Improbable lyrics / poker puzzle

[QuikSand]

While While I really have no particular respect for Phil Collins whatsoever, I did find it interesting that an enterprising soul recently made some fake lyrics to one of his songs, which had a poker bent.

It turns out the parody lyrics make out the situation of a poker hand, and if we make some reasonable assumptions about the hand from the lyrics – there might be a puzzle in here. And I rarely miss a chance at a puzzle.

So, here are the aforementioned parody lyrics – if you’re like me, you’ll probably want to avoid putting this to the tune of the Phil Collins song, but that’s your call:

With insincere apologies to Phil Collins, Against All Odds


How can I just throw this hand away,
just let you beat my king and ace
When I sit here holding overcards on you, ooh
You're the only one who would even make the call

How can you check raise the turn on me,
when all I can do is call or leave
Cos I bet the flop and bet the turn,
even though I missed that queen
You're the only one who would even make the call

So take a look at my hand,
I've got an empty ace
And there's nothing left here to river me,
just a gutshot to the straight
Take a look at my hand,
'cos I raised my suited ace
And you drawing out on me
was against the odds but that's what I've got to face

I wish I could have hit the turn this hand,
turned a king to see you cry
There's so much I read as I see you,
so many tells don't lie
Donkey's queen and ten shouldn't be in here at all

So take a look at my hand,
'cos I've got an empty ace
And there's nothing left here to river me,
just a gutshot to the straight
Take a look at this pot,
'cos there's just my empty ace
But to call for you,
well that's all I can do, that's the bet I've got to place
Take a good look at this pot,
'cos I will be calling here
Him dealing a jack for me is against all odds
That's the chance I've got to take, oh, oho

Take a look at this pot...

So, with that – and making as reasonable assumptions as you can, including (at least for these purposes) that this is a limit Texas Hold ‘em game…


-What has been the play in this hand thus far?

-Do you agree with the players’ decisions so far?

-What would you do from here if you are the player who’s singing?


I realize this isn’t quite as finely pointed as it might be… but perhaps there’s a decent discussion to be had anyway. If not, no real loss, I guess, other than forcing some people to think about Phil Collins when they were on their way to having a pleasant day otherwise.

Enjoy, if you can…

[Butter]

Singer raised before the flop, which got called.

Flop was XXT, singer bet, was called.

Turn was a Q, singer bet, got raised... singer is considering the call to try and win the pot on a Jack to complete the high straight against what he believes is 2 pair.

Personally, I would not agree with the turn bet, or a call by the singer here.

But I'm not the poker pro that some of you seem to be.

[primelord]

Well let's see. Hero raised AKs preflop. There is no discussion about if this is a heads up match or if it's not then if these players are in the blinds. Let's assume they are not. So preflop Donkey limps, Hero raises, Donkey calls. That puts 5 1/2 small bets in the pot. (Assuming they aren't the blinds).

The flop comes T high. Donkey Checks, Hero Bets, Donkey Calls. So there are 7 1/2 small bets in the pot. The turn is a Q. Donkey checks, Hero bets, Donkey check-raises. So now there are 6.75 BBs in the pot. Hero seems to have a read that Donkey would not check-raise the turn with less than two pair. So he has to hit the gut shot to win. Up until this point I agree with Hero's play. Most Donkeys would call the flop bet with almost anything. There is a chance his A high is still best on the turn and failing to bet the turn and giving the Villan a free card to beat you on the river would be bad.

Now the turn play is a little difficult and is realy completely dependent on the Hero's read of Donkey. You need to be getting better than 10.5:1 on your money to justify a call here. Hero is obviously well short in immediate pot odds. (Assuming this is Party/Stars and we have a 4 bet cap even heads up) If Hero is VERY confident that Donkey will cap the river if the J falls then hero should make the call here. His implied odds are giving him 10.75:1 to call then. Donkey will lead the river so it all comes down to how likely Hero believes the Donkey will 3 bet his river raise.

So if he thinks it will go 4 bets on the river he should call, but if he thinks he can't get 4 bets out of Donkey when he hits then he needs to muck them.

[primelord]

Dola,

FWIW if the players were in the blinds (whether it was a heads up match or it was just folded to Donkey in the small blind) that would remove 1 1/2 small bets from the pot. That would mean Hero would only be getting 6:1 immediate odds on his turn call and a mximum of 10:1 implied odds. If they were in the blinds then Hero has a clear fold even if Donkey would cap the river.

[kcchief19]

Another key element to Butter's assessment is that the singer was in position.

Flop was XXT, donkey checked, singer bet, donkey called.
Turn was a Q, donkey checked, singer bet, donkey check-raised

Personally, I get into trouble when I try to bluff at the pot twice. Assuming that the flop bet was a decent-size bet, you have to put the guy on a decent hand -- top pair, two overcards, strong pocket pair or a pocket pair that hit a set. I bluffed once at the pot, I don't do it again knowing that he very likely has me beat. He's got a check to river with no pair and only a gutshot straight draw. I don't bluff at the point a second time. I probably raise the flop like he did, but no way do I bet the turn there. I check to the river and if I hit my straight or top pair, I might gamble.

[kcchief19]

Primelord's posts remind me I was only think pot/no-limit, not fixed limit. I'm more conservative than Primelord on the at play. I think doney has hero beat. If fixed limit, I think the only thing you can do is call the raise or muck. At best, hero has 10 outs and at worst four -- that's a fair number. I can see a call on the turn to see the river and if an ace or a king hits call any bet or cap with a jack.

Fixed limit isn't my game. There are much better authorities on that than me. But I don't feel good about putting a lot more money into this pot.

