Key Run Blocks - let's figure this thing out once and for all...

[QuikSand]

Okay, I have heard a variety fo comments in various places about key run blocks. We all basiclaly understand (or think we understand) the nature of the stat... but there are some oddities that seem to happen in there that make me wonder what's up.

So... let's work through this thread, and figure out, as completely as we can, what's going on with the KRB phenomenon in FOF 2007.

If you want to contribute knowledge here from what you have studies, seen, or recorded from FOF 2004, that's fine - but be sure to mark it clearly as such. Just in case there are some changes in the game engine in this respect from 2004 to 2007, I don't want to get lost on that account.

With that... what do we know?

[QuikSand]

A few questions to be answered (and shouldn't be tough):

When is a KRO generated for a play?

-It seems that there is exactly one player assigned a key run block opporunity on most runnning plays.

-I am quite certain that there are ever more than one assigned on a play.

-I think there are some exceptions to the 1:1 ratio -- things like QB scrambles don't seem to trigger a KRO. I suspect there may be more exceptions, but they are a pretty distinct minority.

-Is it all QB carries that fail to create a KRO, but all other carries that do? Or more complex than that? What about draws? Reverses? Called QB rushes? Kneel-downs?


What sort of plays always trace back to a successful key run block?

I think this is more at the heart of my thining here. I believe, though am not 100% certain, that every run that nets a first down or a touchdown will result in a KRB being credited to someone on the offense.

Do we have any real insight here? Can anyone refute the above? It just takes one counterexample.

A related question, which I will place under here, is: what is the potential universe of results from a KRB in FOF 2007? I seem to recall some notion that a KRB in FOF 2004 resulted in a running play of at least X yards (5?), but in this game, I'm pretty certain that converting a 3rd and 1 for exactly the 1 yard needed will generate a successful KRB. Is there some layered, but definable, way to sort out what happens when the KRB is successful?


I am also open to the results of this diggins sending us in a rather counter-intuitive direction... i.e. that the KRB is actually an in-game sult of a good running play, rather than the other way around.


I suspect there are more factual questions to be tackled here... but all input is welcome.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

For 2K7, I can only add anecdotally that TDs and 1st downs generate KRBs every time for me (even 1-yard runs). As for particular yardage in other instances, I can't peg it down. I have seen a run as long as 9 yards occur without a KRB, and many times a 6-yarder has failed to register a KRB. I also see a KRO registered for each run, except QB scrambles, as you noted; this has occurred even when some of my runs have included finesse/counterplays. Again, this is all looked at in a very elemental review of box scores.

[MrBigglesworth]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

For 2K7, I can only add anecdotally that TDs and 1st downs generate KRBs every time for me (even 1-yard runs). As for particular yardage in other instances, I can't peg it down. I have seen a run as long as 9 yards occur without a KRB, and many times a 6-yarder has failed to register a KRB. I also see a KRO registered for each run, except QB scrambles, as you noted; this has occurred even when some of my runs have included finesse/counterplays. Again, this is all looked at in a very elemental review of box scores.

I've always assumed this but never researched it, but is every KRB mentioned in Solevision?

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by MrBigglesworth

I've always assumed this but never researched it, but is every KRB mentioned in Solevision?

Again, my limited review of 3 game logs/solevision show this to be true.

I also point out that when you get the message in Solevision like "he knocked him flat" or "threw him to the ground," the lineman gets credited also with a pancake block. (i.e. the lineman gets credited with a KRB and a pancake, not just the pancake). Or in other words, all pancake blocks are KRBs.

Again, this is with limited anecdotal review, no testing.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

A few questions to be answered (and shouldn't be tough):

When is a KRO generated for a play?


-Is it all QB carries that fail to create a KRO, but all other carries that do? Or more complex than that? What about draws? Reverses? Called QB rushes? Kneel-downs?

I'm positive that I have seen a few QB carries that did result in a KRO. It's very rare and it always says QB draw on the play, but it does happen. I'll try to find the game log where that occurred, but it's been a few years in my current SP game since I last saw it.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

I should note that I have seen many 5-yard runs have a KRB credited, even when the run does not go for a 1st down or TD. However, as I stated earlier, I have seen runs of more than 5 yards (often with 6-yard runs) not have a KRB credited.

So, this would seem to show there is more at work than just a basic yardage requirement for KRBs (when there is no TD or 1st down).

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

I'm positive that I have seen a few QB carries that did result in a KRO. It's very rare and it always says QB draw on the play, but it does happen. I'll try to find the game log where that occurred, but it's been a few years in my current SP game since I last saw it.

