Fact or Fiction: DeAngelo Williams Will Have A Better Rookie Season Than Reggie Bush

[duckman]

This is the inaugural Fact or Fiction Thread. I thought this will be a fun way to stimulate some sports discussion on the board. Plus, I want to dethrone Kodos as the Poll King (that just doesn't sound right!).

Lets begin!

The first topic: DeAngelo Williams will have a better rookie season than Reggie Bush.

[SirFozzie]

Depends on the team they're on.

But on average, FICTION

[sabotai]

EDIT: I need to get my players straightened out....ugh

[GrantDawg]

Fact. Williams should end up in a better situation to have a good season.

[ice4277]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Fact. Williams should end up in a better situation to have a good season.

Agreed. Long-term, go with Bush, but for this year, Williams may have better numbers.

[Swaggs]

I think he could have more rushing yards, but Bush will be more valuable between rushing/receiving/returning.

[stevew]

I'm guessing that Bush will have split carries most of the season in Houston, while Williams will likely be a week one starter. I would also question the sanity of paying Bush 7 million a season, and then running him out there on the return teams.

This poll really needs to wait until they are at least drafted.

[Young Drachma]

I think it really depends on where they each play.

[stevew]

A better football pool at this stage would be something like "Fact or Fiction, the Saints will take Matt Leinart"

[Noop]

I don't think Houston will keep the 1st pick. I get the feeling they may trade it for picks and maybe a O-Linemen or two. If they do keep the pick they may trade Bush to another team... Then again I am likely wrong with this feeling.

[stevew]

I don't mean to sound harsh, I enjoy anything that tries to get more sports talk going on around here.

[duckman]

Originally Posted by stevew

A better football pool at this stage would be something like "Fact or Fiction, the Saints will take Matt Leinart"

I was basing it on the information we have now and not necessarily which team they ended up on; although I can understand where you're coming from.

Besides, I plan on doing more of these Fact or Fiction threads in the future.

[duckman]

Originally Posted by Noop

I don't think Houston will keep the 1st pick. I get the feeling they may trade it for picks and maybe a O-Linemen or two. If they do keep the pick they may trade Bush to another team... Then again I am likely wrong with this feeling.

I think that if Bush doesn't come down from his $30 million in guarantees, the Texans will either pick Mario Williams (who is asking a lot less money) or they'll trade the pick to someone like the Jets.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by duckman

I think that if Bush doesn't come down from his $30 million in guarantees, the Texans will either pick Mario Williams (who is asking a lot less money) or they'll trade the pick to someone like the Jets.

I would be shocked if they decided not to draft Bush because of his salary demands.

[Abe Sargent]

Agreed with stevew

-Anxiety

[tarcone]

FACT--- bush will end up on a team with a poor offensive line and/or an avg QB this will limit his numbers
williams will end up on a team that is decent thus he will prosper nore

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by tarcone

FACT--- bush will end up on a team with a poor offensive line and/or an avg QB this will limit his numbers
williams will end up on a team that is decent thus he will prosper nore

I agree (which is the way I voted as stated earlier) but there is a chance that Williams ends up on a team with a good, older runningback and he'll get very few carries this year. Could happen.

[JeeberD]

Dude, I expected GE's spooge to be all over this thread! Where's he hiding?

I'm in the "too early to tell" camp...

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I think he could have more rushing yards, but Bush will be more valuable between rushing/receiving/returning.

Williams is a pretty damn good all around back as well. People do not give him enough credit for what he can do in the receiving/returning game.

[Raiders Army]

Let's revisit and throw in Maurice Jones Drew. Their salaries are hard to figure out, but according to rotoworld.com:

Reggie Bush signed a 6 year, $52.5 million contract; $26.3 million guaranteed
Maurice Jones-Drew signed a 4 year, $2.75 million contract; $1.2 million guaranteed
DeAngelo Williams signed a 5 year, $7.5 million contract; $5 million guaranteed

Maurice Jones-Drew will make a minimum of $275,000 this year.