[QuikSand]

From this lyric:

You're the only one who would even make the call

I infer that the raiser was up against several players who had the chance to call the original raise... and opted not to. Only the one player (donkey) did so. And the donkey has to be one of the blinds, since he is acting before the raiser/singer to checkraise him.

That makes the most sense to me.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by primelord

Dola,

FWIW if the players were in the blinds (whether it was a heads up match or it was just folded to Donkey in the small blind) that would remove 1 1/2 small bets from the pot. That would mean Hero would only be getting 6:1 immediate odds on his turn call and a mximum of 10:1 implied odds. If they were in the blinds then Hero has a clear fold even if Donkey would cap the river.

Assuming the read is perfect, and the donkey does indeed hold QT.

If that information is not true, and there's at least some chance that the donkey is raising here with just a Q (or even just a T, or a pocket pair) then the singer has a few more outs to a top pair hand as well (even though he doesn't think so from his lyrics).

[primelord]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

From this lyric:



I infer that the raiser was up against several players who had the chance to call the original raise... and opted not to. Only the one player (donkey) did so. And the donkey has to be one of the blinds, since he is acting before the raiser/singer to checkraise him.

That makes the most sense to me.

Interesting. I read that as "you are the only one who would call my pre-flop raise with QT." Meaning only a bad player like you would make a call like that.

And I don't think we have to assume he was a blind since he could have limped early with QT. Then the only you would make the call would apply to both the original call with QT from early and the call of the raise.

With that being said. If Donkey was in a blind and Hero was not then Hero needs to fold the turn. If Donkey was in the small blind then Hero has at best 10.5:1 which means the play is break even. And if Donkey was in the big blind then hero is short still on his implied odds. So best case scenario he breaks even and that is only if Donkey will cap. It's not enoguh to justify a call.

The only way hero should continue here is if niether one of them were in a blind or if there were other preflop limpers who chose not to call the preflop raise (although I didn't see anything that suggested that)

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by primelord

Interesting. I read that as "you are the only one who would call my pre-flop raise with QT." Meaning only a bad player like you would make a call like that.

And I don't think we have to assume he was a blind since he could have limped early with QT. Then the only you would make the call would apply to both the original call with QT from early and the call of the raise.

Okay, i generally agree -- but the singer can't be too surprised if a early position limper calls a second bet with almost any hand -- the number of players who would limp, but hten fold to a single raise against only one opponent has got to be pretty slim -- so the outrage at the call wouldn't make too much sense there, would it?


(Overthinking is fun sometimes)

[primelord]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Okay, i generally agree -- but the singer can't be too surprised if a early position limper calls a second bet with almost any hand -- the number of players who would limp, but hten fold to a single raise against only one opponent has got to be pretty slim -- so the outrage at the call wouldn't make too much sense there, would it?


(Overthinking is fun sometimes)

That's a fair point. Although the outrage could be at the original limp with QT in early position which would not be good, but I think you are probably correct.

I think Hero's read is kind of key to determing the correct play here. However if we discount his read as not being 100% then what range of hands do we put Donkey on here?

Here certainly seems to believe that Donkey would not check-raise with less than two pair. So I think that means we can rule him out as a complete maniac even if he would check-raise with less. Most poor players (non-maniacs) will only check-raise with very strong hands. Even poor players realize that a check-raise is geenrally meant more to pump the pot than get someone to fold (there are obvious exceptions, but that seems to be our situation here). So I think we can pretty safely rule out that he is check-raising only a pair of Ts.

So assuming Donkey would only check-raise with at least top pair or better I would say his possible hand rainge is AQ KQ QJ-Q2 two pair T hands small sets with the two unknown board cards and the small two pair with the unknown cards. Against that range of hands we only have about 12.5% equity. I think we can safely rule out QQ and TT as it is likely they would have been re-raised preflop.

So no matter what we are not in very good shape here. With the majority of hands villan could have here we have 4 outs at worst and 7 outs at best. QJ is really the only "likely" hand here that gives us 10 outs. So if we compromise and say we have 5.5 outs against the range of hands. we need to be getting 7.36:1 to justify a call. We know Donkey will lead the river and at least call a river raise.

The question becomes do we raise an A or a K on the river? There are a lot of hands that villan could have where our A or K would not be good. However if we don't geta raise in then we are not getting the implied odds to justify a call on the turn.

I think my original conclusion applies. I don;t think we can raise our single pair on the river and we aren;t gettign enough for even a cap to be profitiable if we hit our J. So I think Hero has to fold this turn.

[kcchief19]

Puzzle aside, the lyrics to the chorus are actually pretty good to the tune. The rest of they lyrics - eh.

Try not to let that bore into your head.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

Puzzle aside, the lyrics to the chorus are actually pretty good to the tune. The rest of they lyrics - eh.

Careful there...

[primelord]

So that's settled then?

[QuikSand]

I have no problem with your very rigorous analysis.

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I did find it interesting that an enterprising soul recently made some fake lyrics to one of his songs, which had a poker bent.

Um, correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't threse your lyrics? I have a copy of this right now on my hard drive along with WSUCougar's for my next batch of songs to do.

[QuikSand]

No need to shine the light on that right here, really...

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

No need to shine the light on that right here, really...

Sorry about that, I just wanted to make sure, because I didn't want to do a song if it was written by someone else....

[QuikSand]

No worries you have the author's full permission.

[Maple Leafs]

Wait, are we sure the lyircs are allowed to be shared and/or traded?

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by Maple Leafs

Wait, are we sure the lyircs are allowed to be shared and/or traded?

Please, don't make references to that. I don't want to think of that multipage thread again.