North Korea to test ICBM?

[Galaril]

For some reason, I am more worried about this than in the past. It could be because my wife is in South Korea right now visiting family and won'tbe due to fly back until tomorrow or it could because I recently saw the movie" The Day After". Anyways, I am not a supporter of the current US admin but must say that this IS something to be comcerned about. The japanese say that if a test goes into there territory they will cosider that an attack, thus an attack of war. The US and Jpan are on alert status as we speak. What worries me most is this. The North test fires over Japan land the Japanese launch an attack on North Korea. The North Koreans attack Japan and US installations in Japan and Korea (South) The US attacks North korea. And than China tacks Korea and US Pacific Forces etc.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/06/13/nko...ion=cnn_latest

Citing a Japanese government source, the Sankei Shimbun is reporting that the North Korean government will address its people this evening via TV and radio.

The Yomiuri Shimbun, meanwhile, is reporting that U.S. officials have conveyed to Tokyo intelligence suggesting North Korea has begun fueling a missile for a possible test launch.

Other Japanese press report that through diplomatic channels in Beijing, Japan has warned North Korea against going through with a missile test.

Strangely enough, North Korea has apparently told a South Korean lawmaker that it has no plans to carry out a missile test.
That last thingworries me. Are they trying to ctach us at unawares?
Also:
Japan’s Kyodo News is reporting that if North Korea test launches a missile, the United States and Japan will deal with the matter in the UN Security Council. According to the report, the two will seek an expression of concern through either a chairman’s statement or a press statement. The United States is reportedly considering tabling a draft resolution with legally enforceable sanctions, but will likely avoid doing so due to almost certain Chinese objections.

Japanese Foreign Minister Aso Taro, meanwhile, has warned North Korea that if the missile lands in Japan, it would be regarded as an attack.

The Americans and Japanese are also stepping up their surveillance of North Korea. The US Navy has apparently deployed the missile range instrumentation ship Observation Island to Sasebo and an RC-135S to Kaneda. There are reports as well of American Aegis warships being deployed to the East Sea. There are also reports that Japan has deployed the Aegis destroyer Chokai from Sasebo to the East Sea. And according to the Sankei Simbun, Japan’s ultra-snazzy FPS-XX radar system has been put on a state of battle-readiness.

Here are some more info from other sources ie non-CNN:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,199821,00.html
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,199957,00.html

[albionmoonlight]

"Japanese Foreign Minister Aso Taro, meanwhile, has warned North Korea that if the missile lands in Japan, it would be regarded as an attack."

This does not strike me as unreasonable on Japan's part. If a country launches a missle and it lands in your territory, how could you regard it as anything other than an attack?

[Galaril]

I agree 100%.

[Galaxy]

Iraq, with Iran and North Korea pitching us. Not going to be a pretty next decade.

[sachmo71]

ask yourself what north korea gains by provoking anyone into a war. then relax.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Iraq, with Iran and North Korea pitching us. Not going to be a pretty next decade.

That's not what the executives over at Reuters and the AP are saying. There response was, "W00t!"

[Easy Mac]

Why are you worried about your wife, you said she was in South Korea. These are Inter-continental ballistic missiles, not intra-continental. She's safe man.

[DaddyTorgo]

the humerous part of me thinks we should just fly f-15's right outside of north korean airspace and shoot down the missle immediately once it leaves their airspace.

that wouldn't be against any international law would it? and it would be amusing as hell.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

the humerous part of me thinks we should just fly f-15's right outside of north korean airspace and shoot down the missle immediately once it leaves their airspace.

that wouldn't be against any international law would it? and it would be amusing as hell.

Not easy to shoot down a missile, and it would almost certainly provoke a war that might initially (before the US can get troops and its fleet over) allow the North Koreans to bombarb Seoul and cross the 38th parallel.

[DaddyTorgo]

i suppose you're right about the provoking part crapshoot, the image of it in my head was just extraordinarily amusing though.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i suppose you're right about the provoking part crapshoot, the image of it in my head was just extraordinarily amusing though.

Crapshoot says he is NOT in a joking mood today.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i suppose you're right about the provoking part crapshoot, the image of it in my head was just extraordinarily amusing though.

Oh, it would be hilarious at some level - but I don't think, by their own admission, the US army has the capacity to handle two large scale war efforts at a given time. And politically, the start of another war in North Korea would be a disaster - since North Korea isn't going to be quite the pushover Iraq was.

My favorite memory about NK is when I lived in Ethiopia - every two weeks, the NK embassy would take out full page ads in the one English newspaper proclaiming their studies suggesting they would crush the American and Korean imperialist scum, and with military scenarios where they would be in Seoul within 10 dys - it was hilarious, especially because one could imagine some people believed it.

