Where has Howard Stern's Radio Audience gone?

[SirFozzie]

http://www.boston.com/ae/celebrity/a...in_air?mode=PF

Can millions of listeners just disappear?

That's a question plaguing Howard Stern and one with vital implications for radio itself in the wake of the shock jock's heralded and hyped switch from free to satellite broadcasting.

The self-proclaimed King of All Media once commanded a national audience of 12 million daily listeners before jumping to satellite in January. But since then, his kingdom has shrunk to a small fraction of that size. Meanwhile, the shock jock's main replacements thus far have failed to hold very much of the former flock.

According to industry analysts, the new Stern math scans like this: At best, he took between 1 million and 2 million listeners with him, and his replacements, spread across many of the country's major radio markets, are drawing numbers in a similar range.

That leaves 8 million to 10 million nomadic listeners nationwide wandering the terrestrial radio dial in search of a new voice or sound to lead them out of the morning drive-time wilderness. Call them the Howard Stern diaspora, those legions unwilling to fork over satellite subscription fees and unimpressed by pretenders to the throne.

The timing could scarcely be worse for terrestrial radio, which needs an oversize, rudderless audience like it needs another intriguing and easy-to-use competitor -- say, an iPod, podcasts, personalized CDs, or, Stern notwithstanding, the siren songs of satellite.

''It's unprecedented that a radio personality of Stern's magnitude has ever just pulled the plug on his show," said Perry Michael Simon, news-talk-sports editor of AllAccess.com, an online journal of the radio industry.

With limited ratings data so far, it's hard to tell where the Stern herd is roaming, say analysts. But Arbitron ratings demonstrate they aren't stampeding toward Stern's big-name replacements, former Van Halen frontman David Lee Roth on the East Coast and comedian Adam Carolla on the West Coast. Although any comparisons between the newcomers and Stern are unfair, say analysts, the pair's ratings are nevertheless widely regarded as disappointing and, in one case, possibly job threatening.

In their first couple of months, Carolla registered less than a quarter of Stern's ratings while Roth notched well under a fifth. Executives at CBS Radio have said it will take up to two years to build an audience around their new talent, but even so many contend that Roth might soon be fired.

''I think CBS is already trying to figure out an exit strategy with Roth," said Michael Harrison, editor and publisher of the talk radio magazine Talkers. ''The jury is still out on Carolla."

Stern's numbers at Sirius, which has more than 4 million subscribers, remain a mystery. The satellite company, which charges about $13 per month for the service, won't release audience numbers. But analysts speculate that if a quarter of the company's subscribers are daily Stern listeners, that would be a staggering success.

In a recent interview, Stern attacked ex-listeners who are clinging to terrestrial radio and have refused to cheer him on the other side.

''You haven't come with me yet? How dare you?" Stern told Entertainment Weekly. ''We're up to wild, crazy stuff; the show has never sounded better."

So basically, 8-10 million people no longer listen to the radio in the morning?

[cthomer5000]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

So basically, 8-10 million people no longer listen to the radio in the morning?

I think this is entirely possible.

[stevew]

I read a different article about this topic and it seemed to suggest that a portion of his audience had migrated to NPR.

[sachmo71]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

http://www.boston.com/ae/celebrity/a...in_air?mode=PF

Can millions of listeners just disappear?

That's a question plaguing Howard Stern and one with vital implications for radio itself in the wake of the shock jock's heralded and hyped switch from free to satellite broadcasting.

The self-proclaimed King of All Media once commanded a national audience of 12 million daily listeners before jumping to satellite in January. But since then, his kingdom has shrunk to a small fraction of that size. Meanwhile, the shock jock's main replacements thus far have failed to hold very much of the former flock.

According to industry analysts, the new Stern math scans like this: At best, he took between 1 million and 2 million listeners with him, and his replacements, spread across many of the country's major radio markets, are drawing numbers in a similar range.