This would seem to suggest that designed QB carries get KRO, but impromptu scrambles do not.

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

This would seem to suggest that designed QB carries get KRO, but impromptu scrambles do not.

Agreed.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

One issue I am interested in too, is what decides which player gets the KRO. I think it is clear from cursory glance of the game logs that the side of the run does not entirely determine who gets the KRO. I've seen the LT get a KRO for a run inside the LG. I've seen a RG get a KRO for a run outside the RT. I've seen a LG get a KRO for a run inside the RG. I've even seen a LG get credit for the KRO for a run around the right end.

Obviously, in real life, you have pulling guards, etc. which explain this. I've always wondered if there are actual play calls being made in-game that determine this or whether it's just a simple die roll along the line with the odds of each player getting the KRO determined somewhat from the direction of the run.

I'd also add that I'm not so sure the run direction has a very strong bearing. For instance, a recent game had:

runs left: 5
runs middle: 14
runs right: 2

Using the game log, I charted them with more specificity as:

left end: 3
outside left tackle: 2
inside left tackle: 4
inside left guard: 4
inside right guard: 1
inside right tackle: 5
outside right tackle: 0
right end: 2

Total: 21

However, my starting LT (who does not play backup at any position and participated in 19 of 21 run plays) was credited with 10 of 21 KRO. Even if you give him all of the left end and outside left tackle KROs for 5, he still gets 5 of the remaining 16 KROs on which he was on the field for only 14 of the run plays. Now, I know my LG got the KRO for one of the inside left tackle runs (because he got a KRB for it). This means that you have to credit the LT with all of the remaining 3 inside left tackle runs AND 2 of the KRO for the runs starting at LG moving to the right.

This is purely anectodal of course off a limited sample of 1 game log in 2K7. But, it buttresses something I have always thought, that while run direction determines KROs somewhat, linemen with better run blocking get a higher proportion of the KROs. You see, my LT is rated 100 in run blocking (while my LG is 76, C is 55, RG is 63, and RT is 42).

Anyways, just food for thought.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I seem to recall some notion that a KRB in FOF 2004 resulted in a running play of at least X yards (5?), but in this game, I'm pretty certain that converting a 3rd and 1 for exactly the 1 yard needed will generate a successful KRB.

In FOF2004 a key run block was awarded if the run went for 5 yards or over and/or it achieved a first down or touchdown. As Vinny has noted runs can go for over 5 yards and not get a key run block awarded in FOF2007. However I have never seen a run for less than 5 yards (which didn't result in a 1st down/touchdown) get a key run block awarded.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

So, I decided to chart the previous game as well for comparison:

run left: 9
run middle: 6
run right: 4

Via the game log, charted specifically as:

left end: 6
outside left tackle: 3
inside left tackle: 2
inside left guard: 2
inside right guard: 1
inside right tackle: 1
outside right tackle: 2
right end: 2

Total: 19

This time, my starting stud LT was credited with only 4 of 19 KROs (he participated in 18 of the 19 run plays). This is the case even though there were 6 runs around left end and 3 around left tackle. So, in this game, we can't even credit him with half of the 9 runs going LE/Out LT, but yet in the other game, we had to credit him with all 5 of the LE/Out LT runs and then numerous others just to have it add up.

I would also add that my LG alone registered KRBs for runs all the way from LE to RE.

It seems there is a complete disparity of how KROs are calculated. One I have yet to figure out. Of course, this particular game log completely blows out of the water my theory that the higher the run blocking rating, the more KROs you get.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

I should note that I have seen many 5-yard runs have a KRB credited, even when the run does not go for a 1st down or TD. However, as I stated earlier, I have seen runs of more than 5 yards (often with 6-yard runs) not have a KRB credited.

So, this would seem to show there is more at work than just a basic yardage requirement for KRBs (when there is no TD or 1st down).

My observation is that it is like this:

Five-yard run on first and 10: KRB awarded
6-10 yard run on 2nd or 3rd and Long that does NOT result in first down or TD: No KRB awarded.

In the OSFL sim last night, I definitely had a 10-yard run by a RB on a 2nd and very long situation that did *not* result in a KRB awarded. However, I have seen several 5-yard runs on 1st and 10 that result in KRBs.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

My observation is that it is like this:

Five-yard run on first and 10: KRB awarded
6-10 yard run on 2nd or 3rd and Long that does NOT result in first down or TD: No KRB awarded.

In the OSFL sim last night, I definitely had a 10-yard run by a RB on a 2nd and very long situation that did *not* result in a KRB awarded. However, I have seen several 5-yard runs on 1st and 10 that result in KRBs.