[Passacaglia]

You'd think if North Korea had ICBMs, it would have been in those pictures.

[sachmo71]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Oh, it would be hilarious at some level - but I don't think, by their own admission, the US army has the capacity to handle two large scale war efforts at a given time. And politically, the start of another war in North Korea would be a disaster - since North Korea isn't going to be quite the pushover Iraq was.

My favorite memory about NK is when I lived in Ethiopia - every two weeks, the NK embassy would take out full page ads in the one English newspaper proclaiming their studies suggesting they would crush the American and Korean imperialist scum, and with military scenarios where they would be in Seoul within 10 dys - it was hilarious, especially because one could imagine some people believed it.

The North Korean Army would by WAYYYY past Seoul in ten days.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by sachmo71

The North Korean Army would by WAYYYY past Seoul in ten days.

Eh - I'm basing this of 8 year old memories - it may have been Seoul in 10 days, or the southern city (I forget the name). You think the US air campaign wouldn't stop the advancement until significantly later ?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by sachmo71

The North Korean Army would by WAYYYY past Seoul in ten days.

Yep.

Honestly, I don't understand why the heck we have troops in South Korea anyway. Just let China deal with that wacky continent. Everybody would be happier that way.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

Why are you worried about your wife, you said she was in South Korea. These are Inter-continental ballistic missiles, not intra-continental. She's safe man.

Mainly, I was more nervous with the Norks pummeling seoul with their 15,000 short range Frog Missiles and the like. Anyways, it appears to be much about nothing. I would assume cooler heads in China and the US would prevale in the end.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Eh - I'm basing this of 8 year old memories - it may have been Seoul in 10 days, or the southern city (I forget the name). You think the US air campaign wouldn't stop the advancement until significantly later ?

No I don't think so. First or second wave of missiles would take out alot of the Air Bases pretty fast in South Korea and Japan. In addition, they would hit our carrier based air craft as well. We have always planned to hold out for a week until re-enforcements arrived from Hawaii and Alaska. However with our current ability to quickly extend air power that number is more like 72 hours. Seoul and most everything north of the Han River would be under communist control bt then.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Yep.

Honestly, I don't understand why the heck we have troops in South Korea anyway. Just let China deal with that wacky continent. Everybody would be happier that way.

I agree. I don't really see what's in it for us to be in South Korea. If we left South Korea tommorrow, what is the worst thing that could happen? South Korea is invaded by North Korea? Okay. Who gives a shit? According to the news reports I've seen, the people of South Korea hate the US military presense, not North Korea.

We should leave.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Dutch

I agree. I don't really see what's in it for us to be in South Korea. If we left South Korea tommorrow, what is the worst thing that could happen? South Korea is invaded by North Korea? Okay. Who gives a shit? According to the news reports I've seen, the people of South Korea hate the US military presense, not North Korea.

We should leave.

I also, think it is acomplete utter waste of man power. Plus, South Koreans HATE with a capital H the US Military and they don't think much better about Americans, in general, to be honest.

[Galaxy]

I've always read that the older South Koreans want the presence, but the younger generation doesn't.

Also, is China and Japan on a hate relationship? What would that do to a war?

[Crapshoot]

The US ain't leaving South Korea soon - they don't want the Chinese influence expanding in the Asian sector, and the loss of a significant military asset in Asia makes no sense, given the larger strategic goals. Besides, both the South Korean and Japanese governments recognize that the US forces provide some level of a deterrent to the North.

[Galaxy]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13361343/

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Galaril

I also, think it is acomplete utter waste of man power. Plus, South Koreans HATE with a capital H the US Military and they don't think much better about Americans, in general, to be honest.

There ya go. And you have had plenty of first-hand experience with seeing that relationship, if I'm not mistaken.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by Dutch

I agree. I don't really see what's in it for us to be in South Korea. If we left South Korea tommorrow, what is the worst thing that could happen? South Korea is invaded by North Korea? Okay. Who gives a shit? According to the news reports I've seen, the people of South Korea hate the US military presense, not North Korea.

We should leave.

I still believe we have a duty to protect democratic countries and prevent the spread of whatever you would call the batshit nutballs running North Korea from spreading their influence.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

I still believe we have a duty to protect democratic countries and prevent the spread of whatever you would call the batshit nutballs running North Korea from spreading their influence.

i'd go ahead and just call them batshit nutballs at this point

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Also, is China and Japan on a hate relationship? What would that do to a war?

That would be the interesting part. If a war started in Korea, it would cause a lot of problems in that region.