That leaves 8 million to 10 million nomadic listeners nationwide wandering the terrestrial radio dial in search of a new voice or sound to lead them out of the morning drive-time wilderness. Call them the Howard Stern diaspora, those legions unwilling to fork over satellite subscription fees and unimpressed by pretenders to the throne.

The timing could scarcely be worse for terrestrial radio, which needs an oversize, rudderless audience like it needs another intriguing and easy-to-use competitor -- say, an iPod, podcasts, personalized CDs, or, Stern notwithstanding, the siren songs of satellite.

''It's unprecedented that a radio personality of Stern's magnitude has ever just pulled the plug on his show," said Perry Michael Simon, news-talk-sports editor of AllAccess.com, an online journal of the radio industry.

With limited ratings data so far, it's hard to tell where the Stern herd is roaming, say analysts. But Arbitron ratings demonstrate they aren't stampeding toward Stern's big-name replacements, former Van Halen frontman David Lee Roth on the East Coast and comedian Adam Carolla on the West Coast. Although any comparisons between the newcomers and Stern are unfair, say analysts, the pair's ratings are nevertheless widely regarded as disappointing and, in one case, possibly job threatening.

In their first couple of months, Carolla registered less than a quarter of Stern's ratings while Roth notched well under a fifth. Executives at CBS Radio have said it will take up to two years to build an audience around their new talent, but even so many contend that Roth might soon be fired.

''I think CBS is already trying to figure out an exit strategy with Roth," said Michael Harrison, editor and publisher of the talk radio magazine Talkers. ''The jury is still out on Carolla."

Stern's numbers at Sirius, which has more than 4 million subscribers, remain a mystery. The satellite company, which charges about $13 per month for the service, won't release audience numbers. But analysts speculate that if a quarter of the company's subscribers are daily Stern listeners, that would be a staggering success.

In a recent interview, Stern attacked ex-listeners who are clinging to terrestrial radio and have refused to cheer him on the other side.

''You haven't come with me yet? How dare you?" Stern told Entertainment Weekly. ''We're up to wild, crazy stuff; the show has never sounded better."

So basically, 8-10 million people no longer listen to the radio in the morning?

In other news, CD sales are up dramatically. I would say books on tape as well, but this is America, not Fantasy Island.

I wish it was Fantasy Island, though. That would be AWESOME!

[sachmo71]

Originally Posted by stevew

I read a different article about this topic and it seemed to suggest that a portion of his audience had migrated to NPR.

This amuses me. Well played.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by sachmo71

This amuses me. Well played.

Actually, I'm serious, I'll see if i can find the link.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by sachmo71

This amuses me. Well played.

Doh!

[Subby]

I haven't listened to Stern in years, but part of what made him so funny was his constant dancing along the lines drawn by the FCC. The double-entendres and bleeped-out rantings were creative and hilarious. Once you remove those boundaries, maybe it gets a little easier to fall into a rut. Maybe his show just isn't that good anymore.

I was listening to XM through DirectTV one day and came across the Opie and Anthony show. Every other word was fuck or shit or something and it just seemed completely tired and unoriginal. I don't think these morning shows are going to be able to break new ground when their entire schtick (fighting censors) is taken from them.

[rkmsuf]

Personally I think Stern's show is better than ever on Sirius. They've done an outstanding job of balancing what could be a total free for all with a sensibiltiy that Opie and Anthony do not posses.

[Franklinnoble]

I think most of his audience was blue collar, and he shouldn't be surprised that the majority of them didn't shell out the cash for a new satellite radio system and montly subscription.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

I think most of his audience was blue collar, and he shouldn't be surprised that the majority of them didn't shell out the cash for a new satellite radio system and montly subscription.

I believe that is false, the majority blue collar thing. Although I have no article or anything...just remember hearing the demographics were not what you would stereotypically expect.

I'm sure MidJohnGA dude knows all this stuff.

[stevew]

Actually the article in Foz's post is abridged from the LA Times, the other article mentioning NPR was actually this same article, but in a later paragraph.

