Trade Understanding

Dave Hansen · 01-22-2007, 10:47 AM

I have just started my first league. Have just drafted my first roster and still setting in 1st week of exhibition season.

I have read many threads regarding trading on the board...and also how to build a team thru drafting, FA, etc.

I'm trying to develop my own strategy for building a team going forward.

To help me get a handle on the trading aspect, I did a "test" trade. I basically proposed a trade that if I was the AI I would make the trade in a heartbeat.

Got the following when proposed..."You are extreamly close to a fair offer in terms of talent. Your opponent wants just a little more in return."

Here is a comparision of the players involved:

LCB Dumrauf(me) vs. LCB Christy(AI)

rating: 79/79 vs. 45/76.

scout rating secondary: VG vs. G

exp: 6 yrs vs. 3 yrs

drafted: 3rd round 1st pick vs. 4th and 22nd

cap available: $13.270M vs. $13.270M

cap cost: $7.330 vs. $6.500

salary: $4.080 vs. $3.250

bonus: $3.250 vs. $3.250

contact year ends: 2006 vs. 2006

position exp LCB: red vs. lite green

position exp RCB: red vs. lite blue

mentor: yes vs. no

As a newbie I am trying to understand why the AI would not trade for my LCB straight up?

Is the 3 year age difference a negative?

$830K difference in cap costs a negative?

Scouting "error"?

Tough/demanding AI when it comes to trading?

All of the above?

Other factors?

TXS for any insights!

QuikSand · 01-22-2007, 11:17 AM

making any trade of a signed player causes a cap problem, in that the departing player's bonus counts against the cap in the following season. I'm having a little trouble telling what the situation is with these two players, but in general, eating a multi-million cap hit to make a fair trade might not be worth it.

Also... if both players' contracts end after the current season, then the 3rd year player will be restricted at the end of this year, while the older player will be unrestricted. I don't know if the AI is taking that into consideration... but in theory that is an argument for the younger player being a lot more valuable.

gstelmack · 01-22-2007, 11:27 AM

I wouldn't take that straight up. The youth is a benefit here.

MizzouRah · 01-22-2007, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I wouldn't take that straight up. The youth is a benefit here.

I agree, not to mention the money you'll save resigning the younger guy vs the vet who's already peaked.

DolphinFan1 · 01-22-2007, 12:09 PM

I also think it's the youth thing is the reason the AI turned it down. If you add a draft pick, you probably could get the trade to go through.

MartinD · 01-22-2007, 12:15 PM

In general, any trade you propose has to be significantly skewed towards the other team in order for it to get accepted - here, the guy you're offering in the trade is the better player (right now at least), but there's not quite enough of a gap for the AI to accept it - you'd probably get this trade through if you add a 6th or 7th round draft pick on your side.

An example from the career I'm playing at the moment - I wanted to trade up a few picks in the draft, so offered 4.6 and 6.6 to move up into the bottom of the third round. The AI rejected the trade for 3.27, 3.28 and 3.30 (as in moving up less than a dozen spots for a 6th-round pick, which is fairly common in the RL draft), but I eventually gave up 4.6 and 6.6 to move up only to 4.2...

(This only applies to trades that you propose - the AI-proposed trades are sometimes biased significantly in your favour...)

Martin

Dave Hansen · 01-22-2007, 12:58 PM

TXS to all!

DougWyatt · 01-22-2007, 02:20 PM

Yeah, I agree, the youth in this deal makes it a trade the AI shouldn't take. I'd bet that by season's end the 3rd year CB is a 67/78 or so.

Also, I do find it difficult to work a trade in FOF - but IMO; it's a good thing. Unless I've missed something; trading isn't really a major part of the NFL either.

Vinatieri for Prez · 01-22-2007, 03:18 PM

He's younger and cheaper. There would be a cap hit. It would hurt cohesion.

Maple Leafs · 01-22-2007, 06:22 PM

Observation: trade difficulty in FOF2K7 has swung too far to the difficult side, which is not ideal but probably still preferable to being too easy.

Have we ever done a good in-depth discussion of trading responses in FOF? For example, the way that "extremely close" means you can add a sixth round pick, what "you've made a fair offer but you're not close to a deal" means, etc. I doubt they've changed much over the years so no point going over it again if it's already been laid out, but I've never seen it.

Synovia · 01-22-2007, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DolphinFan1

I also think it's the youth thing is the reason the AI turned it down. If you add a draft pick, you probably could get the trade to go through.

Yeah, but the young guy is a far inferior corner. This is like Denver trying to trade Champ Bailey for Deangelo Hall straight up. Hall has the potential to be great, but hes not right now, and theres no guarantee he will be.

Also, corners tend ot play fine till 32 or 33, so the older guy still has plenty of years left. Refusing this trade seems crazy to me.

Also, how the hell are you getting players like that out of the 4th round?

Dave Hansen · 01-22-2007, 09:23 PM

The draft in question was the initial league/fantasy draft to stock all team rosters with 53 players.

FWIW-I agree with Synovia's reasoning.

I think it's an AI thing.

I've tried a few more mock draft proposals with similiar results. The trading AI is tough cookie...I believe that's what causing the trade to be rejected on a straight one-for-one deal.

Reading the help file seems to support MartinD's comment...better success waiting for an AI proposed trade.

Seems like the bottom line in building and maintaining a winner is...drafting smart and making trades during the drafting process. FA and trading with the AI are secondary.