[Galaxy]

Dola....Also saw that New Zealand and Australia back the US today.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Dola....Also saw that New Zealand and Australia back the US today.

As we tend to do.

War in Korea is inevitable and is a far bigger problem than Iraq ever was. If Asia explodes in to war it's going to get very ugly very fast.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

That would be the interesting part. If a war started in Korea, it would cause a lot of problems in that region.

Most likely situation is this:

A) North Korea attack Japan

B) Japan pummels North Korea with Support from the US (Japan-based Forces)

C) South Koreans stand by idly at least until Japan starts to really kick the Norths asses or......

D) The North Koreans go after US interests in Korea or the US (Korea-based Forces) go after the NORKS to help their ally Japan.

E) If this happens the South Koreans military will fracture into deserters say (30-40%), 30-40% fight against the US and Japan forces maybe even in concert with NORKS Forces and the remaining 30-40% will fight as intended against the North Koreans.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Most likely situation is this:

A) North Korea attack Japan

B) Japan pummels North Korea with Support from the US (Japan-based Forces)

C) South Koreans stand by idly at least until Japan starts to really kick the Norths asses or......

D) The North Koreans go after US interests in Korea or the US (Korea-based Forces) go after the NORKS to help their ally Japan.

E) If this happens the South Koreans military will fracture into deserters say (30-40%), 30-40% fight against the US and Japan forces maybe even in concert with NORKS Forces and the remaining 30-40% will fight as intended against the North Koreans.

Yeah, probably not far from the truth. Though what China does will probably be most interesting of all.

[Galaxy]

Just curious, why would North Korea attack Japan over South Korea first? I'm too up to date on the NK-Japan relations.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Just curious, why would North Korea attack Japan over South Korea first? I'm too up to date on the NK-Japan relations.

Same reason South Korea would rather attack Japan if the opportunity arose. They are historical antagonists for the last 1200 years or more. Koreans call themselves Minguk, it means "one race". Koreans are not concerned so much if they are a Northern or Southern (South koreans more so) but what is important is they are all Koreans. The division many now blame the US and USSR. so, since the USSR are gone it is just the USA.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Yeah, probably not far from the truth. Though what China does will probably be most interesting of all.

Oh, shit I forgot China. Yeah, I think as long as the US doesn't us Nukes, even tactical ones, bio weapons/chemical weapons ie mustard gas etc, or try to over run the whole country via the ground forces. The Chinese would never allow US bases along their border. Also, China has to think of the US as a major trading partner what is North Korea? Really, just a nuasance mostly. I often think the Chinese would invade or annex North Korea if they had anythng of value.

[Galaxy]

Do you see China going after Taiwan, Tibet, or Hong Kong (if they progress on pro-democratic movements) if Korea flares up?

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Galaxy

Do you see China going after Taiwan, Tibet, or Hong Kong (if they progress on pro-democratic movements) if Korea flares up?

That's what I was getting at. I think China will be out to grab as much as they can if an all-out-war situation arose. China is easily the biggest military danger in the region. North Korea are spooky, but when compared with what China could do...

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

That's what I was getting at. I think China will be out to grab as much as they can if an all-out-war situation arose. China is easily the biggest military danger in the region. North Korea are spooky, but when compared with what China could do...

That is certainly a possiblity. Tibet I am not so sure there is much interest from China, to be honest and Hong Kong already is China's for the most part. Taiwan they might take a shot at if they could work out a deal behind closed doors to make aswap Taiwan for North Korea. Personally I would make that deal in a second. We can withdraw most of our forces from South Korea and saving tons of money and it's a public relations bonus in Korea at least. The threat of North Korea and their Nukes technology transfer business to troublesome nations would be eliminated. It might help to improve ties with at leats Japan and South Korea but it might make them worse. Lastly, taiwan seems to be interested in rejoining China eventaully.

[st.cronin]

I wouldn't object a bit if China decided to annex the entire Korean peninsula.

[Franklinnoble]

China can't afford a war with the United States. It would be economic suicide. There might be some bluster, but not more than that.

I don't see how North Korea has anything to gain from going to war with anybody at this point. They would have no sympathy in the international community by going on the offensive, and it would make the United States everyone's best friend again.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

China can't afford a war with the United States. It would be economic suicide. There might be some bluster, but not more than that.

I don't see how North Korea has anything to gain from going to war with anybody at this point. They would have no sympathy in the international community by going on the offensive, and it would make the United States everyone's best friend again.

The United States can't afford a war with China, either.

