OT (Politics): Who will be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008?

[flere-imsaho]

Following up from here, let's do some early speculation on the Republican side. Again, who WILL, not should, be the candidate in 2008?

[Crapshoot]

I see Frist pulling it off - the GOP is going to win this only by playing further to the base, and I think Frist looks good to them.

[fantastic flying froggies]

I know next to nothing about US internal politics.

When in doubt, go with the trout!

[Noop]

For some reason I can see them going toward a moderate nominee...

[stevew]

Allen has really impressed me when i've seen him talk. Pretty much the anti-bush when it comes to rocking the mic. I think he can present himself as enough of a moderate to be appealing to undecideds.

[JPhillips]

Allen has a decent amount of baggage that will come out during the primaries. I'm not sure he can win enough of the non-South primaries.

It looks to me like McCain is doing everything he can to get the nomination. The Repubs, much more so than the Dems, like to control the process by lining up the party heavyweights behind one candidate. This seems to be happening with McCain. What will be interesting is seeing if the party can convince Repub voters that McCain should be the choice.

[King of New York]

It's Giulliani's if he wants it--his 9/11 credentials are just unbeatable. Despite a messy personal life and some questionable personnel recommendations, he still does not have a scratch on him. If Giuliani does not want it, then it'll be George Allen, I think. His Virginia background will help--being from the upper south, he can appeal to deep south and to mid-Atlantic voters. He is very photogenic, and he has something of Clinton's soft political touch. Elizabeth Dole might have a shot--after eight years of W, a lot of republicans would welcome her understated style. McCain has angered too many party activists, and that will hurt him in the primaries. Frist's role in the Terri Schiavo case alienated a lot of moderates--the tapes of him making a long-distance diagnosis, and of him subsequently denying having done so, will doom him.

[Butter]

I'm surprised so many are picking McCain... I figured his day had passed. I can't see him ever getting the nomination. Giuliani would make much more sense, frankly.

[ice4277]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

I see Frist pulling it off - the GOP is going to win this only by playing further to the base, and I think Frist looks good to them.

If there is a Clinton/Frist final, I am moving to Somalia.

[CamEdwards]

damn. I don't know what happened to my post, but it basically said the same thing as King of New York.

I think Giuliani would be a horrible candidate, and the only things that makesme think he might not get it would be a) his position on abortion and b) his position on gun control. I could see a GOP candidate who's pro-choice, and I could see a GOP candidate who's anti-gun, but I don't know if a candidate who's both has a real chance in the primaries.

[MalcPow]

Originally Posted by King of New York

It's Giulliani's if he wants it--his 9/11 credentials are just unbeatable. Despite a messy personal life and some questionable personnel recommendations, he still does not have a scratch on him. If Giuliani does not want it, then it'll be George Allen, I think. His Virginia background will help--being from the upper south, he can appeal to deep south and to mid-Atlantic voters. He is very photogenic, and he has something of Clinton's soft political touch. Elizabeth Dole might have a shot--after eight years of W, a lot of republicans would welcome her understated style. McCain has angered too many party activists, and that will hurt him in the primaries. Frist's role in the Terri Schiavo case alienated a lot of moderates--the tapes of him making a long-distance diagnosis, and of him subsequently denying having done so, will doom him.

It's not Giuliani's if he wants it at this point, he would have to do a ton of work and really isn't even on the same plane as McCain, Frist, Allen, or even Brownback at this point. The media's fascination with Giuliani at this point is a lot of smoke and not much of an advantage considering the media loves McCain more. Allen is a solid candidate, and don't discount that he's a former governor, that is still important in a Republican nominee. But Frist has all the money and seems to really want the Presidency, and that is going to be tough to overcome. It's too bad because he is a lockdown, 100% VP if he wants it, but people on the right see a lot of problems with a Frist v. Clinton showdown and he might get cut up for it. He also, for someone who is so careful not to make enemies, has a number of them. Lott and Graham both do not like Frist and will back McCain out of varying amounts of spite, and the southern primaries, particularly South Carolina, look to be very important.

