Mentorship Revisited...Huh?

[Dutch]

Let's take a look at two veteran quarterbacks in FOF.

Subject #1: Victor Whyte
Experience - 15
QB Starts - 24
Loyalty - 89
Wants Winner - 7
Leadership - 14
Intelligence - 59
Personality - 75
Popularity - 41
Volatility - 15
Status - Mentor

Subject #2: Donald Woods
Experience - 15
QB Starts - 77
Loyalty - 34
Wants Winner - 78
Leadership - 87
Intelligence - 72
Personality - 89
Popularity - 100
Volatility - 3
Status - Not a mentor

Why is that? What triggers a mentorship in Victor Whyte that can't or won't trigger the mentorship in Donald Woods? What am I failing to see here?

[cthomer5000]

Yeah, i speculated about this in the offseason with a few owners. I never came public with anything since I never came to any conclusion. My theory is that there is a certain level a player has to hit to become eligible to be a mentor. Then I'm guessing the game rolls the dice every offseason to see if those players do become mentors. I think Victor Whyte (fuck that guy) got very lucky, and Donald Woods has been very unlucky.

If i'm right, i don't think it would even be that hard to test. Simply run the end-season routine, note the mentors, then repeat the cycle a few times. My guess is that you'll see some randomness. I've just haven't ever worked up the energy to try this.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by cthomer5000

Yeah, i speculated about this in the offseason with a few owners. I never came public with anything since I never came to any conclusion. My theory is that there is a certain level a player has to hit to become eligible to be a mentor. Then I'm guessing the game rolls the dice every offseason to see if those players do become mentors. I think Victor Whyte (fuck that guy) got very lucky, and Donald Woods has been very unlucky.

If i'm right, i don't think it would even be that hard to test. Simply run the end-season routine, note the mentors, then repeat the cycle a few times. My guess is that you'll see some randomness. I've just haven't ever worked up the energy to try this.

Well, it is my question and I don't have shit to do for a week, maybe I'll give the testing a go.

I did think to myself that their is a random factor like a die roll invovled that screws up the chances.

I've also tried taking away points for being high in "Wants Winner" (seemed like I was getting somwhere with that but then there are exceptions)and "Personality" (doesn't seem to jive) and tried adding points for "Loyalty" but nothing so far is really stacking up as concrete evidence of how to make a mentor.

[cthomer5000]

We'll, i think we're all about 100% certain that leadership and intelligence are the only factors. Whyte might be the worst qualified mentor I've ever seen though. :shurg:


edit: fixed my mistake that MIJB pointed out.

[Vince]

I think we're all about 100% certain that Victor Whyte could shrivel up and die and no one would care.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by cthomer5000

We'll, i think we're all about 100% certain that personality and intelligence are the only factors. Whyte might be the worst qualified mentor I've ever seen though. :shurg:

Don't you mean leadership and intelligence?

[cthomer5000]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

Don't you mean leadership and intelligence?

yes. my mistake!

[MrBigglesworth]

I wrote this in another mentor thread:

Sorry to bring up a way old thread, but I added another league's worth of mentors to the spreadsheet and graphed LDR vs. INT for mentors and EXP vs. (LDR+INT). From the former, it seems that a player needs a combined leadership and intelligence score of 100 or higher to become a mentor. From the latter, it seems that to become a mentor in his 5th year he needs a combined score of at least 150, and by his 9th year that requirement dips to 100. The requirement goes down even further by the 15th year.

I found that every mentor in his 5th-9th year had a leadership + intelligence of 150+, every 10-14 had 100+, and 15+ was a crapshoot. However, the opposite was definitely not true, ie not everyone over 150 was a mentor by year 9.

[QuikSand]

Maybe there's a special, wide-open "dice roll" that happens at a certain advanced age (15 years of experience?) where anyone can get lucky and become a mentor? I wonder if we can pinpoint when Whyte became one... he is an odd case, for sure.

[cthomer5000]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I wonder if we can pinpoint when Whyte became one... he is an odd case, for sure.

He became one in 2007, his 13th year.

[Raiders Army]

You put up the QB starts stats, but they don't tell the whole story. It's possible that I could only have 24 starts in 15 years, but I have 24,000 passing yards (not probable, but still possible). What were there other statistics?

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

You put up the QB starts stats, but they don't tell the whole story. It's possible that I could only have 24 starts in 15 years, but I have 24,000 passing yards (not probable, but still possible). What were there other statistics?

This probably won't help, but here they are!