Yep, I think you're onto something. Looking at those two same game logs, the 6-yard runs that did not have a KRB were on 2nd and 10; 2nd and 10; and 2nd and 7.

Note that even a 6-yard run with 7 yards to go did not register a KRB. So, 7 yards to go crosses the threshold of 2nd and long. I would imagine then that the remaining question is the 10+ yard rule you have for 2nd or 3rd and long, or if it doesn't matter at all how long the run is on 2nd or 3rd and long, if it doesn't get a 1st down or TD, it will be no KRB.

Finally, I had an 8-yard run on 1st and 16 register as a key run block, so perhaps distance to go on 1st down does not matter.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

I would imagine then that the remaining question is the 10+ yard rule you have for 2nd or 3rd and long, or if it doesn't matter at all how long the run is on 2nd or 3rd and long, if it doesn't get a 1st down or TD, it will be no KRB.

SD is right, it's likely the former. I had a KRB registered for a 17-yard run on 2nd and 19.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

My observation is that it is like this:

Five-yard run on first and 10: KRB awarded
6-10 yard run on 2nd or 3rd and Long that does NOT result in first down or TD: No KRB awarded.

In the OSFL sim last night, I definitely had a 10-yard run by a RB on a 2nd and very long situation that did *not* result in a KRB awarded. However, I have seen several 5-yard runs on 1st and 10 that result in KRBs.

The guys over at Football Outsiders have a grading for running plays that result in "success" which comes generally close to this sort of measure. Maybe Jim's game decides that if the run was a "success" (either by the FO metric, or by something similar of his own) then the blocking is rewarded with a KRB, and if not, not.

Once again, pointing toward the KRB stat being an outcome of a running play, rather than being an input into its result.

[QuikSand]

So, a hypothetical model for how this might work...

On any given run play:

-an aggregate "run blocking" rating for your offense and the defense is determined, perhaps with added weight to the players in the immediate zone where the run is to take place

-dice are rolled to determine the net effect of the blkocking scheme

-the ball carrier's skills are checked to determine how well he takes advantage of the setup

-the play nets a certain result

-the game goes back and assigns a tackle to somebody on the defense

-the game goes back and assigns a key run block opportunity to somebody, presumably weighted toward the immediate zone where the run took place (but not exclusively so)

-if the run met a certain "success" threshhold, then the KRO for that player is considered to have succeeded, and the KRB is awarded and tracked



I don't yet have a notion of where to fit in the "pancake" blocks, so I have left them out for now. Is this, essentially, how we think the engine works?

And if so... anyone have a philosophical problem with that?

[MIJB#19]

I think the same order of things happens as you posted QS, yet I'll provide a bit of an alternate theory:

-an aggregate "run blocking" rating for your offense and the defense is determined, perhaps with added weight to the players in the immediate zone where the run is to take place

-dice are rolled to determine the net effect of the blkocking scheme

-the ball carrier's skills are checked to determine how well he takes advantage of the setup

-the game assigns a key run block opportunity to somebody, presumably weighted toward the immediate zone where the run took place (but not exclusively so)

-the game assigns a key run block defender, presumably weighted toward the immediate zone where the run took place (but not exclusively so)

-the game assigns a potential key run block (and pancake block?) if the run blocker beats the run defender

-the play nets a certain result

-the game assigns a tackle to somebody on the defense

-if the run met a certain "success" threshhold, then the KRO for that player is considered to have succeeded, and the KRB is awarded and tracked

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So, a hypothetical model for how this might work...

On any given run play:

-an aggregate "run blocking" rating for your offense and the defense is determined, perhaps with added weight to the players in the immediate zone where the run is to take place

-dice are rolled to determine the net effect of the blkocking scheme

-the ball carrier's skills are checked to determine how well he takes advantage of the setup

-the play nets a certain result

-the game goes back and assigns a tackle to somebody on the defense

-the game goes back and assigns a key run block opportunity to somebody, presumably weighted toward the immediate zone where the run took place (but not exclusively so)

-if the run met a certain "success" threshhold, then the KRO for that player is considered to have succeeded, and the KRB is awarded and tracked



I don't yet have a notion of where to fit in the "pancake" blocks, so I have left them out for now. Is this, essentially, how we think the engine works?

And if so... anyone have a philosophical problem with that?

If that's how it works, then yes, I would. KRBs and tackles shouldn't be assigned after the fact. They should be first causes.


