OT (Politics): 2006 Congressional Elections

[flere-imsaho]

If you read left-wing blogs (like I sometimes do), you'd be excused for believing that the Democrats have a realistic chance of taking both chambers of Congress in November, an idea that was laughable even 3 months ago (and, maybe, still is). However, these left-wing blogs are backing up their hoopla with actual poll numbers, so the "unthinkable" may in fact happen.

So, poll question aside, let's consider the idea that the Democrats gain majorities in either the House or Senate or both. What are the ramifications? Instant political gridlock? Immediate investigations into the Executive Branch? Business as usual?

Furthermore, what's the effect on 2008? I've been getting the feeling that a lot of hard-core Democrat supporters believe that 2008 will be the year for a complete take-back of the Legislative and Executive branches, as the voters kick out the Republicans in a wave a revulsion. Problem is, what if the Democrats already own both chambers in 2008? Will the revulsion still be the same?

Anyway, I figure this might be some good food for thought.

[sabotai]

I don't really follow this that much (I do once the elections get close). How many seats are up, and what is the Reb. to Dem. ratio? If they are split in number of seats open, I would say it would stay the same. If a lot more Reb. seats are up than Dem., chances are looking good for them to take one or both back, or at least tighten them up some.

[MrBigglesworth]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Immediate investigations into the Executive Branch?

Conyers has just put together a 100 page report detailing about 24 laws and statutes that the Bush adminstration has broken, and he would be in charge of investigations, so that's almost a given.

I think it's possible that the Dems get the House, but the Senate will be extremely tough to get: the Dems need a net gain of 6, and only 4 GOP Senators look vulnerable (Ohio, Montana, PA, RI).

[Young Drachma]

Zombies will ensure the status quo is maintained. Believe it.

[Toddzilla]

I like the fact that over 50% of Americans likely to vote (56% per CNN) want the troops withdrawn from Iraq within 12 months, 19% say immediatley. What this demonstrates is that the GOP talking point that "people who say we should pull out of Iraq are radicals/on the finge" is completly wrong. A MAJORITY of Americans want the troops out, and those who think we should stay and fight are actualy the radical minority. I think the people who want the troops to come home are the ones who will vote that way in November, and the candidates that will benefit are Democrats.

[st.cronin]

I predict a gain of 1 seat in the Senate for Independents.

[digamma]

I don't see how the Dems get more than 48 seats in the Senate. Maybe if Harold Ford pulls off an upset (but he's polling pretty poorly right now), they get to 49, and with a Bernie Sanders win in Vermont, that makes it 50-49-1, but I think a balance of 51-48-1 is more likely.

I think the Dems will close the gap in the House, but not enough to gain the majority.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

Zombies will ensure the status quo is maintained. Believe it.

Agreed. After what happened in 2004, I have little to no faith in the majority of the American public. I very much look forward to being to proved wrong, but I feel that I wont.

[Crapshoot]

I can't see the GOP losing the Senate at all - maybe the house if everything breaks against them, but the Senate is too damn hard.

[Klinglerware]

Retaking the house will still be very difficult for the Democrats--gerrymandering gives incumbents a huge advantage. Also, even if the mood in the country is anti-Republican, that may not be enough for voters to reject their Republican representative in their own CD, especially if that congressperson is fairly established. In other words, voters may dislike the Republican party in general, but may still like the work (and pork generated) that their own representative is doing on behalf of the CD. If that's the case, the Republicans will be more likely to hold on to their majority in the House.

With that being said, it would be quite a surprise if the Republicans didn't lose a few House seats in the upcoming election.

[cartman]

My biggest beef is that they address the e-voting systems. The Diebold machines have proven to be a joke, but there doesn't seem to be any impetus to address the situation. Without at least a paper trail, it's hard to trust these machines. There have been too many security holes exposed on them to really be trusted. If ATMs were programmed like these things, banks would be run out of business.