Play the GM: How much is Mark Mulder going to command next year?

[Double A]

Sitting here watching the Cards and Mulder in a pitching duel against the Mets (8.1 innings pitched, no runs and the win) and was curious what others predict Mulder will go for next year. After tonights game, he is 5-1 with an era in the 3.6 range. Most of you are familiar with the career bio...kid is a 28 year old left hander in his "prime" years...104-55 record...3.8ish era...1.3 WHIP...one of the most successful pitchers (win-wise) in the league since 2001. From the 30,000 foot level, this is bio material a team lusts for.

He has been Cardinal property since 2005, putting together a 16-win season last year that was far prettier to look at year-end stats then to sit through the majority of those games. Despite the good overall numbers, he was all over the place last season...mechanics shaky (at best)...shoulder not leading, thereby whipping pitches consistently outside (to RH batters) at diminshed velocities...strikeout ratios/game spiraling downward...wasn't a big game pitcher (IMO)...and confidence as shaky as the typical Blues goaltender. This year is a different story...mechanics look tight and appear much more similar to 2002-03 in Oakland...he's generally keeping the ball down although he has coughed up 8 gopher balls this year. I give Dave Duncan credit for the continued research into correcting his delivery and force feeding the sinker-ground ball mentality into him. His velocity is still unimpressive at best, if not alarming, to the average fan. He tops out at about 89 on the gun, with the vast majority of pitches along the lines of 86 or 87. And before I get a lecture on pitching, I grasp that the offspeed velocities are what make a pitcher successful...and his bender comes in at 68 mph, creating a 20 mph window of mixed pitches, thereby the success in his career. Just worth nothing that this kid is a soft tosser. Add in that he is hitting the ball better then Marquis this year and you've got another NL asset.

So, all of that said, what do you think he is worth? If history serves, the Cards will offer him 4 years, 42 Million, to which he will most probably laugh at and say thanks for the memories. Cards offered Burnett 4 for 40...thankfully he didn't take us up on that...but most Cards fans have a feeling they won't go much higher then that enchelon. Rolen and Pujols have long term big salaries and Carp, while underpaid, is still a chunk...Edmonds has an option for 10M that they probably won't pick up...hotstove league will be fun after this season.

Cards have tough choices overall among their starting rotation, as Carpenter is the only one locked up for 2007.

Suppan...31...historically a value at $4M
Marquis...27...arbitration salaried around $5M...headcase...but potential there
Ponson...29...$1M plus incentives...good risk/reward
Mulder...28... $7.75M...last year of Oak contract...
Carpenter...31...5M this year...8 next year

Who stays, who goes...? My take...provided Mulder continues down this road of an improved season...18+ win season...offer him 4 years at $13.5M w/ no trade clause and point to an adoring Cardinal Nation stuffed to the gills with overly friendly midwesterners who don't boo unless you totally stink the place up. If he blows that off, let him walk, lock Carpenter up longterm with an extension for 4 years and try to ink Suppan (relatively cheap pitcher/teacher for the youngsters) for another 2 years at around 5M. Offer Marquis 7M for 3 years right now and if he blows that off, trade him at the deadline this year. Ponson will probably be a 14-game winner this year and most likely indebted to StL for resurrecting his career...offer tubby 2 years, 4M and see if he bites. Regardless of how all of that ends up, young studs Adam Wainright and Anthony Reyes should have slots no questions asked, although TLR takes to rookies like the Rams take to defense. Either way, winds of change are blowing in Cardinal Nation...just curious what the FOFC baseball crowd thinks from a GM perspective.

Pujols 2006: .342/52 HRs/141 RBIs/127 R

Joe Buck: "Mike, the Cardinals would like to welcome a group of 19 French foreign exchange students in section 382 today."
Mike Shannon: "Where they from Joe?"
Joe Buck: "Uhhh... France... I think."

[Jake Plummer]

So, all of that said, what do you think he is worth?

Great question... that's exactly the same question Billy Beane was asking himself when he decided to trade Mulder to the Cards to begin with. You've got to start by checking out what other starting pitchers may hit the free agent market for 2007...

Wade Miller
Jeff Weaver
Gil Meche
Jose Contreras
Greg Maddux
Jason Schmidt
Woody Williams
Kerry Wood (mutual option)
Mike Mussina (team option)
Kelvim Escobar
Orlando Hernandez
Jaret Wright
Tom Glavine
Andy Pettitte
Barry Zito
Mark Buerhle

Not really sure how accurate these free agents are... I pulled this off a website and haven't been able to verify if these players are all indeed free agents, so don't quote me on this.