For the other two, I took the average (which I know isn't right) for the guaranteed money for both Bush and Williams.
I had Bush at $4,833,000 this year and Williams at $1,000,000.


What's interesting here is that Bush averages the worst of the three in YPC as well as longest run. He doesn't even have the best Yds/Rec. Bush turned the ball over three times (two fumbles lost and one interception), while Jones-Drew turned it over once. If we calculate how much they earned for each yard of scrimmage, Bush is vastly overpaid. Taking the same numbers for touchdowns and Jones-Drew was a real steal.

[TroyF]

Those stats are all from week 15 I believe.

There is a lot to crunch there, lets look at a few things:

1) First and foremost, Jones-Drew was a steal, he had an incredible season, no question.

2) Bush played MUCH better the second half of the season, straight across the board. This included 4.8 yards per carry the last 8 games and over 10 yards a catch. In fact, Bush's last 8 games receiving bettered Drew's output for the YEAR. (42 catches, 430 yards, 10.2 a catch)

3) Simply put, the Jags OLine was better than the Saints OLine. Fred Taylor averaged 5 yards a pop behind that line. (Jones-Drew did better it to 5.7, but the team as a whole ended up at 5 yards a yards a carry) The Saints top back averaged 4.3 yards a carry.

4) The reason for that may not have been just OLine. Look at the schedules. Drew played 4 games against two of the three worst run D's in the league and the other divisional opponent ranked 20. In those four games Drew had 61 carries for 423 yards. About 50% of his rushing yards came in those four contests. The Saints division featured the 9th, 11th and 17th ranked defenses against the run.

5) Carolina had a bizzare season, and their use or misuse of Williams was one of the most bizzare things.

Now, no question here, Drew had the better season this year. For the Oline and the games against weaker teams, he was more explosive and looked better for much of the year. This cannot be questioned.

Now all you can do is just wait and see where the guys go from there. I still think Bush is a superior player to Drew, but he's going to have to prove the second half of the season wasn't a fluke and he'll have to make adjustments.

One other name to throw out there concerning "value". Take a peak at Mike Bell. 835 total yards and 8 TD's for an undrafted FA. He had to be close to the rookie minimum of 275k and I doubt he had the signing bonus Drew got. (which hasn't been factored in here) That's a pretty nice bang for the buck.

[Raiders Army]

You're right. Bush and Jones-Drew's info was from 15 weeks. Here is a corrected copy along with Mike Bell's info:



I couldn't find any info on Mike Bell's contract. The only thing I could find was that he signed an undisclosed contract on 5/1/2006. The deal included a $20,000 signing bonus. I used the minimum rookie salary for him. Of course, as you stated above, Jones-Drew had a much higher signing bonus which skews the numbers quite a bit.

[Raiders Army]

This also makes me fear for the Raiders, having the #1 overall pick. The chances of overpaying someone are drastically higher.

Just showing this to my wife. Reggie Bush got a house every time he scored a touchdown. Bell and Jones-Drew got a car every time they scored a touchdown.

[clintl]

If you're comparing how rookie RBs did this year, Joseph Addai had a pretty good season. Certainly better than Bush and Williams. (Bell, being an undrafted FA, is just plainly a steal for the Broncos.)

[Ironhead]

Don't forget Jerious Norwood.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by clintl

If you're comparing how rookie RBs did this year, Joseph Addai had a pretty good season. Certainly better than Bush and Williams. (Bell, being an undrafted FA, is just plainly a steal for the Broncos.)

Forgot about both him and Norwood. Both did do fairly well. Maroney looks like a pretty good back as well.

It'll be interesting to see how all of these guys improve/decline next year. Gore had a decent rookie year and then exploded this year.

Carnell Williams went from great to crap and Ronnie Brown just kind of held serve. More carries, but he was pretty much the same runner. Time will tell.

Bush, Addai and Maroney will all have some playoff time to set the stage for next year.