Other winners in the Stern sweepstakes may be local talk radio -- and oddly enough, National Public Radio. More time spent with NPR's Morning Edition may not be as incongruous as it might initially seem for an audience that once tuned into Stern's carnival of scatological and porn jokes, analysts say.

Morning talk radio tends to be dominated by conservatives, but Stern's audience tends to be centrist to liberal, which makes NPR is a better fit, analysts say.

As this audience experiments with other stations, analysts expect ratings to vacillate among morning shows for months, even years, before the new listening patterns become habit.

Which actually, now that I look at it, doesnt really have any factual numbers.

[Arles]

Sports talk? I know that two of my buddies that lived by Stern now listen to the local Phoenix sports guys in the morning. Ironically, I never got into Stern much but do enjoy listening to Carolla in spirts now that he's on instead.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

I believe that is false, the majority blue collar thing. Although I have no article or anything...just remember hearing the demographics were not what you would stereotypically expect.

I'm sure MidJohnGA dude knows all this stuff.

Regardless, I think most people just didn't take the show THAT seriously. It's not exactly chump-change to go out and buy a satellite receiver and commit to a monthly subscription. There's nothing on the radio that I'd pay for.

[George]

Originally Posted by Arles

Sports talk? I know that two of my buddies that lived by Stern now listen to the local Phoenix sports guys in the morning. Ironically, I never got into Stern much but do enjoy listening to Carolla in spirts now that he's on instead.

I also know a couple Stern fans who now listen to sports radio.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

Regardless, I think most people just didn't take the show THAT seriously. It's not exactly chump-change to go out and buy a satellite receiver and commit to a monthly subscription. There's nothing on the radio that I'd pay for.

2 million people thought otherwise. To me that's fairly impressive. You're statement is still true though that out of 12 million MOST didn't go with him but I doubt anyone expected them to.

[sachmo71]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

Doh!

Truth is stranger than fiction.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

Regardless, I think most people just didn't take the show THAT seriously. It's not exactly chump-change to go out and buy a satellite receiver and commit to a monthly subscription. There's nothing on the radio that I'd pay for.

This is especially the case when you call up and they encourage you to pay for a full year's subscription, give them your debit card, signa contract, etc. Its not as easy or inviting as they would hope it to be to some segments of society.

[Suburban Rhythm]

I was a loyal Stern listener for probably 8-10 years. Anything I listened to after he was done for the day, on any station (he got jerked around here in Pittsburgh, dropped by Clear Channel, etc) was background noise the rest of the day. Now, I don't even turn my radio on at my desk.

I couldn't rationalize the amount of $$$ my wife and I would have spent together on 2 subscriptions, 2 radio's, home equip, desk equip...so we just don't listen anymore. And honestly, I hardly miss it.

[Butter]

I know at least 2 Stern fans who now just listen to their iPods on their way in to work.

[flere-imsaho]

The media expressing astonishment that the 8-10 million listeners didn't go to the same, easily-measurable, place, amuses me.

What's exceedingly likely is that the 8-10 million who didn't want to get Sirius (for whatever) reason, spread out based on their likes and needs. IPods, NPR, sports, local shows, etc.... The lazy article writers just would have preferred it all be to one place so they could say "X is the new Howard Stern" and everything would be alright in the world for them.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

The media expressing astonishment that the 8-10 million listeners didn't go to the same, easily-measurable, place, amuses me.

What's exceedingly likely is that the 8-10 million who didn't want to get Sirius (for whatever) reason, spread out based on their likes and needs. IPods, NPR, sports, local shows, etc.

You pretty well covered my take on this.

One anecdotal thing that kind of ties into this: In Atlanta, there was much gnashing of teeth when "The Regular Guys" morning show got themselves fired at the local rocker (the semi-infamous "Porn star comments aired forwards instead of backwards as intended" incident).

When the station replaced TRG with Bob & Tom, as many expected, the ratings took a dive. What most people didn't expect (and has been rarely commented upon as far as I've seen) was which station experienced a simultaneous bump in the M18-34 and M25-54 demos ... #1 country station WKHX, which had about as dull & theoretically weak for those demos morning show as anyone in the market (the duo has since been let go, replaced by an even bigger disaster on-air).

