Cuba - what's next?

Edward64 · 07-31-2006, 09:04 PM

Larry King's guest is predicting Fidel's demise and his brother not able to keep Cuba status quo.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/americ...tro/index.html

There was a place and time for an embargo but think the past 10-20 years were from political interests (and spite).

Didn't like the guy, won't miss him ... hopefully I can visit Cuba as a tourist and get cigars legally and cheaper.

cartman · 07-31-2006, 09:14 PM

Cuba will be the 51st state within 5 years of Fidel being gone.

Edward64 · 08-01-2006, 05:40 PM

Didn't think about the 51st state. I'm not sure we want the responsibility, can you imagine the hassle of trying to integrate the population (ex. culture and more importantly the 'liabilities' of supporting the underclass).

Not alot of benefits other than sugar-cane but a ton of headaches.

Would prefer if we just invested heavily and made it a tourist mecca ala Godfather 2.

Klinglerware · 08-01-2006, 05:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64

Didn't think about the 51st state. I'm not sure we want the responsibility, can you imagine the hassle of trying to integrate the population (ex. culture and more importantly the 'liabilities' of supporting the underclass).

Not alot of benefits other than sugar-cane but a ton of headaches.

Would prefer if we just invested heavily and made it a tourist mecca ala Godfather 2.

All this presupposes that the US has the requisite influence to transform Cuba to its liking.

Most of the organized opposition to the Cuban goverment is centered around the exile community in the US. Most of the exiles are decendants of the highly educated elite who beat it out of Cuba after the revolution, leaving the poor people behind. Not sure how well these outsiders will be received, if they ever try to come back and take over.

You would probably see some electoral and human rights reform, but you would also still see the former communists dominating the government--much like what you see in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union today.

As for economic investment, I think the US will find it harder than they think it will be to break into Cuba. Thanks to the embargo, the Japanese, Canadians, and Europeans are way ahead the US in terms of investment in Cuba. No matter who is in charge in the coming years, I would still expect the Cubans to favor their pre-existing investment partners.

cartman · 08-01-2006, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64

Didn't think about the 51st state. I'm not sure we want the responsibility, can you imagine the hassle of trying to integrate the population (ex. culture and more importantly the 'liabilities' of supporting the underclass).

Not alot of benefits other than sugar-cane but a ton of headaches.

Would prefer if we just invested heavily and made it a tourist mecca ala Godfather 2.

It wouldn't be that difficult. Quite a few of the Cubans in Miami would move back and help with the integration. I'd say the culture of Southern Florida has more in common with Havana than it does the rest of the US. Even if it doesn't come to full statehood, it will definitely become more like Puerto Rico.

Klinglerware · 08-01-2006, 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64

hopefully I can visit Cuba as a tourist and get cigars legally and cheaper.

What's stopping you now? Take a flight out of Cancun or Montreal...

cartman · 08-01-2006, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Klinglerware

What's stopping you now? Take a flight out of Cancun or Montreal...

It's that legal part. It is now illegal for a US citizen to possess, much less smoke, a Cuban cigar, no matter where in the world they are located. Not sure how they can enforce this, but it's the law anyway. I evaded getting busted on my last trip overseas.

kcchief19 · 08-01-2006, 06:35 PM

The cynic in me thinks that the most likely scenario is all out civil war. Cuban exiles are all fired up to jump on the power vacuum left by Castro's death, whenever it happens, and after waiting so long they are ready to back an armed coup if necessary. Clearly Cuba is divided -- Castro has plenty of fans down there. I don't think this is going to be a case where everybody wakes up one morning, topples over a Castro statue and all of sudden they are capitalists. Once Castro is gone, I don't think change will come quickly enough for some people.

If that happens, the next question is when do we get involved -- which we'll have to since we're already down there by virtue of Gitmo.

07-31-2006, 09:14 PM	#2
cartman Death Herald Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas	Cuba will be the 51st state within 5 years of Fidel being gone. __________________ Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint

08-01-2006, 05:40 PM	#3
Edward64 General Manager Join Date: Oct 2005	Didn't think about the 51st state. I'm not sure we want the responsibility, can you imagine the hassle of trying to integrate the population (ex. culture and more importantly the 'liabilities' of supporting the underclass). Not alot of benefits other than sugar-cane but a ton of headaches. Would prefer if we just invested heavily and made it a tourist mecca ala Godfather 2.

08-01-2006, 06:35 PM	#8
kcchief19 Pro Starter Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Kansas City, MO	The cynic in me thinks that the most likely scenario is all out civil war. Cuban exiles are all fired up to jump on the power vacuum left by Castro's death, whenever it happens, and after waiting so long they are ready to back an armed coup if necessary. Clearly Cuba is divided -- Castro has plenty of fans down there. I don't think this is going to be a case where everybody wakes up one morning, topples over a Castro statue and all of sudden they are capitalists. Once Castro is gone, I don't think change will come quickly enough for some people. If that happens, the next question is when do we get involved -- which we'll have to since we're already down there by virtue of Gitmo.

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