Will there ever be another Triple Crown Winner (Horse Racing)?

[Schmidty]

I don't know very much at all about horse racing, but I'm seriously starting to think that it won't happen again. There seems to be more of a level playing field now as far as talent (or whatever you call it in racing).

Anyway, what do you experts out there think?

[bulletsponge]

yes, horse racing will fix the races soon to make horses win the first 2 to get viewers to watch the 3rd race. then the horse will luck out and win it

[RendeR]

It will happen again, and probably in the near future. Its been 28 years, we're due. horse racing has veyer little to do with a level playing field, its all about the breeding and training and, as we saw today, a huge amount of luck to avoid accidents and injuries.

It'll happen, have no doubt.

[Rizon]

No, never. At least not legitimately.

[JW]

I remember after Affirmed won in 1978, there had been three Triple Crown winners in the decade, including two in a row. Analysts were saying that henceforth Triple Crown winners would be common. Well, obviously they were wrong. But I think the dynamics haven't changed. These things seem to be somewhat cyclical.

Consider, these are the years for Triple Crown winners: 1919, 30, 37, 41, 43, 46, 48, 73, 77, 78. There seem to be a couple of gaps and a couple of periods when they were common.

But also consider that it is very common for a horse to win two legs of the Triple Crown. In fact this seems to be the most common occurrence in the Triple Crown. For example, in the 27 racing seasons since 1978 there have been 17 horses who have won two of the three races. There are many two-race winners before 1978.

Since it is common for horses to win two out of three of the races, I don't see why we should not have a Triple Crown winner in the next few years, though I know that staying fit and defeating all comers and having the luck to have the right weather for all races and lots of other factors still make it very hard for a horse to win all three races.

[QuikSand]

It's just a fluky thing -- it's tough to do, obviously, but it's not like it can't happen. We've had three or four horses in the last decade who, if they had just gotten one more break (on top of the ones who got them to two wins) could have done so -- Silver Charm, Point Given, and Charismatic certainly all had real shots at doing it. We'll never know about Barbaro, regrettably.

[Joe]

yes

[QuikSand]

And "ever" is an awfully long time.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

And "ever" is an awfully long time.

True.

Maybe I should have said "in the next few decades".

[SackAttack]

Barbaro isn't gonna be doing any more racing, but he's made it safely through the first step on the road to recovery.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...x.html?cnn=yes

Hopefully he can pull all the way through.

[clintl]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Silver Charm, Point Given, and Charismatic certainly all had real shots at doing it.

Smarty Jones didn't miss by much.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

It's just a fluky thing -- it's tough to do, obviously, but it's not like it can't happen. We've had three or four horses in the last decade who, if they had just gotten one more break (on top of the ones who got them to two wins) could have done so -- Silver Charm, Point Given, and Charismatic certainly all had real shots at doing it. We'll never know about Barbaro, regrettably.

And don't forget Afleet Alex last year. He finished 3rd at the Derby, but was pretty impressive in winning both the Preakness and Belmont (especially the Preakness). A break (or less speed horses setting the pace so fast) in the Derby, and he'd have gotten it.

[IwasHere]

Help, I can't seem to find that other Horse racing post that had FanklinNoble's crazy conspiracy theory in it.

Anyway, I listened all day for someone to report about the horse being injured before the race and never hear anything. Is FranklinNoble just seeing something that is not there or was the horse really limping before ever going into the chute?

[molson]

7 out of the last 10 years have involved a horse winning two of the legs - including Real Quiet, who missed the triple crown by about an inch. We could have easily had 3-4 in that time - it's pretty fluky that there's been such a gap.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by IwasHere

Help, I can't seem to find that other Horse racing post that had FanklinNoble's crazy conspiracy theory in it.

Anyway, I listened all day for someone to report about the horse being injured before the race and never hear anything. Is FranklinNoble just seeing something that is not there or was the horse really limping before ever going into the chute?

I think that thread got nuked.

[Swaggs]

I feel pretty confident that I will see it happen in my lifetime. Much more confident of seeing a Triple Crown Winner than, say, the Pittsburgh Pirates winning the World Series.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I feel pretty confident that I will see it happen in my lifetime. Much more confident of seeing a Triple Crown Winner than, say, the Pittsburgh Pirates winning the World Series.

Hey buddy, don't give up hope. Look at the Tigers this year. The torturous, horrific wait is well worth it when you make it to first place in May. Super.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Hey buddy, don't give up hope. Look at the Tigers this year. The torturous, horrific wait is well worth it when you make it to first place in May. Super.

I'm holding out hope that Mark Cuban will save us.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I'm holding out hope that Mark Cuban will save us.

Mark Cuban couldn't save Aunt Jemima from a falling maple tree any more than Uncle Ben could save Tattoo from drowning in a rice paddy.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by clintl

Smarty Jones didn't miss by much.

Smarty Jones was too small to really have a chance in the final race. Didnt stop people from hyping him though

Unless I have my horses mixed up

[Schmidty]

That was the greatest thing I have ever said. I should end it now. There is nothing left to hope for.

[Schmidty]

F you Kyle. Breaking my uber dola is so uncool.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Mark Cuban couldn't save Aunt Jemima from a falling maple tree any more than Uncle Ben could save Tattoo from drowning in a rice paddy.

Originally Posted by Schmidty

That was the greatest thing I have ever said. I should end it now. There is nothing left to hope for.

I have to agree. If that quote isn't justification for the return of the QOTM, I don't know what is.

[rkmsuf]

What happened to the Preakness thread?

My proclamation of Brother Derek sucking is gone.

[albionmoonlight]

Maybe not anytime soon--maybe not even in our lifetimes. But I think that the odds are in favor of having one before the Triple Crown ends.

[stevew]

Which will happen first....another Triple Crown winner in Baseball, or horse racing?

[clintl]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Smarty Jones was too small to really have a chance in the final race. Didnt stop people from hyping him though

Unless I have my horses mixed up

Smarty Jones lost the Belmont by 1 length, finishing second. That's not missing by much in my book, and certainly he had a chance.

[clintl]

Originally Posted by stevew

Which will happen first....another Triple Crown winner in Baseball, or horse racing?

Probably horse racing. It's happened more frequently in horse racing.

[Butter]

I wish I had put money on the winning horse in the Preakness. I picked it right, for once.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Mark Cuban couldn't save Aunt Jemima from a falling maple tree any more than Uncle Ben could save Tattoo from drowning in a rice paddy.

When I say "save," I mean make the Pirates win more than 81 games once every ten years.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by stevew

Which will happen first....another Triple Crown winner in Baseball, or horse racing?

Pujols.