But that's who got the surge in numbers at the time ... not the (trying to be) edgier alternatives, not the sports talkers, not NPR ... the friggin country station that had no logical or rational connection to the demographics looking for a new morning home.

But ...

A couple of old articles I ran across this afternoon might provide some insight into why it happened that way. The first one referenced a comment Stern made several years ago, something to the effect that he "didn't have a demographic, he had a psychographic. That his audience consisted of people who hated their job, hated their boss, etc." The second comment came from a pollster/analyst who said that Stern's audience largely consisted of "people who peaked in high school" and who found little to look forward to in their daily lives except the next drunken weekend, whereas Howard was largely living their dream - saying what he wanted, doing pretty much whatever he wanted, etc.

And that description -- people who peaked in high school -- does a better-than-anyone-wants-to-admit job of describing a lot of the country audience in Atlanta. Remember, just because they've peaked doesn't mean that they don't have reasonable incomes, decent jobs, etc. It does speak more to psychographics (the mindset) than to demographics (income, age, etc).

That bit of analysis was actually rather interesting to me today, as I started thinking about the stations/formats and started dividing them up into three basic groups -- Aspiring/Hopeful, Peaked In High School, Never peaked at all.
At least at first blush (this isn't something I've exactly devoted a lot of time to considering in these terms), it isn't a half-bad way to break down most stations/formats/markets.

edit to add -- a few more minutes of pondering & I'm adding a fourth type/group, call them the "Satisfieds".

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Stern's audience consists of pathetic losers who never really grew up.

Fixed?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

Fixed?

Yeah, almost I think.

Except that, in some ways at least, they did "grow up" (jobs, bills, families, etc.) ... they just aren't happy with how that worked out for them.

[rkmsuf]

Bring back old Franklin.

[Subby]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

Bring back old Franklin.

No shit.

[NoMyths]

He's over at his forum, which is bigger and better than this one. Clearly this is an imposter, since there's no way he'd return to this minor-league backwater.

[heybrad]

I listen, so I guess I'm a pathetic loser who peaked in high school and hate my job and life.

I didn't realize that until reading this thread.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by NoMyths

He's over at his forum, which is bigger and better than this one. Clearly this is an imposter, since there's no way he'd return to this minor-league backwater.

Part of what made him so funny was his constant dancing along the lines drawn by Skydog. The double-entendres and bleeped-out rantings were creative and hilarious. Once you remove those boundaries, maybe it gets a little easier to fall into a rut. Maybe his postings just aren't that good anymore.

What's exceedingly likely is that the 8-10 hundred who didn't want to sign up at his board (for whatever) reason, spread out based on their likes and needs. IHOF, MatrixGames, porn sites, etc....

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by sachmo71

This amuses me. Well played.

Probably the same phantom listeners of Air America... right?

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

I know at least 2 Stern fans who now just listen to their iPods on their way in to work.

The iPod and Audio books for me, ever since Tony Kornheiser abandoned me.

[NoMyths]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Part of what made him so funny was his constant dancing along the lines drawn by Skydog. The double-entendres and bleeped-out rantings were creative and hilarious. Once you remove those boundaries, maybe it gets a little easier to fall into a rut. Maybe his postings just aren't that good anymore.

What's exceedingly likely is that the 8-10 hundred who didn't want to sign up at his board (for whatever) reason, spread out based on their likes and needs. IHOF, MatrixGames, porn sites, etc....

I was reading his forum one day and came across some of the regular posters there. Every other word was fuck or shit or something and it just seemed completely tired and unoriginal. I don't think these alternate forums are going to be able to break new ground when their entire schtick (fighting SkyDog) is taken from them.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by NoMyths

I was reading his forum one day and came across some of the regular posters there. Every other word was fuck or shit or something and it just seemed completely tired and unoriginal. I don't think these alternate forums are going to be able to break new ground when their entire schtick (fighting SkyDog) is taken from them.

