Kentucky Derby

[Blade6119]

tick tock, tick tock. Whos calling it?

[QuikSand]

My trifecta:

BARBARO
POINT DETERMINED
STEPPENWOLFER

Also in my betting: BOB AND JOHN, LAWYER RON, AP WARRIOR, SWEETNORTHERSAINT, SHARP HUMOR, STORM TREASURE

With the favorite BROTHER DEREK up the track in about 15th place.

[B & B]

Put my play in just a few hours ago.

Horses - 2006 Kentucky Derby
Odds to win
Odds to win the 2006 Kentucky Derby
Sweetnorthernsaint (+745)

2 dollars wins almost 15, I would have played it for 3 at +800, but my book took the lines down while I was attempting to play. Im guessing when the first race at Churchill started this morning they dropped the NSRB and went all action. As it is, I only had that number at the one place and +7s across the board elsewhere. Probably gonna end up saving me a hundy on the outcome. Barbaro is a good bet also.

[QuikSand]

Hmmmm... I'd be surprised if SNS goes off at less than 10-1 at post time (equivalent to +1100). Not sure where you got the +745, but I'll be looking for better at my nearest OTB location.

[QuikSand]

I need to take that back, it seems.

Early betting has SWEETNORTHERNSAINT down to 6-1, as it seems he is picking up a good deal of "wise guy" money. I am surprised to see LAWYER RON up as high as 10-1... that looks like a big overlay to me.

I'll try to format this:

Horse   	Jockey   	Odds   	ML Odds   	Win   	Place   	Show
1 Jazil 	Jara, Fernando 	20 	30 	142515 	55037 	46839
2 Steppenwolfer 	Albarado, Robb 	14 	30 	196122 	79513 	76467
3 Keyed Entry 	Valenzuela, Pa 	35 	30 	74129 	23147 	21133
4 Sinister Minister 	Espinoza, Vict 	8 	12 	313228 	108096 	85578
5 Point Determined 	Bejarano, Rafa 	8 	12 	321222 	117218 	82871
6 Showing Up 	Velasquez, Cor 	25 	20 	109649 	36999 	31363
7 Bob And John 	Gomez, Garrett 	10 	12 	256636 	92084 	71445
8 Barbaro 	Prado, Edgar 	6 	4 	402918 	126862 	89625
9 Sharp Humor 	Guidry, Mark 	30 	20 	94265 	34103 	28867
10 A. P. Warrior 	Nakatani, Core 	14 	15 	198141 	68579 	51934
11 Sweetnorthernsaint 	Desormeaux, Ke 	6 	10 	396841 	138579 	100463
12 Private Vow 	Bridgmohan, Sh 	35 	50 	77956 	25532 	23336
13 Bluegrass Cat 	Dominguez, Ram 	25 	30 	109679 	36909 	34509
14 Deputy Glitters 	Lezcano, Jose 	70 	50 	39556 	9378 	10550
15 Seaside Retreat 	Husbands, Patr 	50 	50 	56849 	15964 	19083
16 Cause To Believe 	Baze, Russell 	25 	50 	112846 	41087 	42348
17 Lawyer Ron 	Mckee, John 	10 	4 	272394 	84647 	61439
18 Brother Derek 	Solis, Alex 	10 	3 	267604 	74546 	56074
19 Storm Treasure 	Flores, David 	50 	50 	53238 	16160 	17264
20 Flashy Bull 	Smith, Mike 	35 	50 	74529 	22979 	26345

[QuikSand]

I have tossed out BROTHER DEREK myself, but I'm shocked to see him at 10-1 in the early betting, which is often a decent indication of where the money really will fall. I still don't think 10-1 is high enough, but he's been on a very impressive run to be at sich high odds... even higher than POINT DETERMINED?

[QuikSand]

Not to beat this to death, but the exacta of BARBARO with LAWYER RON, which I might rate as my single most likely 1-2 order, is paying a pretty handsome $125.60 for a $2 bet. Probably won't drop below $100.