Victor Whyte
GS - 24
Attempts - 592
Comp - 307
Pct - 51.8
Yards - 3755
Ave - 6.34
TD - 20
Int - 24
QB Rating - 66.0
All-League Team - 0
MVP of Championship Game - 0
POG Awards - 0
Status - Mentor

Donald Woods
GS - 77
Attempts - 2926
Comp - 1678
Pct - 57.3
Yards - 21,397
Ave - 7.31
TD - 142
Int - 58
QB Rating - 88.2
All-League Team - 3
MVP of Championship Game - 1
POG Awards - 20
Status - Not a Mentor

Donald Woods even can hold a football for kicks better than Victor Whyte (24-21).

[Raiders Army]

Yep, it doesn't help. One last thing, what was Whyte's record as a starter?

[Dutch]

Probably won't be impressed with this either. (BTW - I've linked them to the IHOF site player cards created by VPI97.)

Donald Woods W-L Record: 61-24
Victor Whyte W-L Record: 7-20

[cthomer5000]

Whyte gets so little respect that his name on his own jersey is misspelled.

[SirFozzie]

Whyte out!

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by cthomer5000

Whyte gets so little respect that his name on his own jersey is misspelled.

LOL. It's like he's cursed.

[SirFozzie]

Damnit Dutch, I've never had a wigfecta before, let a fucking elitist have his moment of glory (at least in the FOF Discussion group )

[Dutch]

What?

[Alf]

/me loves Victor Whyte

He was the key to my team beating New Plainfield in the playoffs.

He was then also the base of a new IHOF rule which I call the "Victor Whyte rule" where non-playoff teams are not allowed to cut players (thanks Vince)

He became a mentor in Bordeaux maybe because he was "not" playing on a 3 time Division winner and playoff team (speculation here).

He got me a nice pick as part of a trade with Ann Arbor because Donald Woods never turned into a mentor

[Alf]

dola, he became mentor just after I nicknamed him Victor 'Cursed' Whyte

[cthomer5000]

But anyway, if someone wants to test it, i think a pretty obvious method is there.

1. Start with a game file right before "end season".
2. Mark down who all the mentors are (and their attributes)
3. Start the new season
4. Mark down who all the new mentors are (and their attributes)
5. Repeat the process a few times with the same file

My gut feeling is that we'll quickly see that not every guy becomes a mentor every time. All evidence points to some sort of dice roll theory after a player meets a minimum qualification (involving leadership, intelligence, and experience).

Victor Whyte may just be some bizzare exception to the rule. And since he was part of the original player file that was generated by a 3rd party utility... perhaps it was just some sort of freak occurrence.

[fantastic flying froggies]

Maybe Woods did not become a mentor because Whyte was already a mentor and on the Ann Arbor roster.
I know you can have more than 1 mentor at a given position on a roster, but maybe a player can't become a mentor if there already is one on the team. From a purely logical point of view, it would make sense...

[Alf]

FFF makes a very valid point here

[yabanci]

Originally Posted by fantastic flying froggies

Maybe Woods did not become a mentor because Whyte was already a mentor and on the Ann Arbor roster.
I know you can have more than 1 mentor at a given position on a roster, but maybe a player can't become a mentor if there already is one on the team. From a purely logical point of view, it would make sense...

No, I had a WR mentor on my roster for several years and last year another one of my WRs became a mentor too. In my opinion there is some kind of dice roll for qualified players.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by fantastic flying froggies

Maybe Woods did not become a mentor because Whyte was already a mentor and on the Ann Arbor roster.
I know you can have more than 1 mentor at a given position on a roster, but maybe a player can't become a mentor if there already is one on the team. From a purely logical point of view, it would make sense...

Fumblin' Justin became a mentor while we already had Thad.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Vince

I think we're all about 100% certain that Victor Whyte could shrivel up and die and no one would care.

Ahem.

[wishbone]

Originally Posted by Vince

I think we're all about 100% certain that Victor Whyte could shrivel up and die and no one would care.

http://www.mail-archive.com/bug-gplu.../msg02143.html

http://www.ibdb.com/person.asp?ID=114591

[Dutch]

I did a bit of QB Mentor testing today by doing as Corey suggested and do the old reload game bit. I reloaded a season about 20 times to easily progress from year 2005 to 2006 in a SP game.

2005 - 7 mentors

Click 'end season'

2006 - 8 mentors

When I investigate, I see a new QB mentor named Kurre. He's rated at 62 in both Int and Ldr.

Then, I reload the 2005 season and run it again.

2006 - 7 mentors

What happened to Kurre? Must be that random die roll, right? Well, sort of. The guy disappears from the Free Agent Pool--retired.