[clintl]

Originally Posted by TroyF

It'll be interesting to see how all of these guys improve/decline next year. Gore had a decent rookie year and then exploded this year.

Gore might have exploded last year if Nolan hadn't started Kevan Barlow most of the season. He had a 4.8 YPC average as a rookie with that horrible offensive line (Barlow only managed a 3.3 YPC), and looked really good at the end of the season when he got a chance to start because Barlow was hurt. I think if he had been the starter all year, he would have put up some pretty impressive rookie stats.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Forgot about both him and Norwood. Both did do fairly well. Maroney looks like a pretty good back as well.

It'll be interesting to see how all of these guys improve/decline next year. Gore had a decent rookie year and then exploded this year.

Carnell Williams went from great to crap and Ronnie Brown just kind of held serve. More carries, but he was pretty much the same runner. Time will tell.

Bush, Addai and Maroney will all have some playoff time to set the stage for next year.

Yep, as Williams and Brown have shown that you can't really extrapolate future success based solely on the 1st year. That may have been a fluke or just everything coming together. A 2nd, and perferably a 3rd, season is necessary to find out just how good (or bad) these players are.

[Raiders Army]

Oh, this all stirred out of a debate between Bush and Jones-Drew. I figured Bush and Jones-Drew were in similar situations (neither was a starting QB but they both would see some significant action). My buddy thought Reggie Bush was the next coming of Superman. I thought he was overrated. The stats are somewhat misleading, however, since I believe the Saints are going into the playoffs and the Jags aren't.

[LloydLungs]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

The stats are somewhat misleading, however, since I believe the Saints are going into the playoffs and the Jags aren't.

The presence of Reggie Bush has had a tremendous impact on the Saints' offense, stats notwithstanding. Brees, McAllister, Colston et al do not have the kind of seasons they had without Bush in there, and the Saints wouldn't be in the playoffs without him.

[Eaglesfan27]

Exactly. Bush made defenses account for him constantly and that made everyone else's job easier. Bush is a huge part of the Saints' success and Bree's being the #1 QB in passing yards.

[clintl]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Exactly. Bush made defenses account for him constantly and that made everyone else's job easier. Bush is a huge part of the Saints' success and Bree's being the #1 QB in passing yards.

I'm not going to dispute that Bush's presence made things easier for the rest of the Saints' offense. But Brees was a Pro Bowl QB before he got to New Orleans. I suspect his abilities had something to do with New Orleans' success, too. He was a huge upgrade over Aaron Brooks.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by clintl

He was a huge upgrade over Aaron Brooks.

Easily the understatement of the year

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by clintl

I'm not going to dispute that Bush's presence made things easier for the rest of the Saints' offense. But Brees was a Pro Bowl QB before he got to New Orleans. I suspect his abilities had something to do with New Orleans' success, too. He was a huge upgrade over Aaron Brooks.

I don't doubt that, but he never threw for over 3600 yards before this season. This season he passed for over 4400 yards despite not playing even a quarter in the last game. I'm not saying Brees isn't a very good QB, he obviously is. Sean Payton also had a lot to do with the Saints' success. However, I watched every Saints' game this year and there were many plays where defenses overshifted to cover Bush and left other guys more open. Also, Bush was a tremendous outlet option as his high number of receptions indicates. The stats just don't tell the whole story of Bush's effect on this team.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

I don't doubt that, but he never threw for over 3600 yards before this season. This season he passed for over 4400 yards despite not playing even a quarter in the last game. I'm not saying Brees isn't a very good QB, he obviously is. Sean Payton also had a lot to do with the Saints' success. However, I watched every Saints' game this year and there were many plays where defenses overshifted to cover Bush and left other guys more open. Also, Bush was a tremendous outlet option as his high number of receptions indicates. The stats just don't tell the whole story of Bush's effect on this team.

