FOFC Highlander -- A Number Game for Today

[QuikSand]

Okay, I have an idea for a number game... we'll try this and see how it goes.

- - -

I'm going to use a random-number generator, to simulate flipping ten special coins, numbered from 1 to 10. For each of these deliberately unfair coins, it will have a 2/3 chance of coming up HEADS and a 1/3 chance of coming up TAILS.

To enter the contest, send me a PM with a title including a list of the numbered coins that you predict will come up HEADS. Separate them by commas, and put them in order, please -- so a valid entry would look something like this:

1,2,3,8

Your score will be equal to the number of coins you correctly predicted to come up HEADS, minus the number you predicted to come up HEADS that did not do so. A "net' score, if you will.

If you submitted the enry above, and the coins numbered 1,2,3, and 6 are the ones that come up HEADS, you'd get 3 points for the correct ones, minus one point for the incorrect one, resulting in a score of 2.

- - -

THE WINNER is the person who gets the highest net score. There can be only one.

If there is a tie for the win, I will randomly select one person from the winning list to be THE WINNER.

Everyone else is tied for last, there will be no recognition for second place or any other position. Having the same score as the winner but not winning the random draw places you exactly the same as the person who has the wort net score in the entire group.

- - -

Enter by PM, with your predictions IN THE TITLE. I will conduct the game toward the end of business today (around 4pm this afternoon my time) and post the results in this thread.

[wade moore]

snet.

[Chas in Cinti]

cheers

[BrianD]

I'm in.

[Abe Sargent]

In like Sin.


-Anxiety

[MIJB#19]

I'm with Stupid.

[cuervo72]

snet.

[Bad-example]

Will the winner get to cut off all the loser's heads with a sword?

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by Bad-example

Will the winner get to cut off all the loser's heads with a sword?

For the record, I endorse this idea.

[Ramzavail]

scent

[kingfc22]

sent

[QuikSand]

I'll probably start gathering these up shortly... last call for entries.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I'll probably start gathering...

I'm almost sorry to continue harping on this (well, no, I'm really not), but the above words disturb me.

He's data mining.

[QuikSand]

Ready your blade, Pumpy.

[KevinNU7]

[QuikSand]

Highlander - Number Game #1


My thinking here was to try to leverage the concept that only one person could win this game, and couple that with a slightly challenging mathematical concept – and try to turn it into a game that might have better legs than the “median number” game from some years ago.

In theory, the best answer is 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 – since each number has a 2/3 chance of coming up HEADS, it doesn’t make sense to pick a specific number and forecast that it will go against that probability. That submission has the highest expected net score, in the long run.

However, there are two complicating factors here:

#1 – If ten people submit that exact entry, then your chance of being the one winner is only 1/10 of the chance that this is, in fact, the best entry received. So, the more popular this entry, the less likely any individual who submits it is going to be the winner. I thought that was a good twist.

#2 – The fact that you’re not really striving for the top expected score over the long run, but rather the very best score from among a (hopefully) substantial number of guesses during one trial ought to play into the game as well. I think that should encourage a number of people to try to “get lucky” and submit a winning ticket with six or seven numbers more or less randomly selected. (In fact, writing in advance of seeing the responses, I’m guessing that the majority will do this, even if it technically might not be the best approach)


So, with those two observations offered – here’s what we got with the submissions:


First – how many people would be unable to comply with the pretty clearly stated rules?

Three. Tough call whether to discard them. I’ll wait and see whether any turn out to be potential winners.


Second – how many people predicted all ten coins to come up HEADS?

9 out of the 18 received and considered.


Third -- how many HEADS did the other people predict?

It appears that the not-everything entries were huddled around the five, six, or seven out of ten range:

2 out of 10: 
3 out of 10: X
4 out of 10: X 
5 out of 10: XX
6 out of 10: XX
7 out of 10: XXX
8 out of 10: 
9 out of 10: 

So, now we know a bit about the thinking of the people who entered.


RESULTS:

The random number selection yielded the following coins up as HEADS:

2,3,4,5,7,9

So, the many people who entered all ten numbers received a net score of +2 – not bad, but not good enough to win. We had a handful do better than that.

The winner of the contest, with a net score of 4 is wbatl1 – the last entry received, incidentally. His entry of 2,5,7,9 hit four numbers correctly, and did not use any numbers that failed to come up. An interesting strategy.


wbatl1 – I will leave it up to you. If you like, you may continue the Highlander tradition, and offer up tomorrow a simple game that yields exactly one winner. If you like, it can be the exact same game as this. Or, If you prefer, I will run the contest again, and will decide what to do.

[wbatl1]

Wow, I really justed entered for the fun of it and didn't put much thought at all into it...shows that it really is a random game. Quiksand,I'll get back to you tonight via PM to tell you if I'll continue or if I give you the honors. It will depend on what I can come up with.

[QuikSand]

for random reasons, just stumbled onto this thread... this place was a wee bit different back then, eh?

[flere-imsaho]

Are you still waiting for the PM?

[QuikSand]

I'm sure he's just been busy

[DanGarion]

I was about to send in my answers, am I late...?

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I'm sure he's just been busy

To be fair, it's been a pretty eventful 2 decades.

[Passacaglia]

I miss old FOFC.