I ran this test about 20 times and the guy retired 15 or 16 of those times (I wasn't keeping track unfortunately, but this is about right). The 4 or 5 times he did not retire, he bacame a mentor. Not once did he get into his 11th year and not be a mentor.

Only one Quarterback had a higher combined Int/Ldr rating than Kurre but that was an 8th year QB. A couple of guys were a bit older and had ratings a bit lower (composite in the low 100's) but they never became mentors. No other QB would become a mentor in the 20 or so reloads.

Another point of intersest (at least to me) was I thought perhaps there was a quota. One Mentor retires, a new one is created. But a 17 year QB mentor retired a few times in those 20 reloads and a 15 year QB mentor retired a couple of times. I figured that perhaps with one of these guys retiring, it would 'force' Kurre to stick around to be a mentor, but he retired in every case of a mentor retiring (just random chance I suppose).

I was a bit surprised to see Kurre (10th year guy) retire from free agency so many times while a really bad 9th year QB Mentor (rated 4/12) was still in the FA pool (after the 'end season' button was pushed) every single time. Is acquiring a mentorship a new lease on life?

That's all so far. I'd like to verify this against another "destined" QB mentor to really make anyting of it all. I'll let you know.

[cthomer5000]

Thanks for starting up some sort of research... seems that maybe my assumption was wrong.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by cthomer5000

Thanks for starting up some sort of research... seems that maybe my assumption was wrong.

Unless the "randomness" of the player becoming a mentor is not done during the "end season" phase...

[Dutch]

Okay, it's the year 2006. I have 3 new QB Mentors.

I've restarted the 2006 season 5 times and each season produces these same three new QB Mentors.

Retirements in the FA pool and from teams are completely random each time.

The New Guys

Earl Bjorlin, 9th year, LDR-48, INT-80 (128)

E.G. Lumpkin, 5th year, LDR-65, INT-99 (164) --Only one game start, so experience and stats are definately out of the picture.

Bogus Trumper, 10th year, LDR-93, INT-68 (161)

Only 2 quarterbacks had higher composite LDR+INT scores that were not promoted to MENTORS.

C. Fleming scored a 129 as a 6th year QB
S. Dodsworth scored a 136 as a 9th year QB

Both beat Bjorlin. I assume their is a bonus modifier for every year beyond 5, so that could explain why Bjorlin (9th year) was promoted over Fleming (6th year) but it does not explain why Bjorlin (9th year) beat out Dodsworth (9th year) who scored better.

All I guess I've discovered is that it's not random who gets to be a mentor. And none of this expalins why Donald Woods isn't a mentor. Maybe it's just a freak of the initial roster file screwing it up???

[Coder]

Without having read thoroughly, is it not possible that there is a random chance based on the involved factors? I mean, in Bjorlin's case, he had a percentage chance based on Leadership, Intelligence, Experience PLUS a random number.. and he "passed", while in Dodsworth case he simply didn't pass.. maybe next year?

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Coder

Without having read thoroughly, is it not possible that there is a random chance based on the involved factors? I mean, in Bjorlin's case, he had a percentage chance based on Leadership, Intelligence, Experience PLUS a random number.. and he "passed", while in Dodsworth case he simply didn't pass.. maybe next year?

I saved the game right after the championship game and reloaded and clicked "End Season" multiple times and the exact same QB's became mentors. In this case, Bjorlin always became a mentor and Dodsworth did not.

So perhaps it's destiny. Maybe it's pre-determined when the player is created. That would explain why Donald Woods never became a mentor. Maybe he was supposed to become a mentor in this 5th year of his career and since he never had a 5th year, perhaps that's why he was shafted.

But then that doesn't explain why certain folks are already mentors from the beginning.

[OldGiants]

I've always thought the number of formations a QB knows also is a factor. Right now, no QB in my solo-league is a Mentor without knowing at least 16 formations. Guys with better Int and Leadership but who know 15 or fewer formations aren't Mentors.

[Dutch]

I've got two guys with just 14 formations that are mentors. That may just be an indirect result of high intelligence.

[cthomer5000]

Originally Posted by Dutch

I've got two guys with just 14 formations that are mentors. That may just be an indirect result of high intelligence.

Fumblin' Justin McDavid of Maassluis knows just 10 formations.

[Samdari]

I think IHOF QBs may skew any research being done here. Jim has often said that player pools created in outside programs would produce unexpected results. I would be wary of drawing any conclusions based on players in the initial IHOF pool, or any league created with the external generator.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Samdari

I think IHOF QBs may skew any research being done here. Jim has often said that player pools created in outside programs would produce unexpected results. I would be wary of drawing any conclusions based on players in the initial IHOF pool, or any league created with the external generator.