Anyways, I'd probably put Mulder right at the top of the list, right next to Zito, Buerhle, and Contreras as far as multi-year contracts go. I would put Pettitte, Glavine, Mussina, and Maddux in the one or two-year contract category (but in this age of so-called "over the hill" pitchers still pitching into their 40's, who knows).

Long story short, Mulder is pretty much cream of the crop. IMO he should command about a 5-year, $60 million contract. But as the A's showed, your money may be better spent on position players... just get your arms from your minor league system. I know, easier said than done, but the A's have been doing it for years.

So, your question was how much is he worth. I wouldn't pay him more than $10 mil a year... but he's going to make much more than that on the open market.

[Vince]

I think Schmidt has a pretty big case for top tier, if he continues his current pace this year. He had an off year last season, but he was injured. If you don't include last year, his last three seasons have been:

2006: 3-2, 3.20 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 42 K, 21 BB
2004: 18-7, 3.20 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 251 K, 77 BB
2003: 17-5, 2.34 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 208 K, 48 BB
2002: 13-8, 3.45 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 196 K, 73 BB

For reference, last year was pretty ugly, but like I said, he was injured. If he can put together a solid year, I think many people will be happy to overlook 2005 (12-7, 4.40 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 165 K, 85 BB).

[Thomkal]

I think the Cards will certainly attempt to resign Mulder. Neither Marquis or Suppan have shown consistent talent in their Cardinal careers, so I think they may part ways with them and try to get some cheaper options to make up for the Mulder signing. If Ponson returns from his injury and continues to pitch like he has, I could see the Cards resigning him.

From what I've read, Anthony Reyes looks like he's going to be a good pitcher. Many preseason publications had him making the rotation from spring training. Wainwright has been impressive too. So I don't think there's a strong need to resign Marquis and/or Suppan at this point.

[Terps]

I'd think he'll get around what Burnett got.

[sterlingice]

Ooh. Another fun baseball thread.

First off, I'm with Vince. Despite carrying an "overworked" tag with him, Schmidt is a really nice pitcher. A couple of years ago, he was an ace, but, really, he's one of those guys on that tier below. Aside from the injury last year, he's been the one constant you can count on out of the Giants rotation every year.

But that's the same case with all of those guys- Buehrle, Contreras (I think he already got an extension at the start of the season), Mulder, Zito, and, if he keeps healthy, Escobar. They've all got some question marks they're mostly #2's or #1's on teams without an ace. For the record, I'd rank them Buehrle, Schmidt, Mulder, Zito, Escobar.

As for what Mulder will command, it's going to depend on if he does something really nice in the postseason to really bump his price (see: Beltran, Carlos), if he gets injured along the way, and if he keeps his performance up this year (and most guys in their contract year do). Not to mention if some teams start getting loopy with contract offers (see: Burnett, AJ).

Put that all together, and I could see him possibly sticking around for something between 4/$40 if he likes the town. If not, you're probably looking at 4/$50 to 5/$65- it's a pretty big range.

Then again, I don't know who his agent is. If it's Boras- it doesn't matter. He likely won't be coming back as Boras would rather take an extra $500K for his client (in the best interest of the client, I'm sure) than go to a good situation.

SI

[Crapshoot]

5 - 65 - at the min. Remember, baseball has an increases cash flow like there's no tomorrow due to the new ESPN deals, and MLB advanced media - salaries are going to keep picking up. Mulder has the "no 1" halo around him - and a team like a Detroit or an Anaheim is going to put 5-70 on the board. Results subject to change if MLB doesn't negotiate a new national TV deal soon.

[stevew]

With teams having quite a bit of money to spend, Mulder would be silly to take a deal less than 60/5 at this point. Unless he's planning on tweaking his elbow, or freebasing crack. There are several teams that will think they are one guy away, and spend. Plus there's always the Yankees.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by stevew

With teams having quite a bit of money to spend, Mulder would be silly to take a deal less than 60/5 at this point. Unless he's planning on tweaking his elbow, or freebasing crack. There are several teams that will think they are one guy away, and spend. Plus there's always the Yankees.

The last sentance should always be considered in these type of decisions. The Yanks are going to go on the prowl for starting pitchers and will probably offer Mulder 5/$70mil. If he doesn't care about pitching in NY, it'll be hard to beat the Yankees to him, unless they try to focus on Buehrle. Though no one says they can't do both.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

The last sentance should always be considered in these type of decisions. The Yanks are going to go on the prowl for starting pitchers and will probably offer Mulder 5/$70mil. If he doesn't care about pitching in NY, it'll be hard to beat the Yankees to him, unless they try to focus on Buehrle. Though no one says they can't do both.