The flow should be something along these lines:


1. check key blocker(s) vs. key defender(s) at point of attack for strength vs. strength ("dissolves play" or pancake). If it's a run outside LT, for example, and the strong side is the right, and the FB is in the backfield, then the key matchups at the point of attack would probably be FB vs.WLB and LT vs. RDE.
1a. If playdissolved=Yes, then playdissolver vs. RB is checked for possible tackle in backfield. In FOF, where there's no tackling or breaking tackle rating, I guess that would need to be a matchup of strength versus elusiveness. If tackle is broken, assign penalty to blocking scheme overall impact, and continue wiht play resolution. If tackle is made, play ends here.
1b. If pancake=Yes, then assign KRB to pancaker and add bonus to blocking scheme overall impact, and continue with play resolution.
1c. If both=No, then continue with play resolution.
2. Check key matchups for KRB. If KRB=Yes, then bonus to overall impact. If KRB=No, then penalty to overall impact.
3. check blocking scheme overall impact, weighted more heavily for key blockers/defenders, applying bonus/penalties from above
4a. Check hole recognition, and if KRB=Yes or Pancake=Yes, then assign very high bonus. (Since the KRB/Pancake is taking place where the ball carrier was supposed to go in the first place, it should be pretty rare for him to miss THAT hole.). If recognition result is positive set creasefound=Yes.
4b. If KRB and Pancake both are No, then carrier still has a chance to find a little crease. Higher chance creasefound=Yes in these situations for those with high hole recognition.
5. If creasefound=No, then it's a low gain run.
6. If creasefound=Yes, then start looking at power inside, breakaway running, and elusiveness for potential big gains.

This could get very drawn out, but the point of it all is that if we're going to properly evaluate our offensive linemen for run blocking, and KRB is the primary stat we have to do so, then the KRB should be assigned on the front end of the play, based on whether or not he did his job, rather than on the back end, partially based on whether or not the RB did his job.

[Ben E Lou]

Dola:

There should be cases (besides 3rd and 1) where there's a KRB credited, but the RB only gets a yard or two, because he missed the whole. There should also be cases where there's no KRB credited, but the RB gets yardage on his own. As far as I can tell, neither is possible in FOF at the moment.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

-the game assigns a potential key run block (and pancake block?) if the run blocker beats the run defender

-the play nets a certain result

-the game assigns a tackle to somebody on the defense

-if the run met a certain "success" threshhold, then the KRO for that player is considered to have succeeded, and the KRB is awarded and tracked

So, you're suggesting that there are two decisions for the KRB stat... one that would happen before the play is resolved, and would have effect on the play outcome, and then another after the play is resolved, to ex post facto assign credit for a successful play even if the KRB wasn't generated beforehand?

I guess that is also consistent with the notion that certain successful plays *always* generate a KRB. I hadn't thought of this being a multi-step process, but we can't rule it out, as best I can tell.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

There should also be cases where there's no KRB credited, but the RB gets yardage on his own.

To me, this is the most frustrating piece of it. As it is, I'm starting to wonder how much you can use an individual player's KRB stats as a measure of his own performance... all indications point to this being very much a team stat, with individual credit apportioned in some rough way back to the players, but very much a function of a lot more than that one guy. An excellent back, or excellent OL colleagues, would certainly seem to boost any OL player's KRB numbers, it seems to me, and the converse is true as well.

[QuikSand]

One other thought... it's at least possible, within the model that I am using above, that the KRO-selected player is determined before the play happens, and that it's only the success of the KRO that is determined afterwards. It's at least possible. More to come... I'm expanding on that notion in a moment.

[QuikSand]

So, let's put numbers to this, even. All hypothetical, not based on anything empirical, just some intuition.

First, let's say that every run blocker has some consolidated rating I'll call Run Blocking Effectiveness, of RBE. RBE would presumably be some sort of weighted and situation-specific result of combining his skill in run blocking, along with other relevant skills like blocking strength and who knows what else, modified for the game situation (fatigue at that point might reduce his effectiveness), player readiness/rustiness and experience at the position he's playing, and so forth. But at ant point in any game, a given player has one number that encapsulates all this stuff, for now we'll call it RBE.

