know. Hasn't everyone seen it by now? Then again, what other comedy would you go see if you havent? Does Hitch have enough legs to crack $20m to take number one again? I'll give you my guess later this week...

[oykib]

If you want to line it up, type up the part that goes in the 'code' tags up in Notepad first. Then, cut-and-paste that into your post. Be careful with 'TAB'. It moves you about five spaces. So if you've got a long title like Constatine, you've got to 'TAB' twice.

[Blade6119]

what about the comedy with tommy lee jones..isnt that coming our friday?

[Pyser]

according to yahoo movies, no...perhaps i should find a better site. lets go with imbd.

movies being released today:

* Horem pádem
* Man of the House
* Cursed
* Diary of a Mad Black Woman


Which still doesnt make this easier for me (not because of 'man of the house', mind you).

I'm sticking with Hitch, at about $18-mil. It's entirely possible that Cursed will edge it out, but I just can't go with a movie they re-shot at least THREE TIMES. If people go to see this one, it's their own fault.

[Pyser]

Weekend Box Office Estimates (U.S.)
Feb 18 - 20 weekend 	
ThisWk 	LastWk 	Title 	     Dist. 	Weekend Gross 	Cumulative Gross Wks # of Theaters
1 	- 	Diary of a Mad Black Woman 	LGF	$22,700,000 	$22,700,000 	1 	1483
2 	1 	Hitch 	Columbia Pictures 	$21,000,000 	$122,008,000 	3 	3571

HOLY CRAP!!

ok, i totally didnt see that coming. at all. didnt think Diary of a Mad Black Woman would come close to topping $10-mil. Wow.

Hitch made $3-mil more than i thought. incredible staying power. And Cursed didnt top $10-mil, which is good. It also means I was incredibly wrong this week. This is turning out to be much tougher than I originally thought.

[MikeVic]

Just letting you know I'm reading this also.

[Pyser]

alright, a supporter!


this weeks movies:

* Be Cool
* The Pacifier
* The Jacket
* Dear Frankie


Despite the bad word of mouth, this week should easily belong to Be Cool. My early guy says $32-mil. I can't imagine it being good, but the people love sequels, and the people still love Travolta. Plus, everyone who has ever walked on 2 feet is in this movie, too (which you know is bad).

[Karlifornia]

Be Cool would be the logical favorite, but be mighty wary of the Pacifier. Vin Diesel, believe it or not, is still a name (especially to women), and kids movies usually have a guaranteed chunk there. Therefore, I will predict the upset and say...

The Pacifier: 25 Mill

[JeeberD]

If you can consider my girlfriend as a typical woman who likes Vin Diesel, this movie is going to flop.

"What the hell is he doing?!?!?!"

[mhass]

There are posters for that movie ALL OVER downtown Chicago. Panic anyone?

[Pyser]

I think the Pacifier will do well. $15-mil or so. Maybe even more. If Be Cool wasn't opening the same weekend, it would probably come in first, overall. Then again, who knows, maybe Diary of a Mad Black Woman will have strong legs.

But my guess is Be Cool, $34-mil. Only because it's a sequel.

[ntndeacon]

I kinda think Diary of a Mad Black Woman will have legs. This flick is selling out in many theatres.

[Pyser]

This is starting to get embarassing:

#1 - The Pacifier - $30.2-mil
#2 - Be Cool - $23.5

So I wasn't even close. This is proving to be harder than I thought.

[Pyser]

opening this week:

* In My Country (Ltd.)
* Robots
* The Passion of the Christ
* Hostage
* The Upside of Anger
* Millions


The gut says Robots bigtime, but the guts been way off lately.

[Karlifornia]

Yeah..I'm gonna have to agree with Robots, although I think Hostage will actually make some money. Has America always had such horrific taste in movies?

Robots $53 mill

[Pyser]

I'll go with Robots, $45-mil.

the real question, how well the passion do this time around? id guess its good for at least another 10m.

[Pyser]

okay, little late this week. overshot with robots, it only made $36 mil.

opening this week:

* Ice Princess
* Melinda and Melinda
* The Ring Two
* Steamboy


Easily Ring 2 here. I'll go big: $44m. That'd be very high for a scary movie, but the sequel thing helps.

[Pyser]

this is where my lack of movie knowledge hurts me. turns out, the grudge (!!!!) has the highest horror movie opening weekend ever, at only 38m. so picking the ring 2 to make 44m was kind of dumb.

in any event, it made $35m, not bad.


opening this week:

* Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous
* Guess Who
* D.E.B.S.
* Oldboy

should be an easy win for miss con2. will post my predictions later.