[QuikSand]

Link for real time odds:

http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing..._time_odds/?10

[QuikSand]

It seems to me like the early money is being driven heavily by speed figures (rather than results, earnings, class, bloodlines, etc.) Both SWEETNORTHERNSAINT and SINISTER MINISTER have earned big figures in recent races, when they went unchallenged on early leads. Right now, that's the best explanation I have for why those two have seen their odds plunge like they have.

I have respect for figures, but I'm not wild about ones that arise from such unencumbered situations. I threw out BELLAMY ROAD last year (wisely) efter he posted an eye-popping win in the Wood... I'm inclined to do the same with SINISTER MINISTER this year after his win on the speed-favoring track at Keeneland. I think SNS has some class, but I'm not wild about him after he's been pounded down to 6-1. At that price, I'd rather just have the horse I think is best overall, and that's BARBARO.

If the favorite eventually goes off at 6-1, that would be the highest priced favorite in a long time, I think.

[ISiddiqui]

I saw Sinister Minister in his last race before the Derby (that he won wire to wire). He showed great speed, and maybe plunging odds are because the track seems fast? Even then, though, there doesn't seem to be any way he's going to keep up that fast pace all the way aroun in the Derby

[lynchjm24]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Not to beat this to death, but the exacta of BARBARO with LAWYER RON, which I might rate as my single most likely 1-2 order, is paying a pretty handsome $125.60 for a $2 bet. Probably won't drop below $100.

I'm stealing your picks. I haven't had time to follow things very closely. I might stick AP Warrior in some exacta boxes for kicks as well. I just like his name.

[lynchjm24]

Just eyeballing the odds.. is it worth playing a sizable win bet in this race? It looks like you'd be better off with a $5 exacta key over a $100 win bet. The live odds aren't working well on my computer, but it looks like there is some serious upside in the exacta pool.

[Franklinnoble]

I like Sinister Minister. My wife likes AP Warrior. She's better at picking horses than I am...

[Logan]

Put me down for Steppenwolfer just for the name.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by lynchjm24

Just eyeballing the odds.. is it worth playing a sizable win bet in this race? It looks like you'd be better off with a $5 exacta key over a $100 win bet. The live odds aren't working well on my computer, but it looks like there is some serious upside in the exacta pool.

My money's already down, so I'm not studying closely, but there are always certain places where this makes sense. ALways come horses where a exacta X-with-all is a better bet than betting X to win, and some vice versa. I haven't looked in detail here to see who is overrepresented in the win pool... but my guess is it might be the surprise underlays like SINISTER MINISTER and SWEETNORTHERNSAINT (that they'd be better plays in the exacta pool).

[Dutch]

How well do you some of the experts around here know these horses prior to the Kentucky Derby?

[QuikSand]

If you are interested in this sort of thing, there's pretty good coverage of all the "prep" races for aspiring three year olds, starting in February. (Actually, even back in the fall for the then-two-year-olds) As the prep season goes on, you get to see them all at least a couple of times, and get a sense of them pretty well. Plus, if you follow it, you can study the breeding and training styles to get a flavor of what to expect from them come the first Saturday in May.

[QuikSand]

Incidentally, I have had BARBARO atop my Derby picks list since his first win this year, in early February. I love his running style generally, and I love the heart he showed in the Florida Debry five weeks ago.

[Franklinnoble]

Yeah, Barbaro is a solid contender. Hell, any one of ten of these horses could win, and wouldn't surprise me. Best Derby field I've seen in years.

[jbmagic]

trifecta

That seems like its really hard to do. You have to get all three horses to finish in that order?

How much you get if you get it correct?

[Glengoyne]

I'm going with with exacta boxes

with Barbaro and SweetNorthernSaint

and a trifecta those two plus Cause to Believe.

I've made huge bank at the track, well for me in any case, just betting Russell Baze race after race. So I had to get his horse in there.

I'm thinking Bob and John as well as AP Warrior look good to box with Barbaro as well.