As the play is selected, and it's a designed run play, the game comes up with a formula to determine the overall RBE of the offense for this play. Maybe it looks something like this:

Offensive RBE=
sum of each OL's individual RBE
plus 1/2 the TE's and FB's RBE (for now I'll assume there's just one of each)
plus the "key" player selected for a KRO's RBE x2

So, if each player's RBE is on a scale of 0-100, then this is essentially the sum of eight such ratings -- which would either put it onto a scale of 0-800, or perhaps it would be rescaled back to 0-100 by dividing by 8. (Fair to question here whether adding additional run blockers who are less effective than the average of those around them ought to help or hurt the calculation here --I'll leave this note as a placeholder for an open question on that point)

Anyway -- so, let's assume that this calculation is made in something like this fashion -- every blocker counts, but one guy (the KRO guy for the play) is selected to have extra weight for determining the outcome of the play. It all gets bundled up into one consolidated rating, that gets used against a comparably-calculated Defensive RBE (or RDE) in determining the base outcome for the play itself.

Presumably, these factors actually end up creating (or adjusting an already-created) a mean and standard deviation for the play outcome. Then the game rolls dice to determine what happend on *this* particular play.


So, back to our matters of philosophy. If the system works this way, more or less, it would suggest that the selected "key" player actually does have a disproportionately large effect on this particular play (I gave him triple weight, but that was arbitrary -- it could be 2X, 3X, 10X or anything else, I suppose). And if that is so, then going back and giving him credit for the outcome of the play doesn't seem too absurd ot me... even though the assigning of after-the-fact KRB credit seems absurd on its face. It might just be another case of a FOF stat (or rating) that might have some intuitive explanation, it's just that it's not the explanation that you or I might draw form the title.

Rather than "key run blocks," perhaps this stat truly represents something more like "successful runs behind this player as key blocker." Which, itself, wouldn't be a terrible stat (in my view, at least) but just isn't the same thing that I think of with the label it's given in the game.


Just a bit more to chew on.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Rather than "key run blocks," perhaps this stat truly represents something more like "successful runs behind this player as key blocker." Which, itself, wouldn't be a terrible stat (in my view, at least) but just isn't the same thing that I think of with the label it's given in the game.

Your overall postulation makes sense, and the bolded section here is consistent with several other things in FOF. Maybe you're on to something. {shurg}

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So, you're suggesting that there are two decisions for the KRB stat... one that would happen before the play is resolved, and would have effect on the play outcome, and then another after the play is resolved, to ex post facto assign credit for a successful play even if the KRB wasn't generated beforehand?

I guess that is also consistent with the notion that certain successful plays *always* generate a KRB. I hadn't thought of this being a multi-step process, but we can't rule it out, as best I can tell.

Yes. I don't specifically believe this is true (at least didn't think so in the past) but with the Solevision view, it seems more like that there are some additional checks involved to see who is in position to make a key run block and then makes the room for the RB, maybe checks for run defenders who knocfk down their blockers, followed by the RB having the speed and eye to use the hole, before the key run block and tackle get assigned to players. Again, this is probably how I hope it works, more than anything. Given how (special teams) tackles used to be assigned in FOF2004 (kickers tackling a kickoff returner at the 20-yard line), I'm still afraid it's a bit more random, with the better players having a better chance to rack up stats.

[Warhammer]

What if you have a flow chart like this:

Run 23 Smash

Aggregate run blocking and defensive run defense generates modifier for play.

Check run technique among OL for who gets the KRO. In this case, LT gets it.

LT checks for run block technique, if successful then compares blocking strength to RDE run defense. If successful, check on KRB chart. If unsuccessful, check on normal play chart.

If unsuccessful, check RDE run defense to "blow up" play. If successful, check RB elusiveness, if unsuccessful, check play result on normal chart.

Or, maybe what happens is after the KRB is determined, you check the hole recognition for the RB. If successful, he finds the hole, goes through it, then you make a breakaway speed check. If you get this far, a KRB is granted.

[PiemasterUK]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

Or, maybe what happens is after the KRB is determined, you check the hole recognition for the RB. If successful, he finds the hole, goes through it, then you make a breakaway speed check. If you get this far, a KRB is granted.

That sounds reasonable to me. Basically for the KRB to happen, the Lineman has to succeed in his task and the Running Back has to suceed in his. In real life, linemen get very little public credit for a great block that the back doesn't take advantage of.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

After reading all of this, the biggest stumbling block I come across is the fact that an O-lineman who springs a RB for a 1-yard gain (for 1st down) gets a KRB, but an O-lineman who springs a RB for a 9-yard gain (on 2nd and long) does not. In real life, you would want the O-lineman who can consistently help his RB break off longer runs (bigger holes) than smaller ones, no? Yet in the FOF universe, with only the stats to look at, you may be going after the wrong guy in FA.

While I don't like it, I can't seem to get around the fact that the KRB has to be assigned post facto based on the "success" of the run. I would much prefer SD's mapping of the formula, but I don't think it stands up to the post-facto requirement.