I'm gonna dispute this a little. On offense especially it irks me a little when people say that so-and-so drew attention and left other guys open. If someone is elite, then they're elite. There are no excuses for why they can't produce. I think Drew Brees had more of an impact than Reggie Bush. LaDanian Tomlinson could've used the excuse that defenses put eight men in the box against the Chargers and that's why he wasn't able to get 1,000 yards this season. He drew the defense towards him because he had an unproven QB. If that had happened people would say the same thing: he didn't produce because defenses shifted towards him.

The difference is that LT did produce. Elite players produce. Michael Vick, on the other hand, said that he did "his part". He didn't do his part at all. You can break all the records you want on the ground, but if a QB isn't able to pass in this day and age he didn't do his part. I don't think Reggie Bush should have any excuses as to why his YPC are pathetic. His longest run wasn't even over 20 yards.





That being said, Reggie Bush may very well be an elite player in the future. Also as I said above, he wins in the biggest stat column over the other rookie RBs: Wins.

[Warhammer]

Let's also not forget that San Diego doesn't exactly have great WRs. They have average ones at best. The two big targets in their receiving corps while Brees was there were Tomlinson and Gates. He goes to a team with some pretty good WRs and produces excellent numbers. Not only that, but the entire New Orleans offense played better this year. I don't attribute that entirely to Bush, because he certainly sat out a fair amount of plays but the offense kept clicking because Brees was still in there.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

I don't doubt that, but he never threw for over 3600 yards before this season. This season he passed for over 4400 yards despite not playing even a quarter in the last game. I'm not saying Brees isn't a very good QB, he obviously is. Sean Payton also had a lot to do with the Saints' success. However, I watched every Saints' game this year and there were many plays where defenses overshifted to cover Bush and left other guys more open. Also, Bush was a tremendous outlet option as his high number of receptions indicates. The stats just don't tell the whole story of Bush's effect on this team.

Yes he did. He did that every season he played in college. You need to look at the team Brees was playing on last year. Martyball doesn't account for a QB to throw for much more then 3500 yards. Brees was never allowed to open it up with SD as he did game after game with Purdue.

(I'm a Charger fan, and a big Brees fan from when he was at Purdue, but not a Purdue fan).

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by dangarion

Yes he did. He did that every season he played in college. You need to look at the team Brees was playing on last year. Martyball doesn't account for a QB to throw for much more then 3500 yards. Brees was never allowed to open it up with SD as he did game after game with Purdue.

(I'm a Charger fan, and a big Brees fan from when he was at Purdue, but not a Purdue fan).

Ok, he never did it as a pro. I think we can all agree that there are big difference between stats in college and stats in the pros.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

Ok, he never did it as a pro. I think we can all agree that there are big difference between stats in college and stats in the pros.

Yes I know. I was just playing with you regarding that comment. But Brees never did get the chance when he had Marty.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by dangarion

Yes I know. I was just playing with you regarding that comment. But Brees never did get the chance when he had Marty.

And I accept that Marty has a reputation as a conservative coach, but he certainly hasn't looked that conservative this year in some of the games in which he has unleashed Rivers. That being said, I'm not trying to take anything away from Brees. I think he is a very good QB. I'm just making the point that in my opinion Reggie has had the most impact of any of the three rookies being compared and that his impact cannot be measured strictly by stats such as yards/dollar.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

And I accept that Marty has a reputation as a conservative coach, but he certainly hasn't looked that conservative this year in some of the games in which he has unleashed Rivers. That being said, I'm not trying to take anything away from Brees. I think he is a very good QB. I'm just making the point that in my opinion Reggie has had the most impact of any of the three rookies being compared and that his impact cannot be measured strictly by stats such as yards/dollar.

And I agree with you, I'm a huge Reggie Bush fan (Go USC). But the Saints also have had the most change on offense since last season. So it's hard to quantify how much Bush really had to do with it. When a team brings in a new QB a lot can happen, especially if previously had Aaron Brooks. But having to make teams account for Bush surely has made an impact and made Brees' job easier.

[rkmsuf]

Fiction!

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

Fiction!

You sir are a true sage.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by wade moore

You sir are a true sage.

My prediction must have been delayed by getting lost in all the tubes.