How many undefeated teams will there be?

[GrantDawg]

I noticed in another thread someone suggesting that there could possibly be no undefeated college football teams at the end of the year (pre-bowls, of course), and it got me thinking. I know that every team that is undefeated right now have some serious flaws, and all but maybe one (which one I’ll point out later) looks completely “beatable.” I can’t help but think, though, that there is a much greater chance this year of 4 teams making it through unbeaten than none. So, I thought I’d make a little poll and break down exactly why I hold that opinion. I think I’m about to create a post whose length will hearken back to glory days of Troyf’s and Chief Rum’s monster posts, but hopefully that will not be a bad thing.

Teams left undefeated (in order of likely-hood to win out IMHO):

Most likely

Texas: Texas is the deepest, most talented team in college football this year. They also have the easiest route to win out if you compare their strength versus their future opponents’ strength. The only caveat that must be thrown in here is the “Mack Brown” factor. The man has time and time again coached the most talented teams to never win a conference title. This team should be the one with which he can finally break that cycle.

Virginia Tech: This team is so well coached, and has the depth to finish clear with ease. It also helps that the major players in the ACC are all on down swings. Miami should play the Hokies tough, but Tech is not going to lose to this Hurricane team at home. They should blow-out BC at home, so that will most likely be their only close upset “scare” of the season. If they play FSU in the championship game..well…I would guess it will not even be a close game. That is not say that VT hasn’t imploded in this situation before (in a much weaker Big East no less), but they have a magic to them this year. I’d put money on them being the MNC this year.

USC: If Texas is the deepest team, then USC is the most “top-loaded.” They have NFL talent everywhere on this team. They have looked so beatable this year, and the fact they have such a long winning streak, makes them number three in the “likely to make unbeaten” list, but that is not suggest I think they will fail to make it. They have a few more “scares” ahead of them, but I don’t see anyone upsetting them.

Should

Georgia: This team is the most beatable of the top four by far. They have every opportunity to falter against Florida or Auburn (though they are a much better team than either). They also most likely face a tough Alabama or LSU team in the championship game. They should be able to take any challengers, though. *Should* being emphasized.

Has a shot

Alabama: Of those undefeated teams left after the top 4, I’ll give the Tide the only shot at maybe making it. I think, though, that they most likely will not even make the SEC championship game without a loss, if they even play in the game! Mike Shula has not suddenly become a genius, nor does this team have horses to finish this campaign out without a stumble. The only reasons they have a shot are 1) They have Tennessee at home, though I still think the Vols might win. 2) They have LSU at home, though again I’d favor LSU in that game. 3) Auburn is not that good. And 4) If they make it to the championship game, anything could happen. That being said, if Brodie Croyle finishes the season without injury, the Tide fans should be happy.

Pretenders

UCLA: Will most likely have a loss before they face USC. They actually may have a better chance against the Trojan’s if they do, because an undefeated UCLA will probably just make USC that much more motivated to steam-roll them.

Texas Tech: A fun little “fly-in-the-ointment” team that really could win out if they didn’t play Texas. They may play Texas tight, but if they do that will be as close as they come.


In conclusion: By my calculations (and I didn’t even have to take my shoes off to figure it out) it is only possible for 4 teams to be undefeated at this point (Texas plays Texas Tech, undefeated UGA would play an undefeated Alabama, and USC plays UCLA). I do think that there is a strong possibility that all 4 will make it out.


What say you?

[Ben E Lou]

While it would SUCK for UGA, I'd love to see the no-playoff hypocrites get their comeuppance by having three undefeated teams from power conferences in two seasons left out of the party.

[QuikSand]

Does one have to be a hypocrite to oppose a playoff system?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Does one have to be a hypocrite to oppose a playoff system?

No, but the majority of the arguments I've heard in opposition are inconsistent at the very least, if not flat-out hypocritical.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Does one have to be a hypocrite to oppose a playoff system?

If your support is for "tradition" reasons, or you just personally like it, then no. Emotional attachment to a antiquated system is personal preference, and there is nothing wrong with having a personal preference. Every other arguement I've ever heard was based on vapor and do tend to meet themselves coming and going.

[QuikSand]

Isn't it at least possible to argue consistently that a system with a minimal postseason offers college football a more meaningful regular season (and that there is value in that)?