As an example with SD's map:

4b. If KRB and Pancake both are No, then carrier still has a chance to find a little crease. Higher chance creasefound=Yes in these situations for those with high hole recognition.
5. If creasefound=No, then it's a low gain run.
6. If creasefound=Yes, then start looking at power inside, breakaway running, and elusiveness for potential big gains.

#6 roll for big gain could never happen in FOF. This is because once 4b has determined there is no KRB, and you cannot have a long gain without a KRB. In other words, if you got the big gain in #6, you then have to have a KRB, but it has already been decided there was no KRB in 4b.

Based on the post-facto requirement, MIJB and QS's maps still work. But I do like where QS is going with Rather than "key run blocks," perhaps this stat truly represents something more like "successful runs behind this player as key blocker."

[MrBigglesworth]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

After reading all of this, the biggest stumbling block I come across is the fact that an O-lineman who springs a RB for a 1-yard gain (for 1st down) gets a KRB, but an O-lineman who springs a RB for a 9-yard gain (on 2nd and long) does not. In real life, you would want the O-lineman who can consistently help his RB break off longer runs (bigger holes) than smaller ones, no? Yet in the FOF universe, with only the stats to look at, you may be going after the wrong guy in FA.

I don't know if I think this is true, but it's a possibility that things are more complex than we might initially think. For example, what's more important, the lineman that drives his DT into the end zone on third and goal for a TD, or the lineman that blocks the dime back for an 8 yard gain on third and 20? If the stats were recorded the way you are suggesting they be recorded, the long run would be more important, but the short run would be a much more impressive block.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by MrBigglesworth

I don't know if I think this is true, but it's a possibility that things are more complex than we might initially think. For example, what's more important, the lineman that drives his DT into the end zone on third and goal for a TD, or the lineman that blocks the dime back for an 8 yard gain on third and 20? If the stats were recorded the way you are suggesting they be recorded, the long run would be more important, but the short run would be a much more impressive block.

I'd agree with that somewhat, but what about the guy who blocks for a 5-yard gain on 1st and 10 (or an 8-yard gain on 1st and 16 like what I saw) and a guy who blocks for a 6-yard gain on 2nd and 7? In FOF, the first guy gets a KRB, the second guy doesn't. That would seem unfair in real life to say the former guy did a better job of blocking.

As for the shorter runs for 1st downs, the problem is that even a 1-yard run on 4th and 1 against a dime or prevent personnel will get a KRB. You assumed that the 8-yard gain on 3rd and 20 was against a dimeback, but as far as we've seen, the personnel and run expectancy does not factor into the KRB success chart in FOF. Thus in FOF, a 6-yard gain on 2nd and 7 against a 4-3 defense aggressively expecting the run is no KRB (although it would be an impressive job by the O-lineman), while a 1-yard gain on 2nd and 1 against a nickle defense expecting the pass would get a KRB (not all that impressive). As a result, I just don't see it as complex as you've suggested.

[dj_morton]

Good info!

[Celeval]

I've got no empirical data to back it up, but I've always had it as much more simplistic... similar, maybe, to the pass attempt. An offensive blocker is selected to have an opportunity, against one (or two) defenders. If the OL wins his check, KRB kicks in, and the run result comes up on a sliding chart, with the minimum being (5 yards or the first down), with no maximum. If the OL loses his check, the run result comes up on a sliding chart with the maximum of (first down yardage - 1). If the OL loses his check by a lot, the play is severely broken up with some other sliding chart of yardage. The breakway speed, hole rec, etc. all come into play in some sense as well, perhaps adjusting the curve of possible yardage within the restriction.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

I'd agree with that somewhat, but what about the guy who blocks for a 5-yard gain on 1st and 10 (or an 8-yard gain on 1st and 16 like what I saw) and a guy who blocks for a 6-yard gain on 2nd and 7? In FOF, the first guy gets a KRB, the second guy doesn't. That would seem unfair in real life to say the former guy did a better job of blocking.

But given the situations, would you rather have 2nd and 5 or 3rd and 1? I'd rather have 2nd and 5.

[Ben E Lou]

10 yards isn't the threshold. Here's a 3rd and 22 situation in IHOF today:

Originally Posted by Solevision

Tucker comes out in the I formation with two tight ends, the right side is strong.
The defense comes out in a 34 alignment and 2-deep bump-and-run coverage.
They are expecting the pass.
Shaun Duncan takes the snap from center.
He pitches the ball to R.J. Ellard.
Ellard is running inside the left tackle.
Ellard breaks a pair of tackles and continues.
He rushes for 11 yards.
Tackled by Outside Linebacker Hunter Northcott, and an assist from Defensive End Thomas Barnes.