[Pyser]

Totally blind guess (the total, not movie):

I'll go with Miss Congeniality 2 with $26m.

[Pyser]

GRRR. i suck at this. my thinking on sequels needs to be reworked.

anyway, guess who came in at #1 making $21m. Miss Con made $14.5m. Damn. That's a big win for Ashton, who usually sucks at the box office.

[larrymcg421]

Guess Who simply had a broader demographic appeal than Miss Congeniality 2.

[Pyser]

Opening this week:

Sin City
Beauty Shop

OK. The R-rated Sin City is a lock. I have no idea what the highest grossing R rated opening is, but this should challenge it. I'm pretty sure it was one of the Matrix sequels. Non sequels, i have no idea, but I'm going huge on this one.

Sin City: $62m

[sachmo71]

Sin City - 28 mil.

[rjolley]

What was Be Cool a sequel of? ( nevermind, found it on imdb. Get Shorty was my guess...)

Interesting dynasty, by the way...

[Bee]

Originally Posted by Pyser

anyway, guess who came in at #1 making $21m

I give up, who?

[TazFTW]

Originally Posted by Pyser

Opening this week:

Sin City
Beauty Shop

OK. The R-rated Sin City is a lock. I have no idea what the highest grossing R rated opening is, but this should challenge it. I'm pretty sure it was one of the Matrix sequels. Non sequels, i have no idea, but I'm going huge on this one.

Sin City: $62m

Matrix Reloaded made $91 mil in its opening weekend. The Passion of the Christ made $83 mil in it's opening weekend, the highest for an R-rated non-sequel.

[Pyser]

wow! look at all those posts by people who arent me! rock!

sin city wont touch $83-mil, i dont think.

and sachmo - $28m for sin city? one of us is gonna be WAY off. based on how ive been doing so far, its probably me.

but this movie has the most buzz ive seen in a long time, not counting lotr, harry potter, or comic book superhero movies (superman, x-men, etc).

[sachmo71]

Originally Posted by Pyser

wow! look at all those posts by people who arent me! rock!

sin city wont touch $83-mil, i dont think.

and sachmo - $28m for sin city? one of us is gonna be WAY off. based on how ive been doing so far, its probably me.

but this movie has the most buzz ive seen in a long time, not counting lotr, harry potter, or comic book superhero movies (superman, x-men, etc).

I agree it has a lot of buzz, but I think people might be put off by the cinematography. For comic book fans, it's excellent. For my wife, it's going to be 2 hours of hell. I think they make that clear in the commercials, and so the masses will stay away. I hope I'm wrong. It's nice to see geekdom in the mainstream.

[TazFTW]

I'll take a guess, I'd say $35 million for Sin City.

It has the R rating, it is going against the Final Four, and Opening Day. I'm also not sure if it'll beat Beauty Shop, with the weekend being sports heavy, a movie that targets women could make some cash.

[Karlifornia]

Yeah....I'm with Taz on this one...Sin City...uhhh...$39 mill

[larrymcg421]

Wow. Sachmo was dead on. Good job.

[Pyser]

i seriously, seriously, seriously suck at this. well done, sachmo.

[Pyser]

Opening this week:

* Gong fu
* Fever Pitch
* Sahara


the question is, did everyone who really wanted to see Sin City go? As was pointed out in this thread, the ncaa tourny and baseball could have kept people away....as well as a monsoon in the ny area.

my early gut says fever pitch. sahara is another action movie, i think it will lose viewers to sin city...but i dont know yet. i often dont know after the fact, either, though

[TazFTW]

Not that it will matter but Gong Fu aka Kung Fu Hustle is only being released in NY and LA this Friday, it'll open nationwide on the 22nd or 29th.

I think Sahara will be the winner at probably $25 mil.

I don't think Fever Pitch will win because it needs people that think Jimmy Fallon is funny and people that don't hate the Red Sox.

[Pyser]

the women gotta see something. and the men just saw sahara when it was called 'national treasure'.

fever pitch: 23m.

[TazFTW]

Not looking good for Fever Pitch. (not looking good for my $25 mil Sahara prediction either)

Rank*	Title (Click to view chart)	Friday 4/8 (Estimates)	Saturday 4/9	Sunday 4/10	Monday 4/11
1	SAHARA 3,154	$6,200,000 -- / $1,966 $6,200,000 / 1	N/A	N/A	N/A
2	SIN CITY 3,230	$4,540,000 160.2% / $1,406 $41,148,000 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
3	FEVER PITCH 3,267	$4,400,000 -- / $1,347 $4,400,000 / 1	N/A	N/A	N/A

[Pyser]

thats cool. whered you find it?