[timmynausea]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Isn't it at least possible to argue consistently that a system with a minimal postseason offers college football a more meaningful regular season (and that there is value in that)?

I'm actually a little torn for this reason. I'd like a small playoff, like maybe a three game playoff for the top 4, but with the way things work, every regular season week is like a heavyweight championship fight. I don't want them to ruin that.

[st.cronin]

There is also the argument, made by eccentrics like myself, that having 37 teams (or whatever the number of bowls is now) end the season with a win is better than having only 1 team end with a win (as in basketball). One can argue whether LSU or USC was the national champ two years ago - but both fan bases were jubilant at season's end. In my mind, that's good for college football.

[Noop]

Florida State Sigh I need a few days to even comment on that display from last night. We were so close to making it happen... I think the biggest threat to the BCS is having a bunch of one lost teams. It can happen but likely wont happen but hey if it does then watch it crumble.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Noop

Florida State Sigh I need a few days to even comment on that display from last night. We were so close to making it happen... I think the biggest threat to the BCS is having a bunch of one lost teams. It can happen but likely wont happen but hey if it does then watch it crumble.

I would think that undefeated teams left out of the BCS cause it to lose more . . . "moral authority" than a bunch of one loss teams. As long as a team has a loss, people can argue that they had their fate in their hands and lost it.

Now, if, a one loss team makes it in over an undefeated team, then I think that you have a strong argument against the BCS.

Personally, I'm old school. Play out your schedule. Go to the best bowl you can, and if the sportswriters decide that you are the national champ, then you can hold up the banner. If they don't, then you can bitch about it. It's all a "mythical" national championship anyway--and that's all it ever has been.

A half-solution like the BCS seems like the worst of all worlds to me.

A playoff would be OK, but then what would inter-sectional games be for? Wild-card seeding? Whoopiee. I could be wrong, but it seems to me that Florida-Florida State and USC-Notre Dame would lose their luster when all that mattered was winning your conference to get the automatic playoff spot.

Beating Vandy would start to mean a hell of a lot more to Florida than beating Miami and Florida State. And that just does not seem like as pleasant of a football world to me.

[GrantDawg]

Let's not go to the playoff-bcs discussion here, ok? I really want to know the opinions of who you think we'll go undefeated and why.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Isn't it at least possible to argue consistently that a system with a minimal postseason offers college football a more meaningful regular season (and that there is value in that)?

But even that runs into a problem because as GrantDawg has noted, barring a flurry of upsets, it's the middle of October and already we're down to seven teams with a shot of the national championship. And the regular season never had any meaning for teams in conferences outside the BCS because the current system ensures them virtually no chance to compete for a national title starting in August.

A playoff certainly would diminish some value in the regular season for the top 8 teams in the country, but it would make the regular season more meaningful for the next 40 teams in the country.

Unless you're a traditionalist as noted above and you get aroused watching your team rally down the stretch drive to finish 6-5 and clinch a spot in the GoDaddy.com Bowl, which you'd probably still get even with a playoff.

[st.cronin]

Ok, fine.

I am unimpressed with Va tech; I think they will lose AT LEAST one game in the regular season. Georgia and Alabama if they win out will have to play each other; I think that's about 50/50. Texas and USC are the most talented teams I've seen, by far, but both have been prone to sloppy play at times. I wouldn't be shocked to see A&M knock off Texas, or UCLA knock off USC. There are other possibilities as well.

I think 1 or 2 undefeated teams is about as likely as 0 undefeated teams.

25% 1
25% 2
45% 0
5% more than 2

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

And the regular season never had any meaning for teams in conferences outside the BCS ...

I think that is a very silly thing to try and claim. In New Mexico, the pre-season hype was all about how the Lobos were contenders for the MWC title.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Let's not go to the playoff-bcs discussion here, ok? I really want to know the opinions of who you think we'll go undefeated and why.

Understood.

I think that Texas and Va. Tech will because I think that they are the two best teams in the country right now.

I think that USC will stumble. Maybe it is just hangover from watching the Notre Dame game, but they certainly seem mortal.

I agree with you about UCLA and Texas Tech.