11 yard gain, but no KRB.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

10 yards isn't the threshold. Here's a 3rd and 22 situation in IHOF today:



11 yard gain, but no KRB.

Somewhere from 12-17 then (17 yards on 2nd and 19 gave me a KRB). We know it's not percentage of distance to go because 6 yards on 2nd and 7 did not get a KRB.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

But given the situations, would you rather have 2nd and 5 or 3rd and 1? I'd rather have 2nd and 5.

Actually, I'd rather have a guy who can get me 6 tough yards on 2nd and 7. And since I have 4 downs, I am fine with 3rd and 1. But the key here is I think it's a close call. They're both valuable, which is why they shouldn't be treated differently.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by Celeval

I've got no empirical data to back it up, but I've always had it as much more simplistic... similar, maybe, to the pass attempt. An offensive blocker is selected to have an opportunity, against one (or two) defenders. If the OL wins his check, KRB kicks in, and the run result comes up on a sliding chart, with the minimum being (5 yards or the first down), with no maximum. If the OL loses his check, the run result comes up on a sliding chart with the maximum of (first down yardage - 1). If the OL loses his check by a lot, the play is severely broken up with some other sliding chart of yardage. The breakway speed, hole rec, etc. all come into play in some sense as well, perhaps adjusting the curve of possible yardage within the restriction.

This would fit into what we've seen in game. And I like it since it gets rid of the post facto KRB, which I really don't want to be true. In essence the KRB is more goal or sitatuation oriented. It essentially asks the player, can you get me that first down, that TD, or that 2nd and short? The O-lineman either hits the goal or not. Then the RB performance determines what happens in those limited parameters. If this is the case, even a stud RB cannot spring an important run without the help of a KRB from his O-line. Makes sense. As part of this, I would imagine that the probability of making a KRB goes up the easier the goal is.

[Warhammer]

Thinking about this, I really think that there is at some point a global calculation. Let's face it, there are plenty of teams that have absolutely great run defenses, even though they have individual players who aren't that great. Conversely, you have defenses that are mediocre against the run, but have individually great run stoppers. I have seen this in both RL and in FOF, I tend to have good run defenses, but not have any absolute studs in Run D.

Also, in regards to KRO, let's face it, each time there is a run, there are a number of blocks made. It isn't always the lead block that springs the run, sometimes it is a block made on the backside of a play on a player that is coming down the LOS from the backside of the play.

Something else we need to take into consideration, what about playcalling? I am sure playcalling factors into this. We also need to consider aggressiveness and play diagnosis.

[Warhammer]

In regards to play calling, my guess is that there is a general chart for each type of play call. Ag. pass vs. run. Pass vs. run run vs. run Ag. run vs. run, etc. This gives you the chart(s) to use.

The defense makes a reaction based upon the play diagnosis of the players, this can affect whether or not the incorrect play call is mitigated at all. Basically you have 11 guys, if the play is called correctly, the play diagnosis of the players gets a big bonus. Players make the check, and those that pass add their run defense to the play, etc.

Then you go through SkyDog's routine. The results of which can either lead to a DRM (die roll modifier) for the charts or the use of another chart.

[MrBigglesworth]

Originally Posted by Celeval

I've got no empirical data to back it up, but I've always had it as much more simplistic... similar, maybe, to the pass attempt. An offensive blocker is selected to have an opportunity, against one (or two) defenders. If the OL wins his check, KRB kicks in, and the run result comes up on a sliding chart, with the minimum being (5 yards or the first down), with no maximum. If the OL loses his check, the run result comes up on a sliding chart with the maximum of (first down yardage - 1). If the OL loses his check by a lot, the play is severely broken up with some other sliding chart of yardage. The breakway speed, hole rec, etc. all come into play in some sense as well, perhaps adjusting the curve of possible yardage within the restriction.

I also have no data, but my feeling from watching hundreds of FOF games is that when teams run the ball on third and 1, they get the first down a lot more than the average rate of key run blocks (which I think is like 25-30%), which doesn't fit with this theory.

[QuikSand]

For those struggling with this whole notion of running "success" here's the FO link to same:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ram...p?p=254&cat=11

A snippet:

* In general, a play counts as a "hit" if it gains 40% of yards on first down, 60% of yards on second down, and 100% of yards on third down.
* If the team is behind by more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 50%/65%/100%.
* If the team is ahead by any amount in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 30%/50%/100%.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by MrBigglesworth

I also have no data, but my feeling from watching hundreds of FOF games is that when teams run the ball on third and 1, they get the first down a lot more than the average rate of key run blocks (which I think is like 25-30%), which doesn't fit with this theory.

