FOF2K4 Expansion team: Bush or Williams?

[revrew]

I'm entering the draft of my second year as the expansion Texans ("what?" you say? I thought there wasn't expansion in FOF2K4? Well, I've created it, but more on that when I finish my test franchises). Now, I'm faced with the Reggie Bush or Mario Williams dilemma, only this isn't the pros, this is FOF, and we're only entering Houston's second season.

I can draft a nearly can't miss superstar HB, a superstar RDE, or a hall-of-fame guard with my first pick following my inaugural 1-15 season. I need help making the call. The options:

HB: He's got solid projected ratings top-to-bottom (but no KR or PR ability), and boasts 4.33 speed. With low volatility and great combine numbers and developed %, he looks like the OROY in the waiting.

RDE: He can run stuff, rush the passer, has great technique, and pushed 33 reps in strength. He has blazing 4.7 speed and brains to boot. If he stays healthy, he should be capable of double digit sacks for a long time.

Guard: What can I say? He's smart, insanely strong (45 reps in the combine), and is maxed out in every category but endurance, which is a bit on the low side. Projected to hit a 91 rating, but I think that's modest. Of the three, he's the only one with a volatility rating above 30 (his is 62). But then...he's a guard.

Now for team needs and arguments:
Take Reggie Bush: C'mon, man. You don't want to repeat the real Texans' blunder. Our passing game sucks. Omigosh it sucks. We were bottom of the league last year in scoring, and with a strong young defense, some offensive firepower is badly needed.

Take Mario Williams: We have a young, potentially dominant defensive line with only one gap: RDE. Our defense as a whole looks to be the strength of the team, but we have to do a better job of holding the right end. At the same time, last year's only bright spot was at HB, where our guy averaged 4.3 yards behind the worst line in the game. Our current HB is a team leader with multiple affinities, and he's still young. He's Domanick Davis without the injuries. Taking Mario here would not be the same as the IRL Texans' blunder.

Take the Guard: Our offensive line is pathetic, though strengthened with some capable F.A. veteran guards in the offseason. Still not good, but...why would you ever pass on a hall-of-fame player? Guard or not, he's the best player in the draft. Coupled with our solid center, and our already solid HB, our inside running game would be unstoppable. The Guard would help our pathetic offense more than Reggie Bush would.

Now, with that information...what's the call?

[Izulde]

The HB. You can afford one weak link on D if the rest of your defense is strong and young. A G should never, ever be taken that high.

[QuikSand]

Trade down to pick #3?

[bulletsponge]

i would take the DE. RB are a dime a dozen, and they all seem the same. and DE always seems hard to fill in FOF

[stevew]

Trade down to 5 and take the Guard and turn him into a LT.

[stevew]

dola,

Ever since I finally noticed that Endurance thing about RB's, I don't really even want a "stud" rb, cause chances are he won't get much more than 70 percent of our carries. A good medium quality back with midrange endurance will pretty well handle all of your carries. Also that "speed to outside" rating, I think that's the one, tends to negatively effect the YPC IMO. FWIW, I get better mileage out of a hole recognition/breakaway speed guy.

[revrew]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Trade down to pick #3?

Actually, I've already done that. I'm at pick 5 now, as I hoped my competitors would simply make the decision for me. I've received compensation for trading down, while watching a pair of DTs (which I don't need), and a pair of WRs (which I don't want) get picked ahead of me. I'd trade down more, but the guys just below me aren't as willing to give up the goods, and I can't afford to drop so low I miss one of these guys.

BTW, I never thought of making the guard a tackle. Hmmm...

[revrew]

Originally Posted by stevew

dola,

Ever since I finally noticed that Endurance thing about RB's, I don't really even want a "stud" rb, cause chances are he won't get much more than 70 percent of our carries. A good medium quality back with midrange endurance will pretty well handle all of your carries. Also that "speed to outside" rating, I think that's the one, tends to negatively effect the YPC IMO. FWIW, I get better mileage out of a hole recognition/breakaway speed guy.

Regarding this comment and the previous "RBs are a dime a dozen," I couldn't disagree more. In my experience, I've found a RB taken at the top of the first round makes a serious impact, while grade A- backs are a dime a dozen and not that separable in performance from the C+ backs. The A+ backs, however, have always been good to me.

At the same time, DEs have a longer lifespan, and with a franchise in just its second year, with a TON of youth, I figured there would be some who say "Go for the lineman over the skill guy every time".

Thanks all for your input, I'm curious to hear additional comments.

[stevew]

I'd probably also look at the "Greed" rating of the 3 guy's agents, and take whichever one had the lowest one. Figure I want a stud rookie that I can sign to a 6 year deal if possible.

