McGwire might not be first ballot HOFer

[HomerJSimpson]

McGwire may face rejection at first

By GUY CURTRIGHT
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 03/27/05

Mesa, Ariz. -- The Hall of Fame will have an impressive class in 2007, even if voters reject slugger Mark McGwire over concerns about just what helped him build up all that muscle. Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn are also eligible for the first time that year.

Although a lot can change in two years, the likely rejection of McGwire seems to be more than just a first-ballot protest against steroid use when voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America cast votes.

Said ESPN's Peter Gammons, who will go into the writers' wing of the Hall of Fame this year: "I think McGwire will eventually get in, but I think it will take four or five years." With the information he has now, Gammons said that he would vote for McGwire.

Meanwhile, Gammons thinks Bonds is a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame, despite the steroid allegations. "He was a Hall of Fame player before he became a monster slugger," Gammons said.

An Associated Press poll of 155 voters last week revealed that only 55.6 percent said they would list McGwire on a ballot. That is well short of the needed 75 percent. McGwire, however, would receive 80.8 percent of their votes.

I don't have real problem with this. He'll get in eventually, whereas Bonds walks in because he earned it long before his suspected doping days.

[Arles]

I guess I wouldn't have a problem with this if there was a precedent for withholding "magic number" HoFers from making it a few years for cheating/drug use. This just seems extremely hypocritical as many of these press guys voted for other guys that have cheated or use drugs during their career.

[Logan]

An Associated Press poll of 155 voters last week revealed that only 55.6 percent said they would list McGwire on a ballot. That is well short of the needed 75 percent. McGwire, however, would receive 80.8 percent of their votes.

I'm guessing the second McGwire listing should be Bonds?

[bosshogg23]

I will be SHOCKED if when the time comes Big Mac doesnt recieve entry on the 1st ballot. Alot of stuff is said now, but a couple years from now the feelings die down.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by bosshogg23

I will be SHOCKED if when the time comes Big Mac doesnt recieve entry on the 1st ballot. Alot of stuff is said now, but a couple years from now the feelings die down.

Yeah, I think this is more to send a message to other players. In 2-3 years, things will tone down and Mac will get in.

[clintl]

Let's say McGwire used steroids, and it boosted his HR production by 10%. Take that away from him, and he's Willie McCovey. Or 20%. Take 20% away from him, and he's Willie Stargell. I really don't see a case for not electing him.

[bosshogg23]

I never liked McGwire. Really wish he woulda been done after he batted .210 or whatever it was. Regardless he is a HOFer. Its just not possible to retain any validity and keep him out.

[weinstein7]

Was McGwire really a first-ballot HOFer before the steroid stuff anyway? I'm not so sure...

[stevew]

Looking at Marks stats, you could make a guess that if used steroids, he likely started juicing in 94/95, after the 2 straight 9 homerun seasons. Due to their ability to help recovery, he hits a tremendous amount of dingers over the next 6 years. Then promptly falls apart due to steroids ruining his legs. Its not implausible. He wasn't a hall of famer before the homerun surge, but Bonds likely was.

[stevew]

Dola, and I think only a 10-20% penalty on his homeruns is not enough. He could have possibly never gotten over the injuries if not for roids.

[HomerJSimpson]

Originally Posted by Arles

I guess I wouldn't have a problem with this if there was a precedent for withholding "magic number" HoFers from making it a few years for cheating/drug use. This just seems extremely hypocritical as many of these press guys voted for other guys that have cheated or use drugs during their career.

I don't see withholding. How about the fact he is the least favorable of the three big names up, and he has baggage the others don't. Other people with questionable backgrounds have had to wait (Gaylord Perry comes to mind. Some people are still mad he is in).

[stevew]