So I think Allen sets up well, but it's going to be very interesting. Giuliani as the frontrunner is pure fiction right now though.

[Ryche]

I think it comes down to McCain vs. Frist and it sounds like McCain actually has a lot of Bush's donors backing him at this point. I certainly think he's the most electable of the above, I'm not sure anyone outside McCain, Giuliani and Rice on that list could win. I don't see how anyone else there can 'excite' the electorate, which I believe is the only way the presidency stays Republican.

But Clinton against anyone on the list outside McCain will make the 2004 race look civil in comparison. It will be vicious.

[Raiders Army]

RUDY! RUDY! RUDY!

[molson]

Here's the current odds on one betting website:

John McCain 2.75
Rudy Giuliani 3
Condoleeza Rice 6
Jeb Bush 8
Bill Frist 8.5
George Allen 9
Chuck Hagel 10
George Pataki 10
Newt Gengrich 10
Tom Ridge 10
Mitt Romney 12
Bill Owens 14
Haley Barbour 14
Norm Coleman 14
Lindsey Graham 16
Sam Brownback 21
John Ashcroft 26
Arnold Schwarzenegger 41
Dick Cheney 41
Laura Bush 101

[Raiders Army]

LOL. Laura Bush! And Arnie is equal to Dick!

[Bee]

I'd think the conservative arm of the Republican Party would have a hard time accepting Giuliani or McCain (although I'd be happy with McCain).

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by CamEdwards

damn. I don't know what happened to my post, but it basically said the same thing as King of New York.

I think Giuliani would be a horrible candidate, and the only things that makesme think he might not get it would be a) his position on abortion and b) his position on gun control. I could see a GOP candidate who's pro-choice, and I could see a GOP candidate who's anti-gun, but I don't know if a candidate who's both has a real chance in the primaries.

Cam, what's the story with Frist ? Over at the corner, they're laughing at the idea that he could win this - is this just a blue-state Republican thing, or what ? I thought Frist appeals to the base, and to the anyone but McCain conservatives- especially since Brownback is probably too far to the right.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

LOL. Laura Bush! And Arnie is equal to Dick!

The Democratic odds on the same site have Bill Mahr at 151-1.

[st.cronin]

Of the longshots, Lindsey Graham would be the most amusing.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I'm in the "too early & too close to call" camp on this one right now.

I think it's likely that both the Pres. nominee & his running mate will come from this group: Allen, Brownback, Frist, and Romney.

The wildcard in the whole thing is Rudy, who could probably get whatever slot he wanted right now.

[Bee]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'm in the "too early & too close to call" camp on this one right now.

I think it's likely that both the Pres. nominee & his running mate will come from this group: Allen, Brownback, Frist, and Romney.

The wildcard in the whole thing is Rudy, who could probably get whatever slot he wanted right now.

Allen with a Frist VP candidate would be pretty sweet IMO.

[Solecismic]

McCain will turn 72 just before the next election. I don't see him getting the Republicans to rally around him, either. He's notorious for not toeing the party line.

For that reason, I hope he does pull it off. If the Democrats put up another nabob of negativity, it would be nice to have someone interesting to vote for.

Giuliani would be a fun president, but I'd be a little worried what he'd do with the Iran crisis, however. He seems about as nuanced as Bush himself.

Given what he did for New York, I bet he'd be a real throwback to the Rockefeller Republicans when it comes to domestic policy. That would be welcome. But it would upset the radical right to the point where they might put up a third-party candidate in protest.

[Senator]

McCain at 72 is rough, especially after what he has been through in his life, though I respect the man and like the Teddy Roosevelt wing of the party.

My spies keep telling me Allen, so I watch and wait. One year is a lifetime in politics.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'm in the "too early & too close to call" camp on this one right now.

I think it's likely that both the Pres. nominee & his running mate will come from this group: Allen, Brownback, Frist, and Romney.

The wildcard in the whole thing is Rudy, who could probably get whatever slot he wanted right now.

