Follow the bouncing ball - freak fumbles turning into TDs?

[QuikSand]

I am perfectly open to the notion that this is just the "streetlight effect" at work, and a few unlikely events become noticeable and appears to be happening more frequently than they are. However, when I mentioned this with a group of FOFers recently, almost everyone was recounting something similar happening for or to them in recent FOF games. So, I'll rasie it here.

In my last two MP games, I saw weird fumbles on kickoffs turn into touchdowns. One rowked to my advantage, one against me. And, as I mentioned, this doesn't *seem* to be as isolated a freak occurence as one would think.

Here is the log text from each of mine:

(4Q: 02:05) Floyd Dawley kicked off 66 yards from the HWK30. Ryan Anthony returned the ball 14 yards to the ACG18. Tackled by Ricky Ross. Ball was fumbled and recovered by ACG Tom Mueller for 82 yards and a TOUCHDOWN! Hawk Mountain 41, Atlantic City 40

(1Q: 02:46) Ricky Garcia kicked off 71 yards from the MER30. George Ellis returned the ball 92 yards to the MER09. Tackled by Paul Partin. Ball was fumbled and recovered by CHE Kent Fields for 9 yards and a TOUCHDOWN! Chesapeake 13, Mercury 10


In both cases, the returning team recovers a fumble, and then returns the fumble for a touchdown. It sounds (from other anecdotal reports) like this also happens a fair amount (maybe too often?) with fumbles recovered, especially by the offense, on pass playe, and maybe run plays as well.


So -- before adding this to the "issues' list, I'll tott this out. Anyone else seein this sort of things with a regularity that's just too high? Are fumble recoveries, especially by the offensive/returning team just turning into a free-for-all opportunity to go HOUSE?

[QuikSand]

From the same week in FOFL:

Toronto: Pro formation, with the second receiver in the slot, strength is left. The defense is in a 43 and weak-side man, otherwise cover-7 zone coverage, expecting the pass.
3-11-TOR43 (3Q: 05:10) Fred Gillespie pass completed to TE Marco Henn for 21 yards. Tackled by S Pete Foley. The receiver ran his route right over the middle of the field. Henn gained 4 yards after the catch. The ball was fumbled and recovered by TOR Marco Henn for 36 yards and a TOUCHDOWN! Bar Harbor 26, Toronto 20

[gstelmack]

There was a thread a while back about something similar, most notably the number of times the offense recovers a fumble and returns it for a TD. Not sure if there was a general consensus on whether or not it really happened too often, or if it was just something that stood out when it did.

[Kodos]

(1Q: 04:19) Myron Gomez kicked off 55 yards from the ROC30. Van Langford returned the ball 18 yards to the SYR33. Tackled by Amos Collins. Ball was fumbled and recovered by ROC Perry Clinton for 33 yards and a TOUCHDOWN! Rochester 13, Syracuse 7
(1Q: 04:19) Extra point by Myron Gomez was good. Rochester 14, Syracuse 7

This was from my IHOF game versus Syracuse yesterday. It didn't fit your pattern exactly, as the kicking team recovered the fumble for a touchdown. But I thought I would mention it anyway in case it is a phenomenon both ways.

[QuikSand]

In the recently-completed IHOF season (under FOF 2007), there were 30 fumbles returned for TDs. Superficially, it appears like there were more defensive than offensive players, but I haven't parsed out which might have happened on special teams.

I'll check the comparable stats from the last seasons in FOF 2004 for the same league.

[QuikSand]

Looks like 22 fumble return TDs in the last FOF 2004 season from the same league. Not a huge enough difference to be evidence of anything in itself.

[DolphinFan1]

I've had this happen a few times also in my games.

[Vince]

Pretty sure this happened to me in the GEFL Week 2 game (damn you Primelord ).

Boulder: Weak formation, strength is left. The defense is in a 43 and 1-deep, bump-and-run coverage, expecting the run.
1-10-BOU32 (2Q: 13:36) Billy Gray pass completed to WR Eldon Batts for 32 yards. Tackled by CB Justin Blake. Batts gained 8 yards after the catch. The ball was fumbled and recovered by BOU Eldon Batts for 36 yards and a TOUCHDOWN! Boulder 6, San Luis Obispo 0


(2Q: 13:36) Extra point by Chester Krcik was good. Boulder 7, San Luis Obispo 0

Nope, it was IHOF.

[gstelmack]

http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NF...r?sort_col_1=3

33 fumble recoveries for TDs in 2006 in the real NFL regular season. 24 in 2005.

Not sure if the breakdown is right of offense vs defense, or if they occur on the correct types of plays, but the total number is correct.

I suspect that if anything is wrong, there are too many offensive recoveries for TDs and not enough defensive recoveries for TDs, but I don't have the time to dig through the NFL stuff to see what the breakdown is.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Looks like 22 fumble return TDs in the last FOF 2004 season from the same league. Not a huge enough difference to be evidence of anything in itself.

Thats a 35% or so increase in the number of returns for TDs. Certainly enough to warrant doing further investigation.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

Thats a 35% or so increase in the number of returns for TDs. Certainly enough to warrant doing further investigation.

Not if you look at my 2005/2006 real NFL stats posted right before your post (24 -> 33 in NFL, 22 -> 30 in FOF). Seems like Jim is spot-on with the totals.

[Sgran]

I'm having a hard time remembering an offensive fumble scooped up by the offense and taken to the house (except by a punt returner who retrieves his own muff) in RL. Offensive players usually smother anything on the turf.

[MIJB#19]

Keep in mind that an increase of fumbles (we're all aware of that happening in FOF2007, right?) will likely come with an increase of recovery touchdowns too.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

Keep in mind that an increase of fumbles (we're all aware of that happening in FOF2007, right?) will likely come with an increase of recovery touchdowns too.

To clarify, I'm fairly certain that someone at IHOF did a quick study that strongly indicated that:

1. the fumble rate is significantly higher than in FOF2K4, and
2. the fumble rate is now extremely close to the NFL average.

It had been too low. Now it's accurate.

[Northwood_DK]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

To clarify, I'm fairly certain that someone at IHOF did a quick study that strongly indicated that:

1. the fumble rate is significantly higher than in FOF2K4, and
2. the fumble rate is now extremely close to the NFL average.

It had been too low. Now it's accurate.

True. Fumbles is up 0.25-0.30 pr game from FOF2004 but still a bit below the NFL average

http://www.fof-ihof.com/phpBB2/viewt...&highlight=nfl

http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...ad.php?t=57329