Rumor Mill: Cubs, Prior, O's, Tejada...Manny?

[Dunleavy]

The rumor is Mark Prior doesn't care for Dusty Baker, and that the Cubs are willing to include him in a deal for the O's unhappy SS Miguel Tejada but this doesnt appear to be a 1 for 1 deal as both sides want more. also a slim chance the Cubs/O's could bring in Boston/Manny if talks bog down.

some blockbuster deal this would be. as a Cubs fan i cant believe they are willing to deal (24 year old) Mark Prior. now he is a FA to be in near future so if Baker is a problem get rid of Dusty i say. i went back to look over Tejada numbers, he is some player, and 29 year old superstar SS are very rare.

[Fonzie]

Trading away Prior would be extraordinarily stupid.

But as a Cardinals fan I wholeheartedly endorse this trade.

[Cuckoo]

Yeah, like I said in the other thread. I really like Tejada and think he's a heck of a player. I'd love to have him in Chicago, but I think trading Prior would be a bad move. And this isn't even necessarily because of his incredible talent and potential to be a dominating ace. My feelings are more because of the current state of the Cubs rotation. Maddox is old and isn't the Maddox of old. And Kerry Wood has major health issues right now. Outside of Zambrano (who is a stud), the rotation is shaky at best without Prior.

[dervack]

Originally Posted by Dunleavy

The rumor is Mark Prior doesn't care for Dusty Baker, and that the Cubs are willing to include him in a deal for the O's unhappy SS Miguel Tejada but this doesnt appear to be a 1 for 1 deal as both sides want more. also a slim chance the Cubs/O's could bring in Boston/Manny if talks bog down.

some blockbuster deal this would be. as a Cubs fan i cant believe they are willing to deal (24 year old) Mark Prior. now he is a FA to be in near future so if Baker is a problem get rid of Dusty i say. i went back to look over Tejada numbers, he is some player, and 29 year old superstar SS are very rare.

He isn't a FA until after the 2008 season. That's 3 more years. I want Tejada, not for Prior or Zambrano.

[ShaefIllini]

The most troubling part of this report is that the Cubs seem to be siding with Baker over Prior.

[Cuckoo]

Out of curiosity, where are you guys seeing the Baker/Prior feud? I haven't read that anywhere, but I suppose I just missed it. All I've seen is that they think he might be injury prone so want to trade him over Zambrano since Wood doesn't have much value with all of his injuries.

[SackAttack]

Baker has a history of ruining young arms, if I recall. Good on Prior.

[Cuckoo]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Baker has a history of ruining young arms, if I recall. Good on Prior.

There's that one again. Yeah, I've heard you and some of the sports writers repeat that tired claim many times, but I have yet to see any proof of it.

I'm not saying it's not true, but continuing to say it doesn't make it so. I haven't seen any indication through facts that he "ruins" any young arms anymore than any other manager. As for the Cubs, he hasn't ruined Zambrano's. Wood had problems before Baker even got here. So that leaves Prior. And I'm not even convinced that Prior is injury prone as some suggest. Two of the times he was on the DL, it was because of freak occurences.

[sooner333]

Baker's style with pulling pitchers would *lead* to ruining young pitcher's arms. Look at Baker's younger guns and see where they were a few years after their early careers. Shawn Estes, Russ Ortiz, Bill Swift, etc. He didn't have a ton of younger pitchers to work with in SF during the mid-90s, but the ones he did have didn't last all that long (except Reuter).

[Cuckoo]

Originally Posted by sooner333

Baker's style with pulling pitchers would *lead* to ruining young pitcher's arms. Look at Baker's younger guns and see where they were a few years after their early careers. Shawn Estes, Russ Ortiz, Bill Swift, etc. He didn't have a ton of younger pitchers to work with in SF during the mid-90s, but the ones he did have didn't last all that long (except Reuter).

You won't get an argument from me that Dusty Baker is not the greatest at handling his pitchers. But overusing them and ruining them because of that? Come on. I don't buy it at all.

I'll admit to not knowing much about his work in San Francisco, but he has done nothing to ruin any arms in Chicago. In fact, he's had some pitchers who were hurt elsewhere (Dempster, Clement) blossom under him. And everytime I hear this claim made, it's made like it's accepted fact. Nobody ever has any evidence to back it up.

I'm just saying I'd like to see some actual evidence on the issue. The only thing I remember seeing was a couple years ago, someone did a stats analysis on innings pitched by young pitchers to refute this claim and found the Dusty Baker was way down the list of managers in usage.

[Cuckoo]

DOLA

I was looking for some stats, and the only thing I can find is that Dusty Baker ranks high in overall usage of starters. It doesn't address the young pitchers or anything but also says Joe Torre ranks just as high. Interesting.

Edit: Torre, though, has largely had veteran pitchers so I suppose that's why he's not lumped in with Baker on this issue.