You think Brownback has the cred to get the nomination on his own ? I could see him as a McCain or Rudy running mate as a sop to the Christian right, but I'm not sure how he beats Allen, Frist, McCain and Romney for the top spot.

[JPhillips]

Isn't Allen up for reelection this year? I thought he was the guy that Webb was running against. His whole presidential campaign may boil down to that race. What happens to his money if he loses or just squeaks by a former Reagan appointee?

[st.cronin]

A Rudy-Brownback ticket would be absolutely unbeatable. Against Hillary, they might win all 50 states running away.

[JPhillips]

In a theoretical primary with many of these guys, how does Rudy win? He just doesn't seem to have a constituency that someone else doesn't have a stronger hold on.

[Young Drachma]

Guillani is too liberal, too New York and there is no way they'll rally behind him. Plus, I think he realizes he can make a lot more money right now, rather than running a tight race and getting beaten..or having all his baggage brought back to the surface.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

In a theoretical primary with many of these guys, how does Rudy win? He just doesn't seem to have a constituency that someone else doesn't have a stronger hold on.

Rudy gets the nomination by announcing that he is seeking the nomination. As JimGa pointed out, Rudy gets whatever Rudy wants.

[JPhillips]

Rudy is pro-choice, pro-gun control and lived with another woman while he was still married. You really think he could win the nomination just by announcing?

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

A Rudy-Brownback ticket would be absolutely unbeatable. Against Hillary, they might win all 50 states running away.

No way. The liberals would raise millions just digging out all the shady stuff he did while he was mayor of New York and a prosecutor, not to mention his less than stellar credentials on race.

He's attractive to people who don't know him and think he was the sole saviour of 9/11 in NYC, which is absurd and just not true at all. His image outside the northeast is completely different and he's just as polarizing to folks in the NYC area, as Dianne Feinstein is in the Senate.

His candidacy is DOA.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Rudy is pro-choice, pro-gun control and lived with another woman while he was still married. You really think he could win the nomination just by announcing?

Maybe the Democratic nomination.

[st.cronin]

Rudy is as polished a public speaker as Bill Clinton and has less baggage than Clinton did. But, you might be right.

I think, in the GOP, he gets whatever job he wants, and I don't think the Dems have a candidate that can possibly compete with him. Remember, when he was running head to head for the Senate against Hillary in New York he was polling at something like 65-35 ahead. And that was BEFORE 9/11.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

You think Brownback has the cred to get the nomination on his own ?

Today? No, I don't think he does.

But he's one of the two (Romney the other) that I believe have good potential to get a lot stronger between now & the finish line. And there's a lot of steps to be taken between now & then. I figure either Frist or Allen (who I consider the front-runners) do something to take themselves out of the hunt between now & then (somebody usually stumbles). If it's something verbal that bounces them I'd figure that to be Frist, if it's something on paper (some scandal or whatever) I'd bet on Allen.

And if the one who doesn't suffer a setback that's fatal to their hopes but rather something fairly minor, then that opens the door for one of the others like Brownback to end up on the top of the ticket.

The only combination I don't believe is very likely is Frist/Allen or Allen/Frist.
That just feels too Southern to me, I think there's a need to either go west or north for at least the bottom half of the ticket.

But heck, this far out? It's not much more than educated guesswork AFAIC, which is probably why I'm indulging in it, sort of in the spirit of all the brackets to be filled out in the next few days.

[Subby]

Gerge Allen v. Mark Warner would be fantastic!

[GrantDawg]

I just don't see McCain or Rudy winning a Republican nomination. Unless your suggesting the Christian right is going to sit this one out?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I just don't see McCain or Rudy winning a Republican nomination. Unless your suggesting the Christian right is going to sit this one out?

Who is the Christian right going to get behind? Jeb Bush? There's no way the GOP would allow that to happen. Compromises will be made, etc. The next GOP nominee will not be much like Bush.