True and it certainly can nullify any conclusions for Donald Woods. But the above tests were all done with a random player file built by FOF and some of the same instances of players we think should be mentors before others is still not happening.

There's a formula to it and I think we understand the bulk of it, but there are still other factors we just aren't seeing...and random die-rolls don't seem to play a part in the formula.

[Samdari]

Originally Posted by Dutch

True and it certainly can nullify any conclusions for Donald Woods. But the above tests were all done with a random player file built by FOF and some of the same instances of players we think should be mentors before others is still not happening.

There's a formula to it and I think we understand the bulk of it, but there are still other factors we just aren't seeing...and random die-rolls don't seem to play a part in the formula.

I was not talking about your tests. I just think that people are trying too hard to look for expanations for Donald Woods, Victor Whyte and Fumblin' Justin, when all were created by an external generator. An even bigger mistake, IMO, would be deriving conclusions from them.

[Dutch]

I do agree, Samdari.

I have kind of moved away from Whyte/Wood and am interested in Bjorlin/Dodsworth. Similar situation, but created with the random file.

[Buzzbee]

Dutch - What is Doddsworth's breakdown? Perhaps rather than a straight total it is a weighted total. Maybe Intelligence counts more than Leadership? That might explain Trumper taking 'til year 10, and Lumpkin making it after five, and Bjorlin making it and Doddsworth not.

[Dutch]

Here they are in their 9th year (2008)

Subject #1: Earl Bjorlin
Experience - 9
QB Starts - 44
Loyalty - 65
Wants Winner - 47
Leadership - 48
Intelligence - 80
Personality - 12
Popularity - 100
Volatility - 14
Status - Mentor

Subject #2: Samuel Dodsworth
Experience - 9
QB Starts - 40
Loyalty - 26
Wants Winner - 65
Leadership - 51
Intelligence - 85
Personality - 82
Popularity - 71
Volatility - 30
Status - Not a mentor

[st.cronin]

Loyalty jumps out at me.

[Samdari]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Loyalty jumps out at me.

Actually, a low wants winner is more highly correlated. From what I have seen, mentors and non-mentors both average around 50 in loyalty. Mentors have a significantly lower average in wants winner - at least in the one league I compiled stats for.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Samdari

Actually, a low wants winner is more highly correlated. From what I have seen, mentors and non-mentors both average around 50 in loyalty. Mentors have a significantly lower average in wants winner - at least in the one league I compiled stats for.

I've noted the low wants winner, suggesting that a majority of the mentors have low wants winners, but not all of them hold true to that.

(Exp) Loyalty - Wants Winner - Leadership - Intelligence

Current Mentors
E.G. Lumpkin (5) 60 - 26 - 65 - 99
Chad Wolfsmith (14) 56 - 12 - 48 - 59
Earl Bjorlin (9) 65 - 47 - 48 - 80
Bogus Trumper (10) 29 - 6 - 93 - 68
Silk Coleman (11) 23 - 43 - 65 - 97
Newland Archer (11) 35 - 15 - 88 - 98
Elmer Gantry (18) 45 - 31 - 86 - 64
Rian Pirtle (15) 78 - 56 - 95 - 58
Jeff Kurre (12) 59 - 73 - 62 - 62

Notable Non-Mentors
Travis Eichhorst (8) 72 - 84 - 91 - 36
Samuel Dodsworth (9) 26 - 65 - 51 - 85
Rick Robinson (9) 22 - 48 - 61 - 77
Milt Daggett (8) 30 - 95 - 84 - 35
Jay Gatsby (10) 58 - 24 - 76 - 16

[cthomer5000]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Loyalty jumps out at me.

It's not a static rating, so I'd be somewhat hesitant to use that to draw any conclusions from.

[Samdari]

Originally Posted by Dutch

I've noted the low wants winner, suggesting that a majority of the mentors have low wants winners, but not all of them hold true to that.

No they don't, but in general, it seems that the mentors with low lead + intel have low want winner. I was thinking something like lead + intel - winner?

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Samdari

No they don't, but in general, it seems that the mentors with low lead + intel have low want winner. I was thinking something like lead + intel - winner?

I have actually tried that exact formula and I want to say I came up with a bad result right off the bat. But I think it's possible that that is part of the solution. It might be 2x + 2y - z for all we know...it's pretty easy to factor in all kinds of stuff that makes it very difficult to reverse-engineer.