As the noobie said...that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

MIJB#19 · 01-23-2007, 09:01 AM

You have to keep in mind that in trading, he who wants to trade most is the one who should be prepared to pay a little bit more than 'equal value'.

Celeval · 01-23-2007, 10:06 AM

Length of the contracts is a biggie as well, especially as it relates to the necessary cap hit.

mac · 01-23-2007, 02:36 PM

i agree trading has become too hard in FoF2007 in my SP league (which is now at 2035) if you look at the how acquired list only 3 players in the whole league were acquired by trade and I was involved in all those trades. I think the levels in the NFl are a higher does anyone have any real data on this?

01-22-2007, 11:27 AM	#3
gstelmack Pro Starter Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Cary, NC	I wouldn't take that straight up. The youth is a benefit here. __________________ -- Greg -- Author of various FOF utilities

01-22-2007, 12:09 PM	#5
DolphinFan1 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Connecticut	I also think it's the youth thing is the reason the AI turned it down. If you add a draft pick, you probably could get the trade to go through. __________________ GM of the Milwaukee Muscle Men of the ZFL. The 1st team in ZFL history to have a perfect losing season. I am on a quest to show that the Dolphins can win the Super Bowl. Or should I say Front Office Bowl, with FOF2K7. The revival of an old favorite, FOFC Wrestling Dynasty

01-22-2007, 06:22 PM	#10
Maple Leafs Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2002	Observation: trade difficulty in FOF2K7 has swung too far to the difficult side, which is not ideal but probably still preferable to being too easy. Have we ever done a good in-depth discussion of trading responses in FOF? For example, the way that "extremely close" means you can add a sixth round pick, what "you've made a fair offer but you're not close to a deal" means, etc. I doubt they've changed much over the years so no point going over it again if it's already been laid out, but I've never seen it. __________________ Down Goes Brown: Toronto Maple Leafs Humor and Analysis

01-23-2007, 09:01 AM	#13
MIJB#19 Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Maassluis, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands	You have to keep in mind that in trading, he who wants to trade most is the one who should be prepared to pay a little bit more than 'equal value'. __________________ * 2005 Golden Scribe winner for best FOF Dynasty about IHOF's Maassluis Merchantmen * Former GM of GEFL's Houston Oilers and WOOF's Curacao Cocktail

01-22-2007, 11:17 AM	#2
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	making any trade of a signed player causes a cap problem, in that the departing player's bonus counts against the cap in the following season. I'm having a little trouble telling what the situation is with these two players, but in general, eating a multi-million cap hit to make a fair trade might not be worth it. Also... if both players' contracts end after the current season, then the 3rd year player will be restricted at the end of this year, while the older player will be unrestricted. I don't know if the AI is taking that into consideration... but in theory that is an argument for the younger player being a lot more valuable.

01-22-2007, 12:15 PM	#6
MartinD High School Varsity Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: East Lothian, Scotland	In general, any trade you propose has to be significantly skewed towards the other team in order for it to get accepted - here, the guy you're offering in the trade is the better player (right now at least), but there's not quite enough of a gap for the AI to accept it - you'd probably get this trade through if you add a 6th or 7th round draft pick on your side. An example from the career I'm playing at the moment - I wanted to trade up a few picks in the draft, so offered 4.6 and 6.6 to move up into the bottom of the third round. The AI rejected the trade for 3.27, 3.28 and 3.30 (as in moving up less than a dozen spots for a 6th-round pick, which is fairly common in the RL draft), but I eventually gave up 4.6 and 6.6 to move up only to 4.2... (This only applies to trades that you propose - the AI-proposed trades are sometimes biased significantly in your favour...) Martin

01-22-2007, 12:58 PM	#7
Dave Hansen n00b Join Date: Dec 2006	TXS to all!

01-22-2007, 02:20 PM	#8
DougWyatt H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: Sep 2006	Yeah, I agree, the youth in this deal makes it a trade the AI shouldn't take. I'd bet that by season's end the 3rd year CB is a 67/78 or so. Also, I do find it difficult to work a trade in FOF - but IMO; it's a good thing. Unless I've missed something; trading isn't really a major part of the NFL either.

01-22-2007, 03:18 PM	#9
Vinatieri for Prez College Starter Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Seattle	He's younger and cheaper. There would be a cap hit. It would hurt cohesion.

01-22-2007, 09:23 PM	#12
Dave Hansen n00b Join Date: Dec 2006	The draft in question was the initial league/fantasy draft to stock all team rosters with 53 players. FWIW-I agree with Synovia's reasoning. I think it's an AI thing. I've tried a few more mock draft proposals with similiar results. The trading AI is tough cookie...I believe that's what causing the trade to be rejected on a straight one-for-one deal. Reading the help file seems to support MartinD's comment...better success waiting for an AI proposed trade. Seems like the bottom line in building and maintaining a winner is...drafting smart and making trades during the drafting process. FA and trading with the AI are secondary. As the noobie said...that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

01-23-2007, 10:06 AM	#14
Celeval Pro Starter Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Cary, NC, USA	Length of the contracts is a biggie as well, especially as it relates to the necessary cap hit.

01-23-2007, 02:36 PM	#15
mac n00b Join Date: Dec 2006	i agree trading has become too hard in FoF2007 in my SP league (which is now at 2035) if you look at the how acquired list only 3 players in the whole league were acquired by trade and I was involved in all those trades. I think the levels in the NFl are a higher does anyone have any real data on this?

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