Personally I think Franklin's posts are better than ever on Sportsdigs. He's done an outstanding job of balancing what could be a total free for all with a sensibiltiy that rkmsuf does not posses.



(dammit, I really need an alt login for that to work best...)

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Personally I think Franklin's posts are better than ever on Sportsdigs. He's done an outstanding job of balancing what could be a total free for all with a sensibiltiy that rkmsuf does not posses.



(dammit, I really need an alt login for that to work best...)

parody posts are teh new hotness

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

What's exceedingly likely is that the 8-10 hundred who didn't want to sign up at his board (for whatever) reason, spread out based on their likes and needs. IHOF, MatrixGames, porn sites, etc....

Nicely played

SI

[Craptacular]

I hate talk radio.

[Greyroofoo]

When I can find a station down here that carries the Bob and Tom Show I'll listen to morning radio again

[Lorena]

I listen to Adam Carrolla now and don't even miss Stern. I was upset the first week and was really harsh on his "replacement"... but slowly but surely, Carrolla, Dave Dameshek, and the rest of the gang have won me over.

Stern won't see any of my $14.00/month or whatever it is.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

When I can find a station down here that carries the Bob and Tom Show I'll listen to morning radio again

There's only one affiliate in the whole state,Rock 105 in Tuscaloosa
http://www.rock105online.com/main.html

I don't know where in AL you are, but Columbus, GA's 92.7 The River probably has a signal that spills across the state line a bit & has added B&T to their mornings.
http://www.theriverrocks.net

[Cringer]

Stern didn't rip his fans for not coming to Sirius with him. That comment was a joke, and in the actual EW article it says he was laughing when it was said.

[Young Drachma]

Morning talk radio generally annoys me. I do miss old AM radio on the east coast, tho.

[panerd]

I must be one of the losers who pays $13 a month for radio. Some might argue that putting your money in a collection basket is a huge waste of money also. But no question that they have found satisfaction in their lives, they just need to get involved in everyone else's.

[stevew]

I barely listen to Stern once a week, but the 12.95 for the service is worth it to me. It's less than the cost of one new CD. I can't pick up but one crappy station in my car, but now I get all the commercial free music, plus the NFL network has some great programming.

[Cringer]

Originally Posted by stevew

I barely listen to Stern once a week, but the 12.95 for the service is worth it to me. It's less than the cost of one new CD. I can't pick up but one crappy station in my car, but now I get all the commercial free music, plus the NFL network has some great programming.

Stop the cover up, you have all your presets set to the Martha Stweart channel don't you?

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Cringer

Stop the cover up, you have all your presets set to the Martha Stweart channel don't you?

Alexis and Jennifer....you know it!

[Cringer]

Thought so.

(Stewart....just to correct my typo.)

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by stevew

I barely listen to Stern once a week, but the 12.95 for the service is worth it to me. It's less than the cost of one new CD. I can't pick up but one crappy station in my car, but now I get all the commercial free music, plus the NFL network has some great programming.

Please tell me that the one station you pick up in your car is BOB FM. BOB PLAYS ANYTHING. CALL 412-697-0969 OR 412-697-0969. BOB BOB BOB BOB BOB.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by stevew

I barely listen to Stern once a week, but the 12.95 for the service is worth it to me. It's less than the cost of one new CD. I can't pick up but one crappy station in my car, but now I get all the commercial free music, plus the NFL network has some great programming.

This leads me to another question about satellite radio. One of the things I've wondered about it is how the reception is. I live in a wooded, mountainous area. I drive daily through hills, valleys, etc. I'm skeptical as to whether or not I'd get continuous reception on my commute...

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

BOB PLAYS ANYTHING that tested well

Fixed that for ya'

[Klinglerware]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Fixed that for ya'

That's my impression too. Bob, Jack, etc., say they'll play anything, but that "anything" seems to be defined as what is in the music collection of the stereotypical white aging ex-frat-boy...