Too bad I'm no where near a track today.

[Buccaneer]

According to cbs sportsline, it's a 6:04 posttime. Shouldn't they have already run?

[Young Drachma]

Wow...he flew

[Young Drachma]

What's with making her do an in-horse interview. Though, I guess that's impressive.

[Blade6119]

great run for barbero...i placed one bet, on him to win...thank you barbero

[QuikSand]

Once again, a Storm Cat gets in the way of an otherwise impressive ticket for me... but I had the top right, and my win bet made a very solid day of it.

[ISiddiqui]

What a GREAT race run by Barbaro . Great story for his trainer, who has a Derby win to go with his Gold Medals.

[QuikSand]

That was a very solid, impressive race, I thought -- Prado played it perfectly, as he saw that the outside speed wasn't going to work all that hard to get up toward the lead (for fear of being sent out too wide), so he had a great shot to land the garden spot right behind the two leaders. When they both yielded (and while Barbaro's move to the front wasn't all that dramatic from the standard view, watching the overhead reply makes it look a good deal better) he had it all clear ahead... I haven't seen any analysis of what happened back in the pack after that point, but at the top of the stretch the top spot on the ticket was absolutely cinched. Prado was the right man for the job, and I'm thrilled to see him land a Derby. Hopefully the first of many.

Even money in two weeks, perhaps?

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Nice picks QS. 2 of 3, and the winner. Too bad about losing the tri. I should get tips from you.

[Franklinnoble]

Funny... my wife watched the post parade and said "A.P Warrior looks bound up in the rear. I don't like him anymore." He finished like 18th. She also mentioned that Barbaro "Looks like he's ready to work - he could win this race if he gets a good trip."

And, dammit... I couldn't log on to youbet.com fast enough.

[duckman]

That was an easy $55 made today.

[QuikSand]

So, BLUEGRASS CAT... a fine example of how tough this game is to get right.

Back in February, he won pretty impressively at Tampa Bay Downs - making him 4 for 4 on his career with a graded stakes win at 2yo, and made himself one of the major players for the Derby. A few weeks later, he was a heavy favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby - and was inexplicably unable to catch DEPUTY GLITTERS and settled for second place. This moved him far down in many people's estimation, but he did post a pretty impressive speed figure for the race, suggesting that getting beaten "by nobody" might not have been so bad there. Then, he goes out against a fairly tough field in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, and like everyone else watched as SINISTER MINISTER ran away on an uncontested lead (always dangerous at that track)... and ended up in an uninspiring 4th place, more than 202 lengths back. Through these three races, he basically leapt up to top-tier contender... then earned a big chink in the armor... and then became a near afterthought for most everyone.

Yesterday (I still haven't see the tape in enough detail to watch the action back in the pack) he ran well enough to pull past all but the winner, and grab the second spot on the winning ticket at pretty hefty odds. I confess that I really lost any faith in him when I saw him unable to win in the TB Derby (as I didn't think the Glitterman colt was anything but cheap speed) and pretty much dumped him from my considerations that early. Alas - wrong again, and he was the only horse in the eventual superfecta that I didn't use (I even got JAZIL in there for the fourth spot in my final ticket).

I have a lot of stories of big ticket near-misses, and more than their fair share end up with progeny of the greatest standing sire STORM CAT ruining my plans. Once again, it happens here.

[Senator]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So, BLUEGRASS CAT... a fine example of how tough this game is to get right.

Back in February, he won pretty impressively at Tampa Bay Downs - making him 4 for 4 on his career with a graded stakes win at 2yo, and made himself one of the major players for the Derby. A few weeks later, he was a heavy favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby - and was inexplicably unable to catch DEPUTY GLITTERS and settled for second place. This moved him far down in many people's estimation, but he did post a pretty impressive speed figure for the race, suggesting that getting beaten "by nobody" might not have been so bad there. Then, he goes out against a fairly tough field in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, and like everyone else watched as SINISTER MINISTER ran away on an uncontested lead (always dangerous at that track)... and ended up in an uninspiring 4th place, more than 202 lengths back. Through these three races, he basically leapt up to top-tier contender... then earned a big chink in the armor... and then became a near afterthought for most everyone.