If they can move a bit of salary out, I could easily see the Phillies making a major play for him as well. They've coveted a #1 starter for a long time, adding Mulder to a rotation with Myers/Leiber/Hamels and whomever is the #5makes their staff quite potent.

[rewissick]

I believe Buerhle has a team option for '07, and even if the ChiSox don't pick up the option they'll work out an extension.

As for Mulder, I wouldn't be surprised by a 60/5 contract, but I'd hate to be the team that gives it to him. He's had declining strike-out rates and increasing BB rates for the last few years. I don't know if I'd throw him into the top-tier of pitchers anymore. I certainly don't think he's an 'Ace', but he is very, very good. I think he'll get the money more on preceived value. Of course, I always think it's a bad idea to commit to a pitcher for more than 3 years.

Looking up some comps for him, and Pettitte is his #1 on a few lists. That seems pretty fair to me. They both should command a ton of money.

[tarcone]

cards need to dump marquis...he left atlanta because he doesnt listen, thinks he knows how to pitch
ponson getting hurt could be a blessing for the cards...should allow them to resign him pretty cheap, plus they get a discount for taking a chance on him..keep him
suppan would resign fairly cheap... keep him
mulder is the tough one....ive seen him pitch this season and have nopt been real impressed....he would be vastly overpaid at 13.5 mil a year.....so good bye to mulder
cards have 2 young pitchers who could be ready to go next season....reyes and wainwright....one or both can fill out the rotation and allow the cards to go out and get the new outfield they need.
The outfield situation is the achilles tendon of the cards this season.....edmonds in last season, LF is shaky and lacks power, and dont get me started on encarcion....biggest waste of money EVER....3 yrs 15 mil....5 mil a season for that chump....stupid

[MizzouRah]

Must be nice to be a baseball pitcher.

I think the Cardinals go after Mulder pretty hard considering what they have.

They would have:

Carpenter
Mulder
Wainright
Reyes
Ponson

I think Marquis will be gone before the trade deadline for an outfielder and Suppan will probably sign elsewhere.

I just gave Mulder a 3 year extension in OOTP and he's 19-7 for me in 2007.

[DanGarion]

I say probably a 5 year 15 a year contract, so 75 mil.

[Subby]

I love you Double A.

[primelord]

Holy crap! It's a DA sighting!

I thought after what the Blues did this season you might just gone ahead and gouged your eyes out.

[Double A]

I think ISiddiqui is correct that Buehrle is under options with Chicago, for if he wasn't, I guarantee he would be St. Louis bound. That kid is a local product who continually pisses off the Chicago media with his "dream to play for the Cardinals" statements. Maybe the Cards should look ahead to his actual free agency year and have a little flexibility planned...he would probably take the home team discount and play for 8M/yr and a no-trade clause when the time comes.

Everyone wants to let Suppy go, but where else do you get a consistent 13-16 game winner who eats up 200+ innings every year in the range $4M and more importantly, knows how to pitch at this stage of his career. Class act...good example for young Reyes and Wainright...ink him for at least 2 more.

Primer: I know not of this NHL you speak. I did throw in a hockey nugget just for you guys at the beginning of this baseball thread. To say I've been in mourning is an understatment...absolutely atrocious to think what they've done to a Blues franchise that had the longest playoff streak in professional sports. And great timing...we couldn't have done this in 2004...godforbid we get a Kovalchuk or Crosby...but nooo, we pick the year the salary cap gets put in place and there was the biggest free agent free-for-all in NHL history...and our reward for all of this pain will be another 1st round defenseman (Johnson...it better be) that would've went 5th or 6th in last years draft. Regarding the absence...well, I've been domesticated with the family and now instead of trading smartass forum comments with Redwings fans, I coach 4 years old in t-ball and soccer...cut a lot of grass and keep the house from being enveloped by the woods...work community picnics, etc. Plus Fritz sent me a letter with an unknown powder substance in it and the wife freaked out...mandated the "no more FOBL/FOFC" rule.

Subby: Don't make me remind you of the restraining order. I have no disposable cash to spend on further legal fees.

[MizzouRah]

Yes indeed... better be Johnson.

[Cards4ever]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Yes indeed... better be Johnson.

Just as long as you let him play a year for the Gophers!

[Fritz]

Hey Double A!

[JS19]

This one should be real interesting come the off-season. The guy obviously sucks this yr, due to injury, but he still sucks. Any other yr hes the kind of guy who would command 15M plus a yr, but after a disaster of a season it should be interesting to see what teams are willing to offer. I'm sure a team (the yankees) will probably offer him the big money anyway. Anyone know if Boras is his agent?