[revrew]

As a new week has begun, I bump this for those absent from the board on weekends.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by stevew

dola,

Ever since I finally noticed that Endurance thing about RB's, I don't really even want a "stud" rb, cause chances are he won't get much more than 70 percent of our carries. A good medium quality back with midrange endurance will pretty well handle all of your carries. Also that "speed to outside" rating, I think that's the one, tends to negatively effect the YPC IMO. FWIW, I get better mileage out of a hole recognition/breakaway speed guy.

Depends on how the line is, but I have taken a team with 3.5 YPC to 4.0+ YPC due to exploiting the stable of backs strength in "speed to outside." You're right, other skills are better, but this is good if you want to run outside your tackle or end.

[revrew]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

Depends on how the line is, but I have taken a team with 3.5 YPC to 4.0+ YPC due to exploiting the stable of backs strength in "speed to outside." You're right, other skills are better, but this is good if you want to run outside your tackle or end.

I seem to recall Skydog (I think) doing an extensive study on the question of a HB's best skills, where he found Hole Recognition and Elusiveness to be the best determiners of a back's productivity. Since then, I stock my backfield with backs strong in that combination regardless of other ratings. Even my pathetic backs (ratings 30-45) with that combination flirt with or exceed 4yds per carry. Those same backs, however, don't help in the passing game and seem to struggle in the red zone.

The great backs I've drafted (like the fellow above), however, flirt with 5ypc, catch the ball, and notch 15+ tuddies a year. Those backs were also Recognition and Elusiveness guys but were strong elsewhere too.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by revrew

I seem to recall Skydog (I think) doing an extensive study on the question of a HB's best skills, where he found Hole Recognition and Elusiveness to be the best determiners of a back's productivity. Since then, I stock my backfield with backs strong in that combination regardless of other ratings. Even my pathetic backs (ratings 30-45) with that combination flirt with or exceed 4yds per carry. Those same backs, however, don't help in the passing game and seem to struggle in the red zone.

The great backs I've drafted (like the fellow above), however, flirt with 5ypc, catch the ball, and notch 15+ tuddies a year. Those backs were also Recognition and Elusiveness guys but were strong elsewhere too.

ED seems to agree.

[revrew]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

ED seems to agree.

My gosh. That's the most awesome website I have ever seen. I really missed the boat not getting into a MP league. But, building a house and having a baby didn't leave time

[albionmoonlight]

I've done pretty well without stud ends. Use a 2nd tier guy with run stopping ability on running downs. Have a pass rush specalist linebacker fill in on passing downs.

I'd take the running back.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

ED seems to agree.

We're going to shut his ass down today.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by revrew

I seem to recall Skydog (I think) doing an extensive study on the question of a HB's best skills, where he found Hole Recognition and Elusiveness to be the best determiners of a back's productivity. Since then, I stock my backfield with backs strong in that combination regardless of other ratings. Even my pathetic backs (ratings 30-45) with that combination flirt with or exceed 4yds per carry. Those same backs, however, don't help in the passing game and seem to struggle in the red zone.

The great backs I've drafted (like the fellow above), however, flirt with 5ypc, catch the ball, and notch 15+ tuddies a year. Those backs were also Recognition and Elusiveness guys but were strong elsewhere too.

Don't misunderstand what I am saying, HR is the best attribute for a back to have. All I am saying is that you can take guys with high speed to the outside and very little in the other categories and turn him into an effective back. I have used guys with overall of 30-40 averaging 4.0+ YPC only being good at speed to outside. You need to have good tackles though, otherwise you get thrown for a loss.

EDIT: RBs are probably the easiest position on offense to get the most out of mediocre players. But, the studs you get can be worth their weight in gold since they can tote the rock, catch passes out of the backfield, etc.

[Vince]

Why I don't worry about getting a stud RB. John Humphries is rated 27/29 by my scout. I think his absence this year is largely why my team has fallen off the map late in the season.

[johnnyshaka]

Originally Posted by Vince

Why I don't worry about getting a stud RB. John Humphries is rated 27/29 by my scout. I think his absence this year is largely why my team has fallen off the map late in the season.

Boy, how do you even know a guy rated that poorly is even any good?? I mean, how did he get carries in the first place?

[revrew]

Well, I went with the Running Back. He busted. Not that anyone could have predicted that; his combine numbers suggested he might even boom. But alas...my expansion Texans look to repeat the IRL loser tradition.

[Hoya1]

Originally Posted by Kodos

We're going to shut his ass down today.

Bring it on

[fantastic flying froggies]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

ED seems to agree.

and he's a damn rookie too...

The guy ran all over my Giants last week...

Probably the most impressive RB I've ever played in FOF MP...