 Year Ag Tm  Lg  G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  SB CS  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   TB   SH  SF IBB HBP GDP 
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
 1986 22 OAK AL  18   53   10   10   1  0   3    9   0  1   4  18  .189  .259  .377   20   0   0   0   1   0
 1987 23 OAK AL 151  557   97  161  28  4  49  118   1  1  71 131  .289  .370  .618  344   0   8   8   5   6
 1988 24 OAK AL 155  550   87  143  22  1  32   99   0  0  76 117  .260  .352  .478  263   1   4   4   4  15
 1989 25 OAK AL 143  490   74  113  17  0  33   95   1  1  83  94  .231  .339  .467  229   0  11   5   3  23
 1990 26 OAK AL 156  523   87  123  16  0  39  108   2  1 110 116  .235  .370  .489  256   1   9   9   7  13
 1991 27 OAK AL 154  483   62   97  22  0  22   75   2  1  93 116  .201  .330  .383  185   1   5   3   3  13
 1992 28 OAK AL 139  467   87  125  22  0  42  104   0  1  90 105  .268  .385  .585  273   0   9  12   5  10
 1993 29 OAK AL  27   84   16   28   6  0   9   24   0  1  21  19  .333  .467  .726   61   0   1   5   1   0
 1994 30 OAK AL  47  135   26   34   3  0   9   25   0  0  37  40  .252  .413  .474   64   0   0   3   0   3
 1995 31 OAK AL 104  317   75   87  13  0  39   90   1  1  88  77  .274  .441  .685  217   0   6   5  11   9
 1996 32 OAK AL 130  423  104  132  21  0  52  113   0  0 116 112  .312  .467  .730  309   0   1  16   8  14
 1997 33 OAK AL 105  366   48  104  24  0  34   81   1  0  58  98  .284  .383  .628  230   0   5   8   4   9
         STL NL  51  174   38   44   3  0  24   42   2  0  43  61  .253  .411  .684  119   0   2   8   5   0
         TOT    156  540   86  148  27  0  58  123   3  0 101 159  .274  .393  .646  349   0   7  16   9   9
 1998 34 STL NL 155  509  130  152  21  0  70  147   1  0 162 155  .299  .470  .752  383   0   4  28   6   8
 1999 35 STL NL 153  521  118  145  21  1  65  147   0  0 133 141  .278  .424  .697  363   0   5  21   2  12
 2000 36 STL NL  89  236   60   72   8  0  32   73   1  0  76  78  .305  .483  .746  176   0   2  12   7   5
 2001 37 STL NL  97  299   48   56   4  0  29   64   0  0  56 118  .187  .316  .492  147   0   6   3   3   7
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
 16 Seasons         6187      1626      6     1414      8    1596  .263  .394  .588        3  78 150  75 147

Stats for reference sake.

[bosshogg23]

take 25% from bonds and he is a HOF'er
its not close for him

25% from mcgwire and u have an argument
anything less and he is in

[clintl]

Originally Posted by HomerJSimpson

(Gaylord Perry comes to mind. Some people are still mad he is in).

They shouldn't be. Gaylord Perry was one of the more entertaining players of his time, and his craftiness in not ever getting caught was actually admired by many at the time. I don't remember a lot grumbling about his election when it actually occurred. It's all been revisionist grumbling.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by stevew

Dola, and I think only a 10-20% penalty on his homeruns is not enough. He could have possibly never gotten over the injuries if not for roids.

Have steroids ever been shown to be that much of a panacea for what ails you? I've heard it allowing players more strength and quicker recovery time, but I can't think of any steroid case where steroids "healed" someone. I think this is getting a little silly.

[NAIWF]

I don't see how McGwire is a Hall of Famer with or without the steroid speculation. A .263 career hitter with just 30 more hits than strikeouts shouldn't get in at all IMHO. I just don't see how a one tool player deserves enshrinement in Cooperstown.

[Arles]

From 87 to 92, he averaged 36.2 HRs per season. Given his back injuries were never even close to career threatening, assuming he wouldn't have been able to go back to that level after his two seasons rehabbing the back seems not very plausible. And, history has shown most power hitters improve into their late 20s and early 30s.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by NAIWF

I don't see how McGwire is a Hall of Famer with or without the steroid speculation. A .263 career hitter with just 30 more hits than strikeouts shouldn't get in at all IMHO. I just don't see how a one tool player deserves enshrinement in Cooperstown.

I would say a career OPS of .982 doesn't hurt.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Arles

Have steroids ever been shown to be that much of a panacea for what ails you? I've heard it allowing players more strength and quicker recovery time, but I can't think of any steroid case where steroids "healed" someone. I think this is getting a little silly.

Quicker recovery time allowing you to strengthen areas which have been weak causing injury cannot be overlooked.

[clintl]

Originally Posted by NAIWF

I don't see how McGwire is a Hall of Famer with or without the steroid speculation. A .263 career hitter with just 30 more hits than strikeouts shouldn't get in at all IMHO. I just don't see how a one tool player deserves enshrinement in Cooperstown.

He was far from being a one-tool player. He had a great career OBP in addition to his slugging, and he was a good defensive first baseman. And as for his batting average - it was better than both Harmon Killebrew's (.256) and Reggie Jackson's (.262). And Jackson actually had more strikeouts than hits.

Harmon Killebrew
Reggie Jackson

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by NAIWF

I don't see how McGwire is a Hall of Famer with or without the steroid speculation. A .263 career hitter with just 30 more hits than strikeouts shouldn't get in at all IMHO. I just don't see how a one tool player deserves enshrinement in Cooperstown.

Batting average is overrated. Look at the OBP, which is pretty high.