Yesterday (I still haven't see the tape in enough detail to watch the action back in the pack) he ran well enough to pull past all but the winner, and grab the second spot on the winning ticket at pretty hefty odds. I confess that I really lost any faith in him when I saw him unable to win in the TB Derby (as I didn't think the Glitterman colt was anything but cheap speed) and pretty much dumped him from my considerations that early. Alas - wrong again, and he was the only horse in the eventual superfecta that I didn't use (I even got JAZIL in there for the fourth spot in my final ticket).

I have a lot of stories of big ticket near-misses, and more than their fair share end up with progeny of the greatest standing sire STORM CAT ruining my plans. Once again, it happens here.

Quiksand,

This year I also have the yowl of the eternal, "why"! I didn't bet any single bets, and had all exotics. Why? The payouts were potentially out of this world. I had BARBARO keyed on top of my exactas, trifectas, and superfecta. Then I wheeled the horses who got 3rd, 4th, 4th (deadheat) behind him. The fly in the payout ointment, BLUEGRASS CAT, who I never gave much chance to be in the money.

It is always strange to look at a ticket, see the numbers of the horses you picked all coming in, especially the winner keyed at the top, and know the ticket is worthless.

I think this is the first year in a decade I haven't cashed a ticket, but I forgot my dads standing rule. If you like a horse enough to key him as the winner of every exotic ticket you make, you might as well bet a 20 on him to win as well.

[lynchjm24]

I had 8-11-2. So close to a good payday. Thanks for the pick QS.

[Buccaneer]

202 lengths back

Not a typo? Being in 4th and 202 lengths back? Did the lead horse lap the field of something?

[SirFozzie]

that's probably 20 2/3's

[MikeVic]

I started watching and betting on horse racing last summer, and will continue this summer as well. There was something nice about going on a warm and sunny Sunday afternoon to watch actual horses race. The food was cheap, and a minimum bet of $2 is really small.

I'm obviously not in this for the money, but I find it fun and very cheap compared to other outings.

[Shkspr]

Is Andrew Beyer still a relevant name in racing journalism? I noticed that he is gushing like a schoolgirl over Barbaro in this morning's Post (though he didn't think Barbaro was going to win Saturday morning). He's throwing aroung John Henry and Secretariat.

[rkmsuf]

Beyer had him as one of 3 contenders. Haven't seen the number on the race but I was ultra impressed watching it. I thought the winner was way too close to the pace but it mattered little.

Long way to go but based on that run I can see the superstar speculation.

[Franklinnoble]

Meh... the last several years, we've had horses win the Derby and Preakness, and I get all excited that I'm going to see a Triple Crown winner, and then the Belmont breaks them... that beautiful, magnificent, mile-and-a-half bastard of a race that really separates the great ones from the good ones.

Barbaro hasn't lost yet, but he hasn't raced much yet, either. There's nothing in his history that says he can win three brutal races in five weeks. So, I'm gonna wait until June 11 to pass judgement on him. He had an impressive win in the Derby - but the Derby has become a crowded mess with the victor usually being a good horse with the lucky trip. I'm not saying Barbaro can't be great - but I also think it's rediculous to start comparing any Derby winner to a triple-crown winner this soon.

[rkmsuf]

When is there ever anything in a 3 year old's pp to suggest he's a shoe in the win the 3 races in 5 weeks?

Nobody has passed judgement but it's perfectly resonable to be encouraged that he is the real deal. His style is perfectly suited to be very, very effective.

I'm far more impressed with him than Charasmatic, Funny Cide or Real Quiet.

The one that really got me was Silver Charm. I loved that horse. Just ran into a tough customer in Touch Gold in the Belmont.