Completely agreed there.

[primelord]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

To me, this is the most frustrating piece of it. As it is, I'm starting to wonder how much you can use an individual player's KRB stats as a measure of his own performance... all indications point to this being very much a team stat, with individual credit apportioned in some rough way back to the players, but very much a function of a lot more than that one guy. An excellent back, or excellent OL colleagues, would certainly seem to boost any OL player's KRB numbers, it seems to me, and the converse is true as well.

I haven't made it all the way through this, but I kinf od think this should be a team stat. For example in real life football, on a run off the tackle a good RB is often going to be partially responsible for a "KRB" that gets credited to the T by knowing when to cut back inside of the tackle or bounce outside etc. In addition a good guard keeps the DT from pentrating and stopping the play in the backfield before the T even gets a shot at a KRB.

I know FO uses stats like ALY to try and seperate the RB from the line, but in general I usually view most run stats as the RB and his line produced these stats.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Originally Posted by MrBigglesworth

I also have no data, but my feeling from watching hundreds of FOF games is that when teams run the ball on third and 1, they get the first down a lot more than the average rate of key run blocks (which I think is like 25-30%), which doesn't fit with this theory.

Although there is likely a higher success rate of KRBs for 3rd and 1, Celeval's model may still work if you look at it in terms of the KRB probability changing with each down and distance situation (say, 4-5 general types). That is, it is easier under the formula for the O-lineman to get a KRB in 3rd and 1 instead of 1st and 10.

[MrBigglesworth]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

Although there is likely a higher success rate of KRBs for 3rd and 1, Celeval's model may still work if you look at it in terms of the KRB probability changing with each down and distance situation (say, 4-5 general types). That is, it is easier under the formula for the O-lineman to get a KRB in 3rd and 1 instead of 1st and 10.

I think that may work. Ok, this thread is kind of long and confusing, but what I think we have are the 'Pre Facto model' (where the KRB check is done first, and then the result of the play is determined) and the 'Post Facto Model' (where the result of the play is determined, and then the game looks to see if the result matches the conditions necessary for a KRB). How can we either disprove one or the other with info we have, or how can we design an experiment where one model will predict the correct results and the other will not? If we can't, ie if our observation of the game wouldn't change no matter what the correct theory was, then it really doesn't matter which one is correct.

For the team vs. individual theories, someone can run a test where one team has one good run blocker and four other crappy linemen, and another test where the team has five good run blockers. The skill of the RB could also be another variable, giving four separate trials.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

I agree that the 2nd part could be tested easily. Unfortunately, I don't see an easy way to disprove/prove the post facto or prefacto model.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

I'll interject another thought with the RBs 3rd down rushing ability.

The help file says that the skill measures "their third down running."
The csv file says that the skill is the "ability to gain yardage in third- and fourth-down and short situations."

If a KRB results in a 3rd down and short conversion everytime, what does that say about this skill. It would seem if the pre facto theory applied, this skill is not very useful at all. Again, bad news as far as I am concerned.

And what about the elusiveness rating?

The help file says it means the "ability to occasionally break long runs at the expense of sometimes getting caught behind the line of scrimmage."
The csv file says that it means "the ability to avoid getting caught behind the line of scrimmage."

Again, it would seem this rating alone could be the difference between a long run (requiring a KRB) and getting caught behind the line of scrimmage (not a KRB). So, this also would seem to cut against the pre facto theory.

Any thoughts about this?

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Ok, re-thinking the RB ability thoughts. The only way I see the pre facto theory apply is that the game must do a check on elusiveness and/or 3rd down rushing ability before the blocking check with the O-line. That would seem pretty counterintuitive and would require involving defender ratings before the blocking occurs. I'm not so sure the game would do it that way.

I am more and more leaning towards QS's theory that a KRB simply represents something more like "successful runs behind this player as key blocker."

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Vinatieri for Prez

But I do like where QS is going with Rather than "key run blocks," perhaps this stat truly represents something more like "successful runs behind this player as key blocker."

I'm starting to think this is exactly what's going on.
Go into the game and look at OL stats, the default view is key run block opportunities, not key run block, block%, sacks allowed, sacked% or OL%.

At least that would fit in with my "potential key run blocks" idea. Just that the potential key run block is in fact the "key run block opportunity".