[Toddzilla]

Dusty doesn't rank high in his pitcher-abuse numbers - he's astronimocal. Baseball Prospectus did a little research on this and when it comesto starters, Dusty Baker is public enemy number one. It's no coincidence that ever since Dusty came to town, *every single Cubs young starter has missed significant time each year due to arm trouble*. And yes, I blame him directly.

As a Cubs fan, I'd hate to see Prior leave, but honestly, if it means getting away from Dusty and having a chance to pitch under decent circumstances and establish a career, I'm all for it. It doesn't look like Cubs brass is ever going to see through the Dusty facade, so he's gonna be here for the long term.

[Cuckoo]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

Dusty doesn't rank high in his pitcher-abuse numbers - he's astronimocal. Baseball Prospectus did a little research on this and when it comesto starters, Dusty Baker is public enemy number one. It's no coincidence that ever since Dusty came to town, *every single Cubs young starter has missed significant time each year due to arm trouble*. And yes, I blame him directly.

As a Cubs fan, I'd hate to see Prior leave, but honestly, if it means getting away from Dusty and having a chance to pitch under decent circumstances and establish a career, I'm all for it. It doesn't look like Cubs brass is ever going to see through the Dusty facade, so he's gonna be here for the long term.

Look, I'm no Dusty defender, despite how it sounds here. I think he does overuse his pitchers from time to time, and I don't think he does a very good job at handling when he pulls them. But to say that the arm problems of the Cubs pitchers are related to Dusty shows, to me, not a great knowledge of the pitchers.

The one who gets the highest number of pitches per starts, Zambrano, has had the fewest problems. Wood's problems were happening before Dusty even got there. And many managers have injury problems with their pitchers, especially guys that throw in the mid-90's like the Cubs players do.

The only examples that people bring up of Baker supposedly ruining pitchers are Swift, who I believe was something like 30 by the time he went to San Fran and Estes, who I honestly don't know enough about to comment, but my knowledge was that Estes was a bust despite any injury problems.

Say Dusty's a poor game manager, and I'm right there with you. Say the guy makes some really odd statements, and I'm nodding my head. Say he doesn't have a very good handle on the types of pitchers he has and which ones can take being pitched a bit more, and I might even grant you that.

But in my humble opinion, saying Dusty has ruined pitchers is without foundation.

As I said, though, I'm certainly willing to admit I'm wrong if someone can show me some stats that say Dusty has had more pitchers injured or more young pitchers not pan out to expectations or something. But to just continue saying it doesn't make it so for me.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by sooner333

Baker's style with pulling pitchers would *lead* to ruining young pitcher's arms. Look at Baker's younger guns and see where they were a few years after their early careers. Shawn Estes, Russ Ortiz, Bill Swift, etc. He didn't have a ton of younger pitchers to work with in SF during the mid-90s, but the ones he did have didn't last all that long (except Reuter).

Bill Swift was not exactly a young gun when he got to SF. He was 30 years old and had struggled with control and injuries in his 20's. That he pitched as well as he did in SF should count as a plus in the Dusty ledger.

[Cringer]

So what we are saying is that none of these pussies could have pitched 50 years ago? "Waaaaaaaa, you leave me in to long!!" Suck it up junior.

[CraigSca]

Interestingly, a study in the Neyer-James book about pitching shows there is no evidence that there's a correlation between "Pitcher Abuse Points" and injuries.

[sooner333]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Bill Swift was not exactly a young gun when he got to SF. He was 30 years old and had struggled with control and injuries in his 20's. That he pitched as well as he did in SF should count as a plus in the Dusty ledger.

Fair enough...I knew I was just kind of guessing on his age at the time, I just figured since he came in the Kevin Mitchell trade he was probably some sort of younger guy.

As for Estes, I believe he flamed out because of his injuries, not even with the injuries. This guy had a great curve, one of the best IMO at the time. Then, he started getting hurt and having to miss time.

Even if Baker doesn't overuse his starters to the point of injury...he uses them too long and trusts them too much...see World Series.

[Toddzilla]

Originally Posted by CraigSca

Interestingly, a study in the Neyer-James book about pitching shows there is no evidence that there's a correlation between "Pitcher Abuse Points" and injuries.

No kidding. That, to me, is fascinating. And coming from Bill James I'm willing to pretty much accept it as fact. However, Wood, Prior, and Zambrano all hit the DL with arm trouble the year after they lost in the NLCS to the Marlins. Still, if it walks like a duck, and qucks like a duck...

You know - I wonder if this just isn't a curse. Remember 1985? Sutcliffe, Trout, Eckersley, and Sanderson all spent most of the year on the DL IIRC.

[Cuckoo]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

You know - I wonder if this just isn't a curse. Remember 1985? Sutcliffe, Trout, Eckersley, and Sanderson all spent most of the year on the DL IIRC.

As a lifelong Cubs fan, I am much more willing to accept this than anything Dusty Baker does. Or perhaps Dusty Baker is simply a continuation of the curse.