[Young Drachma]

Maybe the GOP will tell the Christian Right that they ruled for 8 years and now the party has to move on a bit.

[SFL Cat]

I'd support a George Allen ticket.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by Senator

McCain at 72 is rough, especially after what he has been through in his life, though I respect the man and like the Teddy Roosevelt wing of the party.

My spies keep telling me Allen, so I watch and wait. One year is a lifetime in politics.

Forced to choose now, I'd go with Romney, in part because he's pretty much already running and you'd figure he'd have the inside kick in New Hampshire. to jump out early. But I think Allen may prove to be the ultimate choice.

The far-right wing of the Republican Party is so opposed to McCain getting the nomination they will stop at nothing to defeat him, so he literally has no chance. All the early polls show strength for McCain and Guliani, but moderates simply will not choose the Republican nominee. There will be family value conservatives coming out of the woodwork to oppose Guliani.

I think Frist has too much baggage; it would be like Tom Daschle trying to win the Democratic nomination. House and Senate leaders have to play their roles so partisan that it tarnishes them when it comes to running for president.

I'm amused at Brownback's mention. To me, he's a less charasmatic Dick Gephardt -- if that's possible. He appeals to a niche of the party and that's it. He might play well in Iowa, but he has no chance after that. He's a lightweight.

[Swaggs]

I think that Giuliani, and probably McCain, would lose the presidential election if they manage to win the GOP nomination because a far-right, third party candidate would run against them and pick up a fairly significant sized chunk of the vote.

I think Frist will end up winning the nomination.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

I'm amused at Brownback's mention. To me, he's a less charasmatic Dick Gephardt -- if that's possible. He appeals to a niche of the party and that's it. He might play well in Iowa, but he has no chance after that. He's a lightweight.

That's interesting because I like both Brownback and Gephardt.

[sabotai]

If Rudy Giuliani or John McCain gets the nomination, it won't matter who the Democrats put up to run for President (they'll lose).

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Rudy is as polished a public speaker as Bill Clinton and has less baggage than Clinton did. But, you might be right.

I think, in the GOP, he gets whatever job he wants, and I don't think the Dems have a candidate that can possibly compete with him. Remember, when he was running head to head for the Senate against Hillary in New York he was polling at something like 65-35 ahead. And that was BEFORE 9/11.

Sorry, I have to issue an evidence press here. A Quinipiac poll just before Guliani pulled out put it at 44-43 in Hillary's favor. In fact, almost every poll before Guiliani's exit showed the race as a dead heat. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11372.xml

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by sabotai

If Rudy Giuliani or John McCain gets the nomination, it won't matter who the Democrats put up to run for President (they'll lose).

I would disagree with that. Particularly on Giuliani.

I really believe a far right candidate would oppose Giuliani in the general election because he is pro-choice and pro-gun control. I think any gains Giuliani would make on moderate voters would be offset by the combination of a far right third party candidate and voter apathy based on those two issues. I think he would only win if the democrats also put up a candidate that would divide their base.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

Sorry, I have to issue an evidence press here. A Quinipiac poll just before Guliani pulled out put it at 44-43 in Hillary's favor. In fact, almost every poll before Guiliani's exit showed the race as a dead heat. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11372.xml

My memory may be faulty there, but the point still stands. That he was able to fight Hillary to a draw, pre 9/11, in Hillary country, is to me quite impressive.

[flere-imsaho]

New York was Hillary country? Especially in light of Giuliani's exploits there?

[flere-imsaho]

If I can over-generalize for a moment, I think Frist winning the nomination would be like Kerry winning the Democratic nomination in 2004.

[Solecismic]

Romney is not very popular up here. They're joking that he wants to run for president because he knows he can't keep his current job. He's definitely getting the flip-flop label over the abortion issue.

[ISiddiqui]

A lot of the Bush guys are getting behind McCain. He may be a tough sell to the far right guys, but as Bush's campaign showed, if you get the right guys behind you, you can sail into the winner's circle. If Allen can score an impressive win this year, it may be his. We'll have to see, though.