[rkmsuf]

Dola, for some reason I think the Preakness will be his toughest test. I can see someone wiring him in two weeks if Prado gets cute combined with 2nd back off a little layoff with a big number in the Derby.

[Franklinnoble]

I dunno... I think Seattle Slew and Secretariat had better credentials at ths point than Barbaro has. But we'll see. He's gonna face fresh horses in the next two races, and like any Triple Crown chase, that's the big disadvantage.

Don't get me wrong - I'd love to see him do it. But I'm going to keep an even temper about it until he actually gets it done.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

I dunno... I think Seattle Slew and Secretariat had better credentials at ths point than Barbaro has. But we'll see. He's gonna face fresh horses in the next two races, and like any Triple Crown chase, that's the big disadvantage.

Don't get me wrong - I'd love to see him do it. But I'm going to keep an even temper about it until he actually gets it done.

I don't see what is controversial about saying he has a chance to someday be that type. Especially being effective on dirt and grass which was the major point.

The only horse I see beating him is a Sinister Minister type performance that smokes him on the front end and runs a big fig like the 116 in the Blue Grass.

Of course that's just based on what we've seen. It remains to be seen if he can string races together 2 weeks apart or can stay out of trouble. Thing almost fell leaving the gate in the Derby.

If he runs with the same cruising speed and then shows the same stamina in the next two he'll win the triple crown. Big if though but something to pull for.

It would be cool because it seems like the owners are fairly sporting and may take a big shot at races on the grass and in europe as well.

[Franklinnoble]

Yeah... I'm definately rooting for him, especially since it seems his connections might let him run for a while, instead of just cashing out and putting him to stud right away.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

When is there ever anything in a 3 year old's pp to suggest he's a shoo in the win the 3 races in 5 weeks?

Nobody has passed judgement but it's perfectly resonable to be encouraged that he is the real deal. His style is perfectly suited to be very, very effective.

I'm far more impressed with him than Charasmatic, Funny Cide or Real Quiet.

The one that really got me was Silver Charm. I loved that horse. Just ran into a tough customer in Touch Gold in the Belmont.

Agreed with 100% of the above.

I don't think we have had a Derby winner as well suited to win all three races since Silver Charm. If I have any reservation, it's BARBARO'S lack of a proven record on a short layoff, which he will get for the Preakness (2 weeks).

By the way, I haven't seen any indications of who is and is not aiming for the Preakness, but tuck away A.P. WARRIOR for the Belmont, assuming he sits out the Preakness and takes his shot there instead.

I'm changing my tune a bit, but if there's one horse I'm worried about for the Preakness, it's likely BROTHER DEREK, who showed more heart than I expected, and might like the Pimlico surface better than that at Churchill.

[Franklinnoble]

Umm... wasn't Charismatic on his way to winning the Triple Crown when his leg blew up just short of the wire in the Belmont?

[Franklinnoble]

Eh... nevermind... just checked... looks like he was already beaten, and his leg blew up just after the wire.. still, you have to wonder if maybe whatever caused it didn't slow him down that day...

[QuikSand]

We'll probably never know about CHARISMATIC (whether his unsoundness undermined an otherwise winning effort, or whether he was overexerting to maintain his effort and injured himself during the race)... but I'll confess that I didn't think he'd win the Preakness that year (my money was on MENIFEE, just like it was in the Derby) and I bet against him in the Belmont as well.

[Honolulu Blue]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I haven't seen any indications of who is and is not aiming for the Preakness, but tuck away A.P. WARRIOR for the Belmont, assuming he sits out the Preakness and takes his shot there instead.

According to two Daily Racing Form articles (here and here), the only probables from the Derby are BROTHER DEREK, SWEETNORTHERNSAINT, and LAWYER RON. BOB AND JOHN is possible.

BLUEGRASS CAT, STEPPENWOLFER, and JAZIL are out (for now) and aiming for the Belmont. SHOWING UP may show up next in a turf race.

Oh, and congratulations to the BARBARO team. Great race. Two more and he's an immortal. Good luck.