Finally, I could see Georgia or Alabama going undefeated. The flip side about both of them not being able to go undefeated is that--if they both make it to the championship undefeated, then one of them has to come out of the game undefeated.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

But even that runs into a problem because as GrantDawg has noted, barring a flurry of upsets, it's the middle of October and already we're down to seven teams with a shot of the national championship. And the regular season never had any meaning for teams in conferences outside the BCS because the current system ensures them virtually no chance to compete for a national title starting in August.

A playoff certainly would diminish some value in the regular season for the top 8 teams in the country, but it would make the regular season more meaningful for the next 40 teams in the country.

Unless you're a traditionalist as noted above and you get aroused watching your team rally down the stretch drive to finish 6-5 and clinch a spot in the GoDaddy.com Bowl, which you'd probably still get even with a playoff.

Great post! One of the justifications for the BCS is that it makes the regular season more meaningful. But if a team has lost once or twice, what makes the rest of the season meaningful? Maybe a big rivalry game, but outside of that, you know you aren't going to a BCS bowl.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think that is a very silly thing to try and claim. In New Mexico, the pre-season hype was all about how the Lobos were contenders for the MWC title.

But then the same point can be made...at best, you're hoping to win your conference title. You have no shot of becoming the national champions. You are starting the season KNOWING that there is NO chance you will be the best team in the country.

[kingnebwsu]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I think that USC will stumble. Maybe it is just hangover from watching the Notre Dame game, but they certainly seem mortal.

See, I'm on the other end of that fence. I think that ND looked REALLY good and if USC can win in that kind of game vs that kind of team in that kind of environment, then wow. I know it was an amazingly close game (and an AWESOME game too), but the fact is USC won. Until they are dethroned, they are the defending champs and deserve a shot to defend their title until they lose. Not saying they won't lose, but if they can survive yesterday, then why can't they go undefeated?

We'll see what happens...go college football!

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Logan

But then the same point can be made...at best, you're hoping to win your conference title. You have no shot of becoming the national champions. You are starting the season KNOWING that there is NO chance you will be the best team in the country.

But that is something you can see whether there's a playoff or not. No matter what sort of postseason the NCAA used, nobody in Albuquerque would even be dreaming of a national title for the Lobos. The best they hope for is 1.) MWC title and 2.) playing, and hopefully winning, a bowl game. The pipe dream for those squads is an undefeated season. The National Title is/would be only for teams in the SEC, Big 12, etc. Unless you want to argue that a playoff system would cause further parity and give Boise State or Toledo a recruiting advantage... otherwise, I don't understand what you're arguing.

Personally, I think the system as it stands is just about perfect. A team like Auburn last year still takes a lot of pride in a perfect season in perhaps the best conference in the land. Were I a fan of such a team, I'd be ok with that.

[GrantDawg]

So it looks like "3" has the early lead. Are there three specific teams that people feel will make it, or people voting a general 3 from the field?

[digamma]

I think the winner of the Texas-Texas Tech game next week has a great shot of finishing undefeated. I think Texas Tech is better than people give them credit for being. I think Texas may have the deepest defense, but I'm not all that impressed with their backfield depth--Nordgren is an unknown quantity and Selvyn Young still puts the ball on the ground too much.

USC is the deepest team in the country offensively--and I don't think it's very close. They have the easiest road the rest of the way.

VPI has a great shot because every tough game until the ACC title game will be at home.

I think Alabama and Georgia probably trip up before the end of the season. Alabama has to run the Tennessee, LSU, Auburn plus SEC title game gauntlet. With Prothro, I think they're probably the most complete team in the SEC on a 1-22 basis, but their depth falls off, and I think they'll have trouble finding a consistent big play receiver without him. Georgia has three rivalry type games before the SEC title game. I think one of those three teams will play their best game of the season and knock them off, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's on Halloween weekend.

UCLA lives on the edge too much and will fall off before the end of the season.

That said, I voted two, because I think one of the top three will find a way to beat themselves before the end of the season.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

So it looks like "3" has the early lead. Are there three specific teams that people feel will make it, or people voting a general 3 from the field?

I expect USC and Texas to finish undefeated and will be suprised if they don't. I think it's possible that one of Virginia Tech, Alabama and UGA will go undefeated, though it won't suprise me if they all stumble, but I went ahead and voted for 3.