North Korea may not have anything to gain from our perspective, but they certainly do from their own. Their people starve while the government uses all it's money to maintain it's massive military, all while their people are bombarded with propaganda both anti-USA and anti-South Korea. North Korea believes it's destiny is to control all of Korea, and one day it will try and make that happen. It may not seem logical or wise from our perspective, but we aren't looking at the situation through a lens of madness like North Korea's government is.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

The United States can't afford a war with China, either.

North Korea may not have anything to gain from our perspective, but they certainly do from their own. Their people starve while the government uses all it's money to maintain it's massive military, all while their people are bombarded with propaganda both anti-USA and anti-South Korea. North Korea believes it's destiny is to control all of Korea, and one day it will try and make that happen. It may not seem logical or wise from our perspective, but we aren't looking at the situation through a lens of madness like North Korea's government is.

Wal-Mart can always exploit another third-world country for cheap labor to make the junk for their stores. China will not be able to find another consumer like the USA. A war would hurt us financially, but it would utterly destroy them.

Besides, the Chinese navy is a joke. I don't think we'd be stupid enough to engage in a land war over there, and they have no feasible means to attack our soil (aside from the nuclear option, which, well, let's not go there).

I can't really comment on the insanity of Kim Jong Il and his cohorts. I'm guessing they're headed for a collapse similar to what happened to the Soviet Union, but maybe he's just crazy enough to push the button before it happens. Who knows? But my guess is that North Korea won't have a single ally in any war they start, and the United States won't have to do all the heavy lifting to put that dog down.

[Riggins44]

The Chinese will be our masters. Korea is just a puppet that China whips out for our amusement. Usually around the time that the term "trade deficit" is in the news. It's all a big joke. Learn Chinese soon.

Learn Chinese Online

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

Besides, the Chinese navy is a joke. I don't think we'd be stupid enough to engage in a land war over there, and they have no feasible means to attack our soil (aside from the nuclear option, which, well, let's not go there).

Well, I'm not talking about an actual attack on the US. More likely is China invading South Korea or elsewhere, forcing the US to either intervene or get the hell out of there. The issue is not about China and the US going to war on US soil, but about what sort of military action the US would take against China on Chinese/Korean soil.

If China attacked Japan it would really force the US, as well as the other allies, in to action, but an attack on Korea... maybe not quite so much.

I can't really comment on the insanity of Kim Jong Il and his cohorts. I'm guessing they're headed for a collapse similar to what happened to the Soviet Union, but maybe he's just crazy enough to push the button before it happens. Who knows? But my guess is that North Korea won't have a single ally in any war they start, and the United States won't have to do all the heavy lifting to put that dog down.

They won't have any allies, but an invasion of North Korea would be a terrible mess.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by Riggins44

The Chinese will be our masters. Korea is just a puppet that China whips out for our amusement. Usually around the time that the term "trade deficit" is in the news. It's all a big joke. Learn Chinese soon.

Learn Chinese Online

Fixed (subtle).

[Franklinnoble]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,200263,00.html

Rumored that the US may try to shoot down the missile.

[Surtt]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

China can't afford a war with the United States. It would be economic suicide. There might be some bluster, but not more than that.

Don't forget Tiananmen Square.
China will take enormous short term consequences for their long term goals.

[Franklinnoble]

Originally Posted by Surtt

Don't forget Tiananmen Square.
China will take enormous short term consequences for their long term goals.

In the grand scheme of things, Tiananment Square was nothing compared to going to war with the United States.

If they attack the US, there's gonna be regime change over there.

[sachmo71]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

As we tend to do.

War in Korea is inevitable and is a far bigger problem than Iraq ever was. If Asia explodes in to war it's going to get very ugly very fast.

Inevitable? I disagree strongly. All Kim wants is money and to win political battles. He wants to be known as a bad ass. He will not push this to a war.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by sachmo71

Inevitable? I disagree strongly. All Kim wants is money and to win political battles. He wants to be known as a bad ass. He will not push this to a war.

How do you explain how North Korea uses this money they want, then? Their people starve while Kim spends big on his military. That's their priority.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Franklinnoble

In the grand scheme of things, Tiananment Square was nothing compared to going to war with the United States.

If they attack the US, there's gonna be regime change over there.

Fun Fact: China is not Iraq. Don't let that footage of the US military "shock and awe"'ing it's way through Iraq's desert fool you. China has 281 million men fit for military service, compared to 55 million in the US, and China spends slightly more of their GDP on their military. Couple that with the fact that a war would take place on their soil and that the US is already stretched militarily and you've got an icky situation.

I'm not saying China would walk away clear victors - they'd probably lose in the long run, depending on which US allies joined the fray - but the US wouldn't just be driving tanks in to Beijing.